Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Texas State University School Relations Retreat

December 17, 2012San Marcos, Texas

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

3

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 54.94 45.06

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.91 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

4

Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

?? 85%

5

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost population over the decade

6

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

7

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

Percent Increase

1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3

2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 3.9

3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.44. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.05. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.96. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.97. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7

8. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, S.C. 2.6

9. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, S.C. 2.6

10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

8

The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

NumericIncrease

1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774

2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699

3. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 121,911

4. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 118,791

5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964

6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490

7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345

8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146

9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349

10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

9

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 88,4522. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,4513. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,1274. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,3315. Riverside, Calif. 49,9796. Dallas, Texas 47,8757. Orange, Calif. 45,5138. San Diego, Calif. 44,7569. Bexar, Texas 41,37610. Tarrant, Texas 40,776

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains

10

Job Growth

11

Estimated domestic migration by county, 2000-2010

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

Compoch$.domig

-280,000 to --3,000

-2999 to 0

1- 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,000 - 220,000

12

Estimated international migration by county, 2000-2010

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

Compoch$.inmig

-1,400 to 0

1 to 500

501 to 2,500

2,501 to 50,000

50,000 to 280,000

13http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

14http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

15

Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity

Net domesti

c migr

ation

Internati

onal migr

ation

Total0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

44%24% 33%

28%50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%18% 12%

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

17

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

18Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male NH White Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

19Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic FemaleNH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

20Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009

Californ

iaTexa

s

Nevada

New York

New Jerse

y

Hawaii

Florid

a

Arizona

New Mexic

o

Miss

issippi

North Dak

ota

Vermont

Montan

a

West

Virginia

0

5

10

15

20

25

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009

Texas

Californ

ia

New Mexic

o

Arizona

Nevada

Florid

a

New Jerse

y

New York

Montan

a

North Dak

ota

Main

e

West

Virginia

Vermont

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009

Percent Foreign Born0-5%

5-10%

10-15%

15-25%

25-35%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2005-2009Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home

0-10%

10-25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-96%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

25

Number of Linguistically Isolated Households, by County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Pecos

Brewster

Webb

Hudspeth

PresidioTerrell

Culberson

Reeves

Val Verde

Crockett

Hill

Duval

Harris

Frio

Bell

Kerr

Polk

Starr

Clay

Edwards

Irion

Hall

Ellis

Jeff Davis

Sutton

Uvalde

Bee

Hale

Dallam

Leon

Bexar

Gaines

Hidalgo

Upton

Hartley

King

Erath

Jack

Kinney

Kent

Zavala

GrayOldham

Tyler

Dimmit

CassLynn HuntWise

La Salle

Rusk

Kimble

Kenedy

Lamb

Medina

Floyd

Terry

Brazoria

Coke

Llano

Liberty

Ector

Andrews

Milam

LeeTravis

Knox

Mills

Smith

Falls

Ward

Collin

Jones

Nolan

Potter

Burnet

Cottle

Taylor

Zapata

Real

Bowie

Coryell

Brown

Motley

YoungGarza

Lamar

Martin

DallasFisher

Moore

Baylor Archer

Scurry

Cooke

Mason

Parker

Castro

Navarro

Brooks

Hardin

Bailey

Deaf Smith

DeWitt

Lavaca

Donley

Atascosa

Hays

Goliad

Denton

Fannin

El Paso

Wharton

Crane

Carson

Tarrant

Crosby

Borden

Schleicher

Haskell

Gillespie

Randall

Shelby

Foard

BriscoeParmer

Mitchell

Wood

Menard

Panola

Walker

Kleberg

Winkler

Nueces

Harrison

Eastland

Loving

Bandera

Wichita

Willacy

Hood

Reagan Houston

Maverick

Jasper

Coleman

Tom Green

Bosque

Concho

Runnels

Fayette

Newton

Live Oak

Sterling

Jim Hogg

Wilson

Victoria

McMullen

Roberts

Trinity

Howard

Bastrop

Grayson

San Saba

Midland

Hockley Dickens

Swisher

Matagorda

Gonzales

Anderson

Dawson

Grimes

Wheeler

Cherokee

Jefferson

Colorado

Lubbock

Red River

Karnes

Refugio

Austin

Hemphill

Williamson

Jackson

Blanco

Ochiltree

McCulloch

Sherman

Wilbarger

Hansford

Callahan

McLennan

Yoakum

Angelina

Hopkins

Lipscomb

StephensPalo Pinto

Stonewall

Hamilton

Montague

Cameron

Cochran

Jim Wells

Limestone

Kaufman

Fort Bend

Titus

Comal

Armstrong

Kendall

Freestone

ComancheGlasscock

JohnsonHenderson

Montgomery

Brazos

Van Zandt

Robertson

Waller

Upshur

Sabine

Hutchinson

Shackelford

Childress

Burleson

Nacogdoches

Lampasas

Collingsworth

Hardeman

Throckmorton

Guadalupe

Caldwell Chambers

Marion

San Patricio

Madison

San Jacinto

Delta

Washington Orange

Calhoun

Rains

Gregg

Morris

San Augustine

Galveston

Franklin

Aransas

Somervell

Rockwall

Calhoun

Calhoun

Kenedy

Galveston

Kleberg

Aransas

Nueces

Willacy

Cameron

Calhoun

Pct of LI HH SpanishLingIsoHH

0

1-5000

5001-30,000

30,001-100,000

100,001-180,000

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher

2005-2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent 25+ with High School Degree45-55%

55-65%

65-75%

75-85%

85-98%

Percent of population aged 25 years and older

with Bachelors degree or higher. 2005-2009Percent 25 + with Bachelors

6-15%

15-20%

20-25%

25-35%

35-50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

29

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA

and MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

30

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School

College and Greater

31

One Year Persistence Rate of First-Time Entering Undergraduates by Parent's Educational Level Public University in Texas, 2010

Graduate

Bacca

laureate

Some Colle

ge/A

ssoc

No College

Unknown

Total74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94% 92.9%

91.7%

86.3%85.1%

81.3%

87.2%

Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board

Parent’s educational attainment

Pe

rce

nt

of

stu

de

nt’s

e

nro

llin

g in

se

con

d y

ea

r

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

18.8

29.0 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

2000 2040

Perc

ent

33

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

34

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

35

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

36

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

37

Under 5

05-09

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Male Female

Texas P0pulation Pyramid, 2010 and 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 and Texas State Data Center 2012. .o5 Migration Scenario

38

Demographics and Destiny

38

39

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.