PowerPoint Presentation

Region 13 Education Service Center

December 11, 2013

Austin, TexasTexas Demographic Characteristics and Trends and Education1Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Growing States, 2000-201022000Population*2010Population*NumericalChange2000-2010PercentChange2000-2010United States 281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7%Texas20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6%California33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0%Florida15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6%Georgia8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3%North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic populationTexas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.2 Percent Change Due toYear*PopulationNumericalChangePercentChangeNaturalIncreaseNetMigration19507,711,194--------19609,579,6771,868,48324.293.916.09197011,196,7301,617,05316.986.7413.26198014,229,1913,032,46127.141.5858.42199016,986,5102,757,31919.965.8534.15200020,851,8203,865,31022.849.6550.35201025,145,5614,293,74120.654.9445.06201226,059,203 913,6423.652.0547.95* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-20123The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors. Between 2010 and 2012, Texas growth continues, but appears to have slowed some between 2011 and 2012. 3Total Estimated Population by County, 20124Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population EstimatesAlong and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)

The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.4Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 20105Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

79 counties lost population over the decade175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.

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Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 20126Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage. 96 counties lost population over the two year period

Of counties that lost population90% had net out migration47% had natural declinePopulation change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso county. Overall, 175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.

6The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 20127Percent Increase1.Midland, Texas4.62.Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.73.Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.3.64.The Villages, Fla.3.45.Odessa, Texas3.46.Jacksonville, N.C.3.37.Austin-Round Rock, Texas3.08.Casper, Wyo.3.09.Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.910.Manhattan, Kan.2.8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012Eight Texas counties were among the top largest growth counties in the country. Harris country grew more than any other county in the country.

7The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 20128NumericIncrease1.Harris, Texas80,0052.Los Angeles, Calif.73,7643.Maricopa, Ariz.73,6444.Dallas, Texas45,8275.San Diego, Calif.38,8806.King, Wash.35,8387.Travis, Texas34,3818.Orange, Calif.34,0179.Tarrant, Texas32,99710.Clark, Nev.32,833Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013Eight Texas counties were among the top largest growth counties in the country. Harris country grew more than any other county in the country.

8Estimated domestic migration by county, 2000-20109Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.

9Estimated international migration by county, 2000-2010Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center10

This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.

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Eagle Ford Shale Oil, Gas, and Drilling13

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 201014Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the baby boom generation. Largely the result of lower fertility and less net in-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the non-Hispanic white population.14Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 201015Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend. Note the inverted pyramid for the non-Hispanic White population and the presence of the baby boom while the Hispanic and African American population pyramids are characterized with wider bases (the young) relative to the peak (the old).15Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 201016Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend. Note the inverted pyramid for the non-Hispanic White population and the presence of the baby boom while the Hispanic and African American population pyramids are characterized with wider bases (the young) relative to the peak (the old).16Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 201017Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend. Note the inverted pyramid for the non-Hispanic White population and the presence of the baby boom while the Hispanic and African American population pyramids are characterized with wider bases (the young) relative to the peak (the old).17Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011Level of Educational AttainmentPercent of persons aged 25 years and olderState RankingHigh school diploma or equivalency or greater81.1%48/49/50 (tied with CA and MS)Bachelors or greater26.4%2918Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 200919Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Less Than High SchoolCollege and GreaterPercent of persons aged 25 years and older with a high school degree or higher, Texas, 2006-2011DRAFT for COMMENT - Please DO NOT DISTRIBUTETrends in Educational Attainment in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and AboveSource: U.S. Census Bureau. ACS 1-Yr PUMS 2001 to 2010DRAFT for COMMENT - Please DO NOT DISTRIBUTE21Percent of Population with High School Degrees or Higher2010 and 2030

22Median Household Income, Region 13 Census Tracts, 2009-201123

Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Sample, 2009-2011

Percent who speak a language other than English at home, ages 5 and older, Region 13 Census Tracts, 2009-201124Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Sample, 2009-2011

Percent with high school or higher degree, ages 25 and older, Region 13 Census Tracts, 2009-201125Source: U..S Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year Sample, 2009-2011

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-205026Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-205027Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration ScenarioProjected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-205028Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-205029

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Teen Birth Rate by State, 201030Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and PreventionRank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-191Mississippi552New Mexico52.93Arkansas52.54Texas52.25Oklahoma50.46Louisiana47.77Kentucky46.28District of Columbia45.49West Virginia44.810Alabama43.6Texas had the 3rd highest teen birth rate in 2006.

30 Of all births to females under 20 years of age, percent by race/ethnicity, 2011 31Mother's race/ethnicity1TexasUnited StatesNon-Hispanic white21%39%Non-Hispanic black14%24%American Indian or Alaska Native2,30%2%Asian or Pacific Islander2,31%2%Hispanic464%33%http://www.hhs.gov/ash/oah/adolescent-health-topics/reproductive-health/states/tx.html1 Includes all births, including those with Hispanic origin not stated and not shown separately.2 Race and Hispanic origin are reported separately on birth certificates. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Race categories are consistent with the 1977 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) standards.3 Includes persons of Hispanic origin according to mothers reported race.4 Includes all persons of Hispanic origin of any race.Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

32Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections 32

Demographics and Destiny33

Texas is growing with more people being added than in any other state we added 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress.

Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.

Texas is becoming more diverse much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.

33Contact Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

34Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.

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