commodity report ways2capital 09 june 2015

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China's economic policymakers clearly didn't consult mother-of-one Chen Xuejun when theydecided to try stimulating consumer demand by slashing import tariffs on sneakers to skincare.The 28-year-old speaks for many Chinese shoppers when she says the move last week won'tmake her shift her purchases back home from overseas, suggesting the economic upside may beless than Beijing has bargained for.

TRANSCRIPT

  • NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

    DAILY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 630 621 612 607 603 598 594 585 576

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 4168 4076 3984 3927 3892 3835 3800 3708 3616

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4439 4378 4317 4280 4256 4219 4195 4134 4073

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 19596 18856 18116 17623 17376 16883 16636 15896 15156

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4968 4888 4808 4767 4728 4687 4648 4568 4488

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4541 4398 4255 4173 4112 4030 3969 3826 3683

    NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 657 640 623 913 606 596 589 572 555

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 4562 4352 4142 4006 3932 3796 3722 3512 3302

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4769 4609 4449 4346 4289 4186 4129 3969 3809

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 21863 20443 19023 18076 17603 16656 16183 14763 13343

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 5598 5329 5060 4893 4791 4624 2522 4253 3984

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4874 4631 4388 4240 4145 3997 3902 3659 3416

  • MCX DAILY LEVELS

    DALLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 116 114 112 111 110 109 108 106 104

    COPPER 30 JUN 2015 399 393 387 384 381 378 375 369 363

    CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 4028 3925 3822 3782 3719 3679 3616 3513 3410

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 27661

    27349 37037 26879 26725 26567 26413 26101 25789

    LEAD 30 JUN 2015 131 128 125 123 122 120 119 116 113

    NATURAL GAS 25 JUN 2015 176 173 170 168 167 165 164 161 158

    NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 905 882 859 850 836 827 813 790 767

    SILVER 03 JUL 2015 38670

    38115 37560 37285 37005 36790 36450 35895 35340

    ZINC 30 JUN 2015 145

    142 139 138 136 135 133 130 127

    MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 119 116 113 111 110 108 107 104 101

    COPPER 30 JUN 2015 416 405 394 388 383 377 372 361 350

    CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 4614 4335 4056 3899 3777 3620 3498 3219 2940

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 29128 28376 27624 27172 26872 26420 26120 25368 24616

    LEAD 30 JUN 2015 134 130 126 124 122 120 118 114 110

    NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 198 188 178 172 168 162 158 148 138

    NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 964 919 874 857 829 812 784 739 694

    SILVER 05 JUL 2015 45903 43178 40453 38731 37728 36006 35003 32278 29553

  • MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    China import tax cuts no remedy for retail slowdown:China's economic policymakers clearly didn't consult mother-of-one Chen Xuejun when theydecided to try stimulating consumer demand by slashing import tariffs on sneakers to skincare.

    The 28-year-old speaks for many Chinese shoppers when she says the move last week won'tmake her shift her purchases back home from overseas, suggesting the economic upside may beless than Beijing has bargained for.

    The tariff cuts, effective from June 1, are the latest in a string of measures to stimulate domesticconsumption and bolster economic growth, which hit a 24-year low last year. Privateconsumption now accounts for over half of China's GDP growth, but lags far behind levels inmarkets like the United States. A Reuters analysis suggests shoppers may be right to besceptical. High Street prices of imported goods can be about 40 percent higher in China thanoverseas, and data shows the tariff cuts are unlikely to make much difference.

    China May services PMI up to 53.5, new biz up since 2012:The headline HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was 53.5, up from 52.9in April and well above the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction. The Mayfigure represented the fourth straight month of acceleration.

    Activity in China's services sector accelerated in May as new business rose at the fastest pace inthree years, a private survey showed on Wednesday, a rare piece of good news for policymakersstruggling to reviving a cooling economy.

    Still, economists remain cautious on China's overall economic outlook, as credit growthremains weak and manufacturing stagnates, reinforcing views that authorities will have to rollout more stimulus to avert a sharper slowdown.

    The headline HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was 53.5, up from 52.9in April and well above the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction. The Mayfigure represented the fourth straight month of acceleration.

    The new business sub-component was at 54.4, up from 52.8 in April and the highest readingsince 54.7 in May 2012. Employment at services firms grew at the fastest rate since January2013, the survey showed, another encouraging sign for policymakers as layoffs continue in themanufacturing sector, China's traditional jobs engine.

    "Overall, growth momentum appears relatively weak, weighed down by an ongoingdeterioration in manufacturing operating conditions," said Annabel Fiddes, economist atMarkit. "Therefore, further stimulus measures may be required to keep up with (thegovernment's) annual GDP growth target of 7 percent." A news release did not give specificreasons for the strong pick-up in business in May.

  • Greece and Ukraine crises drown out G7 agenda :Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations meet on Sunday in the Bavarian Alpsfor a summit overshadowed by Greeces debt crisis and ongoing violence in Ukraine. HostAngela Merkel is hoping to secure commitments from her G7 guests to tackle global warmingto build momentum in the run-up to a major United Nations climate summit in Paris inDecember.

    The German agenda also foresees discussions on global health issues, from Ebola to antibioticsand tropical diseases. But on the evening before the German chancellor welcomes the leadersof Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Japan and the United States, she and French PresidentFrancois Hollande were forced into their fourth emergency phone call in 10 days with GreekPrime Minister Alexis Tsipras to try to break a deadlock between Athens and its internationalcreditors.

    Merkel is due to hold talks with US President Barack Obama on Sunday morning before thesummit gets underway, with Ukraine, Middle East turmoil and the TTIP free trade agreementbeing negotiated between Washington and the European Union at the top of the agenda.

    BULLION Gold

    Gold futures ticked down on Friday extending losses from earlier this week, as optimistic U.S.jobs data increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner thanpreviously expected. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,goldfutures for August delivery fell 7.00 or 0.60% to 1,168.20 a troy ounce. Gold futuresplummeted to a monthly-low of 1,162.20 before rising slightly on a choppy day of trading. Atone point, gold hit a session-high of 1,178.00.

    Gold prices plunged early on Friday morning after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releasedbetter than expected job figures for the month of May. Last month, U.S. non-farm payrollssoared by 280,000, far exceeding analysts' low end of forecasts for a 220,000 gain. Privatepayrolls increased by 262,000 in May, as professional business services added 63,000 positionson the month. The labor market also added 17,000 construction position, following a significantgain of 35,000 a month earlier.

    The Fed's decision to tighten monetary policy is viewed as bearish for gold. The precious metalis not attached to dividends or interest rates and struggles to compete with high-yield bearingassets in periods of rising rates.

    Separately, Federal Reserve of New York president William Dudley reiterated on Friday thatthe Fed will likely raise rates at some point this year. It is widely expected that the Fed could

  • wait until September before raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate, though it has not ruled outlift-off in June. On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund suggested that the Fed shouldwait until the first half of 2016 for lift-off unless the U.S. economy improves dramatically overthe next several months.

    As expected, the two sides in the Greek Debt negotiations failed to reached an agreement onFriday. Earlier this week, France president Francois Hollande said Greece and its internationalcreditors appeared to be hours from reaching a deal on agreement that could unlock critical aidto the beleaguered nation. Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras, though, may have rankledcreditors on Thursday by bundling four separate obligations to the IMF into one repayment atthe end of this month. In doing so, Greece delayed repayment of a EUR 300 million paymentdue on Friday.

    ENERGY

    Crude Oil

    Crude futures rose steadily on Friday, halting a midweek slump as OPEC expectedly keptproduction levels unchanged from their current level at approximately 30 million barrels perday.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery gained 1.12 or 1.94%to 59.12 a barrel ending a two-session losing streak. U.S. Crude futures plunged roughly 5%over the previous two session in advance of Friday's meeting in Vienna.

    Texas Long Sweet futures plunged more than 1% ahead of Friday's announcement to adaily-low of $56.86, before reversing course after the world's largest oil cartel decided to keepproduction levels steady for the second time in six months.While crude prices are downdramatically from their peak of $115 last summer, they are still up more than 10% fromtouching down to a 52-week low of $45 a barrel in January. At Friday's meeting Iran oilminister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh indicated that he expects crude prices to reach $75 by year'send.Although the majority of OPEC's smaller nations have advocated for a slash in productionoutput to boost prices, they have been overruled by Saudi Arabia which is looking to undercutU.S. shale producers by depressing prices.

    On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery rose 1.32 or 2.14% to63.35 a barrel, ending a two-session skid. Brent futures also fell before the meeting droppingbelow $61 before rallying later in the session. The spread between the international and U.S.benchmarks for crude stood at 4.23, slightly above Thursday's level.In the U.S., oil servicesfirm Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell last week by

  • four to 642, the lowest level since August, 2010. It marked the 26th consecutive week ofweekly rig declines. Though U.S. shale producers have been forced to slash drilling due to thelower price of crude, they have responded by keeping their more efficient rigs online.TheU.S.Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus six other majorcurrencies, surged 0.86% to 96.32 amid strong U.S. jobs data.Dollar-denominated commoditiessuch as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

    Natural gas

    Natural gas futures fell for the third consecutive session on Friday to settle near a five-weeklow as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead and concerns over amplesupplies weighed.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Natural gas for delivery in July fell3.6 cents, or 1.37%, on Friday to end at $2.590 per million British thermal units by close oftrade. A day earlier, natural gas prices hit $2.556, a level not seen since April 30.For the week,the July natural gas contract declined 2.5 cents, or 1.97%, the third straight weekly loss.

    Futures were likely to find support at $2.556, the low from June 4, and resistance at $2.675, thehigh from June 4.Weather forecasting models called for mostly normal temperatures across theU.S. through mid-June, suggesting little demand for the fuel and paving the way for additionalhefty inventory builds in the weeks ahead.Spring usually sees the weakest demand for naturalgas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and airconditioning.Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly reporton Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 132 billion cubic feet, aboveexpectations for an increase of 121 billion and following a build of 112 billion cubic feet in thepreceding week. Supplies rose by 118 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while thefive-year average change is an increase of 92 billion cubic feet.

    Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.233 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 50.7% higherthan during the same week a year earlier and 1.0% above the five-year average for this time ofyear.Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers havemade up for all of last winters unusually strong demand.The EIA's next storage report slatedfor release on Thursday, June 4 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubicfeet for the week ending June 5.Supplies rose by 109 billion cubic feet in the same week lastyear, while the five-year average change is an increase of 89 billion cubic feet.Elsewhere on theNymex, Crude oil for July delivery settled at $59.13 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, down$1.16, or 1.94%, on the week, while heating oil for July delivery dropped 4.11% on the week tosettle at $1.869 per gallon.

  • BASE METAL

    Copper

    Copper prices were lower on Wednesday, as traders eyed the release of key U.S. economic datalater in the day for fresh indications on the timing of a rate increase. On the Comex division ofthe New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery slipped 0.9 cents, or 0.32%, totrade at $2.727 a pound during European morning hours. Prices held in a range between $2.726and $2.748.

    Futures were likely to find support at $2.710, the low from June 1, and resistance at $2.784, thehigh from May 29.A day earlier, copper prices tacked on 1.6 cents, or 0.59%, to close at$2.736, supported by a broadly weaker U.S. dollar.The U.S dollar index, which measures thegreenbacks strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at a morethan one-week low of 96.05.The greenback dropped after data on Tuesday showed that factoryorders fell 0.4% in April, confounding expectations for a 0.2% increase. On a year-over-yearbasis, factory orders dropped 6.4%, the sixth straight monthly decline.

    The unexpectedly weak data sparked fresh fears over the outlook for second quarter growthafter data last month showed that the U.S. economy contracted 0.2% in the firstquarter.Meanwhile, hopes that Greece will soon reach an agreement with its internationallenders on a cash-for-reforms deal boosted the Euro.Greece is due to make a 305 millionpayment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday but has warned that it will be unable tomake the repayment if a deal is not reached by then.Elsewhere, gold futures for August deliverydipped $5.20, or 0.44%, to trade at $1,189.20 a troy ounce, while silver futures for Julydelivery shed 13.9 cents, or 0.83% to trade at $16.66 an ounce.

    Nickel

    Nickel futures ended lower in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculatorsexited positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand for nickel in the domesticspot market. Moreover, a slowdown in the world economy as the OECD pared its globalgrowth forecast for 2015 from 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent darkened the outlook for theindustrial metal. Record stockpiles of the base metal also soured sentiment, with stockpiles ofNickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rising a whopping 66 per cent in the past year toa record 470,118 metric tons. At the MCX, Zinc futures for June 2015 contract is trading at Rs827.40 per 1 kg, down by 0.49 per cent after opening at Rs 829.30, against the previous closingprice of Rs 831.50.

  • Zinc

    Zinc futures succumbed to significant losses in the domestic market on Friday as investors andspeculators exited positions in the industrial metal amid weak physical demand for zinc in thedomestic spot market. Further, caution ahead of the US jobs data and fears over Greece keptinvestors edgy. Greece has asked for a deferral on its debt payments to the IMF, becoming thefirst country since the 1980s to delay a loan repayment to the Washington-based institution,taking it closer to a catastrophic default that threatens to shake up the euro. At the MCX, Zincfutures for June 2015 contract is trading at Rs 135.70 per 1 kg, down by 1.06 per cent afteropening at Rs 137, against the previous closing price of Rs 137.15.

    NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    Monsoon forecast

    Prices of agricultural commodities have started spiraling in the spot market, ahead of kharifsowing, due to the lower production estimates following a deficient monsoon forecast by theIndia Meteorological Department (IMD) this year.A little over 60 per cent of the countryscultivable land is only rain-fed and 70 per cent of the annual rainfall takes place during themonsoon.

    The firmness in agri commodity prices began midApril, when IMDfirst came out with arainfall forecast of 93 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). In May, prices rose up to 30per cent in wholesale markets. The rise has been more in the past three week.According to theUnion government's department of consumer affairs, wheat rose 30 per cent in May to tradecurrently at Rs 2,138 a quintal as against Rs 1,650 a qtl on May 1. There has been a lowerpercentage of increase in pulses, potatoes and edible oils.The price rise is only because oflower production fear. A further rally in the short term looks unlikely. Future movement woulddepend on the progress of actual rainfall. The governments response to deficient rain wouldalso have a significant bearing on commodity prices.IMD's current forecast is 88 per cent of theLPA and this has worried all, including the government, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI),farmers, traders and consumers. The RBI governor has already raised concern over inflationarypressure due to less rain.

    Union finance minister Arun Jaitley has sought to reassure on these concerns. Addressingjournalists in Delhi on Thursday, he said, The forecast rainfall pattern is similar to last year.Hence, food grain production might not have a significant impact. We have an abundance offood grain and our management was efficient last year, with no inflationary pressure (on thiscount).The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nationshas loweredIndias milled riceproduction forecast by 1.4 per cent to 94.5 million tonnes this year, as against95.8 mt last year. However, added FAO, in a report issued on Thursday, Cerealproduction isforecast to remain close to the record outputs of the previous year. Favorable weather and

  • sufficient input supplies in India, including irrigated water and fertilizer, are expected tocontribute to average yields in 2015, negating a small reduction in the area planted.

    Global commodity prices

    Major food commodity prices declined again in May, hitting an almost six-year low as cerealprices fell substantially, amid a favorable outlook for this year's harvests globally.The FoodPrice Index compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nationsaveraged 166.8 points in May, down 1.4 per cent from April and as much as 20.7 per cent froma year earlier. Cereals and dairy products were responsible for much of last months decline,although meat quotations also fell. By contrast, the oils and sugar markets firmed up. The Mayaverage puts the Food Price Index at its lowest level since September 2009.

    The agency has revised upwards its global cereal production outlook for 2015, to 2,524 milliontonnes (including rice in milled terms), almost 15 mt higher than reported in May. At this level,world production would be one per cent or 25.6 mt lower than the record in 2014.

    Chana

    Continuing its slide for the second day, chana prices fell further by 0.59% to Rs 4,741 perquintal in futures market on Friday, as participants reduced holdings, prompted by highersupplies from producing belts.However, lower output estimates capped the losses.At theNational Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in July contracts declined Rs28, or 0.59%, to Rs 4,741 per quintal with an open interest of 1,83,850 lots.

    Refined soya oil

    Falling for the second straight day, refined soya oil prices fell 0.27 per cent to Rs 608.30 per 10kg in futures trade on Friday amid subdued demand in the spot market.At National Commodityand Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August eased Rs 1.65, or 0.27 percent, to Rs 608.30 per 10 kg with an open interest of 1,97,430 lots.Similarly, the oil for deliveryin June contracts edged down Rs 1.30, or 0.21 per cent, to Rs 619.75 per 10 kg in 40,300lots.Market analysts said offloading of positions amid lower demand in the spot market againstadequate stock position mainly kept pressure on refined soya oil prices.

    Castorseed

    Castorseed prices fell by 0.32 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & DerivativesExchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandiesas well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015contract was trading at Rs. 4,003 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.32 per cent, after opening at Rs.4,016 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,016.Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is

  • the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.

    Mustard seed

    Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.66 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity &Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders onaccount of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, MustardSeed futures for June 2014 contract closed at Rs. 4,243 per quintal, down 0.66 per cent, afteropening at Rs. 4,272 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,271. It touched the intra daylow of Rs. 4,236. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result ofthe weak demand for the commodity. EU-27 accounts to about 34 per cent of worlds RM seedproduction.

  • LEGAL DISCLAIMER

    This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow MarketResearch Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates containedherein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have beenobtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of theintended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/CommoditiesResearch opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2CapitalEquity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to beresponsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Researchexpressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissionsin this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation tobuy any securities or commodities.

    All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical& fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept anyliability for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the productservices of their own choices.

    Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss doneon these recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment.Company holds the right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsingthrough website means acceptance of disclaimer.

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