texas demographic characteristics and trends

29
Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends Texas Association of Mutual Insurance Companies October 7, 2010 Round Rock, TX 1

Upload: ksena

Post on 25-Feb-2016

53 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends. Texas Association of Mutual Insurance Companies October 7, 2010 Round Rock, TX. 25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more). Demographic Highlights TEXAS is: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

1

Texas

Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Texas Association of Mutual Insurance

Companies

October 7, 2010Round Rock, TX

Page 2: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

2

25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)

Demographic Highlights TEXAS is:

big. The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, approaching 25 million people (estimated population of 24.8 million people in 2009).7

young. Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1 Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with

children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.7

embracing of culture and diversity. Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent, 2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo

mainly of Asian descent).1 In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4

a desired place to live and work. Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas

each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.

urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5

rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1

a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6

family oriented. Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2

multigenerational. Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2 growing – fast. Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2009), adding 478,000 people.7 Among cities over 100,000

population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas (2007-2008 change).7

Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Page 3: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

3

• Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2nd highest)• Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)• Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd highest)

• Texas is young: – Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest)

• Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman)– 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics Data, 2008 http://wonder.cdc.gov/

Natural Increase in Texas(Births minus Deaths)

Page 4: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

4

Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009

2000Population*

2009Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2009

PercentChange

2000-2009United States 281,424,602 307,006,550 25,581,948 9.1

Texas 20,851,820 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8

California 33,871,648 36,961,664 3,090,016 9.1

Florida 15,982,378 18,537,969 2,555,130 16.0

Georgia 8,186,453 9,829,211 1,642,430 20.1

Arizona 5,130,632 6,595,778 1,465,171 28.6

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,380,884 1,334,478 16.6Virginia 7,078,515 7,882,590 803,542 11.4

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimatesfor July 1 for 2009.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Page 5: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

Page 6: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

6

Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

Page 7: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

7

Legend0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Page 8: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2009

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White47%

NH Black12%

NH Other

5%

His-panic or Latino37%

2009

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census count and 2009 Population Estimate

Page 9: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Total Population 2000 CensusLt 10,000

10,000 - LT 50,000

50,000 - LT 100,000

100,000 - LT 500,000

GE 500,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count and 2009 Population Estimates

Total Population, 2000 Census and 2009 Estimate

2000 Census 2009 Estimate

Page 10: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Anglo, 2009LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 25%

GT 25% - LE 50%

GT 50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates

Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Anglo, 2009

Page 11: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Estimated Percent Hispanic, 2009LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 25%

GT 25% - LE 50%

GT 50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates

Estimated Percent Hispanic, 2009

Page 12: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Black, 2009LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 25%

GT 25% - LE 50%

GT 50%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates

Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Black, 2009

Page 13: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

13

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2009

00-09 pop chgPercent

-35%-0%

0-10%

10-25%

25-50%

50-90%

Population increase for Texas was almost 19%

during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count and 2009 Population Estimates

Page 14: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

14

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2009 Estimated

2000 2009

Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009TOT_POPP9

LE 10%

GT 10% - LE 15%

GT 15% - LE 20%

GT 20% - LE 25%

GT 25%

Page 15: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

15

Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 and 2009Total Population aged 65 plus 2009

TOT_POP9LE 5,000

GT 5,000 - LE 15,000

GT 15,000 - LE 25,000

GT 25,000 - LE 100,000

GT 100,000

2000 2009

Page 16: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

16Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

Page 17: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

17

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2007 2000-2040

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Percent of Population Growth and Projected Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario

Page 18: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040

Page 19: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

2000 2040

< 11.9

12.0 – 14.9

15.0 – 19.9

20.0 or more

Page 20: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Population Pyramids, Texas

0123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384

300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,0000123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384

300,000 100,000 100,000 300,000

0123456789

101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384

300,000 100,000 100,000 300,000

2000 2008 2020

Sources: 2000 Census, Texas State Data Center 2000-2040 Projections

Page 21: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

21

Projected Population of Older Texans

20002003

20062009

20122015

20182021

20242027

20302033

20362039

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Age 65-74 Age 75-84 Age 85+

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario

Page 22: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Page 23: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

23

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009

Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

8%26%

25%

15%33%

13%34%

7%

Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Page 24: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

24

1995 20070

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

White Black Latino/a Other

Race/Ethnicity and Obesity in Texas,1995 and 2007

Source: Centers for Disease Control, BRFSS

Per

cent

Page 25: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

25

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center Projections

Page 26: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

26

Percent of population with independent living difficulty by age, Texas, 2009

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

18-34 35-64

64-74 75 and over

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

Page 27: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

27

Health Insurance Coverage and No Insurance byType for Ethnic Groups, 2008

Source: American Community Survey, 2008

Page 28: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

28

• Texas’ population will continue to grow, driven by both natural increase and net migration (internal and international)

• The Hispanic origin population contributes significantly to overall growth of Texas’ total population

• The population will continue to increase in major urbanized areas and along the south Texas border, with declining population in most rural areas

• There a number of social and economic trends and disparities that are notable and relevant for the insurance companies

Major Points

Page 29: Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends

29

Contact

Office: 512-463-7659

Email: [email protected]

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.