demographic update - fulshear, texas dev/demographic reports... · demographic characteristics 4...

City of FulshearDemographic Update

Summer 2017

Numeric Change in Student Enrollment

Fall 2015 to Fall 2016

PEIMS enrollment

Population and Survey Analysts2Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update

Population and Survey Analysts

Percent Change in Student Enrollment

Fall 2015 to Fall 2016

PEIMS enrollment

3Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update

Demographic Characteristics

Population and Survey Analysts4

35.2Median AgeHouston Metro 34.1

58.7%

Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Houston Metro30.60%

Median Household Income

$175,990Houston Metro $61,465

27.2%

PopulationAges 5–17

Houston Metro 20%

37.4Mean Travel Time to Work Houston Metro30.2 minutes

City of Fulshear

Summer 2017 City of Fulshear Demographic Update

Monthly Employment ChangeHouston Metro, Seasonally Adjusted


-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Jun-

17

JOBS

MONTH

Employment Change

Source: Texas Workforce Commission


Housing Growth


Through 2021

Tamarron = 1,411 housing occupancies projected

Jordan Ranch = 910 Cross Creek = 993 310 (31%) of which will be age-restricted

Housing Growth


Post-2021 through 2026

Tamarron and Jordan Ranch continue to dominate the market with 1,417 and 1,450 additional SF units, respectively.

Highland Management dev. ramps up Harrison Tracts along Westpark Tollway LID 21 is in the planning stage

4,626 acres known as Foster Farms ~3,150 developable acres exists behind future levee

Most Active Residential DevelopmentsJune 2017 – Oct. 2026


SINGLEFAMILY

MULTI-FAMILY

Five Largest Single-Family Developments 2016-2021 2021-2026 2016-2026Tamarron 1,411 1,417 2,828 Jordan Ranch 910 1,450 2,360 Cross Creek Ranch 993 1,012 2,005 Foster Farms 120 1,310 1,430 Harrison Interests Tract 100 960 1,060 Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies

6,531 12,352 18,883

Five Largest Multi-Family Developments 2016-2021 2021-2026 2016-2026Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20) 250 450 700Jordan Ranch MF 60 400 460Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek) 380 0 380Fulshear Lakes 75 300 375Potential MF in PU B03 25 300 325Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies

940 1,625 2,565

Sheet1

Five Largest Single-Family Developments2016-20212021-20262016-2026

Tamarron1,4111,4172,828

Jordan Ranch9101,4502,360

Cross Creek Ranch9931,0122,005

Foster Farms1201,3101,430

Harrison Interests Tract1009601,060

Total Projected New Single-Family Occupancies6,53112,35218,883

Sheet1

Five Largest Multi-Family Developments2016-20212021-20262016-2026

Cross Creek Ranch (PU H19/H20)250450700

Jordan Ranch MF60400460

Park Lane Fulshear (Cross Creek)3800380

Fulshear Lakes75300375

Potential MF in PU B0325300325

Total Projected New Multi-Family Occupancies9401,6252,565

Projected New Housing Occupancies June 2017 – Oct. 2026


Jan 2017-Oct 2017 703 0 0 33 736Oct 2017-Oct 2018 968 140 0 71 1,179Oct 2018-Oct 2019 1,289 260 50 98 1,697Oct 2019-Oct 2020 1,476 280 80 110 1,946Oct 2020-Oct 2021 1,678 260 125 105 2,168Oct 2021-Oct 2022 1,990 225 150 115 2,480Oct 2022-Oct 2023 2,206 250 175 111 2,742Oct 2023-Oct 2024 2,401 400 170 93 3,064Oct 2024-Oct 2025 2,653 375 205 77 3,310Oct 2025-Oct 2026 2,678 375 215 28 3,296

Jan 2017-Oct 2021 6,114 940 255 417 7,726Oct 2021-Oct 2026 11,928 1,625 915 424 14,892Jan 2017-Oct 2026 18,042 2,565 1,170 841 22,618

Grand TotalSingle Family Multi-Family Mixed Use /

CondoAge-Restricted


Sheet1

Single FamilyMulti-Family Mixed Use / CondoAge-RestrictedManufactured HousingGrand Total

Jan 2017-Oct 201770300330736

Oct 2017-Oct 201896814007101,179

Oct 2018-Oct 20191,289260509801,697

Oct 2019-Oct 20201,4762808011001,946

Oct 2020-Oct 20211,67826012510502,168

Oct 2021-Oct 20221,99022515011502,480

Oct 2022-Oct 20232,20625017511102,742

Oct 2023-Oct 20242,4014001709303,064

Oct 2024-Oct 20252,6533752057703,310

Oct 2025-Oct 20262,6783752152803,296

Jan 2017-Oct 20216,11494025541707,726

Oct 2021-Oct 202611,9281,625915424014,892

Jan 2017-Oct 202618,0422,5651,170841022,618


ProjectedNew HousingOccupancies

Jan. 2017–Oct. 2018




Jan. 2017–Oct. 2021




Oct. 2021–Oct. 2026



Estimated Household

Size

2016


Typical Household Size


Housing Type Typical Household Size

Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom

1.55–1.85

Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom

1.85–2.25

Single-Family, Family Oriented

3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak

Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+

1.65–1.80

Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate

2.65–2.85


Sheet1

Housing TypeTypical Household Size

Multi-Family, majority 1-bedroom1.55–1.85

Multi-Family, majority 2+ bedroom1.85–2.25

Single-Family, Family Oriented3.15–3.30 initially; 3.30–3.50 at peak

Single-Family, Age-Restricted 55+1.65–1.80

Single-Family, Acreage/Rural Estate2.65–2.85

Students per Occupied Homeby School District


Katy ISD = 0.72 overall

Cinco Ranch/Cross Creek = 0.90 to 1.40

Lamar CISD = 0.58 overall

Cross Creek = 0.10 to 0.25 Tamarron /Fulbrook on F.C.= 0.4 to 0.55 Lakes of Bella Terra = 0.3 to 0.55

Recent Flood Events


Brazos River Levee jitters—Foster Farms, etc.

Barker Reservoir – south of Katy Frwy. Future buyouts in KISD/SBISD/HISD possible;

these could have a domino effect, increasing housing demand in Fulshear 4,600 flooded SF & MF units east of dam 7,500 affected SF homes west of dam

2011 2016 2021 2026

Three Scenarios of GrowthPo

pula

tion

of C

ity &

ETJ

79,873

95,848

55,911


20,795


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Low

Population 23,138 26,312 30,210 34,313 37,837 41,538 44,651 47,540 52,310

% Growth 0.11 0.14 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.10

Growth 2,343 3,174 3,898 4,103 3,524 3,701 3,113 2,889 4,770Moderate

Population 23,254 26,849 31,634 36,896 42,513 48,868 55,814 63,386 71,658

% Growth 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13

Growth 2,459 3,595 4,785 5,262 5,617 6,355 6,946 7,572 8,272High

Population 23,370 27,252 32,583 38,741 45,489 54,243 63,070 72,894 85,273

% Growth 0.12 0.17 0.20 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.17

Growth 2,575 3,882 5,331 6,158 6,748 8,754 8,827 9,824 12,379

Three Scenarios of Growth


Sheet1

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Low

Population2079523,13826,31230,21034,31337,83741,53844,65147,54052,31055,911

% Growth0.110.140.150.140.100.100.070.060.102.74

Growth2,3433,1743,8984,1033,5243,7013,1132,8894,770214

Moderate

Population2079523,25426,84931,63436,89642,51348,86855,81463,38671,65879,873

% Growth0.120.150.180.170.150.150.140.140.134.43

Growth2,4593,5954,7855,2625,6176,3556,9467,5728,272392

High

Population2079523,37027,25232,58338,74145,48954,24363,07072,89485,27395,848

% Growth0.120.170.200.190.170.190.160.160.176.22

Growth2,5753,8825,3316,1586,7488,7548,8279,82412,379611

Population Projections by Community


Community 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Cross Creek Ranch 8,002 9,473 11,388 13,208 14,651 15,936 16,822 17,536 18,256 18,881

Downtown Area (A03, B02) 305 305 318 354 457 596 789 1,053 1,434 1,866

Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek 765 965 1,193 1,417 1,653 1,904 2,170 2,437 2,673 2,840

Fulshear Run 39 104 264 421 587 671 742 764 801 805

Churchill Farms 1,782 1,800 1,818 1,836 1,854 1,873 1,892 1,911 1,930 1,949

Firethorne 8,699 9,162 9,642 10,070 10,432 10,632 10,783 10,932 11,089 11,254

Foster Farms 0 0 16 142 380 892 1,618 2,471 3,483 4,620

Fulbrook 686 708 730 751 777 803 829 860 890 920

Fulshear Farms 0 0 84 262 625 1,199 1,935 2,874 3,923 4,989

Fulshear Lakes 0 104 311 629 1,058 1,593 2,156 2,824 3,519 4,208

Harrison Interests Tract 0 0 0 90 381 833 1,522 2,336 3,339 4,349

Jordan Ranch 240 699 1,372 2,127 2,933 3,834 4,794 5,895 6,994 8,093

Tamarron 1,914 2,706 3,708 4,793 5,887 7,120 8,466 9,774 11,000 12,051

CITY LIMITS

ETJ

Sheet1

Community2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

CITY LIMITSCross Creek Ranch8,0029,47311,38813,20814,65115,93616,82217,53618,25618,881

Downtown Area (A03, B02)3053053183544575967891,0531,4341,866

Fulbrook on Fulshear Creek7659651,1931,4171,6531,9042,1702,4372,6732,840

Fulshear Run39104264421587671742764801805

ETJChurchill Farms1,7821,8001,8181,8361,8541,8731,8921,9111,9301,949

Firethorne8,6999,1629,64210,07010,43210,63210,78310,93211,08911,254

Foster Farms00161423808921,6182,4713,4834,620

Fulbrook686708730751777803829860890920

Fulshear Farms00842626251,1991,9352,8743,9234,989

Fulshear Lakes01043116291,0581,5932,1562,8243,5194,208

Harrison Interests Tract000903818331,5222,3363,3394,349

Jordan Ranch2406991,3722,1272,9333,8344,7945,8956,9948,093

Tamarron1,9142,7063,7084,7935,8877,1208,4669,77411,00012,051

Projected Population by Jurisdiction


Area Oct. 2016 Oct. 2018 Oct. 2020 Oct. 2022 Oct. 2024 Oct. 2026

City 8,521 11,174 15,758 19,526 22,325 25,060

ETJ 12,274 15,675 21,138 29,342 41,061 54,813

City + ETJ 20,795 26,849 36,896 48,868 63,386 79,873

Outside ETJ 819 897 1,323 2,441 4,136 6,060

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS

District 1 1,628 2,794 5,228 7,835 10,411 12,963

District 2 2,095 2,321 2,958 3,458 3,490 3,518

District 3 1,641 2,751 4,140 4,686 4,757 4,789

District 4 1,633 1,693 1,756 1,822 1,890 1,960

District 5 1,524 1,615 1,676 1,725 1,777 1,830

Sheet1

AreaPop 2010LCISD Fall CorrectionHousing Count 2016Column1Oct. 2016Household Size 2016 (wrong)Established Neighborhood Growth 17-21Established Neighborhood Growth 22-26Oct. 2017Oct. 2018Oct. 2019Oct. 2020Oct. 2021Oct. 2022Oct. 2023Oct. 2024Oct. 2025Oct. 2026

City2,9298,5219,43811,17413,49815,75817,72919,52620,99822,32523,76625,060

ETJ4,11812,27413,81615,67518,13621,13824,78429,34234,81641,06147,89254,813

City + ETJ20,79523,25426,84931,63436,89642,51348,86855,81463,38671,65879,873

Outside ETJ3788198468971,0581,3231,7682,4413,2124,1365,0896,060

SINGLE MEMBER DISTRICTS

District 11,62816.690.0050.0102,0832,7943,9295,2286,5367,8359,14810,41111,76812,963

District 22,09512.480.0200.0352,2122,3212,6112,9583,2593,4583,4863,4903,5013,518

District 31,64113.550.0250.0351,9172,7513,5804,1404,4454,6864,7574,7574,7704,789

District 41,6339.870.0550.0551,6631,6931,7241,7561,7891,8221,8561,8901,9241,960

District 51,5249.920.0500.0501,5631,6151,6541,6761,7001,7251,7511,7771,8031,830


EstimatedPopulation by Planning

UnitOct. 2016



ProjectedPopulation by Planning

UnitOct. 2021



ProjectedPopulation by Single Member

District

Oct. 2020


City of FulshearDemographic Update

Summer 2017

City of FulshearNumeric Change in Student Enrollment��Fall 2015 to �Fall 2016Percent Change in Student Enrollment��Fall 2015 to �Fall 2016Demographic CharacteristicsSlide Number 5Housing GrowthHousing GrowthMost Active Residential Developments�June 2017 – Oct. 2026Projected New Housing Occupancies �June 2017 – Oct. 2026Projected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesProjected�New Housing�OccupanciesEstimated Household SizeTypical Household SizeStudents per Occupied Home� by School DistrictRecent Flood EventsThree Scenarios of GrowthThree Scenarios of GrowthPopulation Projections by CommunityProjected Population by JurisdictionEstimated�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Planning UnitProjected�Population by Single Member DistrictCity of Fulshear

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