commodity report 20 april 2015 ways2capital

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Page 1: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital
Page 2: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRYDATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 JUN 2015 3848 3788 3728 3706 3668 3646 3608 3548 3488

SYBEANIDR 19 JUN 2015 3848 3788 3728 3706 3668 3646 3608 3548 3488

RMSEED 20 MAY2015

3909 3836 3763 3737 3690 3664 3617 3544 3471

JEERAUNJHA 20 MAY2015

19943 19323 18703 18496 18083 17876 17463 16843 16223

CHANA 20 MAY2015

4142 4082 4022 3991 3962 3931 3902 3842 3782

CASTORSEED 20 MAY2015

4002 3890 3778 3717 3666 3605 3554 3442 3330

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRYDATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 JUN 2015 4213 4030 3847 3766 3664 3583 3481 3298 3115

SYBEANIDR 19 JUN 2015 4212 4029 3846 3765 3663 3582 3480 3297 3114

RMSEED 20 MAY2015

4128 3977 3826 3769 3675 3618 3524 3373 3222

JEERAUNJHA 20 MAY2015

21863 20523 19183 18736 17843 17396 16503 15163 13826

CHANA 20 MAY2015

4545 4348 4151 4055 3954 3858 3757 3560 3363

CASTORSEED 20 MAY2015

4254 4067 3880 3768 3693 3581 3506 3319 3132

Page 3: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRYDATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30 APR 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110

COPPER 30 APR 399 394 389 386 384 381 378 379 368

CRUDE OIL 20 APR 3724 3650 3580 3534 3508 3462 3436 3364 3292

GOLD 05 JUN 27183 26960 26737 26412 26514 26189 26291 26068 25845

LEAD 30 APR 132 130 129 128 127 126 125 123 121

NATURAL GAS 27 APR 176 173 169 167 165 163 161 159 157

NICKEL 30 APR 839 823 807 796 791 780 775 759 743

SILVER 05 MAY 38134 37613 37092 36773 36571 36252 36050 355 35008

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4ALUMINIUM 30 APR 130 124 118 116 113 110 107 104 101

COPPER 30 APR 433 415 397 390 379 372 361 343 325

CRUDE OIL 20 APR 4477 4127 3777 3633 3427 3283 3077 2727 2377

GOLD 05 JUN 28053 27595 27137 26972 26679 26514 26221 25763 25305

LEAD 30 APR 143 137 131 129 125 123 120 114 108

NATURAL GAS 27 APR 200 188 175 170 162 157 150 137 125

NICKEL 30 APR 903 864 825 805 786 766 747 708 669

SILVER 05 MAY 39385 38395 37405 36930 36415 35940 35425 34435 33445

ZINC 30 APR 149 145 142 140 138 136 134 132 130

ALUMINIUM 30 APR 130 124 118 116 113 110 107 104 101

Page 4: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

✍ MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS

✍ Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2015: Moody's Analytics:Indian economy is expected to grow marginally higher at 7.3 percent during the year comparedwith 7.2 percent in 2014 and interest rate cuts will buttress private sector spending, said a groupcompany of global rating agency Moody's.

"Our tracking model suggests that first quarter GDP growth is tracking around 7.3 percent , aslowdown from prior quarters. But we expect this softness will prove temporary withimproving domestic demand to help India's GDP grow 7.3 percent for all of 2015,"

International Monetary Fund projected that India will overtake China as the fastest growingemerging economy in 2015-16 by clocking a growth rate of 7.5 percent , helped by its recentpolicy initiatives, pick-up in investments and lower oil prices.

World Bank too has similar GDP growth forecast for India for the current fiscal year. India'seconomy is on a cyclical upswing and forward-looking indicators suggest domestic demand isgathering momentum.

China's economic growth slows to 7% in Q1, six-year low:

China's economy grew 7.0 percent in the first quarter, as expected but still its slowest rate in sixyears, reinforcing bets that policymakers will take more steps to bolster growth. Economistspolled by Agency had expected China's gross domestic product (GDP)to rise 7.0 percent inJanuary-March compared with a year ago.

In the last quarter of 2014, China's economy grew 7.3 percent on an annual basis. On aquarterly basis, economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent between January and March afterseasonal adjustments, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, compared withgrowth of 1.5 percent in the previous three months.

Factory output climbed 5.6 percent in March from a year ago, below forecasts for a 6.9 percentgain. Fixed-asset investment, a vital driver of the economy, rose 13.5 percent compared withthe same month last year. Analysts had expected a rise of 13.8 percent. Retail sales expanded10.2 percent compared with expectations for a 10.9 percent gain. The disappointing datasupports analysts' predictions for China's economic growth to slide to 7 percent this year, thelowest in a quarter of a century.

Page 5: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

Two big risks for emerging world: World Bank president:

The impact of lower commodity prices on big emerging market exporters and the prospects ofhigher interest rates in the United States present major risks to the developing world, Dr JimYong Kim, president of the World Bank Group.

"What we're saying to the developing markets is you've really got to now get serious aboutstructural reforms," he said in an interview on "Squawk on the Street." Prospects are low forLatin America this year, and Russia, Brazil and Nigeria are creating drag on the globaleconomy in the face of lower oil prices and a broader decline in commodities, he said.

A rate hike by the Federal Reserve expected to come later this year could also createheadwinds, Kim said. In the past, tighter monetary policy in the United States has negativelyimpacted emerging markets because investors rein in money as capital becomes moreexpensive.

✍ BULLION

Gold firms near $1,200 but poised for second weekly dip:

Gold firmed around USD 1,200 an ounce on Friday but the metal was headed for its secondstraight weekly drop, weighed down by speculation over the timing of an interest rate hike bythe US Federal Reserve.

✍ FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to USD 1,200.10 an ounce by 0040 GMT, after dropping 0.3percent on Thursday. The metal is down 0.6 percent for the week.

* Investors are closely watching US economic data to gauge when the Fed will begin to raiseinterest rates. Strong data could prompt the US central bank to soon hike rates, a move thatcould dent demand for bullion.

* However, despite sluggish data and a softer dollar on Thursday, bullion logged in losses onmixed signals regarding the rate hike.

* Data on Thursday showed US housing starts rose far less than expected in March and factoryactivity in the mid-Atlantic region grew modestly this month, suggesting the economy couldstruggle to rebound from a soft patch hit in the first quarter.

* There are expectations growth will rebound in the second quarter, but the lukewarm datasuggest the momentum will probably not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to startraising interest rates before September.

Page 6: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

* Fed officials on Thursday were at public odds over when the US central bank should startraising rates.

* Physical demand for gold has also been subdued with prices holding near the key USD 1,200mark.

* Investors will be watching more US data due later in the day and the dollar for trading cues.

✍ MARKET NEWS

* The dollar wallowed at its lowest in over a week against a basket of major currencies early onFriday, having suffered yet another setback overnight in the hands of more underwhelming USeconomic data. Silver prices likely to trade negative:

Silver rose 1.5 percent at $16.35 an ounce. Manufacturing activity growth in New York Stateunexpectedly contracted in April, weakening for a third straight month as the pace of neworders fell to a multi-year low, a New York Federal Reserve survey showed on Wednesday.

The New York Fed's Empire State general business conditions index fell to -1.19 in April fromMarch's 6.90. This was the first negative read for the index since December. Economists polledby Reuters had expected the index to rise to 7.0 this month. A reading above zero indicatesexpansion.

✍ BASE METAL

Copper hits near 4-week low ahead of China growth data:

* Some Chile copper output still down after floods -CESCO

* LME tin breaks below $16,000 T for first time since June 2010 (Updates with closing prices)

LONDON, April 14 - Copper hit a near four-week low on Tuesday as concern grew overdemand in top consumer China a day before the country gives an update on its economicgrowth. China, which consumes some 45 percent of the world's copper, will report grossdomestic product for the first quarter on Wednesday and traders say there are risks the figuremay come in weaker than expected after poor trade news this week.

The Asian giant's export sales shrank 15 percent in March, deepening concern about sputteringgrowth.

Page 7: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

"This gradual managed slowdown (in China) will continue and that's not good for copper,""Second-quarter demand is expected to improve, but that will just stop (copper) pricesweakening significantly. We still expect a surplus of about 300,000 tonnes (this year)."

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped to a low of $5,900 a tonne, itsweakest since March 20, before paring losses to close at $5,950, down 0.7 percent.

Copper has consolidated since hitting 5-1/2 year lows in January.

Supply disruptions limited copper's losses, however. Copper output in the Atacama region ofChile that was hardest hit by floods last month is still almost completely at a standstill.

In other metals, tin slid to $15,865 a tonne, its weakest since June 2010, but rebounded to bebid at $16,275, up 1.1 percent, after failing to trade in closing open outcry rings. Prices havestruggled as slowing global growth has hurt electronics demand and supply from Myanmar hasrisen. LME nickel slid to a near six-year low of $12,205 a tonne before bouncing back to end at$12,550, up 1.2 percent.

The metal has been under pressure from rising LME stocks, destocking by stainless steel millsand weak Chinese demand, though some analysts are starting to call the bottom.

"You've got some signs that demand is starting to pick up, but there's a lot of nickel sloshingaround," said analyst Leon Westgate at ICBC Standard Bank in London.

"You're going to have to start eating into LME stocks to give a visual indicator to the marketthat things are tightening up before you start to see people piling in on a speculative basis."

Benchmark zinc shed 0.6 percent to close at $2,194 a tonne and lead fell 0.6 percent to $1,979.The two metals have rallied in recent weeks but failed to break their 200-day moving averages,a technical indicator that sent a sell signal to chart-based traders.

✍ ENERGY

NYMEX crude weaker in Asia as investors mull supply, production curbs:Crude oil prices dropped in early Asia on Friday with investors noting massive oversupplythreats as well as efforts to curb production, making for a mixed outlook. On the New YorkMercantile Exchange, WTI crude for May delivery fell 0.45% to $56.46 a barrel. Overnight,crude oil futures rose modestly on Thursday extending recent gains, following Opec forecasts

Page 8: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

of a slowdown in U.S. production in the coming months.

On the Intercontinental Exchange, Brent crude for June delivery edged up 0.54 or 0.85% to63.86 a barrel on Thursday. Energy traders are intently focused on supply, as crude storage inthe U.S. for the week ending April 10 reached 483.1 million barrels, the highest level in at least80 years.

In its monthly market watch released on Thursday, Opec said U.S. oil supply would increase to13.65 millions barrels per day through the second quarter before flattening for the remainder ofthe year. Separately, Opec said Saudi Arabia, its largest producer, increased output for Marchby 390,000 a day to 10.1 million bpd for the month.

The spike in output pushed crude production to a near record-high and the highest by theoil-rich area since September, 2013. The forecasts come on the heels of expectations fordeclining shale field production in the U.S. Earlier this week, the Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) forecasted that shale production next month will drop from its currentlevel of 5.02 million barrels in April to 4.98 million bpd in May.

Reductions in output in the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in South Texaswill spur the decline, according to the EIA. The U.S. is dangerously close to reaching fullstorage capacity for crude, a development which could force producers to slow output. Inearly-April, Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi said his nation would only slash oil production ifother producers followed.

Geopolitical issues continued to weigh on crude, as Al Qaeda operatives reportedly gainedcontrol of a major airport in Yemen. Shiite-led Houthi rebels have battled Sunni Muslims fromSaudi Arabia in the area since late March when a Houthi advance forced Yemen president AbedRabbo Mansour Hadi to flee the country. Al Qaeda also reportedly captured a major seaport andoil terminal in Southern Yemen.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

NCDEX ties up with DD Kisan to provide agri-price information

NCDEX has tied up with public broadcaster Prasar Bharati for providing spot and futuresprices of farm items to the soon-to-be-launched DD Kisan' channel.

Besides providing data for price tickers, NCDEX will also provide news stories, expert analysis

Page 9: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

and feature stories to showcase the economic turnaround stories from hinterlands and ruralIndia.

A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in this regard last week.The governmentand Prasar Bharati are preparing in full swing forlaunching the channel at the earliest.

In his 2014-15 Budget speech, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had allocated Rs 100 crore forlaunch of Kisan channel to provide real-time information on various farming and agriculturalmatters.

✍ NCDEX to set up global exchange at GIFT City

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) is planning to establish aninternational commodity and derivatives exchange at the International Financial ServicesCentre (IFSC) in GIFT city in Gandhinagar.

NCDEX intends to develop an international standard commodity and derivatives exchangeproviding electronic platform for facilitating trading,clearing and settlement of securities,commodities, interest rates, currencies, other classes of assets and derivatives by globalinvestors in IFSC in GIFT City subject to necessary approvals and operating guidelines for theInternational Financial Services Centre.

Investment and starting time is yet to be decided by the company as MoU has been just signed.

GIFT SEZ has been notified as an International Financial Services Centre by Government ofIndia as India’s first International Financial Services Centre.

✍ Chana

Chana continued to be rising last week as rising domestic demand supported the prices.Reports of lower production along with crop damage prospects supported the prices further.Profit booking at the higher levels was also noted by end of the week. Rates found some strongresistanceat near the psychological 4000 mark.

Page 10: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

At NCDEX Chana May contract rose more than 2.86% touched high of 4050 level onthursday.Chana May contract is likely to trade bullish for both short term and intra day withshort term support at 3900 and resistance at 4100.

As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, production of pulses estimated at 18.43 milliontonnes is lower by 1.35 million tonnes than the last year’s production. Chana productionestimated at 8.28 million tons vs 9.53 million tons last year.

In order to keep prices for Pulses under check, the Govt has decided to extent duty-free importstill Sept. Unseasonal rain in March brought a heavy loss to crops of pulses.

As per USDA, expected pulses production in US is up by 8% to 2,232,630 MT during 2014from last year. Reports from Canada indicate chickpea production there expected to fall to 0.14million MT in 2014- 15—down from 0.18 million MT in 2013-14due to lower yield.

✍ Soyabean

Soyabean futures exhibited mixed trend on NCDEX as April contract traded higher on accountof dwindling supplies from the major producing belts. While June contract traded lower onlimited buying support in the spot market.

The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 3641.00/Quintal, up by 0.05% or Rs 2.00 fromits previous closing of Rs 3639.00. The open interest of the contract were 4100 lots.

The contract for June delivery was trading at Rs 3638.00/Quintal, down by 0.16% or Rs 6.00from its previous closing of Rs 3644.00. The open interest of the contract were 80650 lots onNCDEX.

✍ Castor seed

castor seed futures traded down on NCDEX as traders booked their profits at existing higherlevels with low demand in the spot market. Further, higher arrivals of new crop from the majorproducing belts too supported prices’ downside.

The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 3619.00, down by 0.77% or Rs 28.00 from its

Page 11: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

previous closing of Rs 3647.00. The open interest of the contract were 3030 lots.

The contract for May delivery was trading at Rs 3686.00, down by 0.51% or Rs 19.00 from itsprevious closing of Rs 3705.00. The open interest of the contract were 140580 lots on NCDEX.

✍ Jeera

Jeera futures traded marginally higher on NCDEX as investors increased their holdings due tostrong demand in the spot market. Further, expectation of lower production following adverseweather conditions in major producing belts with lower acreage, too supported Jeera prices'uptrend.

The contract for April delivery was trading at Rs 17500.00, up by 0.03% or Rs 5.00 from itsprevious closing of Rs 17495.00. The open interestof the contract were 288.00 lots.

The contract for May delivery was trading at Rs 17805.00, up by 0.17% or Rs 30.00 from itsprevious closing of Rs 17775.00. The open interestof the contract 19923.00 lots on NCDEX.

Page 12: Commodity Report 20 April 2015 Ways2Capital

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