demographic characteristics and trends in texas...
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Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and the Collin and Rockwall County
Area
Collin College
August 12, 2015Allen, Texas
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014
Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)
2All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates
Population Growth, Texas, 1950‐2010
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses
1950 1960 1970 1980
1990 20002010
Historic County Population, Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
B r e w s t e r
FranklinHunt
Newton
S t a r r
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
W e b b
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
O l d h a m
Taylor
K ing
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Va l Ve r d e
Brown
Parker
H a r r i s
Zapata
R e dR i v e r
Karnes
P a l oP in to
Glasscock Shelby
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Orange
Colorado
P e c o s
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
E l l i s
H a l l
Dickens
Trinity
R e e v e s
Marion
Te r r e l l
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
P r e s i d i o
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
E d w a r d s
San Patricio
Terry
Cro c k e t t
Houston
Waller
Coke
W a r d
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillH a r t l e y
Young
Burleson
Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
S u t t o n
Midland
H u d s p e t h
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
J e f f D a v i s
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
F r i o
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
K e r r
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
I r i o n
Caldwell
J imHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
K i m b l e
Knox
P o l k
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates
86 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 4,441,370
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2014
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
102 counties lost population over the four year period.
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
B r e w s t e r
FranklinHunt
Newton
S t a r r
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
W e b b
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
O l d h a m
Taylor
K ing
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Va l Ve r d e
Brown
Parker
H a r r i s
Zapata
R e dR i v e r
Karnes
P a l oP in t o
Glasscock Shelby
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Orange
Colorado
P e c o s
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
E l l i s
H a l l
Dickens
Trinity
R e e v e s
Marion
Te r r e l l
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
P r e s i d i o
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
E d w a r d s
San Patricio
Terry
Cro c k e t t
Houston
Waller
Coke
W a r d
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillH a r t l e y
Young
Burleson
Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
S u t t o n
Midland
H u d s p e t h
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
J e f f D a v i s
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
F r i o
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
K e r r
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
I r i o n
Caldwell
J imHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
K i m b l e
Knox
P o l k
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
-1,553 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 80,000
80,001 - 348,911
95 counties lost population between 2013-14Of these:
36 (38%) had natural decline89 (94%) had net out migration30 (32%) had both natural decline and net out migration
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014
7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
-10.8% - 0%
0.1% - 2.5%
2.6% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 18.2%Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
B r e w s t e r
FranklinHunt
Newton
S t a r r
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
W e b b
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
O l d h a m
Taylor
K ing
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Va l Ve r d e
Brown
Parker
H a r r i s
Zapata
R e dR i v e r
Karnes
P a l oP in to
Glasscock Shelby
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Orange
Colorado
P e c o s
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
E l l i s
H a l l
Dickens
Trinity
R e e v e s
Marion
Te r re l l
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
P r e s i d i o
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
E d w a r d s
San Patricio
Terry
Cro c k e t t
Houston
Waller
Coke
W a r d
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillH a r t l e y
Young
Burleson
Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
S u t t o n
Midland
H u d s p e t h
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
J e f f D a v i s
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
Delta
Stonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
F r i o
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
K e r r
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
I r i o n
Caldwell
J imHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
K i m b l e
Knox
P o l k
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
89.5% 86.7%
41.5%
65.9%
49.7% 53.7%
10.5% 13.3%
58.5%
34.1%
50.3% 46.3%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
MigrationNatural Increase
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
U.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change
Percent of Change from
Natural Increase
Percent Changefrom
Migration
Percent of Migration that is
international
Harris 1 88,618 48.6% 51.4% 54.0%
Bexar 6 33,712 42.8% 57.2% 23.2%
Dallas 8 32,555 69.6% 30.4% 116.3%*
Tarrant 10 31,417 50.8% 49.2% 38.5%
Fort Bend 11 30,784 19.4% 80.6% 17.3%
Travis 12 28,397 38.2% 61.8% 29.7%
Collin 14 26,530 26.1% 73.8% 20.1%
Denton 16 24,211 27.2% 72.8% 14.0%
Montgomery 27 19,129 17.9% 82.1% 10.4%
Williamson 31 18,025 23.2% 76.8% 7.8%Rockwall 2,519 21.7% 78.3% 7.7%
*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates
Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2013-2014
Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2013-2014
U.S. Rank
2013‐2014 Percent
Population Change
Percent Changefrom
Migration
Percent of Migration that is International
Hays 5 4.8% 83.89% 2.62%Fort Bend 6 4.7% 80.6% 17.27%Comal 9 4.0% 90.1% 3.04%Andrews 12 4.0% 62.8% 3.57%Montgomery 13 3.8% 82.1% 10.39%Williamson 14 3.8% 76.8% 7.84%Kendall 15 3.8% 98.0% 5.02%Ward 21 3.4% 72.0% 1.49%Denton 23 3.3% 72.8% 14.2%Collin 31 3.1% 73.9% 20.1%Aransas 32 3.1% 110.8% 4.3%Rockwall 35 3.0% 78.3% 7.8%Waller 36 2.9% 77.2% 5.3%Ector 37 2.9% 59.9% 2.0%Guadalupe 42 2.8% 78.6% 4.9%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2013
Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
B r e w s t e r
FranklinHunt
Newton
S t a r r
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
L e o n
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
W e b b
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
O l d h a m
Taylor
K ing
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Va l Ve r d e
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
R e dR i v e r
Karnes
P a l oP in to
Glasscock Shelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Orange
Colorado
P e c o s
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
H a l l
Dickens
Trinity
R e e v e s
Marion
Te r re l l
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
Fisher
Dawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
P r e s i d i o
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
E d w a r d s
San Patricio
Terry
Cro c k e t t
Houston
Waller
Coke
W a r d
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillH a r t l e y
Young
Burleson
Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
S u t t o n
Midland
H u d s p e t h
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
J e f f D a v i s
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hi l l
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
F r i o
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
K e r r
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
I r i o n
Caldwell
J imHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
K i m b l e
Knox
P o l k
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
-6,207 - 0
1 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 46,392
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014
Texas2,180,000
Texas2,180,000
California810,000
California810,000 North
Carolina340,000
North Carolina340,000
New York550,000New York550,000
Washington320,000
Washington320,000
Texas2,180,000
California810,000 North
Carolina340,000
New York550,000
Washington320,000
Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014
29%
11%
7%4%
Texas
California
New York
North CarolinaWashington
4%
Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State
Percent of population that was born in Texas, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
14
0% - 20%
20.1% - 50%
50.1% - 60%
60.1% - 75%
75.1% - 100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percent of residents who move to current residence from outside the county in the past year, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
15
0% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 40%
40.1% - 100%
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Number of Non‐Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007‐2011
11,660
8,814
10,045
11,002
3,884
18,766
8,331
17,403
11,730
7,054
100,835
30,982
40,835
15,651
22,721
56,831
61,418
30,532
59,220
10,957
California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
Latin America
Asia
Europe
Africa and Other
Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011
Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005‐2012
0.8%
2.4%
2.5%
4.2%
1.3%
6.0%
3.9%
6.1%
5.3%
5.7%
7.0%
5.8%
6.9%
6.5%
8.6%
11.7%
56.8%
54.9%
51.3%
49.1%
39.5%
39.4%
45.4%
37.1%
37.1%
36.9%
39.2%
40.9%
52.3%
48.1%
42.1%
45.1%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
China India Mexico All Others
Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012
Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who speak a language other than English at home and speak English less than very well,
Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
18
0% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 40%
40.1% - 77.9%
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black11%
NH Other4%
Hispanic or Latino32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other6%
Hispanic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
Texas White (non‐Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Und
er 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
80 years
84 years
88 years
92 years
96 years
100 to 104…
Popu
latio
n
Age
White (non‐Hispanic)Hispanic
20Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Male White, Non‐Hispanic Female White, Non‐Hispanic
21
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Male Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
22
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 years
90 years
95 years
100 to 104 years
Male White, Non‐Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non‐Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
23
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Percent of the population that is of Hispanic descent, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
24
0% - 20%
20.1% - 35%
35.1% - 50%
50.1% - 80%
80.1% - 100%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010*
19901990 2010*2010*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample.
Mean commute time among workers in minutes, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
26
4.8 - 15
15.1 - 20
20.1 - 25
25.1 - 30
30.1 - 70
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percent of workers using public transit to commute, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
27
0%
0.1% - 5%
5.1% - 7.5%
7.6% - 15%
15.1% - 34.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percent of the population living below poverty, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
28
0% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 30%
30.1% - 40%
40.1% - 91.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percent of the population earning $75,000 or more annually, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
29
0% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 30%
30.1% - 55.5%
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Millions
Zero Migration
0.5 of 2000‐2010 Migration
2000‐2010 Migration
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050
30Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
Population Projections for Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2010‐2050
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2000‐2010
1/2 2000‐2010
No Migration
31Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2030
1500000
1700000
1900000
2100000
2300000
2500000
2700000
2900000
3100000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Dallas .5 Tarrant .5
Dallas Tarrant
Dallas Est. Tarrant Est.
32Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2015
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Collin .5 Denton .5Collin DentonCollin Est. Denton Est.
33Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2030
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Rockwall
Rockwall .5
Rockwall Est
34Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010‐2050
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH‐WhiteNH‐BlackHispanicNH‐Other
35Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25‐64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001‐2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
37
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Less than High School High School orEquivalent
Some College /Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree
Percen
t of the
Civilian
Labor Force
Educational Attainment
2011 ACS
2030 Constant 2011 %
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
38
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Less than High School High School orEquivalent
Some College /Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree
Percen
t of the
Civilian
Labor Force
Educational Attainment
2011 ACS
2030 Trended (2001‐2011 Trend)
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
Percent of the adult (25 and older) population with less than high school diploma, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Hunt
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
39
0% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 30%
30.1% - 50%
50.1% - 80%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013.
Percent of the adult (25 and older) population with bachelor’s degree or higher, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013
Dallas
Johnson
Grayson
Ellis
Tarrant
Kaufman
Collin
Fannin
Cooke
Denton
Rockwall
40
0% - 10%
10.1% - 25%
25.1% - 40%
40.1% - 60%
60.1% - 92.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.
Contact
Office: (512) 463‐8390 or (210) 458‐6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.
42