E

BULLION METALS OUTLOOK -

GOLD - Gold prices traded lower for this week tradind Sessions due to stronger US dollar. Prices traded

down over 2% this week after hitting its important weekly resistance at $ 1220. We can expect Gold

prices to trade bearish till $ 1170 to $ 1150 in coming days. We can expect a trend reversal for a

medium term target of $ 1130 to $ 1100 levels. Gold in MCX Futures trading lower for the first time in

the last five weeks. Prices down over 1.6% and finding its support at Rs. 28100 for near term. Earlier we

can see prices not able to sustain above its important key resistance at Rs.28800 levels. We can expect

prices to trade bearish in coming days till Rs.27700 to Rs.27500 levels. The Significance levels for Next

week is 28870-28935 is Up side and 28100-27960 is Down Side.

GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - The statistical and technical indicators suggest that gold was going ahead and that it was

due for a correction. one key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence, which is also

known as MACD, and on a weekly basis the MACD and Parabolic SAR are indicating that the next

move for gold will be up. As Gold prices and gold mining stocks approach resistance we will keep an

eye on their performance relative to the movements in other asset classes. A pullback from resistance is

very likely but the question is if the pullback evolves into a deeper correction or a bullish consolidation.

In the meantime we have focused on buying quality and value in the junior space while maintaining

some cash. The good buying opportunity we noted a month ago has passed but another one will come

soon one way or another MCX gold is getting support at 28150 and below same could see a test of

27980 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28800, a move above could see prices testing

28950.

Monday, 30 January 2017

SILVER - Silver trading weak for the fourth day in a row, refer our continuous updates that Silver

medium term trend remain bearish and expect to fall back to $16 to $15.5 levels. We can expect even a

deeper correction below $15.5 till $15 mark. MCX Silver Futures looking for a sharper downside in

coming days. Next downside is on the row below Rs.40500 till Rs.39000 to Rs.38000 levels shortly.

The Crucial levels of Silver for Next week is 41810-41980 is up side and 40850-40520 is Down side.

Detail of Chart - On the Above Given Daily Chart of Silver is preserved the psychological support

39200. MCX Silver is getting support at 40850 and below same could see a test of 39590 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 41685, a move above could see prices testing 41950.

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-DEC-2016 130 128 126 125 124 123 122 120 118

COPPER 28-FEB-2016 421 415 409 406 403 400 397 391 385

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3944 3840 3736 3672 3632 3568 3528 3424 3320

GOLD 03-FEB-2016 29168 28870 28572 28462 28274 28164 27976 27678 27380

LEAD 30-DEC-2016 172 167 162 159 157 154 152 147 142

NATURAL

GAS

27-DEC-2015 251 243 235 231 227 223 219 211 203

NICKEL 30-DEC-2016 712 690 668 657 646 635 624 610 602

SILVER 03-MARCH-2016 45021 43752 42483 41957 41214 40688 39945 38676 37407

ZINC 30-DEC-2016 199 195 191 189 187 185 183 179 175

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-DEC-2016 140 135 130 127 125 122 120 115 110

COPPER 28-FEB-2016 447 432 417 411 402 396 387 372 357

CRUDE OIL 19-OCT-2016 3989 3868 3747 3678 3626 3557 3505 3384 3263

GOLD 03-FEB-2016 30748 29976 29204 28778 28432 28006 27660 26888 26116

LEAD 30-DEC-2016 182 174 166 161 158 153 150 142 134

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015 264 251 238 233 225 220 212 199 186

NICKEL 30-DEC-2016 772 732 692 669 652 629 612 572 532

SILVER 03-MARCH-2016 45637 44183 42729 42081 41275 40627 39821 38367 36916

ZINC 30-DEC-2016 209 202 195 191 188 184 181 174 167

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 68.72 68.42 68.12 67.98 67.34 67.08 66.92 66.68 66.24

EURINR 26-OCT2016 76.67 75.06 73.93 71.48 71.01 70.82 69.86 68.03 67.50

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 89.63 88.42 84.66 82.58 80.85 79.16 77.82 75.14 73.63

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 62.52 61.98 59.47 57.95 56.88 56.46 56.05 55.85 55..43

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 26-OCT2016 69.83 68.64 68.16 68.02 67.94 67.24 67.04 66.84 66.28

EURINR 26-OCT2016 80.92 78.54 76.51 72.80 69.52 68.16 67.12 66.03 64.17

GBPINR 26-OCT2016 96.53 94.35 91.14 88.17 84.15 82.36 80.52 78.36 74.13

JPYINR 26-OCT2016 69.65 67.58 65.36 63.52 61.79 58.14 56.96 51.28 50.03

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JAN-2016 727 720 713 708 706 701 699 692 685

SYBEANIDR 20-JAN-2016 3113 3089 3065 3056 3041 3032 3017 2993 2969

RMSEED 20-JAN-2016 4013 3967 3921 3897 3875 3851 3829 3783 3737

JEERAUNJHA 20-JAN-2016 20443 19628 18813 18357 17998 17542 17183 16368 15553

GUARSEED10 20-JAN-2016 3351 3326 3301 3291 3276 3266 3251 3226 3201

TMC 20-APR-2016 7113 6981 6849 6773 6717 6641 6585 6453 6321

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JAN-2016 763 746 729 722 712 705 695 678 661

SYBEANIDR 20-JAN-2016 3387 3281 3175 3110 3069 3004 2963 2857 2751

RMSEED 20-JAN-2016 4184 4087 3990 3932 3893 3835 3796 3699 3602

JEERAUNJHA 20-JAN-2016 20443 19628 18813 18357 17998 17542 17183 16368 15553

GUARSEED10 20-JAN-2016 3787 3629 3471 3377 3313 3219 3155 2997 2839

TMC 20-APR-2016 8126 7690 7254 6976 6818 6540 6382 5946 5510

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍

Gold ended little changed on Friday, after weaker-than-expected figures on U.S. fourth quarter growth

dampened expectations for a faster rate of interest rate hikes this year. Gold for April delivery settled at

$1,190.0 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The precious metal was 1.35% lower for the week, as the stronger U.S. dollar weighed. The annual rate

of economic growth slowed to 1.9% in the three months to December the Commerce Department

reported Friday, slowing sharply from the 3.5% rate of growth seen in the third quarter. The economy

grew just 1.6% in 2016 as a whole, the slowest rate of growth since 2011. The slowdown in growth

prompted speculation that the Federal Reserve will avoid hiking interest rates too quickly. Investors also

remained cautious as they pondered the economic implications of President Donald Trump's pledges of

increased fiscal spending, tax cuts and protectionism. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was

at $ 17.16 a troy ounce late Friday and ended the week little changed. Copper was trading at $ 2.69 a

pound late Friday and ended the week up 2.86%, and platinum was up 0.69% on the day at $ 988.45 an

ounce. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls

report for January as well as Wednesday’s policy statement by the Fed. Investors will also be watching

central bank meetings in Japan and the UK. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a

list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 30

Financial markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation.

The U.S. is to release figures on personal income and spending as well as a report on pending home

sales.

Tuesday, January 31

Markets in China will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which

outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement

is to be followed by a press conference.

The euro zone is to release preliminary estimates of consumer price inflation and fourth quarter GDP.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.

Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP.

The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Alberta.

Wednesday, February 1

Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.

China is to release survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

New Zealand is to publish its quarterly employment report.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

The European Commission is to publish its latest economic forecasts for the European Union.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report for January and the Institute for Supply

Management is to release its manufacturing PMI.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a monetary policy statement.

Thursday, February 2

Markets in China will remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Australia is to release data on building approvals and the trade balance.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

The Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish the minutes of its monetary

policy meeting along with its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney, along with other

policymakers will also hold a press conference to discuss the inflation report.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Slovenia.

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims and labor costs.

Friday, February 3

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak.

The U.S. is to round up the week data on factory orders and the non-farm payrolls report for January,

while the ISM is to release its services PMI.

Gold demand in India improved this week, boosted by a fall in prices overseas, although some

consumers waited to see if hopes for an import duty cut in the government's budget next week will be

realised.

Global gold prices on Friday hit a two-week low on a stronger dollar keeping the metal on track to

record their first weekly loss since late December. "Wedding season demand has improved. The price

correction is also luring in customers," said Harshad Ajmera, the proprietor of JJ Gold House, a

wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. Dealers in India, the world's second-largest consumer

of the metal, were charging a premium of up to $2 an ounce this week over official domestic prices,

unchanged from last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Few jewellers are

delaying purchases expecting import duty cut in the budget, but some think this may not happen," said a

Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. The bullion industry has been urging a reduction in the duty

to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013

in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit.

"The government is going to implement GST this year. At the time of implementation, it may reduce

import duty to adjust overall duty structure on gold," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.

The trade ministry has requested the finance ministry to cut the import duty to 6 percent, according to a

senior government official. The Indian government will present on Feb. 1 its budget for the 2017/18

financial year starting April 1. the local market, gold prices MAUc1 were trading around 28,150 rupees

per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees last month, the lowest level since Feb. 2, 2016

Demand in China waned further, ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year Holiday, forcing premiums

in the top-consumer nation to narrow to nearly $6 from $14 last week. "It has been extremely quiet

despite the correction in prices," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong

Kong. In Hong Kong and Singapore, premiums were mostly unchanged from previous week's premium

of around $1 - $1.40 an ounce. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong rose 2.7 percent

in December over the previous month. in Tokyo were flat against a discount of 50 cents last week,

traders said.

Gold fell to a two-week low on Thursday as the dollar firmed and equity markets rallied, but

expectations that the greenback's climb may be coming to an end helped limit losses. Spot gold prices

XAU= were down 1 percent at $1,187.93 an ounce by 3:02 p.m. EST, after tapping $1,184.03, its

lowest since Jan. 11. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled down 0.7 percent at $ 1,189.80. A stronger U.S.

currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies,

potentially curbing demand. "The dollar is a little bit stronger this morning, yields are up a bit and that's

why gold is below $ 1,200," U.S. Treasury yields later weakened, but the general strength in equities

and yields have been fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump's signals that he plans to increase public

spending. Expectations of a boost to growth have recently had a diminishing impact on the dollar.

"Trump's victory has unleashed one of the strongest expressions of business and financial optimism in

history, starkly affecting variables central to gold's short-term trading patterns. "Should our suspicions

bear out that reigning euphoria proves short-lived, recent market dislocations will provide excellent

entry points for a wide array of investment assets."

Investors abandoning gold can be seen in the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest

gold-backed exchange-traded fund, which fell 0.6 percent to 799.07 tonnes on Wednesday. Also

undermining sentiment was weak physical demand in India due to higher prices, while Chinese demand

is weaker ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, traders said. Palladium XPD= slid 1 percent to $722 an

ounce, after touching a three-week low at $711.15. It fell more than 7 percent on Wednesday, its worst

one-day fall since April 2013. "Previously, palladium had failed on three consecutive days to exceed the

psychologically important $800 per troy ounce mark, giving rise to a more gloomy technical picture,"

Palladium is used in autocatalysts and has been boosted by expectations of stronger demand for cars but

the outlook for growth is now less bright. "Car ownership rates in the U.S. peaked a couple of years ago,

which means most of the cars sold are just replacement demand," Menke said. "China has cut car

subsidies so sales there will probably be lower this year." silver XAG= fell 0.9 percent to $16.79 an

ounce, while platinum XPT= inched up 0.08 percent to $ 978.50.

Gold prices were at a two-week low in European morning trade on Thursday, as stocks around the

world extended a rally after the Dow climbed past 20,000 for the first time overnight, dampening the

metal’s safe-haven appeal. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange fell $2.00, or around 0.2%, to $1,195.85 a troy ounce by 4:10AM ET, after

declining $13.00, or about 1.1%, a day earlier. Prices of the yellow metal slumped to their lowest since

January 13 at $ 1,192.60 on Wednesday, pulling back from two-month highs of $ 1,219.40 touched

earlier this week. Global stocks remained in full rally-mode on Thursday as investors snapped up

equities amid an improved corporate earnings outlook, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as

gold and government bonds.

The Dow closed atop the 20,000-mark for the first time on Wednesday, boosted by solid earnings.

Investors are also turning more optimistic as President Donald Trump begins to offer more details of his

policies.

Trump signed two executive orders on Tuesday to move forward with construction of the controversial

Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines, rolling back key Obama administration environmental

actions in favor of expanding energy infrastructure. He also signed orders rolling back some regulation

and environmental rules, in order to expedite approval of infrastructure projects. But concerns over his

protectionist stance remain after Trump signed executive orders on immigration on Wednesday,

including one of border security and the intent to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Earlier this

week, the president signed to formally withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

and vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with leaders of Canada and

Mexico. Market players will continue to focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax

reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation, as well as insight regarding policies on China and the

domestic economy. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-

weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 100.10 in European morning trade, after falling to a

seven-week low of 99.77 overnight. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery dropped 6.2

cents, or 0.4%, to $16.91 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.4% to $985.20, while

palladium added 0.6% to $740.17 an ounce, after plunging 7.5% in the prior session. Elsewhere in

metals trading, copper futures rose 0.8 cents, or about 0.3%, to $2.718 a pound, the most since June

2015, amid hopes for an infrastructure boost in the U.S.

Gold fell to a two-week low on Thursday as the dollar firmed and equity markets rallied, but

expectations that the greenback's climb may be coming to an end helped limit losses.

Spot gold prices XAU= were down 1 percent at $1,187.93 an ounce by 3:02 p.m. EST (2002 GMT),

after tapping $1,184.03, its lowest since Jan. 11. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled down 0.7 percent at

$1,189.80.

A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other

currencies, potentially curbing demand.

"The dollar is a little bit stronger this morning, yields are up a bit and that's why gold is below $1,200,"

said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

U.S. Treasury yields later weakened, but the general strength in equities and yields have been fueled by

U.S. President Donald Trump's signals that he plans to increase public spending. Expectations of a

boost to growth have recently had a diminishing impact on the dollar. "Trump's victory has unleashed

one of the strongest expressions of business and financial optimism in history, starkly affecting

variables central to gold's short-term trading patterns," Should our suspicions bear out that reigning

euphoria proves short-lived, recent market dislocations will provide excellent entry points for a wide

array of investment assets."

Investors abandoning gold can be seen in the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest

gold-backed exchange-traded fund, which fell 0.6 percent to 799.07 tonnes on Wednesday. Also

undermining sentiment was weak physical demand in India due to higher prices, while Chinese demand

is weaker ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, traders said. Palladium XPD= slid 1 percent to $722 an

ounce, after touching a three-week low at $711.15. It fell more than 7 percent on Wednesday, its worst

one-day fall since April 2013. "Previously, palladium had failed on three consecutive days to exceed the

psychologically important $800 per troy ounce mark, giving rise to a more gloomy technical picture,"

Palladium is used in autocatalysts and has been boosted by expectations of stronger demand for cars but

the outlook for growth is now less bright. "Car ownership rates in the U.S. peaked a couple of years ago,

which means most of the cars sold are just replacement demand," Menke said. "China has cut car

subsidies so sales there will probably be lower this year." silver XAG= fell 0.9 percent to $ 16.79 an

ounce, while platinum XPT= inched up 0.08 percent to $ 978.50.

Gold prices were at a two-week low in European morning trade on Thursday, as stocks around the

world extended a rally after the Dow climbed past 20,000 for the first time overnight, dampening the

metal’s safe-haven appeal. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange fell $2.00, or around 0.2%, to $1,195.85 a troy ounce by 4:10AM ET, after

declining $13.00, or about 1.1%, a day earlier. Prices of the yellow metal slumped to their lowest since

January 13 at $1,192.60 on Wednesday, pulling back from two-month highs of $1,219.40 touched

earlier this week. Global stocks remained in full rally-mode on Thursday as investors snapped up

equities amid an improved corporate earnings outlook, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as

gold and government bonds. The Dow closed atop the 20,000-mark for the first time on Wednesday,

boosted by solid earnings. Investors are also turning more optimistic as President Donald Trump begins

to offer more details of his policies. Trump signed two executive orders on Tuesday to move forward

with construction of the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines, rolling back key

Obama administration environmental actions in favor of expanding energy infrastructure. He also

signed orders rolling back some regulation and environmental rules, in order to expedite approval of

infrastructure projects. But concerns over his protectionist stance remain after Trump signed executive

orders on immigration on Wednesday, including one of border security and the intent to build a wall

along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Earlier this week, the president signed to formally withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

trade deal and vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with leaders of Canada

and Mexico. Market players will continue to focus on Trump for further details on his promises of tax

reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation, as well as insight regarding policies on China and the

domestic economy. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-

weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 100.10 in European morning trade, after falling to a

seven-week low of 99.77 overnight. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery dropped 6.2

cents, or 0.4%, to $16.91 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.4% to $985.20, while

palladium added 0.6% to $740.17 an ounce, after plunging 7.5% in the prior session.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rose 0.8 cents, or about 0.3%, to $2.718 a pound, the most

since June 2015, amid hopes for an infrastructure boost in the U.S.

Gold prices edged lower during European morning trade on Wednesday, moving further away from this

week's two-month high as the metal’s safe-haven appeal was dampened amid a rally in global equity

markets.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $8.15, or

around 0.7%, to $1,202.65 a troy ounce by 3:50AM ET , after declining $4.80, or 0.4%, a day earlier.

Prices of the yellow metal jumped to a two-month peak of $1,219.40 on Monday. Global stocks were in

rally-mode, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting record highs on Tuesday, as investors snapped up

equities amid an improved corporate earnings outlook, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as

gold and government bonds. Market players will continue to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump for

further details on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation, as well as insight

regarding policies on China and the domestic economy.

Trump signed two executive orders on Tuesday to move forward with construction of the controversial

Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines, rolling back key Obama administration environmental

actions in favor of expanding energy infrastructure. He also met with chief executives of the Big Three

U.S. automakers to push for more cars to be built in the U.S. Earlier this week, Trump signed to

formally withdraw the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, distancing America

from its Asian allies. He also vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with

leaders of Canada and Mexico.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six

major currencies, was at 100.27 in European morning trade, not far from a seven-week low of 99.88

touched earlier this week. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery dropped 18.3 cents, or

1.1%, to $17.00 a troy ounce during morning hours in London. Meanwhile, platinum lost 1.5% to

$992.85, while palladium slumped 1.6% to $782.90 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper

futures rose 0.8 cents, or about 0.3%, to $2.716 a pound amid hopes for an infrastructure boost in the

U.S.

Gold prices edged lower during European morning trade on Tuesday, pulling back from the prior

session's two-month peak as the dollar firmed after earlier losses.

Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped $

2.00, or around 0.2%, to $ 1,213.55 a troy ounce by 4:10AM ET, after rallying $ 10.70, or 0.9%, a day

earlier. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket

of six major currencies, was up 0.2% at 100.15, recovering after slumping to a seven-week low of 99.88

earlier. The dollar sold off after President Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Steven

Mnuchin said that an "excessively strong" dollar can have negative short-term impacts on the U.S.

economy. Mnuchin is still awaiting confirmation by the Senate, which has yet to schedule a vote. Prices

of the yellow metal jumped to $ 1,219.40 on Monday, a level not seen since November 22, as the U.S.

dollar tumbled amid uncertainty around the economic policies of new U.S. President Donald Trump. In

his latest executive order, Trump signed to formally withdraw the U.S. from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific

Partnership trade deal, distancing America from its Asian allies.

Trump has also vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with leaders of Canada

and Mexico. Global financial markets will continue to focus on Trump for further details on his

promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation, as well as insight regarding policies

on China and the domestic economy. The president vowed “massive” cuts in taxes and said he could

reduce regulations by "75% or more" to help businesses create more jobs in the U.S. in a meeting with

top executives of U.S. companies at the White House on Monday. Trump also reiterated his pledge to

impose a hefty border tax. Trump plans to meet with automotive executives at the White House on

Tuesday. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery dipped 3.4 cents, or 0.2%, to $ 17.15 a

troy ounce during morning hours in London. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.6% to $985.35, while

palladium added 0.9% to $ 778.33 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rose 0.6 cents,

or about 0.3%, to $ 2.654 a pound.

Gold prices rose sharply during European morning trade on Monday, hitting the strongest level in

around two months as the U.S. dollar tumbled amid uncertainty around the economic policies of new

U.S. President Donald Trump. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange touched a session high of $ 1,219.40 a troy ounce, a level not seen since

November 22. It was last at $ 1,214.50 by 3:10AM ET, up almost $10.00, or 0.8%. The U.S. dollar

index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies,

was down 0.5% at 100.25 in early trade, after slumping to a seven-week low of 100.17 earlier. The

dollar sold off after President Trump struck a protectionist tone in his inauguration speech on Friday,

disappointing investors who hoped to hear further details on his promises of tax cuts and other stimulus.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes

dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Investors will get back to the

business of watching economic data for fresh indications on the health of the economy in the week

ahead, with Friday's advanced reading for U.S. growth in the spotlight. Besides the GDP report, this

week's calendar also features U.S. data on existing home sales on Tuesday, initial jobless claims and

new home sales on Thursday, followed by durable goods orders and revised consumer sentiment on

Friday. A recent string of solid data reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to

warrant higher interest rates in the months ahead.

The Federal Reserve indicated last month that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017,

according to a forecast of interest rates from members of the central bank, known as the dot-plot.

However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the

course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. A delay in raising interest

rates would be seen as positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery tacked on 11.0 cents, or about 0.7%, at $ 17.14 a

troy ounce during morning hours in London.

Gold ended higher on Friday, buoyed by the weaker dollar as the inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S.

president fueled uncertainty about the direction of fiscal and economic policy. Gold for February

delivery settled up 0.67% at $1,209.5 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The metal was 0.75% higher for the week, helped by a broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. The U.S.

dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major

currencies, was down 0.33% to 100.77 late Friday. The index has fallen 1.49% so far this month amid

worries over Trump's protectionist stance and following recent remarks in which he said the dollar was

too strong. On Friday, Trump said his administration would put "America first" and also promised new

roads, bridges and highways. But market sentiment was hit by the negative tone of the speech, which

underlined uncertainty over how Trump will govern. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at

$17.09 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week with gains of 1.59%. Copper was trading at $2.61 a

pound late Friday and ended the week down 2.35% as traders locked in profits after prices hit

seven-week peaks. Platinum was up 2.66% on the day at $981.8 an ounce, trimming the week’s losses

to 0.6%. In the week ahead, the economic calendar is light but Trump's policy plans in his first days in

office are likely to dominate headlines. Investors will also be awaiting a first look at fourth quarter

growth from the U.S. on Friday and from the U.K. a day earlier.

Tuesday’s data on euro area private sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events

likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 23

Canada is to publish data on wholesale sales.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Italy.

Tuesday, January 24

The euro zone is to release data on private sector business activity.

The U.K. High Court is to deliver a ruling regarding the government's ability to bypass parliament and

initiate Britain’s exit from the European Union by triggering Article 50.

The U.K. is also to release data on public sector borrowing.

The U.S. is to report on existing home sales.

Wednesday, January 25

Australia is to publish data on inflation.

The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Thursday, January 26

New Zealand is to publish its monthly inflation report.

The U.K. is to release the preliminary reading on fourth quarter growth.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims and new home sales.

Friday, January 27

Shanghai stock exchange will be shut for a holiday.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a preliminary estimate of fourth quarter economic growth, as well

as a report on durable goods orders and revised data on consumer sentiment.

Gold demand slowed in India this week as buyers Postponed purchases on expectation of a cut in import

duty and after a rebound in prices, while it was tepid across other major trading centres in Asia. In India,

the world's second-largest consumer of the metal, dealers were charging a premium of up to $ 2 an

ounce this week over official domestic prices that include a 10 percent import tax. The premiums were

at $ 1 last week. "Buyers are anticipating a cut in import duty in the budget. That is prompting them to

delay purchases said. The Indian government will present on Feb. 1 its budget for the 2017/18 financial

year starting on April 1. bullion industry has urged the government to cut the import duty to combat

smuggling, which has increased since India raised the levy to 10 percent in August 2013 in a bid to

narrow its current account deficit.

A senior government official said earlier this month that the trade ministry has requested the finance

ministry to cut the import duty to 6 percent. are also confused due to volatility in prices," said a

Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. "Investment demand has fallen substantially since the

government banned higher-value currency notes." Gold MAUc1 was trading around 28,665 rupees per

10 grams on Friday. It fell to 26,862 rupees last month, the lowest level since Feb. 2, 2016. International

gold prices were broadly steady on Friday, with spot gold XAU= on track for its fourth straight weekly

gain, buoyed by a weaker dollar ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. President. In top

consumer China, demand slowed on higher prices, a trader with a Chinese import bank said, causing

premiums to shrink to $ 14 from $ 17 earlier this week. In Hong Kong and Singapore, premiums were

quoted at around $ 1 - $ 1.30 an ounce, largely unchanged from last week.

"Whenever prices go up over $ 1,190-$ 1,200, demand starts to slow down. Towards the Chinese New

Year, the demand is usually sluggish and that's been the case this time," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer

at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

Prices in Tokyo were at a discount of 50 cents this week compared with a discount of $ 1 last week.

"Industrial demand picked up ahead of the Chinese New Year. However, we have seen more buybacks

from dealers due to higher prices in Japan," a Tokyo-based trader said.

ENERGY✍

Oil prices extended declines on Monday, dragged down by signs of growing output in the United States

that would partly offset production cuts by OPEC and other producers. London Brent crude for March

delivery LCOc1 was down 26 cents at $55.26 a barrel by 0005 GMT after settling down 72 cents on

Friday. NYMEX crude for March delivery CLc1 was down 22 cents at $52.95 a barrel. The U.S. weekly

oil and gas rig count from Baker Hughes showed that U.S. drillers added 15 oil rigs in the week, the

12th gain in 13 weeks. That brought the total count to 566, the most since November 2015. The

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, agreed to cut

output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 to relieve a two-year supply

overhang. But U.S. oil production has been rising, with the International Energy Agency forecasting

total U.S. output growth of 320,000 bpd in 2017 to an average of 12.8 million bpd. rise in U.S. output

should not be unexpected. "However we expect the reductions being made by OPEC will far exceed any

rise in the U.S. and quickly reduce the global inventory that has been built up over the past two years.

Hedge funds and money managers boosted bullish wagers on U.S. crude oil to the highest level since

mid-2014, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday, as agreed output cuts by

the world's top producers began to eat into a global glut. Donald Trump on Sunday defended his move

to ban entry of refugees and people from seven Muslim-majority nations and said the United States

would resume issuing visas for all countries in the next 90 days as he faced rising criticism at home and

abroad and new protests in U.S. cities.

Oil futures finished lower on Friday, logging a modest weekly loss, as investors turned their attention to

rising production in the U.S. and away from OPEC and other producers' commitment to curbing global

oversupply. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March slumped 61 cents,

or around 1.1%, to end at $53.17 a barrel by close of trade. Futures touched a high of $54.08 earlier, the

strongest level since January 6. For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost 5 cents, or about 0.1%.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for March delivery declined 72 cents, or

nearly 1.3%, to settle at $55.45 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Prices climbed to a three-week high of

$56.55 in the prior session.

London-traded Brent futures scored a gain of 7 cents, or approximately 0.1%, on the week. Prices

dropped to the lowest levels of the session after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday

that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by 15 last week, the 12th gain in 13 weeks.

That brought the total count to 566, the most since November 2015. The data raised concerns that the

ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major producers to rebalance

global oil supply and demand. Futures have been trading in a narrow range around the low-to-mid $50s

over the past month as sentiment in oil markets has been torn between expectations of a rebound in U.S.

shale production and hopes that oversupply may be curbed by output cuts announced by major global

producers.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output under the first such

pact in more than a decade as global producers look to reduce oversupply and support prices. January 1

marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in

November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next

six months.

The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for February dipped 1.5 cents, or 1% to $1.527 a gallon. It ended

down about 2.5% for the week. February heating oil shed 2.2 cents, or 1.4%, to finish at $1.618 a gallon.

For the week, the fuel lost around 1.7%.

Natural gas futures for March delivery slipped 3.9 cents, or nearly 1.2%, to $3.358 per million British

thermal units. It posted a weekly gain of around 0.3%. In the week ahead, market participants will eye

fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday

to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Traders will also continue to pay

close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with

their agreement to reduce output this year. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list

of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, January 31

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, February 1

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, February 2

The U.S. EIA is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, February 3

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Oil prices slipped on Friday, extending losses after data suggested drilling is ramping up in the United

States, prompting investor concern about how effective OPEC and other producers will be at supporting

prices by cutting supplies.

U.S. crude CLc1 futures for March delivery settled down 61 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $53.17 a barrel.

Brent was down 72 cents at $55.52 a barrel.

The U.S. weekly oil and gas rig count from Baker Hughes showed that U.S. drillers added 15 oil rigs in

the week, the 12th gain in 13 weeks. That brought the total count to 566, the most since November

2015. "We're in a holding pattern at this point in time," said Mark Watkins, regional investment

manager at U.S. Bank Private Client Group. "Supply is a big factor right now and you have the U.S.

really filling that gap that OPEC has left open." Prices had risen during Asian trading, though activity

was thin due to the start of the Lunar New Year holiday in much of that region, including China and

Singapore.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, agreed to

cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017 to relieve a two-year

supply overhang. But U.S. oil production has been rising, with the International Energy Agency

forecasting total U.S. output growth of 320,000 bpd in 2017 to an average of 12.8 million bpd. factors

affected prices this week, such as gains in Iran's monthly oil exports in February and resilient production

in Libya. A glitch in North Sea Buzzard crude production provided support. market participants warned

of more volatility ahead as speculators react to even small developments in the physical markets. U.S.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed that in the week to Jan. 24, hedge funds and

other speculators boosted bullish wagers on U.S. crude oil to the highest since mid 2014. that

speculative net long positions in Brent and WTI are already at a record-high level, the correction

potential is therefore growing all the time.

OPEC oil output is set to fall by 900,000 barrels per day this month, a company that tracks OPEC

supply said on Friday, pointing to a strong start by the exporter group in implementing a supply cut deal.

South Sudan plans to more than double oil production to 290,000 barrels per day in fiscal 2017/2018,

the finance minister said on Friday, indicating a target higher than the level recorded shortly before

conflict erupted in late 2013. Only a handful of cargoes were still available including Nemba, Pazflor,

Plutonio and Saturno.

NIGERIA

Trading slowed as sellers reassessed market values following a string of tender awards that helped clear

out a backlog of cargoes.

Qua Iboe cargoes were being offered at around dated Brent plus $1.00 a barrel, firming on a smaller

programme.

The Erha programme emerged with five cargoes in March, including one deferred from the end-

February.

Oil fell Friday in thin trade as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday kicked off.

Brent crude was off 54 cents, or 0.96%, at $55.70 at 07:30 ET. U.S. crude shed 35 cents, or 0.65%, to

$53.43. The market is looking to the latest Baker Hughes weekly U.S. rig count data later in the session.

The number of rigs operating in the U.S. in the previous week rose to 551, the highest level since

November 2015. An increase in North American shale activity could undermine the impact of agreed oil

output cuts.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by some 1.8 million barrels a day in the first

half of this year. The dollar index edged higher. A stronger dollar weakens demand for oil.

Oil prices dipped on Friday, with rising crude output from the United States offsetting efforts by OPEC

and other producers to cut supplies to prop up the market.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 56.14 per

barrel at 0132 GMT, down 10 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures

dropped 2 cents to $53.76 a barrel. Traders said that efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut supplies to reduce a global fuel

overhang were being offset by rising output in the United States, resulting in range-bound prices.

"Market participants are hyper-focused on two issues: shale's response to higher prices and OPEC

compliance. "Producers and OPEC countries are all talking their books, yet the jury is still out," it

added, referring to widespread scepticism over compliance with announced cuts. The British bank said it

expected Brent and WTI prices to average $55 and $53 per barrel respectively for the first quarter.

OPEC and other producers have agreed to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day for the

first half of 2017 to fight a supply overhang that has seen between 1 million and 2 million bpd of crude

being produced in excess of consumption over the past two years. U.S. oil production, however, has

risen by around half a million bpd since mid-2016 to 8.96 million bpd, offsetting significant amounts of

any OPEC-led supply cut.

Oil prices jumped 2 percent on Thursday, boosted by the ongoing rally in the U.S. stock market,

although gains in crude futures were capped by plentiful supplies and bulging inventories in spite of

efforts by producers to cut output. U.S. light crude futures CLc1 were up 96 cents to $53.71 a barrel, a

gain of 1.8 percent, while Brent crude LCOc1 rose $1.04, or 1.9 percent, to $56.12 by 1:41 p.m. ET.

U.S. crude popped to a peak of $54.06, its highest in more than three weeks, as Wall Street opened at

9:30 a.m. ET and added to the previous session's rally that had lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average

to close above 20,000 for the first time. Major averages were little changed in the afternoon.Robert

Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Americas, said traders may keep be adding more long

positions in oil that are already at two-and-a-half-year highs. market is pushing for $55 oil here and

ultimately it seems determined to get there," Yawger said. "The speculators have an interest in pushing

this thing to the upside, which has much do with this (rally) as anything else." Oil's gains were limited

by Wednesday's U.S. inventory figures showing an increase of 2.8 million barrels last week in U.S.

crude inventories to 488.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose sharply, putting current stocks at

253 million barrels, highest in this century for this time of year. That has caused refining margins to

wither; the U.S. refined product crack spread CL321-1=R hit a low of $12.79 a barrel on Thursday,

lowest since November, before recovering to $13.30.

U.S. crude oil production has risen 6.3 percent since the middle of last year to 8.96 million barrels per

day. Rising U.S. output and inventories should somewhat offset output cuts agreed to by the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, hoping to

reduce a global glut. crude benchmarks have stayed within narrow trading ranges since OPEC agreed to

limit production, but that may not last if U.S. production keeps rising. "We still believe there are more

arguments in favor of prices breaking out of their current corridor and embarking on a downward

trajectory," said Carsten Fritsch, senior commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. Industry

data suggests OPEC and other exporters have made progress toward their agreed output reduction of

almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017.

Oil prices edged up on Thursday, driven up by a weakening dollar, but gains were capped by plentiful

supplies and inventories despite an effort by OPEC and other producers to cut output and prop up the

market. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.44

per barrel at 0137 GMT, up 36 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures

CLc1 were at $53.07 a barrel, up 32 cents. Traders said that the increase was largely down to a

weakening dollar .DXY , which has lost 3.9 percent in value since its January peak. Since oil is traded in

dollar, a cheaper greenback makes fuel purchases less costly for countries using other currencies,

potentially spurring demand.

However, oil price gains were capped by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration which

showed a 2.84 million barrels increase in commercial crude inventories to 488.3 million barrels, which

add to a 6.3 percent rise in U.S. oil production since the middle of last year to 8.96 million barrels per

day. estimates that crude oil and other liquids inventories grew by 2.0 million barrels per day in the

fourth quarter of 2016, driven by an increase in production and a significant, but seasonal, drop in

consumption," the agency said. Rising U.S. inventories and output are countering efforts by the

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia to cut supplies

by a almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of 2017 in an effort to end a global glut.

Oil prices dipped on Friday as rising crude output from the United States was offsetting efforts by

OPEC and other producers to prop up the market by cutting supplies. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the

international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 56.17 per barrel at 0556 GMT, down 7 cents

from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 53.77 a barrel, down 1

cent.

Trading activity during Asian business hours was extremely low due to the start of the Lunar New Year

holiday in most countries of the region, including China and Singapore. Traders said growth in U.S.

output was counteracting efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other

producers including Russia to reduce a global fuel overhang, resulting in range-bound prices. "U.S.

producer hedging via futures and increasing shale production offset the progress OPEC has made with

its production cut implementation. "Market participants are hyper-focused on two issues: shale's

response to higher prices and OPEC compliance. "Producers and OPEC countries are all talking their

books, yet the jury is still out," it added, referring to widespread scepticism over compliance with

announced cuts. The British bank said it expected Brent and WTI prices to average $ 55 and $ 53 per

barrel respectively for the first quarter. OPEC and other producers have agreed to cut production by

almost 1.8 million barrels per day for the first half of 2017 to fight a supply overhang that has seen

between 1 million and 2 million bpd of crude being produced in excess of consumption over the past

two years.

U.S. oil production, however, has risen by around half a million barrels per day since mid-2016 to 8.96

million bpd.

Oil prices dipped on Friday, with rising crude output from the United States offsetting efforts by OPEC

and other producers to cut supplies to prop up the market. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international

benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 56.14 per barrel at 0132 GMT, down 10 cents from their last

close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 2 cents to $ 53.76 a barrel. Traders said that

efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia

to cut supplies to reduce a global fuel overhang were being offset by rising output in the United States,

resulting in range-bound prices. "Market participants are hyper-focused on two issues: shale's response

to higher prices and OPEC compliance,"

"Producers and OPEC countries are all talking their books, yet the jury is still out," it added, referring to

widespread scepticism over compliance with announced cuts. The British bank said it expected Brent

and WTI prices to average $ 55 and $53 per barrel respectively for the first quarter. OPEC and other

producers have agreed to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day for the first half of 2017

to fight a supply overhang that has seen between 1 million and 2 million bpd of crude being produced in

excess of consumption over the past two years.

U.S. oil production, however, has risen by around half a million bpd since mid-2016 to 8.96 million bpd,

offsetting significant amounts of any OPEC-led supply cut.

Oil eased Wednesday ahead of official U.S. crude inventory data. Brent crude was off 49 cents, or

0.88%, at $54.95 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude shed 48 cents, or 0.90%, to $52.70. American Petroleum

Institute data Tuesday showed a rise of 2.9 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks in the latest week.

Official Energy Information Administration figures later Wednesday are forecast to show a build-up of

2.8 million barrels in crude inventories. The stockpile data weighed on upbeat sentiment on compliance

levels with agreed output cuts. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by some 1.8

million barrels a day in the first half of this year.

U.S. oil climbed on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, but an increase in drilling activity in the United

States is likely to keep a lid on prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 14

cents at $ 52.89 a barrel by 0023 GMT. Brent crude LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices,

was yet to start trading. The dollar slumped to a seven-week low against a currency basket on Monday,

weighed by concerns about the early days of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration that have so

far been marred by protests, a protectionist inauguration speech and angry comments on Twitter. A

weaker dollar makes greenback-priced commodities cheaper for importer holding other currencies.

"Another strong increase in drilling rigs operating in the U.S. took the gloss off the better-than-expected

adherence by OPEC to the agreed production cuts. "President Trump's comments that the U.S. would

end its dependence on imported oil also added to the unease in the market." U.S. drillers added the most

rigs in nearly four years, data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on Friday,

extending an eight-month drilling recovery. oil production has risen by more than 6 percent since mid-

2016, though it remains 7 percent below the 2015 peak. It is back to levels seen in late 2014, when

strong U.S. crude output contributed to a crash in oil prices. The increase in U.S. production is offsetting

plans to reduce output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers.

Those countries have made a strong start to lowering their oil output under the first such pact in more

than a decade, energy ministers said on Sunday. Iraq's oil minister said on Monday that most oil majors

working on its territory were participating in oil output reductions agreed as part of the deal.

Oil prices fell 1 percent on Monday as signs of a strong recovery in U.S. drilling largely overshadowed

news that OPEC and Non-OPEC producers were on track to meet output reduction goals. Ministers

representing members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Non-OPEC

producers said at a meeting in Vienna on Sunday that of the almost 1.8 million barrels per day they had

agreed to remove from the market starting on Jan. 1, 1.5 million barrel per day had already been cut.

comments over the weekend at the OPEC compliance meeting that cuts in OPEC/Non-OPEC production

were ahead of schedule, a sharp rise in U.S. rig counts and talk of large increases in capital spending

seem to be souring the bullish mood," .

U.S. drillers added the most rigs in nearly four years last week, data from energy services company

Baker Hughes showed on Friday, extending an eight-month drilling recovery. crude LCOc1 settled

down 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $ 55.23 a barrel. U.S. crude futures CLc1 closed the session at $ 52.75

a barrel, down 0.9 percent, or 47 cents. Prices pared some losses after Iraq's oil minister said it was too

early to say whether the deal needed to be extended and that he expected oil prices to rise to $ 60-$ 65

per barrel. a technical perspective, both contracts remain - for the time being - above their respective key

support levels. The trend therefore remains bullish for oil until the charts say otherwise. U.S. oil

production has risen by more than 6 percent since mid-2016, though it remains 7 percent below the 2015

peak. It is back to levels of late 2014, when strong U.S. crude output contributed to a crash in oil prices.

"There is a widely held view that prices should be higher because that is what Saudi Arabia is strongly

pushing for through immediate supply cuts, but there is concern as to the speed and scale of the response

of U.S. shale oil supply to higher prices," Standard Chartered said in a note. "While we have argued that

U.S. shale cannot increase fast enough to balance cuts in production elsewhere, we think that market

concerns on the potential U.S. response are still providing short-term resistance to prices heading closer

to $ 60." U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to impose a hefty border tax on companies that want

to import products to the United States. market speculators added to bullish bets last week, showing

increased optimism about higher prices. a record high gross long position 3067651MLNG among

money managers in NYMEX crude oil futures and options leaves the market ripe for a correction.

Benchmark oil prices fell on Monday, dragging down West African outright oil prices with them, as the

market reacted to an increase in the oil rig count in the United States.

Angola's oil shipments to China rose by 13 percent in 2016, to 43.74 million tonnes, making it the third-

largest supplier behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. Italy's Eni said it will deepen its involvement in

Nigeria's energy industry, increasing oil and gas exploration and helping to restore one of the country's

ailing refineries, the company said in a statement on Monday. Rapid trading of Angolan cargoes slowed

somewhat on Monday as some suppliers awaited results from pending tenders.

State firm Sonangol had sold out less than a week after the programme was released and all cargoes

moved at initial offer levels.

Chinese buyers have taken most of the March-loading spot cargoes that have traded.

Analysts JBC Energy said that heavier grades should continue to garner strong support in spite of spring

refinery maintenance, with falling fuel oil exports from Russia and Latin America boosting cracks for

the product.

They added that a 15-month low in the Brent-Dubai spread was also keeping open the arbitrage window

into Asia.

NIGERIA

Nigerian cargoes loading in February dwindled to about a handful from almost 20 last week, but some

were simply deferred to March loading, traders said.

Tenders from India were a key outlet, with HPCL taking two million barrels last week and tenders from

BPCL and IOC promising to absorb more.

U.S. east coast refiners were also buying Nigerian crude.

March export plans showed an increase in Bonny Light, Agbami, Amenam and Escravos loadings. Qua

Iboe was above the revised February plan because two February cargoes were pushed into March.

There were no March cargoes of EA or Okwori, traders said.

Only two Bonga cargoes were scheduled because the field had planned maintenance. Export plans for

grades including Erha, Forcados, Oyo and Pennington were still pending.

TENDERS

India's BPCL issued a tender to buy crude loading in February and March, traders said.

Fellow Indian state oil company IOC was also running two tenders to buy oil, one for February and

March loading oil and the second for March-loading oil only.

Total had placed one cargo of Qua Iboe and one of Bonny Light into the tender it won last week to

supply India's HPCL with March-loading oil

Oil fell Monday as a jump in the U.S. rig count outweighed an upbeat output cut compliance meeting.

Brent crude shed 48 cents, or 0.87%, to $55.01 at 07:45 ET. U.S. crude lost 62 cents, or 1.16%, to

$52.60. Baker Hughes U.S. rig count data Friday showed a jump of 29 to 551, the highest level in 14

months. That could point to higher U.S. shale output, which could offset the positive impact of the

output cuts. OPEC and non-OPEC producers held a meeting on the implementation of the cuts over the

weekend. The accord calls for a reduction of some 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half of this year.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih estimated the level of compliance at already 80%.

Oil prices edged up on Monday, supported by statements from oil producers over the weekend that an

output cut was being successfully implemented, but markets were held back by a surge in drilling that

suggested U.S. production would rise further.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $55.57 per barrel

at 0016 GMT, up 8 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 8

cents at $ 53.30 a barrel. "Oil rallied strongly as oil producers met to discuss the adherence to the

production cut agreement. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that producers have cut

1.5 million barrel per day so far in 2017. "Prices reversed these gains after data showed another pickup

in drilling activity," it added. U.S. energy companies last week added the most rigs drilling for new

production in almost four years. Drillers added 29 rigs in the week to Jan. 20, bringing the total count up

to 551, the most since November 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes BHI.N said on Friday. oil

production levels have risen over 6 percent since mid-2016, and although they remain 7 percent below

their historic 2015 peak, they are back to levels of late 2014, when high U.S. crude output contributed to

a crash in oil prices.

Oil futures finished higher on Friday, logging a modest weekly gain with traders encouraged by signs

that global supply is tightening in wake of a planned agreement by major crude producers to cut output.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for March delivery rallied $1.33, or about 2.5%, to

settle at $ 55.45 a barrel by close of trade Friday. London-traded Brent futures scored a gain of 4 cents,

or approximately 0.1%, on the week. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for

delivery in March jumped $1.10, or around 2.1%, to end at $53.22 a barrel by close of trade. For the

week, New York-traded oil futures rose 5 cents, or nearly 0.1%. Oil jumped on Friday after Saudi

Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, said that

1.5 million barrels a day of the roughly 1.8 million in cuts pledged by OPEC and non-OPEC countries

have already been taken out of the market. The upbeat comments added to signs that the oil market is

rebalancing. Prices, however, finished off the session's highs after data showed a sharp weekly rise in

the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil. According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the

number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. jumped by 29 last week to 551, the largest weekly increase

since a recovery in the rig count began in June and the highest level in around 14 months. The data

raised concerns that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major

producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. In a monthly report issued this week, the

International Energy Agency said OPEC production has slowed, declining by 320,000 barrels a day to

33.09 million barrels in December. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and

non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8

million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months. The deal, if carried out as planned,

should reduce global supply by about 2%. Some traders remain skeptical that the planned cuts will be as

substantial as the market currently expects. While some major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and

Kuwait, have so far showed signs that they are sticking to their pledge to cut back output, others, such as

Libya and Iraq have ramped up production. A monitoring committee charged with tracking adherence to

the global deal is due to meet in Vienna for the first time on January 22. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline

futures for February rose 3.1 cents, or about 2.1% to $1.566 a gallon. It ended down about 2.9% for the

week.

February heating oil tacked on 2.7 cents, or 1.7%, to finish at $1.645 a gallon. For the week, the fuel

declined around 0.3%.

Natural gas futures for February delivery sank 16.4 cents, or nearly 4.9%, to $3.204 per million British

thermal units. It posted a weekly loss of more than 6% on forecasts for warmer winter weather.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude

and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest

oil consumer/

Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further

evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely

to affect the markets.

Tuesday, January 24

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, January 25

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, January 26

The U.S. EIA is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, January 27

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday on expectations that this weekend's meeting of the world's

top oil producers would demonstrate compliance to a global output cut deal, but rising U.S. drilling

activity limited gains. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some

other producing countries including Russia will meet in Vienna this weekend to establish a mechanism

to verify compliance with a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day of output, OPEC's secretary general

told Reuters. Arabia's energy minister said 1.5 million bpd had already been taken out of the market.

"The petroleum markets are moving higher in Friday trade on the latest round of positive talk about how

much supply oil producers have taken offline ahead of Sunday's review by OPEC and non-OPEC

representatives in Vienna. Brent crude LCOc1 ended the session up $ 1.33, or 2.5 percent, at $ 55.49 a

barrel. U.S. crude for February delivery CLc1 closed up by $ 1.05, or 2 percent, at $ 52.42 a barrel

before expiring. The more active March contract settled up 2.1 percent at $ 53.22. For the week, both

contracts were largely unchanged. Prices pared gains after data from energy services firm Baker Hughes

showed U.S. drilling companies this week added the most oil rigs in nearly four years. Swelling oil

stockpiles in the U.S. and rising shale production could threaten market rebalancing, analysts said. "For

a lasting balance to be restored on the oil market and the very high stocks reduced, the agreement will

need to be strictly implemented over a considerable period of time," Commerzbank said in a note. "This

is particularly true given that U.S. oil production is rising again and given that the oil supply from Libya

and Nigeria may be expanded."

U.S. crude inventories USOILC=ECI unexpectedly soared 2.3 million barrels last week as refineries

sharply slowed production, while gasoline builds were much larger than expected amid weak demand,

the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. funds rushed to place bullish wagers on U.S.

crude oil in the week to Jan. 17, boosting their net long positions to the highest levels since July 2014,

data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. long positions in NYMEX futures

and options 3067651MLNG among speculators soared to the highest on record, based on publicly

available data going back to 2006. Libya's National Oil Corporation, meanwhile, said production had

now climbed to 722,000 bpd, resuming its rise after poor weather had caused a small dip. Schieldrop,

chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets, said Brent crude was starting to move into a trading range

around $ 55 as the production cut deal placed a floor price of $ 50, while U.S. shale oil producers

capped the upside at US$ 60.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data on evidence the global market

is tightening as lower production by OPEC and other exporters drains stocks. Increased drilling in the

United States, however, could keep a lid on prices. Brent LCOc1 futures gained 21 cents, or 0.4 percent,

to settle at $ 55.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 gained 43 cents or 0.8 percent, to

$ 53.18 per barrel. That put WTI up for a fourth day in a row, its longest winning streak since the end of

December. Post settlement, prices pared gains after weekly inventory data from The American

Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude, gasoline and diesel stocks all rose last week. The Energy

Information Administration will report its data at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. Ministers from the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and big producers outside the group said on Sunday

that of the almost 1.8 million barrels per day they had agreed to remove from the market starting on Jan.

1, 1.5 million bpd had already been cut. Arabia's oil output is likely to drop to around 9.9 million bpd in

January, according to industry sources and shipping data. The kingdom said it pumped 10.47 million

bpd in December. comments out of OPEC are the primary reasons for the price increase on Tuesday.

That and recent weakness in the dollar, which is actually masking some serious weakness in oil. The

U.S. dollar .DXY settled at a seven-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday, but was up

nearly 0.15 percent Tuesday afternoon. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated crude less

expensive for users of other currencies. Bernstein Energy said global oil inventories declined 24 million

barrels to 5.7 billion barrels in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous quarter. This amounts to

about 60 days of world oil consumption. "This is the biggest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of

2013, confirming that inventory builds are now reversing as the market shifts from oversupply to

undersupply. Analysts, however, estimated U.S. crude stocks increased by about 2.8 million barrels in

the week to Jan. 20. The push by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives for a shift to border-

adjusted corporate tax could push WTI prices higher than Brent, triggering large-scale domestic

production, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. expect WTI could move to a $ 10 per barrel

premium to Brent from a $ 3 discount - a $ 13 relative move immediately." Brent's premium to WTI

WTCLc1-LCOc1 narrowed on Tuesday by about 26 cents to $ 2.22 per barrel. U.S. drillers last week

added the most rigs in nearly four years, data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on

Friday, extending an eight-month drilling recovery. is gradually coming to the realization that they may

have received more than they bargained for in re-activating U.S. drilling activity," Jim Ritterbusch,

president of Chicago-based energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

U.S. oil production has risen by more than 6 percent since mid-2016, though it remains 7 percent below

the 2015 peak. It is back to levels reached in late 2014, when strong U.S. crude output contributed to a

crash in oil prices.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :

BASE METAL GUIDE -

Trading Ideas:

NICKEL✍

Nickel trading range for the day is 625-668.

Nickel dropped as pressure continues due to rise in dollar and Indonesia’s move to relax its export ban.Economic growth in the U.S. slowed by more than anticipated in the final three months of 2016,

according to a report released by the Commerce Department.

Nickel ore inventories at seven major Chinese ports kept dropping in the week ending Jan. 26.

ZINC✍

Zinc trading range for the day is 184.1-190.3.

Zinc prices ended with losses as a stronger US currency dented international investors’ demand.

China’s refined zinc output was 465,000 tonnes in December, down 1.8% month-on-month.Inventories at zinc downstream producers averaged 9 days sufficient to production in January, compared to around 14 days in the same period of last year

COPPER ✍

Copper trading range for the day is 397.9-408.3.

Copper prices ended with losses as the dollar strengthened, with trading volumes lean as the week-long Lunar New Year holiday kicks off in China.

However downside seen limited buoyed by expectations that supply disruptions could tighten the market.

Freeport-McMoRan warned it would need to start slashing output at its Indonesia mine to about 40 percent of capacity if it fails to get a government export permit.

BASE METALS –

STEEL✍

1. A revival in India’s steel consumption from the weakest estimated growth in at least four years hinges

on the government boosting spending on infrastructure, housing and road projects to absorb record

output. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will announce Feb. 1 higher outlays for national highways, rural

roads, railways and low-cost housing, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted in a Jan. 19 report. Any

major budget initiatives in infrastructure and construction would stimulate domestic steel demand,

according to Seshagiri Rao, joint managing director at India’s second-biggest mill, JSW Steel Limited.

Mills in India such as JSW, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Tata Steel Ltd. are projected to produce a

record amount of the metal this year in anticipation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s infrastructure

push.

2. When U.S. President Donald Trump signed orders to revive two controversial energy pipeline

projects this week, he pledged to require new pipelines to use American-made steel, a gesture to workers

in the hard-hit industry who helped propel him to power. But U.S. steelmakers will receive negligible

benefit from the multi-billion dollar Keystone XL project, one of the two projects Trump ordered to

proceed, because they have limited ability to meet the stringent materials requirements for the

TransCanada TRP.TO line. Economists said Trump's order has many loopholes to enforcement and

could violate international trade law. Meanwhile, in the quiet prairie town of Gascoyne, North Dakota,

deer wander among gleaming stacks of steel tubing intended for the Keystone pipeline. The government

on Tuesday said imposition of minimum import price on steel is a short-term measure and it is taking

permanent measures to counter unfair trade practices in line with international norms. " Birender Singh

steel minister had emphasised that MIP is a short-term measure and not of a permanent nature," the steel

ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. The ministry's statement was in response to some media

reports. The media reports that quoted the steel minister gave an impression that that MIP on steel will

be discontinued after February 4, the ministry said.

NICKEL✍

LME base metals except Nickel traded higher last week as weakness in the DX in the earlier half post

Trump’s protectionist comments in his inauguration speech spurred gains in dollar denominated

commodities. MCX base metals apart from Nickel traded higher in line with international trends.

COPPER ✍

Last week, LME Copper prices gained 2 percent and jumped to $5857/t as President Trump’s

inauguration speech signaled a protectionist stance on trade and other issues, thereby hurting DX.

Also, supply disruption came to the fore after BHP, the world's largest miner by market value, said that

it is likely to produce 1.62 million metric tons copper this fiscal year, down 2% on a prior forecast,

following a sharp fall in first-half output. BHP is also facing challenges at copper operations in Chile,

where workers at its Escondida copper mine, the world's biggest, have threatened to strike over a pay

dispute as an existing wage agreement expires at the end of this month. However, sharp upside was

restricted as US dollar sharply rebounded owing to optimism over US economic growth outlook. MCX

copper prices traded higher by 3.6 percent last week to close at Rs.407 per kg. LME Copper prices are

trading lower by 0.2 percent at $5886/t. Copper will likely trade lower today as investors turned

cautious after President Donald Trump took his 'America First' policy to another level and introduced

immigration curbs, prompting a wave of caution across the globe. Also, prices will witness pressure

citing subdued demand in Chinaowing to week long Lunar New Year holiday. We expect MCX copper

prices to trade lower in line with international trends.

STEEL ✍

A revival in India’s steel consumption from the weakest estimated growth in at least four years hinges

on the government boosting spending on infrastructure, housing and road projects to absorb record

output. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will announce Feb. 1 higher outlays for national highways, rural

roads, railways and low-cost housing, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted in a Jan. 19 report.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

FUNDAMENTALS –

SOYBEAN✍

Soybean futures closed lower last week due to good supplies and higher demand at lower prices. The

supplies in the physical market is continue to be adequate as production during kharif is higher by more

than 57% this season compared to last year. The bulk buyers and oil millers are quite active at lower

levels keeping pressure on prices. U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Friday as prospects for

higher supply of the crop improved in South America. The weather remains favorable (for crop

production) in Brazil and improving in Argentina.

REFINE SOY OIL✍

Refined soy oil futures closed lower last week on good supplies and lower demand from the bulk buyers

and retail consumers. It is still trading in a narrow range as prices try to consolidate and looking for any

strong fundamentals. Moreover, the tariff,.

value of crude soyoil was reduced by $ 23 per tonnes to $ 869 for the second fortnight of January, which

is the second consecutive reduction in three months by the government. India's edible oil imports fell

nearly 17% on year to 1.17 mt in December, according to data released by the Solvent Extractors'

Association of India. India import of soybean oil has declined to 2.32 lt in Dec from 4.90 lt in the year-

ago period as supplies of soybean is good at lower prices.

CRUDE PALM OIL✍

CPO Futures closed lower last week on reports of steady supplies and demand in the physical market.

As per SEA data, India Nov-Dec RBD palmolein import 486,502 tonnes, up 5% on year and Dec RBD

palmolein import 245,554 tonnes vs 231,810

tonnes year ago. Malaysian palm oil futures fell on expectation for 12% increased

production in 2017 and strengthening ringgit. However, Palm oil export data showed rising demand, as

shipments rose 9.3 % in the Jan. 1-25 period versus the previous month, two cargo surveyors said on

Wednesday.

SUGAR✍

Sugar Futures on NCDEX closed higher last week on reports that sugar production in the country set to

dip to seven-year low this season due to shortage of cane which will lead to early closure of sugar

crushing. Indian Sugar Mills Association has lowered sugar production estimate for 2016-17 to 21.3 mt,

down by about 9 % as compared to its estimate of 23.37 mt, projected in September 2016. ISMA has

arrived at these figures, based on satellite images, at a meeting held in Hyderabad. Moreover, India's

sugar production by mid-January is down by 6% as compared to the same period of previous year. Raw

sugar futures on ICE closed higher last week as the market

participants anticipated India might import sugar. Drought has curtailed production in the western state

of Maharashtra and the southern state of Karnataka, boosting domestic prices and raising the prospect of

Indian imports. Moreover, as per CFTC data, speculators upped their bullish stance in raw sugar by

3,747 contracts to 161,630 in the week to Jan. 17.

KOTAN/KAPAS✍

Cotton prices on MCX closed higher last week on good demand from the bulk buyers on reports of

lower production. However, Kapas prices closed lower on anticipation of improved supplies in the

physical market. Meanwhile, Cotton Association of India has revised its cotton crop estimate downward

at 341 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the year 2016-17 as against the earlier estimate of 346 lakh bales,

projected in October. ICE cotton futures closed higher last week supported by strong export sales data

and expectation of good global demand. As per USDA reports, U.S. exporters have already sold 38

percent of expected shipments, topping the five-year average of 32 %. Consumption will probably

outstrip production by 1.24 mt this year, as per Cotlook. That can help to erode global stockpiles, which

the USDA estimates at 90.6 million bales, each weighing 480 pounds (218 kilograms).

SPICES

JEERA✍

Jeera futures closed higher on last week due to forecast of fall in jeera production by 12 % to 387,000

tonnes during 2016-17 due to lower acreage and adverse weather conditions in the jeera producing states

of Gujarat and Rajasthan. The new jeera crop

started arriving in the key spot market of Unjha in Gujarat this week, with daily average arrivals at 150-

200 bags (1 bag = 55 kg). As per second advance estimates for 2016/17, production of Jeera in Gujarat

will be 2.21 lakh tonnes, down almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt. Moreover, Jeera

acreage this season is also down in Gujarat compared to last year. As on 23-Jan-17, Gujarat farmers

have planted jeera in 2,78,700 hectares, down by 16,500 hectares compared to last year acreage of

2,95,200 hectares till same period. On the export front, Jeera exports in India are likely to rise 22% to

120,000 tonnes in 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), compared with shipments of 98,700 tonnes a year ago, because

of robust demand from overseas market and negligible stocks in other exporting nations. Turmeric

futures closed lower last week on anticipation of better supplies of new turmeric crops. However, good

up country demand and buying interest among the stockists may keep the prices volatile. On the export

front, country exported about 65,848 tonnes of turmeric during April-Oct period, up by 27% to 51,910

tonnes compared last year, as per government data.

SUGAR✍

1. The sugar industry has come out with a solution to rein in sugar prices which are hovering around Rs

40kg in the wholesale market raising the worry level of the government. It wants the government to

withdraw cess on the commodity to make it cheaper by Rs 1.24kg. This cess, which is paid by sugar

mills and passed on to consumers, goes to the Sugar Development Fund (SDF) for rehabilitation and

modernisation of sugar mills. The government has collected an estimated Rs 2,500 crore through cess.

“The government is already thinking of doing away with SDF and sugar cess and subsuming it with

GST. We, at our meeting to be held on Wednesday, will discuss about recommending to the government

the doing away of both (taxes) with immediate effect,“ T Sarita Reddy, president of the Indian Sugar

Mills Association , said.

2. The Central government is not comfortable with sugar prices hovering around ` . 40kg in the

wholesale market, especially with assembly elections round the corner and with major sugarproducer

Maharashtra likely to project a 10% fall in production compared to initial estimates. Due to the rising

prices, the Centre has summoned cane commissioners of the sugar producing states on Tuesday to assess

the production and stock situation. Maharashtra's production figures are being keenly observed by the

sugar industry.

COFFEE✍

Coffee exporters are finding it difficult to source coffee as growers are holding on to stock anticipating

higher prices. Coffee prices have been rising globally with reports of lower output in Brazil and

Vietnam, the top coffee growing nations.India exports close to 70% of its total coffee production.

“Exporters are not taking big or ders as arrivals are 30% to 40 % down from a year ago. We are

adopting a wait and watch policy and expect arrivals to increase at least by February,“ said Ramesh

Rajah, president of the Coffee Exporters Association of India. Harvest is in full swing with plucking of

arabica beans nearing completion while that of robusta has started. “Some exports are taking place with

carryover stock of robusta mostly ,“ Rajah said.

WHEAT✍

India may see a bumper wheat harvest this year as higher planting, cold waves in the past two weeks

and a forecast for more rainfall and chilly weather have boosted crop prospects after worries that a

moderate winter would hit yields. “Across the country, wheat crop is progressing well. We are

expecting yields to increase and production can easily cross 95 million tonnes,“ said Trilochan

Mohapatra, secretary at Department of Agricultural Research and Education. India received a bumper

crop in 2013-14 at 95.85 million tonnes, but two years of unfavourable weather hurt production. India,

the world's second largest wheat grower after China, produced 93.50 million tonnes on 29.25 million

hectares in 2015-16. The area under cultivation jumped to 31.31 million hectare this year till Jan 20.

The normal area under wheat planting (five-year average) is 30.41 million hectare. “The harvest will

probably jump from the previous year and cross 95 million tonnes,“ said Rajnikant Rai, chief operating

officer of agriculture business at ITC LtdBSE 0.16 %, one of the biggest wheat buyers. “According to

our internal survey, the wheat crop is perfectly alright with a good winter season. The crop is

developing well across all major wheat belts from Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana to UP.“

EDIBLE OIL✍

Edible oil consumers are becoming increasingly price conscious post demonetisation, say players like

Adani Wilmar, Vimal Oils and others. Not only are consumers increasingly shifting from one oil type to

another on the basis of price movement, thereby opting cheaper products, but also preferring to buy oils

in smaller packs of one or two litre, as against 5-15 litres pack previously.

Cotton prices are up 7.5 per cent in January on lower arrivals despite estimates of a bumper output this

year. The benchmark, Shankar 6 variety, was traded at Rs 11,979 a quintal on January 24, a rise of Rs

850 from early this month. Other varieties of fibre have moved up similarly. The agriculture ministry in

its first advance estimates projected India’s cotton output at 32.12 million bales 170 kg each in 2016-17,

up from 30.15 million bales in 2015-16.

Wary of potential under-reporting by millers, the Union food ministry has asked states to double-check

if lower sugar production of 22.5 million tonnes estimated for the second straight year in 2016-17 is

correct. The states have been told not to depend solely on Union agriculture ministry's cane production

data for calculating likely sugar output amid doubts about farm production figures, especially in the case

of wheat. In a meeting with sugar-producing states on Tuesday, the Union food ministry officials

noticed not much change in the sugar production data submitted by the states except Uttar Pradesh,

which quoted a higher figure. After analysing the figures, the ministry maintained that the country's

overall production is projected to be 22.5 million tonnes in the 2016-17 marketing year (October-

September). A senior food ministry official said the production numbers will be revised later after

taking into account likely sugar output from mid-year cane crop in April-May in Maharashtra and

Karnataka.

The Indian Sugar Mills Association has reduced its production assessment for the ongoing sugar season,

2016-17 (October to September), to 21.3 million tonnes, down nine% from the earlier 23.4 mt. The fall

is largely as “some mills have closed their operations in drought affected areas, mostly in Maharashtra

and Karnataka, and field reports that sugarcane availability in these two states is lower than earlier

expectations”, said Isma.

JEERA✍

Jeera (Cumin) output in India may fall by 12 per cent to 387,000 tonnes during 2016-17 due to lower

acreage and adverse weather conditions. The country had produced 438,000 tonne of the spice in 2015-

16. Gujarat, the highest jeera-producing state in the country, has reported a fall in area under the crop by

six per cent to 278,700 hectares in 2016-17, from 295,200 hectares in 2015-16, according to state

agriculture department data. As per the second advance estimate of the Gujarat government, the state is

estimating 212,000 tonnes of jeera production for the year 2016-17. Last year it was around 238,000

tonnes.

India has retained its sugar output forecast for 2016-17 season at 22.5 million tonnes, a top government

official said, after a meeting of representatives from India's leading sugar-producing states. "We will

meet again after two weeks to re-assess these production numbers," said the official, who requested

anonymity.

EDIBLE OIL✍

Edible oil consumers are becoming increasingly price conscious post demonetisation, say players like

Adani Wilmar, Vimal Oils and others. Not only are consumers increasingly shifting from one oil type to

another on the basis of price movement, thereby opting cheaper products, but also preferring to buy oils

in smaller packs of one or two litre, as against 5-15 litres pack previously. The trend of shift among

edible oil consumers from one oil type to another on the basis of price has risen sharply, say players.

For instance, if two years ago two out of 10 consumers used to follow the price trend, the same has

doubled to 4-5 buyers following price movements. However, for now, the trend is prominent in urban

areas.

As sowing of rabi crops reaches its last stage, the area covered is more than in 2015, but compared to

the last normal monsoon year of 2013, the acreage does not show a significant rise. Both 2014 and 2015

were drought years. This year, sowing is complete in around 98.4 per cent of the normal area. Till

January 20, rabi crops have been sown on 62.83 million hectares, six per cent more than last year and

around 34 per cent more than the average of the last five years. Wheat, the largest rabi crop has been

planted in 31.31 million hectares, 7.25 per cent.

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