European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol

revision

Martin Adams

Air and Climate Change ProgrammeEuropean Environment Agency

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Planned time schedule - TFIAMPlanned time schedule - TFIAM

TFIAM2010Feb: Baseline proposalMay: Analyses of targets optionsOct: Sensitivity analysis

incl. climate forcing

2011Jan/Feb: Scenario runsMay: Final runsOct: Report

WGSR2010Apr: Baseline

acceptedSept: Guidance on targets

Dec(EB): Guidance on targets

2011 April: Draft ProtocolSept: Final ProtocolDec(EB): Protocol adopted

R. Maas. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Open questions and uncertainties

• The future climate policy? – eg EU: the current 20% or a 30% reduction target? (late May/early June, European Commission communication on the 30% option)

• What will be the effect of the economic crisis?

1. PRIMES 2009 includes the economic crisis, current climate/energy measures legislation 2009. But double-sip recession?

2. 12 national baseline projections have been submitted

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Data sources of national projections: energy

National scenarios IEA WEO 2009 PRIMES 2008 C&E (NEC report #6)

Austria (transport only)

Albania Belgium Latvia

Croatia Belarus Bulgaria Lithuania

Czech Republic Bosnia-H. Cyprus Luxembourg

Denmark Moldova Estonia Malta

Finland Russia France Poland

Greece Serbia Germany Romania

Ireland Ukraine Hungary Slovakia

Italy Turkey Slovenia

Netherlands FYROM (PRIMES2009)

Norway

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Data sources national projections: Agriculture

National scenarios

FAO outlook 2003

CAPRI 2009 projections

Austria Belarus Belgium Latvia

Croatia Moldova Bulgaria Lithuania

Finland Russia Cyprus Luxembourg

Ireland Turkey Czech Republic Malta

Italy Ukraine Denmark Norway

Netherlands Estonia Poland

Romania France Slovenia

Slovakia Germany Portugal

Spain Hungary

Sweden Greece

Switzerland

UKAmann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

TFIAM’s Baseline considerations

• Baseline assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, but can also affect the distribution of efforts.

• National baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy.

• Further efforts to improve the available baselines would not reduce basic uncertainties in future economic developments and climate and energy policies, but only delay the revision of the Protocol.

• The PRIMES 2009 baseline provides a coherent perspective comprising current legislation etc, although some countries have different expectations on future national energy and climate policies.

• Still the PRIMES 2009 baseline would offer a more equal starting point for defining further measures than the national baselines.

R. Maas, 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and 2020

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

CZ

RE

DEN

M

ES

TO

GR

EE

IRE

L

ITA

L

NETH

NO

RW

SPA

I

SW

ED

SW

IT

UN

KI

GD

P2

02

0 r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

5

C&E2008 National PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK

Oil p

rice a

ssu

med

for

20

20

(U

S-$

/b

arr

el)

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Comparison of 2020 carbon prices assumed National scenario vs. PRIMES C&E package

0

10

20

30

40

50

CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK

Carb

on

pri

ce (

€/t

CO

2)

National scenario PRIMES C&E package

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Baseline emissions projections for 2020PROVISIONAL RESULTS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

EU Non-EU

EU Non-EU

EU Non-EU

EU Non-EU

EU Non-EU

SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM2.5

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

2020 National 2020 PRIMES

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Baseline emission projections for 2020SO2 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BH BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BG BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Baseline emission projections for 2020NOx PROVISIONAL RESULTS

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120%

AT

BE

BU

CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BG BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Baseline emission projections for 2020NH3 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

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100%

120%

140%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BH BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DK EE FI FR DE

GR

HU IE IT LV LT LU MT

NL

PL

PT

RO

SK SL

ES

SE

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BY

BH

CR

MK M

RU

RS

TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Baseline emission projections for 2020VOC PROVISIONAL RESULTS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BU

CY

CZ

DK EE FI FR DE

GR

HU IE IT LV LT LU MT

NL

PL

PT

RO

SK SL

ES

SE

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BY

BH

CR

MK M

RU

RS

TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BH BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Baseline emission projections for 2020PM2.5 PROVISIONAL RESULTS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BH BY

CR

MD

MK

RS

RU TK

UA

Em

issio

ns r

ela

tive t

o 2

00

0

National projection PRIMES2009

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

IMPACTS Loss in statistical life expectancyPROVISIONAL RESULTS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14A

TB

EB

G CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV MT

NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

NO

CH AL

BY

BH

CR

MK M

RU

RS

UA

Loss in

sta

tisti

cal life

exp

ecta

ncy (

mon

ths)

2000 National PRIMES

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

IMPACTS Excess of CL for acidification in forest soils PROVISIONAL RESULTS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AT

BE

BG CY

CZ

DE

DK EE

ES FI FR GR

HU IE IT LT LU LV NL

PL

PT

RO SE

SK SL

UK

EU

CH

NO AL

BH BY

CR M

MK

RS

RU

UA

Fore

st

are

a w

here

CL(a

cid

) are

exceed

ed

2000 National PRIMES

Amann et al. 2010.

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

WGSR recommendations

• For the baseline Parties agreed to use Primes2009 for all countries (if available) & Capri agriculture for the baseline. • IEA/FAO data would be used for others eg EECCA countries. (NO, CH – national projections) • National projections supplemented with PRIMES2008 will be used to provide a higher-growth scenario/sensitivity run.• Additional Primes policy scenarios (eg 30% GHG, 20%

renewables etc) will inform the later scenario work.

Meeting report www.unece.org/env/lrtap/WorkingGroups/wgs/docs46th%20session.htm

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

Other issues

TFIAM’s 2010-2011 workplan also includes:• Analyse further how uncertainties could be reflected in policy through flexibility mechanisms• Target setting options • Not only focus on 2020, but to make full use of the 2030 data provided by PRIMES 2009 and the World Energy Outlook

Next meeting 17-19 May, Dublin

European Environment Agency11th Joint EIONET/TFEIP meeting, 10-11 May 2010, Larnaca

References

M. Amann, J. Borken, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont. Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios.Working Group on Strategies, Geneva, April 12-15, 2010

R. Maas. Report to WGSR from Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 37th meeting (Geneva, 22−24 February 2010)

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam