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Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and the Collin and Rockwall County Area Collin College August 12, 2015 Allen, Texas

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Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and the Collin and Rockwall County

Area

Collin College

August 12, 2015Allen, Texas

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

2All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Population Growth, Texas, 1950‐2010

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

1950 1960 1970 1980

1990 20002010

Historic County Population, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in to

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r r e l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

86 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,441,370

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2014

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

102 counties lost population over the four year period.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in t o

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r r e l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

-1,553 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 348,911

95 counties lost population between 2013-14Of these:

36 (38%) had natural decline89 (94%) had net out migration30 (32%) had both natural decline and net out migration

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

-10.8% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 18.2%Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in to

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r re l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

MigrationNatural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

U.S. Rank Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from 

Natural Increase

Percent Changefrom 

Migration

Percent of Migration that is 

international

Harris  1 88,618  48.6% 51.4% 54.0%

Bexar  6 33,712  42.8% 57.2% 23.2%

Dallas  8 32,555  69.6% 30.4% 116.3%*

Tarrant  10 31,417  50.8% 49.2% 38.5%

Fort Bend  11 30,784  19.4% 80.6% 17.3%

Travis  12 28,397  38.2% 61.8% 29.7%

Collin  14 26,530  26.1% 73.8% 20.1%

Denton  16 24,211  27.2% 72.8% 14.0%

Montgomery  27 19,129  17.9% 82.1% 10.4%

Williamson  31 18,025  23.2% 76.8% 7.8%Rockwall 2,519 21.7% 78.3% 7.7%

*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2013-2014

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2013-2014

U.S. Rank

2013‐2014 Percent 

Population Change

Percent Changefrom 

Migration

Percent of Migration that is International

Hays  5 4.8% 83.89% 2.62%Fort Bend  6 4.7% 80.6% 17.27%Comal  9 4.0% 90.1% 3.04%Andrews  12 4.0% 62.8% 3.57%Montgomery  13 3.8% 82.1% 10.39%Williamson  14 3.8% 76.8% 7.84%Kendall  15 3.8% 98.0% 5.02%Ward  21 3.4% 72.0% 1.49%Denton  23 3.3% 72.8% 14.2%Collin  31 3.1% 73.9% 20.1%Aransas  32 3.1% 110.8% 4.3%Rockwall  35 3.0% 78.3% 7.8%Waller  36 2.9% 77.2% 5.3%Ector  37 2.9% 59.9% 2.0%Guadalupe  42 2.8% 78.6% 4.9%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2013

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

L e o n

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in to

Glasscock Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r re l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

Fisher

Dawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hi l l

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

-6,207 - 0

1 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 46,392

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014

Texas2,180,000

Texas2,180,000

California810,000

California810,000 North 

Carolina340,000

North Carolina340,000

New York550,000New York550,000

Washington320,000

Washington320,000

Texas2,180,000

California810,000 North 

Carolina340,000

New York550,000

Washington320,000

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004‐2014

29%

11%

7%4%

Texas

California

New York

North CarolinaWashington

4%

Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State

Percent of population that was born in Texas, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

14

0% - 20%

20.1% - 50%

50.1% - 60%

60.1% - 75%

75.1% - 100%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of residents who move to current residence from outside the county in the past year, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

15

0% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 40%

40.1% - 100%

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Number of Non‐Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007‐2011

11,660

8,814

10,045

11,002

3,884

18,766

8,331

17,403

11,730

7,054

100,835

30,982

40,835

15,651

22,721

56,831

61,418

30,532

59,220

10,957

California

Texas

New York

Florida

Illinois

Latin America

Asia

Europe

Africa and Other

Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011

Shares of Recent Non‐Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005‐2012

0.8%

2.4%

2.5%

4.2%

1.3%

6.0%

3.9%

6.1%

5.3%

5.7%

7.0%

5.8%

6.9%

6.5%

8.6%

11.7%

56.8%

54.9%

51.3%

49.1%

39.5%

39.4%

45.4%

37.1%

37.1%

36.9%

39.2%

40.9%

52.3%

48.1%

42.1%

45.1%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

China India Mexico All Others

Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012

Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who speak a language other than English at home and speak English less than very well, 

Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

18

0% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 40%

40.1% - 77.9%

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black11%

NH Other4%

Hispanic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

Texas White (non‐Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Und

er 1 year

4 years

8 years

12 years

16 years

20 years

24 years

28 years

32 years

36 years

40 years

44 years

48 years

52 years

56 years

60 years

64 years

68 years

72 years

76 years

80 years

84 years

88 years

92 years

96 years

100 to 104…

Popu

latio

n

Age

White (non‐Hispanic)Hispanic

20Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Female White, Non‐Hispanic

21

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

22

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female White, Non‐Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

23

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Percent of the population that is of Hispanic descent, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

24

0% - 20%

20.1% - 35%

35.1% - 50%

50.1% - 80%

80.1% - 100%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010*

19901990 2010*2010*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample.

Mean commute time among workers in minutes, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

26

4.8 - 15

15.1 - 20

20.1 - 25

25.1 - 30

30.1 - 70

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of workers using public transit to commute, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

27

0%

0.1% - 5%

5.1% - 7.5%

7.6% - 15%

15.1% - 34.1%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of the population living below poverty, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

28

0% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 40%

40.1% - 91.5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of the population earning $75,000 or more annually, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

29

0% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 55.5%

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Millions

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000‐2010 Migration

2000‐2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050

30Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Population Projections for Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area, 2010‐2050

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2000‐2010

1/2 2000‐2010

No Migration

31Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2030

1500000

1700000

1900000

2100000

2300000

2500000

2700000

2900000

3100000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Dallas .5 Tarrant .5

Dallas Tarrant

Dallas Est. Tarrant Est.

32Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2015

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Collin .5 Denton .5Collin DentonCollin Est. Denton Est.

33Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Population Estimates and Projections, Metroplex Counties, 2010‐2030

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Rockwall

Rockwall .5

Rockwall Est

34Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010‐2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH‐WhiteNH‐BlackHispanicNH‐Other

35Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25‐64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001‐2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, 

Texas

37

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Percen

t of the

 Civilian

 Labor Force

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25‐64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended 

Rates, Texas

38

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Percen

t of the

 Civilian

 Labor Force

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001‐2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the adult (25 and older) population with less than high school diploma, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Hunt

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

39

0% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 50%

50.1% - 80%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of the adult (25 and older) population with bachelor’s degree or higher, Census Tracts, Texas, 2009‐2013

Dallas

Johnson

Grayson

Ellis

Tarrant

Kaufman

Collin

Fannin

Cooke

Denton

Rockwall

40

0% - 10%

10.1% - 25%

25.1% - 40%

40.1% - 60%

60.1% - 92.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2009-2013.

Demographics and Destiny

41

Contact 

Office: (512) 463‐8390 or (210) 458‐6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.

42