texas demographic trends & characteristics
TRANSCRIPT
Texas Demographic Trends & Characteristics
Office of the Texas Governor
Advisory Council on Cultural Affairs
Austin, TXJanuary 31, 2020
@TexasDemography
Texas is experiencing significant growth.
Population Growth of Select States, 2000‐2019
3
2000Population
2010Population
2019 Population
NumericChange
2010‐2019
PercentChange
2010‐2019
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 32,823,9523 19,481,418 6.3%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 28,995,881 3,849,790 15.3%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 39,512,223 2,257,704 6.1%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 21,477,737 2,673,173 14.2%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 10,617,423 928,694 9.6%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2019 Population Estimates.
4
Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019.
• About 1,006 people per day added to our population.
• About 483 persons per day from natural increase (more births than deaths)
• About 523 per day from net migration (178 international and 345 domestic migrants per day).
Natural Increase48%Domestic
Migration34%
International Migration
18%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
Estimates of Components of Population Change, Texas, 2011‐2019
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
213,651 208,964 205,795 213,541 214,380 212,021 209,690 190,951 175,878
70,535 76,954 82,44995,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
117,615145,513
110,614
163,160174,200
125,80079,163
82,569
125,660
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
152 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 4,698,619
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2018
7
96 counties lost population over the 8 year period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
Freestone
ComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
g-2,376 - 0
1 - 5,000
5,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 605,431
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2018
8Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Brown
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
GoliadAtascosa
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Willacy
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
DeWitt
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
-16% - -5%
-4% - 0%
1% - 14%
15% - 27%
28% - 85%
Texas continues to diversify.
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2010 and 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018 Population Estimates 11
NH White, 45%
NH Black, 12%
NH Asian, 4%
NH Other, 2%
Hispanic, 38%
2010
White, NH42%
Black, NH12%
Asian, NH5%
Other, NH2%
Hispanic40%
2018
484,211 541,760 1,907,928 473,193 149,192
13.6% 15.2%
53.6%
13.3%
4.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity to Total Population Change, 2010 to 2018
Total Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 1990‐2017
11
2.25
1.922.1
1.85
1.71
2.99
2.142.39
1.83
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2010 2013 2017
Texas Replacement TFR NH White Hispanic NH Black
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics Report
Place of Birth for the Foreign Born Population, Texas, 2018
Total Foreign Born Population 4,928,025
Latin America 3,276,400
Mexico 2,505,720
Central America Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,1 Guatemala,3 Honduras,2Nicaragua, Panama 474,967
South America Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,1 Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela2 182,179
Caribbean Bahamas, Barbados, Cuba,1 Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies
113,534
Asia 1,129,111
South Central Asia Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India,1 Iran, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan 440,731
South Eastern Asia Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Burma, Philippines,2Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam1 357,359
Eastern Asia China,1 Hong Kong, Taiwan,3 Japan, Korea2 233,578
Western Asia Iraq,1 Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon,2 Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, Turkey,3 Armenia 92,090
12Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
13
Annual Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005‐2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year PUMS
44.1%
50.6%
69.4%
35.8%
33.0%
17.3%
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
13.1%
9.1%
5.5%
2015
2010
2005
Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other
Estimated number of international migrants to Texas
101,588
77,702
98,194
Texas is young, but aging.
2010 2017 2018Numeric Change,
2010‐2018
NumericChange,
2017‐2018
Percent Change,
2010‐2018
Percent Change,
2017‐2018
Under 18 6,865,824 7,365,879 7,398,099 532,275 32,220 7.75% 0.44%
18 to 24 2,572,969 2,775,029 2,796,079 223,110 21,050 8.67% 0.76%
18 to 64 15,677,851 17,493,434 17,701,426 2,023,575 207,992 12.91% 1.19%
65 plus 2,601,886 3,463,404 3,602,320 1,000,434 138,916 38.45% 4.01%
85 plus 305,179 391,668 400,499 95,320 8,831 31.23% 2.25%
Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010, 2017, 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates
Race‐Ethnicity Composition by Age Group, 2010 to 2018, Texas
16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018
Under 18 18 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 plus
Millions Hispanic
NH OtherNH AsianNH BlackNH White
Annual Numeric Change in Population 18 to 24, Texas, 2010‐2017
17
‐20,000
‐10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian Two or More RacesSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
Texas Veterans
Texas Veterans, 2018
Estimate Percent
Veterans 1,435,787 6.8%
Gulf War (9/2001 or later) 396,060 27.6%
Gulf War (8/1990 to 8/2001) 362,718 25.3%
Vietnam 471,690 32.9%
Korean War 82,304 5.7%
World War II 23,940 1.7%
Male 1,282,166 89.3%
Female 153,621 10.7%
White, NH 927,843 64.6%
Hispanic 264,104 18.4%
Black 197,302 13.7%
High School 319,335 22.6%
Some College 567,854 40.2%
BA and above 453,375 32.1%
Disability 411,526 29.2%19Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates, 2018
Texas Socioeconomic Indicators
College and Graduate Enrollment, Texas, 2007‐2017
21
1,276
1,546 1,530
228283 321
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Thou
sand
s
Enrolled in college, undergrad Enrolled in graduate schoolSource: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates, 2007‐2017
College and Graduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2008‐2017
22
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hispanic NH White Black Asian
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates, 2008‐2017
Educational Attainment, Texas, 2007 and 2017
23
23.8%
31.0%
26.9%
31.6%
27.6% 29.0%
19.0%
27.0%25.2%
29.6%
2007 2017
Percent BA by Age Group
25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65 plus Total
33.3%
38.6%
18.0%
24.2%
10.7%14.5%
52.8%
59.2%
2007 2017
Percent BA by Race/Ethnicity
White, NH Black Hispanic AsianSource: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1‐Year Estimates, 2007, 2017
Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2018
24Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
High School Degree and above
Bachelor’s Degree and above
84%
67%
94%90% 88%
30%
15%
39%
25%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian
Austin DFW Houston San Antonio Texas
Educational attainment in the DFW metro is generally higher than that of the state, with the exception of education for Hispanics. However, educational disparities by race/ethnicity are still evident.
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2018
25Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
$60,629
$74,509
$48,175 $45,545
$87,120
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian
Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas
Median household incomes in the DFW metro tend to be higher than the state for all race/ethnic groups, but especially for NH Whites.
Unemployment and Poverty Rates by Race/Ethnicity, Texas and Big Four Metro Areas, 2018
26
The unemployment and poverty rates in the Dallas metro tend to be lower than the state rates for all race/ethnicity groups.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates
Poverty Rate
Unemployment Rate
4.9%4.1%
5.1%
7.4%
3.7%
14.9%
8.…
20.9%19.6%
10.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian
Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas
Percent Uninsured, States, 2006‐2017
27
Texas, 2006 27.6%
Texas, 2017 19.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2006-2017
Population Projections
Projected Population, 2010‐2050, Texas
29
31.2
40.5
54.4
47.3
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Millions
Zero Migration
0.5 Migration
1.0 Migration
2010‐2015 Migration
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections
Projected Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2030
30Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
11.4 12.8
2.9
4.3
9.5
14.5
0.9
2.4
0.5 0.90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Millions
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Projected Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010‐2030, Texas
31
1,376,711 1,436,158 4,992,028 1,466,352 477,642
14.1% 14.7%
51.2%
15.0%
4.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
2020 Census is in 60 days.
Texas Hard to Count PopulationsIn 2010, an estimated 240,000 Texans were undercounted in the Census.
An estimated 7 million, or nearly 25%, of Texans live in hard to count neighborhoods.
Some projections indicate up to 500,000 Texans could be undercounted in 2020.
Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center.
