commodity research report 04 january 2016 ways2capital

7/21/2019 Commodity Research Report 04 January 2016 Ways2Capital

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MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29 JAN 2016 103.

102.55

101.45

100.90

100.35

99.80

99.25

98.15

97.05

COPPER 29 FEB 2016 327.

323.30

319.60

317.90

315.80

314.20

312.10

308.30

304.60

CRUDE OIL

19 JAN 2016 257

2544

2512

2496

2480

2464

2448

2416

2384

GOLD 05 FEB 2016 253

25223

25097

25029

24971

24903

24845

24719

24593

LEAD 29 JAN 2016 123.

121.50

119.95

119.25

118.40

117.70 116.85

115.30

113.75

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 164.

161.90

159.30

158.10

156.70

155.50

154.10

151.50

148.90

NICKEL 29 JAN 2016 606

599

592

588.80

585

581.80

578

571

564

SILVER 04 MAR 2016 338

33682

33504

33419

33326

33241

33148

32970

3279210

ZINC 29 JAN 2016 112.

110.50

108.50

107.50

106.50

105.50

104.50

102.50

100.50

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29 JAN 2016 108.7

106.05

103.40

101.90

100.75

99.20

98.10

95.45

92.80

COPPER 29 FEB 2016 348.3

336.90

325.60

320.90

314.20

309.60

302.90

291.50

280.20

CRUDE OIL 19 JAN 2016 2814

2700

2586

2533

2471

2419

2358

2244

2130

GOLD 05 FEB 2016 26317

25888

25459

25210

25030

24781

24601

24172

23743

LEAD 29 JAN 2016 134.6

128.95

125.25

120.90

117.55

115.20

111.85

106.15

100.45

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 225.5

200.60

175.70

166.30

150.80

141.40

125.90

101

76.10

NICKEL 29 JAN 2016 666

636.50

607

596.30

577.50

566.80

548

518.50

489

SILVER 04 MAR 36770

35707

34644

33989

33581

32926

32518

31455

30392

ZINC 26 JAN 2016 126.1

119

111.90

109.25

104.80

102.15

97.70 90.60

83.50



WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25000 TGT 24850 SL 25203

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY ZINC JAN ABOVE 103.40 TGT 105 SL 101.80 - TGT ACHEI VED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS


USDINR 27 JAN 2016 27 66.90

66.75

66.55

66.50

66.45

66.35

66.30

66.10

GBPINR 27 JAN 2016 27 75.10

74.15

73.20

72.75

72.25

71.75

71.30

70.35

EURINR 27 JAN 2016 27 99.25

98.85

98.45

98.25

98.05

97.85

97.65

97.25

JPYINR 27 JAN 2016 27 56.40

56.05

55.65

55.50

55.30

55.10

54.95

54.55

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS


USDINR 27 JAN 2016 27 67.60

67.25

66.85

66.60

66.50

66.25

66.10

65.75

GBPINR 27 JAN 2016 27 78.15

76.25

74.35

73.10

72.45

71.15

70.55

68.65

EURINR 27 JAN 2016 27 103.05

101.50

99.95

98.90

97.40

97.35

96.85

95.30

JPYINR 27 JAN 2016 27 56.60

56.20

55.75

55.60

55.35

55.20

54.90

54.50

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.20 TGT 71.40 SL 73.10

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL L

BUY JPYINR JAN ABOVE 55.15 TGT 55.65 SL 54.60 - TGT ACHEIVED

BUY EURINR JAN ABOVE 73 TGT 73.70 SL 72.30 - CLOSED AT 55.34



NCDEX DAILY LEVELS


SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 627 623 619 617 615 613 611 607 603

SYBEANIDR 19 FEB 2016 4007 3957 3907 3882 3857 3832 3807 3757 3707

RMSEED 20 APR 2016 4382 4324 4266 4231 4208 4173 4150 4092 4034

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 15215 14985 14765 14640 14535 14425 14310 14085 13860

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4655 4590 4525 4496 4460 4431 4395 4330 4265

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 3929 3873 3817 3789 3761 3733 3705 3649 3593

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 620 617 614 613 611 610 608 605 602

SYBEANIDR19 FEB 2016

4241 4116 3991 3924 3866 3799 3741 3616 3491

RMSEED 20 APR 2016 4632 4492 4350 4274 4212 4134 4072 3932 3792

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 16475 15785 15095 14815 14400 14125 13715 13020 12335

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4954 4782 4610 4538 4438 4366 4266 4094 3922

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 4272 4113 3954 3857 3795 3698 3636 3477 3318

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13550 SL 14610

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14300 TGT 14000 SL 14760 - TGT ACHEIVED

BUY CHANA JAN ABOVE 4970 TGT 5090 SL 4860 - NOT EXECUTED.



MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

PRECIOUS METAL

China expects its energy consumption to grow in 2016, the official Xinhua news agency ofthe world's largest energy consumer said on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the kingdom, the world's top crude exporter,does not limit its output and has the capacity to meet additional demand, the Wall StreetJournal reported on Wednesday.

U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week on a bigger-than-expected build in distillateand gasoline inventories and higher imports, data from the Energy InformationAdministration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels in thelast week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 2.5 million barrels.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 892,000 barrels to a record,EIA said. Gasoline stocks rose by 925,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations ina Reuters poll for a 896,000-barrel gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel andheating oil, rose by 1.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.0 million-barrelincrease, the EIA data showed.

Gold

Gold's image as a haven asset has taken a battering with the metal heading for its third-straight

annual loss amid the sale of gold-backed funds by investors. Bullion for immediate delivery

rose 0.2 per cent to $1,063.22 an ounce at 3:32 pm. in Singapore after declining 0.7 per cent onWednesday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.It's down 10 per cent this year following a

1.4 per cent drop in 2014 and a 28 per cent loss in 2013. Gold is in the longest slump since

2000 as the dollar surged on the back of monetary policy tightening in the US, joining a

collapse in prices of commodities from iron ore to oil. Holdings in gold exchange-traded

products have declined 10 times in the last 13 sessions to 1,466.45 metric tons, near the lowest

in more than six years. "Gold is suffering from the general exodus out of commodity

investments," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said

by e-mail. Being one of the most-traded commodities through ETF's, the selling pressure from

paper investors has been felt particularly hard and gold's safe-haven status has suffered." Goldwill face a tough challenge at the start of 2016 and prices may drop toward the $1,000 level

before recovering toward $1,200 by the end of the year as the dollar and bond yields retreat,

Hansen said. The first interest rate increase since 2006 took place this month and traders are

now looking to the pace at which the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs in 2016. While

HSBC Holdings Plc predicts just two rate increases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among

banks that see four. Bullion will drop to $950 by the end of next year, according to Barnabas

Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., who's the top ranked precious metals



forecaster.Spot silver is also headed for a third year of declines after dropping 11 per cent in

2015. Palladium slumped 31 per cent, the most since 2008, while platinum lost 28 per cent. The

two metals, used in catalytic converters that curb car and truck emissions, fell this year partly

because of the Volkswagen AG emissions scandal, which hurt prospects for demand.

Gold fell on Wednesday, as the combination of a firm dollar and weak oil prices left the metal

on track for its third consecutive annual loss. Bullion has lost 10 percent of its value this year,

largely on concerns that higher U.S. interest rates would hurt demand for the non-yielding

asset. With little market-moving data due this week, bullion traders will rely on cues from the

currency and oil markets, analysts said. Following the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to raise

interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade this month and indications that the central

bank would resort to gradual increases in 2016, the outlook for gold does not look bullish. Gold

typically follows oil as the metal is often seen as a hedge against oilled inflation. Brent crude

oil retreated towards 11-year lows on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia's oil minister made it clear

the kingdom had no plans to scale back its output. Investor interest in gold remained absent,

with assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, still near a seven-year low. Speculative short positions on COMEX gold contracts are close to an all-time high.

Gold prices fell over nine per cent in 2015, recording its third consecutive year of decline, after

investors sought refuge in other asset classes, primarily equities and currencies, for higher

returns. Starting the year at $1,184.86 an oz (ounce) gold remained highly volatile throughout

2015 before closing at $1,067 an oz in London. Over five per cent depreciation in the rupee

against the dollar, however, cushioned domestic prices that fell 5.7 per cent to Rs 25,450 per 10

grams The pressure on gold was due to the intermittent recovery in the US economy led by afrequent drawdown in its unemployment. US Fed Chair Janet Yellen finally announced a 0.25

per cent hike in interest rate in December 2015 after deferring it for a few times during the

year. But, a dovish outlook on US interest rate helped gold from falling sharply. "More than the

0.25 per cent of interest rate hike, Yellen's language on the US economy was important in terms

of future rate hikes. Ideally, gold should have fallen after the interest rate hike, but, it moved in

a close range which indicates that nothing can be said firmly on the US economic growth for

future," said Jayant Manglik, president (retail distribution), Religare Equities. Silver followed

suit due to lack of investment demand and global economic slowdown led by China. The white

precious metal hit its five-year low in July 2015 following the rout in other industrial

commodities. It fell 11.8 per cent to $13.86 an oz from $15.71 an oz on December 31, 2014. A

strengthening US dollar added further pressure on precious metals. "Events that supported

gold's fall in 2015 look to continue in 2016 with many developed economies (China, Japan and

European countries) getting a booster of quantitative easing to protect them from falling," said

Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research. Quantitative easing may further

strengthen the US dollar. Since the dollar is inversely correlated with gold and silver may

remain under pressure in 2016.



Crude Oil

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Iranian diplomats had 48 hours to leave the

kingdom and Iran's supreme leader said Saudi Arabia would face "quick consequences" for

executing the cleric. Fearing further upheaval in the already volatile Middle East, the United

States has urged regional leaders to take measures to soothe tensions. At around 0230 GMT,

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in February was up 48 cents, or 1.30%, at

$37.52 and Brent crude for February was trading 61 cents, or 1.64%, higher at $37.89. "Oilstarted the new year on the mend, as Asian markets reacted to fears that geopolitical tensions in

the Middle East may threaten the supply of oil," said Bernard Aw, market strategist at IG

Markets in Singapore. Despite the rise, Aw said however that the persistent global crude

oversupply will continue to weigh down on prices over the longer term. "Unless we see a

convincing drop in oil output from these two nations, and the broader oil producing

community, the supply glut issue will persist, which means oil prices would remain under

pressure for a longer period," he said. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in the Organization

of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last month decided against cutting output levels

despite a plunge in oil prices. Iran is also a key OPEC member.

Crude prices fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday, with Brent sliding toward 11-year lows,

after an unusual build in U.S. stockpiles and signs Saudi Arabia will keep adding to the global

oil glut. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's largest petroleum producer, rose 2.6

million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Analysts polled by

Reuters had expected a draw of 2.5 million barrels. Stockpiles hit record highs at the Cushing,

Oklahoma delivery hub for Crude prices, however, did not lose much after their initial decline

on the EIA data. Some attributed that to thin, holiday-season volumes. WTI's front-month

contract traded just over 240 million barrels on Wednesday, about half of levels seen two

weeks ago, Reuters data showed. Crude prices began falling on Tuesday itself, retracing gainsin postsettlement trade after preliminary inventory data from industry group American

Petroleum Institute showed a build.

Natural gas futures fell 7 percent on Wednesday after

forecasts shifted to warmer weather, cutting short a four-day rally that boosted the price of the

heating fuel by more than 25 percent. Also weighing on the market were expectations that U.S.

gas stockpiles remained above normal for this time of year and not far from record highsdespite a strong draw forecast for last week. In the past four sessions, NYMEX's front-month

contract had risen nearly 50 cents on colder weather across most of the United States after

balmy conditions through much of autumn. Weather forecasts over the past week also indicated

the possibility of colder temperatures in the near term that prompted speculators to bet the key

winter months of January and February may have larger gas drawdowns too. Those expectation



Copper

Global apparent copper demand dropped 1.5%, or 250,000 tons, in the first nine months of

2015, as compared to the corresponding period last year, according to data from the

International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Apparent demand fell 4% and 8% YoY in the

European Union and Japan, respectively, in the first nine months of the year. Apparent demand

in the Americas rose 1.5% over this period.

Copper held steady on Wednesday, but expectations of surplus metal and weak demand in top

consumer China mean prices look likely to come under further pressure over coming sessions.

Copper hit a 6-1/2 year low below $4,450 last month. China accounts for nearly half of global

copper consumption estimated at 23 million tonnes this year.The ICSG provides a consolidated

estimate for the Americas. According to the ICSG, Chinese apparent copper demand rose 0.5%

YoY in the first nine months of the year. With the exclusion of China, global apparent copper

demand fell 3.5% over this period. The ICSG estimated that China’s apparent copper demand

in fiscal 2015 would be similar to last year’s level.

Lead

Tracking a weak trend at domestic spot market on subdued demand, lead fell 0.38% to Rs

118.75 per kg in futures trade today as traders trimmed their holdings. In futures trading at

Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month contracts shed 45 paise or

0.38% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a business turnover of 293 lots. Also, metal for delivery in

January contracts fell 40 paise or 0.34% to Rs 118.75 per kg in a turnover of 103 lots .Analysts

said that subdued demand from battery-makers and other consuming industries at the domestic

spot market, mainly kept pressure on lead futures prices here but firmness in base metal pack at

the London Metal Exchange capped the losses.

Nickel

Supported by a firming trend overseas, nickel prices jumped 0.50% to Rs 577.60 per kg in

futures trading today as participants widened their positions. Besides, rising demand at

domestic spot markets from alloy-makers also gave support. At the Multi Commodity

Exchange, nickel for delivery this month rose Rs 2.90, or 0.50%, to Rs 577.60 per kg in a

business turnover of 1,169 lots. The metal for delivery in January also gained Rs 2.40, or

0.41%, to trade at Rs 583.50 per kg in 866 lots. Marketmen said a firming trend in the base

metal pack at the London Metal Exchange (LME) amid speculation that demand conditions in

China may stabilise into next year as some producers start to scale back output to stem losses

and cut costs and pick up in domestic demand, mainly led to the rise in nickel futures here.



Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell by 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in futures trade today after traders reduced

their exposure amid muted domestic demand even as the metal strengthened at the London

Metal Exchange. At Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in current month

eased 30 paise or 0.30% to Rs 100.85 per kg in a business turnover of 99 lots. Also, the metal

for delivery in January 2016 contracts traded lower by 30 paise or 0.29% to Rs 101.85 per kg in

53 lots. Marketmen said the weakness in aluminium in futures trade is mostly due to sluggish

demand from consuming industries at the domestic market but metal's gain overseas limited the

losses.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

New crop insurance Initiatives

Crop insurance will be more attractive and farmer friendly after a new crop insurance scheme

early next year. Apart from extending scope and coverage in terms of area, crops and risk, the

aim is to ensure premium rates that states and farmers have to pay comes down.The minister

said dependence on digital technology — drones and satellites — would increase to map

farmland. The agriculture ministry has launched a pilot study for mapping farmland using space

technology and geospatial technology that will help improve crop yield estimation and settle

insurance claims faster. Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC) is undertaking

the pilot of the initiative called KISAN+ in four districts in Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya

Pradesh and Maharashtra during kharif 2015 season, and eight districts in the same states

during rabi 2015-16 season. KISAN+ project plans to use multi-parameter modelling for block

level yield estimation. At some sample locations, unmanned aerial vehicle and drones will

collect images.

Jeera

Jeera prices r ose 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal in futures trading on turesday as participants built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in domestic as well as export demand in the spot

market.Besides, tight stocks on restricted supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend.

At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in January 2016 rose

by Rs 135, or 0.96% to Rs 14,260 per quintal with an open interest of 8,613 lots.Similarly, the

spice for delivery in March contracts gained Rs 110, or 0.78% to Rs 14,275 per quintal in 3,399

lots.Rise in jeera futures prices to fresh positions built up by traders amid pick up domestic as

well as export demand in the spot market.

http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Jeera





Jeera Jan futures opened lower continuing its previous fall on improved sowing activities in

Gujarat. However, negative movement was limited on late covering of positions and closed the

trade at Rs. 14095 per quintal, down by 0.2 % from its previous trade. Jeera Spot prices at

bench mark market of Unjha traded in range of Rs.14700-15055/quintal. Pick up in sowing

activities in Gujarat after weather conditions turning suitable for sowing also weighed on the

market. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at

46700 tonnes lower by almost half of 89772 tonnes exported during same period in 2014. Stock

position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on 28th December is 2628 MT.

Turmeric

Turmeric April futures lower, traded lower initially on weak supply demand factors in the

market. However, negative movement was short lived, as short covering pulled the prices

upward. Hence, turmeric April contract traded and ended the day down at Rs 9974 per quintal,

higher by 0.73% from its previous trade. On spot market front at Erode market the prices were,

for finger variety Rs.9500-9700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 200 and Bulb variety traded steady in

range of Rs. 9400-9600 per quintal. According to Spice Board data, exports from India during

April until September was at 46500 tonnes higher by 2094 tonnes from 44406 tonnes exported

during same period in 2014. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3629

tons as on 28th December 2015.

Mustard seed

Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.77 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on

account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard

Seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,256 per quintal, down by 0.77 per cent,

after opening at Rs. 4,270 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,289. It touched the intra-

day low of Rs. 4,210. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result

of the weak demand for the commodity.

Coriander

Coriander Jan futures reached yet another lower circuit during previous trade on hopes of rapid

pick up in sowing activity in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jan futures traded at Rs. 7942 per quintal,6% lower from its previous close. Spot market took negative cues from futures market and

traded lower. At Kota spot, Eagle variety traded steady at Rs. 9300 per quintal and Badami

variety traded at Rs. 8700 per quintal, lower by Rs. 300 on negative cues from the spot market.

According to Spice Board data, exports from India during April until September was at 22650

tonnes lower by 6% from volume during same period in 2014. As on 28th Dec 2015, 19881

MT of valid stock is available in the NCDEX approved warehouses.



Chana

Chana prices closed lower by 0.04 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives

Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with

high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January 2016

contract closed at Rs. 4,805 per quintal, down by 0.04 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,812

against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,807. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,794.



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commodity research report 04 january 2016 ways2capital

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