Sergey KakarekaAnna Malchykhina

Institute for Problems of Natural Resources Use & Ecology

Minsk, Belarus

7th JOINT UNECE TFEIP & EIONET Workshop on Emission Inventories and Projections

31 October - 2 November 2006, Thessaloniki, Greece

PM emission data for the NIS: PM emission data for the NIS: current statecurrent state

Presentation contains draft results of analysis of PM emission

data available now for some NIS countries made as a task of

national contribution “in-kind” of the Republic of Belarus

into EMEP for 2006.

Purpose:

- assessment of the quality (completeness, consistency,

transparency etc.) of PM emission data available for the

NIS, prioritization of sectors and determination of ways for

its improvement.

Data sets on emission analized:

1. Emission statistics (from National Reports on the State of

Environment, Statistical Yearbooks and other official

edition);

2. Official PM data reported to EMEP from EMEP database

(Webdap);

3. Expert estimates of EMEP (Webdap);

4. RAINS model estimates;

5. CEPMEIP dataset;

6. MSC-W by country reports.

 

 

Countries analyzed: Belarus, Moldova, the Ukraine, Russian Federation (the European part).

Years:2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

Methodology of analysis:А) Comparison of emission estimates:

by totals;by key sectors (SNAP 1);by years (trends);

 

 

B) Comparison with activity data

Data sources on activity: national statistics.

Compilation of analized data for PM national totals by countries

is shown on the charts below.

Explanation of notations on the charts:

Statistics – statistical data on emissions (generally for

stationary sources only; domestic sector and some others not

accounted);

Official – data reported to EMEP (Webdap);

Expert – emission estimates by EMEP (Webdap);

RAINS – estimation by RAINS model (for 2000 and 2005).

By the data EMEP database contains scarce official information on PM10 or PM2.5. Only for Moldova there is a whole set of PM10 data. For other NIS it available for 1-3 last years. Statistics do not contain it at all. So mainly TSP emission data can be used for in-deep analysis.

TSP official data available for most of years: 2000-2004 for Moldova, 2002-2004 for other countries. Generally it is rather smooth though some jumps present.Statistics available for all years except the European part of the Russian Federation for which mainly emission data for total Russia available. Emission on the European part can be estimated using known share of the European part of Russia in total emissions for 2003 (about 31%).

 

 

PM emission data for Belarus

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

 

 

PM emission data for the Ukraine

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100

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900

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

To compare expert and official estimates we can accept that

roughly PM10 comprises 50-60% of TSP.

Expert estimates and RAINS data are generally higher then

official and statistical. Thus for Belarus expert estimates are

higher than official (about 20%). For Moldova expert emissions

for 2000-2001 are higher than for 2002-2003 7-8 times. For

2000-2001 they are closer to official and close to RAINS, for

2002-2003 – to statistics and differ from RAINS.

For the European part of Russia official emission values in 2004

– 1030 thous. tones (by statistics – 830.8 thous. tones). Expert

estimates for 2003 – 1351.9 thous. tones PM10, close to RAINS

values of emission.

For testing of probable reasons of detected differences emission

data by key sectors was analized and available production

statistical data was used.

Differences of classificators should be taken into account.

Thus, in the NIS statistics Power Industry emission includes

not only emission from fuel combustion, but also

technological emissions. Technological and combustion

emissions can hardly be separated for other key sectors

(Ferrous, Non-Ferrous, Building Materials, Communal etc.).

Analysis of SNAP sectors emission data have revealed

significant differences between estimates.

 

 

PM emission data for SNAP1 sector of Belarus

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14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

Thus expert estimates of SNAP1 emissions for Belarus are

higher than statistical about 100 times while taking into account

that Power Industry in Belarus practically do not utilize solid

fuels.

For the Ukraine SNAP1 emissions by expert estimates compared

to statistics looks rather low taking into account that most of coal

in the Ukraine is combusted in Power Industry.

For the whole territory of the Russian Federation about 35% of

total dust is emitted by power plants (965.6 thous. tones in 2004).

It should be expected that in the European part of Russia 150-250

thous. tones dust maybe emitted by Energy sector; according to

expert estimates for 2003 50.6 thous. tones PM10 was emitted in

this sector in EMEP part of Russia.

 

 

PM emission data for SNAP1 sector of the Ukraine

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250

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450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

Similar analysis was made for other key sectors.

Conclusions:

- progress was made last years in PM emission inventory

improvement for NIS region; a few datasets on PM emission

for the NIS are available now (statistics, official, expert),

some of them include data on PM10 and PM2.5;

- all datasets are obtained by different methodologies;

- determination of the quality of dataset needs a clarification

of requirements to emission data;

- application of traditional EMEP criteria to all PM emission

datasets (completeness, accuracy, consistency, transparency et al.)

is useful; no one now can be considered as fully compliant with all

these requirements;

- even not fully compliant emission estimates are useful if based on

a known methodology;

- emission estimates should be validated by independent methods;

- by the date for the NIS TSP emission data is of the best quality,

thus it is important to collect TSP emission data in EMEP database

in view of verification purposes of PM10 and PM2.5 data.

- prioritization between totals and sectors estimates is necessary:

estimates can coincide in total emission values but differ

significantly in sector estimates sometime only because put the

same activity into different classes;

- estimates should be made for natural classes - for which a

statistics can be collected; application of detailed artificial

classification schemes do not led to the growth of the quality of

estimates;

- should be expected that uncertainty of estimates is growing

from top to down; this is a specific feature of top-down approach

while for bottom-up should be expected backward tendency;

- key problem in inventory improvement in the NIS: lack of

necessary statistical information especially for mobile sources;

- emission factors are results of a certain emission inventory

(emissions divided consumption), after that they are used in

another inventory. So default emission factors which are planned

for deriving national totals can be attributed from national

emission inventory in other country.

Proposals for PM emission inventory improvement:

- guidelines or courses on the sources of statistical data and its

transformation before application in emission inventory will be

useful;

- emission factors can be derived from best quality emission

inventory data and included in the Guidebook as default for

certain cases;

- sectors of priority improvement by regions taking into

consideration input in total emissions and level of ucertainty;

- regular intercomparison of emission estimates;

- training courses in inventory tools like COPERT, RAINS,

CEPMEIP etc.

Thank you for your attention!

 

 

PM emission data for Moldova

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

 

 

PM emission data for SNAP1 sector of Moldova

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

 

 

PM emission data for the Russian Federation (European part)

0

500

1000

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2000

2500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10

 

 

PM emission data for the Russian Federation (European part)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

tho

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s Statistical TSP

Official TSP

Official PM10

Expert PM10

RAINS TSP

RAINS PM10