MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM

31-OCT-2016 116 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 106

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 347 342 337 336 333 331 328 324 319

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3425 3348 3271 3241 3194 3164 3117 3040 2963

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 32594 32024 31454 31098 30884 30528 30314 29744 29174

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 158 152 146 144 140 138 134 128 122

NATURAL GAS

26-OCT-2015 213 207 201 198 195 192 189 184 178

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 769 747 725 714 703 692 681 659 637

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 49896 48623 47350 46538 46077 45265 44804 43531 42258

ZINC 31-OCT-2016 167 164 161 159 158 156 155 152 149

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-OCT-2016 122 118 114 113 110 109 106 102 98

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 353 346 339 336 332 329 325 318 311

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3973 3693 3413 3312 3133 3032 2853 2573 2293

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 32961 32281 31601 31171 30921 30491 30241 29561 28881

LEAD 31-OCT-2016 185 169 153 147 137 131 121 105 89

NATURALGAS

26-OCT-2015 233 221 209 202 197 190 185 173 161

NICKEL 31-OCT-2016 802 770 738 720 706 688 674 642 610

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 50915 49260 47605 46665 45950 45010 44295 42640 40985

ZINC 31-OCT2016 183 174 165 161 156 152 147 138 129

Monday, 3 October 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 3213 TGT 3291 SL 3139

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31153 TGT 31456 SL 30844

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31402 TGT 31709 SL 31098 - NOT EXECUTED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 67.75 67.55 67.35 67.15 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20

EURINR 26-OCT2016 75.95 75.75 75.55 75.35 75.15 74.95 74.75 74.55 74.30

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 88 87.80 87.60 87.40 87.20 87 86.80 86.60 86.40

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 67.10 66.90 66.70 66.50 66.30 66.10 65.90 65.70 65.50

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 68.10 67.80 67.50 67.20 67 66.70 66.40 66.10 65.80

EURINR 26-OCT2016 76.20 75.95 75.65 75.35 75 74.70 74.40 74.10 73.80

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 88.30 88 87.70 87.40 87.10 86.80 86.50 86.20 85.90

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 67.50 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30 66 65.70 65.40 65.10

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 65.70 TGT 65 SL 66.40

SELL USDINR OCT BELOW 75.90 TGT 75.20 SL 76.50

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY EURINR OCT ABOVE 75.63 TGT 76.26 SL 74.98 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 66.10 TGT 65.40 SL 66.80 - MADE LOW OF 65.72

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 667 663 659 657 655 653 651 647 643

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3395 3337 3279 3257 3221 3199 3163 3105 3047

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 4748 4683 4618 4595 4553 4530 4488 4423 4358

JEERAUNJHA 18-NOV-2016 17665 17540

17415

17355

17290 17230 17165 17040 16915

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 3786 3708 3630 3594 3552 3516 3474 3396 3318

TMC 18-NOV-2016 7490 7394 7298 7242 7202 7146 7106 7010 6914

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 18-NOV-2016 696 683 670 662 657 649 644 631 618

SYBEANIDR 18-NOV-2016 3472 3385 3298 3267 3211 3180 3124 3037 2950

RMSEED 18-NOV-2016 5295 5066 4837 4704 4608 4475 4379 4150 3921

JEERAUNJHA

18-NOV-2016 18765 18285 17805

17550 17325 17070 16845 16365 15885

GUARSEED10 18-NOV-2016 4100 3926 3752 3655 3578 3481 3404 3230 3056

TMC 18-NOV-2016 8289 7895 7501 7343 7101 6949 6713 6319 5925

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA NOV ABOVE 17670 TGT 18093 SL 17273

BUY GUARSEED NOV ABOVE 3582 TGT 3659 SL 3508

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 17600 TGT 18000 SL 17200 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

BULLION✍

Gold pared early gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar recovered and global stocks

rallied after oil producers agreed to curb output. The Organization of Petroleum

Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal

since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran

amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. shares pulled regional stock markets

higher on Thursday. ‘ Once again struggled to find direction in low volumes, with

regional names happy to sit on the sidelines as gold threatens a test of the 100-day

moving average around $ 1,310," "With some time still to pass until the currently

expected U.S. Federal reserve rate rise in December, gold looks likely to hold range-

bound over the short term." Division between Federal Reserve policy makers on when

to raise U.S. interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by

officials from the central bank. gold and dollar markets are currently without very

strong direction. The mixed views from U.S. Fed officials have weakened their

credibility and the market has stopped buying their comments," Spot gold XAU= was

steady at $1,320.62 an ounce by 0706 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were up nearly

0.1 percent at $1,324.30 an ounce.

Gold prices hit a one-week low on Wednesday, as the dollar firmed and investors

assessed Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before a Congressional

committee. The Federal Reserve is considering changing the annual stress tests it gives

to U.S. banks to see if they can withstand a massive financial crisis, Yellen said. The

Fed's chair did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy in her

prepared remarks. gold XAU= fell 0.4 percent to $1,322.95 an ounce by 1409 GMT. It

fell nearly one percent on Tuesday, its biggest single-day loss in one month on a higher

appetite for risk. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 eased 0.3 percent to $1,326.20 an ounce.

Gold's next technical support level stands at $ 1,320, while the closest resistance is $

1,350, MKS SA head of trading Afshin Nabavi said. Minneapolis Fed President Neel

Kashkari said the central bank could keep rates low for a while as inflation remains

weak. markets will also monitor Cleveland Fed President Mester and Kansas City Fed

President George's speeches on the economy and monetary policy at separate events. "It

is probably going to be a case of watching out for these Fed officials' comments," We

also have Friday's U.S. inflation reading, which is the bank's preferred measure of

inflation and if that shows tick up towards the 2 percent target, it would give more

confidence to markets that the Fed will move to raise rates in December." Butler added

that traders were also watching a meeting of oil producers in Algiers this week to see if

an agreement could be reached to ease a global glut of crude. Gold is often seen as a

hedge against oil-led inflation. The dollar .DXY was up 0.1 percent against a basket of

six major currencies, making gold more expensive for foreign currency holders.

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

traded fund, fell 0.22 percent to 949.14 tonnes on Tuesday.

Gold edged up on Thursday as the US dollar weakened in the wake of an oil producer

agreement to curb output. Division between Federal Reserve policymakers on when to

raise US interest rates has sapped investor enthusiasm for trading on comments by

officials from the central bank. "The gold and dollar markets are currently without very

strong direction. The mixed views from US Fed officials have weakened their

credibility and the market has stopped buying on their comments," said Jiang Shu, chief

analyst at Shandong Gold Group. "For now, we can see gold move in the band of $1,300

to $1,350." Spot gold had risen 0.3 per cent to $ 1,325 an ounce by 0345 GMT. US gold

futures were up 0.4 per cent at $ 1,328.60 an ounce. The Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries on Wednesday agreed modest oil output cuts in the first such deal

since 2008, with the group's leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran

amid mounting pressure from low crude prices. Oil futures extended gains on Thursday

after rising nearly 6 percent the day before on the surprise OPEC move. "Further oil

price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market, especially if other non-

oil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices, such as the GSCI, rise,"

The gold market will absorb another raft of US., European and Japanese economic data

on Thursday, he said. US GDP numbers are due, as well as European Union business

confidence data."We think prices may stay on the defensive in the absence of new

developments, unless oil prices continue to rise enough to lend support to bullion." The

dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as much

as 0.1 per cent to 95.338 Silver was up 0.4 percent at $19.24 an ounce. Platinum and

palladium rose over 1 per cent to $1,033.99 and $717 respectively. Palladium earlier

touched its highest in over seven weeks at $721.30.

Gold prices inched up during Europe's session on Thursday, but remained near a one-

week low as market players looked ahead to more U.S. economic data for clues on the

likelihood of a December rate hike. Comments from a barrage of Federal Reserve

officials, including the Fed chair, later in the session will also be in focus. Gold for

December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange

tacked on $ 1.60, or 0.12%, to $ 1,325.30 a troy ounce by 4:20AM ET. On Wednesday,

prices fell to $ 1,321.10, a level not seen since September 21. Data due on Thursday

includes weekly jobless claims, the final look at second-quarter GDP and the trade

deficit, all at 8:30 AM ET. Pending home sales are reported at 10:00AM ET. A handful

of Fed policymakers are also due to make public appearances on Thursday that may

offer insight into how divided they are about raising rates. Philadelphia Fed President

Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Fed Governor Jerome Powell,

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Kansas City Fed President Esther George

are all scheduled to speak during the day.

✍ ENERGY

Oil futures retreated on Thursday as the market grew more sceptical on how OPEC

would implement a plan to curb oil output, a day after the group agreed to limit

production. "Further oil price rallies may feed more convincingly into the gold market,

especially if other non-oil commodities also rally, and the broader commodity indices

rise," HSBC analyst James Steel said in a note. Goldman Sachs said the deal reached by

OPEC crude producers on Wednesday to curb output should add $ 7 to $ 10 to oil prices

in the first half of next year. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries agreed on Wednesday to modest oil output cuts in the first such deal since

2008, with group leader Saudi Arabia softening its stance on arch-rival Iran amid

mounting pressure from low oil prices. "Strict implementation of today's deal in 2017

would represent 480,000 to 980,000 barrels per day less output," Goldman analysts said

in a note dated Wednesday. "Longer term, we remain sceptical on the implementation of

the proposed quotas, if ratified," the analysts said. Still, the bank reiterated its year-end

and 2017 oil price forecasts, given the uncertainty of the OPEC proposal. Goldman kept

its end-2016 forecast for US West Texas Intermediate crude at $ 43 per barrel and its

2017 forecast at $ 53 per barrel. WTI was trading around $ 47 a barrel, after gaining

more than five per cent on Wednesday on OPEC's planned output cut. "If this proposed

cut is strictly enforced and supports prices, we would expect it to prove self-defeating

medium term with a large drilling response around the world,"

WTI oil prices rose by 8.5 percent last week to close at $48.2 per barrel with Brent

nearing $50 a barrel on optimism over OPEC's first planned output cut in eight years,

although gains were limited as some analysts doubted the reduction would be enough to

make a substantial dent in

the global crude glut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on

Wednesday to cut output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day from around 33.5 million

bpd, estimated by Reuters to be the output level in August. OPEC said other details will

be known at its policy meeting in November, leaving unanswered when the agreement

will come into effect, what new quotas for member countries will be and for what

periods, and how compliance will be verified. Key members such as Saudi Arabia and

Iran resisted, becoming more protective of individual market share even though the rout

hurt the group's oil-dependent economies. The deal in Algiers follows failed talks in

Qatar in April for a production freeze. Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude

exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012. On

the MCX, oil prices rose by 8 percent to close at Rs.3212 per barrel.

✍ BASE METAL

LME Copper prices rose 0.2 percent last week to $4865/tonne as the 14-member OPEC

agreed to cut production for the first time since 2008, proposing new production levels

at 32.5 million to 33 millionbarrels a day, a 700,000 drop on August production levels at

33.24 million barrels a day. Besides, comments from Chilean President Michelle

Bachelet said the country's budgeted spending will rise 2.7 percent in 2017 compared

with this year, one of the lowest rates of growth since the 1990s, as a sluggish economy

has crimped income. Also, Industrial profit growth in China surged 19.5 percent to

534.8 billion Yuan in August to the highest level since 2013 helped by rising sales,

higher prices and lower costs, shown recent signs of stabilization. However, stock

additions at LME’s South East Asian warehouses of Gwangyang, Klang and Busan

restricted sharp upside. MCX copper prices traded higher by 0.2 percent to close at

Rs.328.6 per kg on Friday.

The Engineering Export Promotion Council of India has opposed extension of minimum

import price on steel as it said the non-tariff barrier on crucial inputs was resulting in an

inversion of duty with imports of finished goods increasing at a faster pace than the raw

material. “Any inversion in duty at this stage would be a big setback to Make in India

where the entire focus is on taking the country several notches up on the value and

technology chain so that we become a global factory,” said EEPC India Chairman T S

Bhasin. Imports for finished goods in the form of products of steel and iron increased at

up to 51 per cent between June and August this year, EEPC India said in a statement.

On the other hand, imports for the raw material by way of steel and iron used purely for

raw material dropped between June and August. On August 4, Directorate General of

Foreign Trade extended the minimum import price on 66 steel products till October 4.

The MIP is in the range of $341-$752 per tonne. The government had earlier levied MIP

on 173 steel products ranging from $341 to $752 per tonne on February 5, which was

valid for six months. While the measure has led to curtailment of cheaper imports to

some extent, it has also increased idling capacities of small steel manufacturers and

downstream industry, EEPC said.

Domestic steel industry remains engaged in mulling the quantum of October price hike,

demand for the commodity is expected to catch pace in coming months, thanks to a rise

in construction activity.“Second half of this year has seen demand rising for steel as

government projects are likely to take-off,” said Sanak Mishra, secretary general at

Indian Steel Association . Domestic demand for steel is expected to grow 5.3 per cent in

the current fiscal to 85.8 million tonne as consumption from construction and capital

goods is seen higher, supported by higher infrastructure spending, ISA has said in its

recent report. In addition, a pick-up in rural income due to good monsoon and

government initiatives is expected to help in creating sustainable demand in the region.

Railways and intermediate sectors are also expected to witness growth. “Government

initiatives by way of increments to its employees and public sector staff is likely to

boost automotive and consumer durables demand in the current financial year,” said ISA

in its short-term domestic steel demand outlook.The association sees consistent rise in

domestic demand for the next eight quarters, taking 2017-18 demand to 90.6 million

tonne, achieving a growth of 5.6 per cent from previous year.

Lead prices drifted lower by 0.24 per cent to Rs. 126.40 per kg in futures trade today as

traders trimmed their positions amid sluggish demand from battery-makers in the spot

market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in September declined by

30 paise or 0.24 per cent to Rs 126.40 per kg in business turnover of 370 lots. Likewise,

the metal for delivery in October contracts traded lower by a similar margin to Rs

127.05 per kg in 3 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants

owing to slackened demand from battery-makers in the spot market led to decline in

lead prices at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean

prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated

soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean,

farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a

quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said

Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of

the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and

arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further

slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines,

Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year.

As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year

compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year.

One of the largest traders in the sugar market said world sugar output in the next crop

season will trail demand by more than previously forecast as adverse growing

conditions threaten yields in Brazil and India, the biggest growers. The deficit in the

2016-17 season, which starts October 1 in most countries, will be 4 million metric tons,

Paris-based Sucden & Denrees said Thursday, up from a July projection of 3 million.

India’s crop will drop by about 2 million tons to 23.2 million, creating a domestic

shortfall of 2.7 million that may spur the country to import, Sucden said in a report.

While Brazil’s Center-South region could produce a record 35.4 million tons, according

to the trader, some forecasters point to a rainy October curbing the sucrose content of

the sugar-cane. That could collapse yields, raising concern about how much sugar-cane

is available for processing, anddelay the start of next year’s harvest. Harsh weather in

the country’s northeastern sections “means more downside may be on the horizon

there.” “As always, weather conditions going forward can influence sugar production

and can therefore bring some volatility,” Sucden said. “Also, while funds posted a new

record long recently and seem to be willing to persist on the long side, it cannot be ruled

out that a macro event might, at some point, trigger a sell-off.”

Subdued export demand, rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and expected good crop from

Madhya Pradesh have pulled down prices of chilli, which had touched a new peak this

year. The prices of the largest exported spice from India have dropped by 10% to 15%

and the falling trend may continue in the coming weeks. The chilli prices are currently

hovering in the range of Rs 110 to Rs 125 per kg. “The high prices in the last few

months had impacted exports. Good harvest in China also led to sluggish purchase by

the country. Now the export demand has thinned considerably,” said AP Murugan,

director of Paprika Oleos , a major exporter. At present, chilli exports are limited to Sri

Lanka and Bangladesh in small quantities. The weak export trend along with anticipated

good crop from Madhya Pradesh could trigger a downward push in the prices, according

to the traders. Last year, Madhya Pradesh’s chilli crop fell short because of pest

problems. Indian chilli exports had touched close to Rs 4,000 crore in 2015-16, a record.

Exactly a year after strengthening regulation of the 13-year-old commodity derivatives

market, the Securities and Exchange Board of India has taken the first steps towards its

growth by allowing exchanges like MCX and NCDEX to launch options in

commodities. Also, it has expanded the list of notified commodities that exchanges can

launch by adding to it eggs, diamonds, skimmed milk powder, tea, cocoa, pig iron,

biofuels and brass. ET had reported in its edition of September 27 that Sebi would

approve the launch of the options this week. On July 1, this paper was the first to report

that the regulator was considering a diamond contract. Sebi will spell out the details of

the type of options and the products on which they can be launched in due course. An

advisory committee constituted by Sebi after erstwhile commodity regulator FMC was

merged with it on September 29 last year had recommended launch of gold and refined

soya oil options initially.

The domestic sugar prices have remained firm and increased from around Rs.

31,500/MT in March 2016 to Rs. 36,000/MT in August 2016 and continue to hover

around the same price in September 2016, supported by an expected decline in the sugar

production during sugar year 2017 , actual decline in the domestic sugar stocks during

SY2016, and also a global sugar deficit scenario, which drove up international sugar

prices. Further, the domestic sugar prices are likely to remain firm in the next three to

four quarters, given the tight domestic situation. Mr. Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior

Vice-President, ICRA, said: “While the Government implemented stock holding limits

in September 2016, this hasn’t resulted in any significant impact on domestic sugar

prices. Sugar prices are expected to remain firm in the near term in spite of this, given

the tight stock position. However, imposition of export duty and stock holding limit

measures may dampen prospects of a further significant price rise. In the next 3-4

quarters, any further increase from the current levels would depend upon the following

factors: expectations of sugar production during SY2017, sugar mills’ own actions on

supplies depending upon their inventory-holding capacity, and the Government action

on price control measures.”

Crop prices are beginning to fall as the bumper harvest reaches the market. Soybean

prices are falling steadily, down 10-12% from last year.The government has estimated

soybean output to rise 50% this year. In the Indore market, a major hub for soybean,

farmers were getting Rs 3000 a quintal, which at factory the price was Rs 3200 a

quintal. Overall with production looking good, prices could further come down, said

Anand Garg of Anand Trading Company, Indore. Similarly, Davish Jain, chairman of

the Soybean Processors Association of India said that the crop was looking good and

arrivals were expected to jump in the next fortnight ahead of Diwali, leading to a further

slump in prices. Jain who has just come back from a visit of Thailand, Philippines,

Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan, said the export opportunity looked promising this year.

As per industry estimates, India can export 3-4 million tonnes of soymeal this year

compared to just 0.4 million tonnes last year.

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