E

MCX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29-DEC-2017 137.50 135.50 133.50 132.50 131.50 130.50 129.50 127.50 125.50

COPPER 28- FEB-2018 470 461 452 448.90 443 439 434 428 416

CRUDE OIL 19-JAN-2018 3775 3739 3703 3690 3667 3650 3631 3595 3559

GOLD 05-FEB -2018 28868 28674 28480 28367 28280 28173 28090 27900 27700

LEAD 29-DEC-2017 171.20 167.90 164.70 163.40 161.50 160.10 158.20 154.90 151.70

NATURAL GAS 26-DEC-2017 198 188 179 173 169 163 159 149 139

NICKEL 29-DEC-2017 816 788 760 749 732 721 704 676 648

SILVER 05-MAR-2018 38455 38027 37599 37402 37171 36974 36743 36315 35887

ZINC 29-DEC-2017 214.90 277.75 208.50 206.90 205.20 203.75 202.15 198.90 195.70

Monday 18 December 2017

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29-DEC-2017 142.80 138.80 134.80 133.20 130.80 129.30 126.80 122.80 118.80

COPPER 28- FEB-2018 502.80 481.50 460.20 453.20 438.90 431.70 417.60 396.30 375

CRUDE OIL 19-JAN-2018 4213 4036 3859 3764 3684 3587 3505 3328 3151

GOLD 05-FEB -2018 29720 29240 28761 28500 28280 20827 27800 27320 26840

LEAD 29-DEC-2017 177.90 172.90 166.60 164.3 161 158.70 155.30 149.70 144

NATURAL GAS 26-DEC-2017 226 208 190 178 171 160 153 135 117

NICKEL 29-DEC-2017 862 817 772 755 727 710 682 637 592

SILVER 05-MAR-2018 39769 38892 38017 37611 37141 36735 36265 35389 34513

ZINC 29-DEC-2017 228.80 220.40 212 208.70 203.62 200.20 195.20 186.80 178.40

FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27-DEC-17 66.0400 65.45

00

64.900

0

64.550

0

64.300

0

63.950

0

63.700

0

63.150

0

62.5600

EURINR 27-DEC-17 78.1050 77.35

00

76.650

0

76.250

0

75.900

0

75.500

0

75.150

0

74.450

0

73.6950

GBPINR 27-DEC-17 88.7150 87.90

00

87.100

0

86.600

0

86.300

0

85.800

0

85.500

0

84.700

0

83.8850

JPYINR 27-DEC-17 58.7850 58.25

00

57.700

0

57.500

0

57.150

0

56.950

0

56.600

0

56.050

0

55.5150

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27-DEC-17 65.0500 64.8000 64.5500 64.5500 64.30

00

64.300

0

64.050

0

63.800

0

63.55

00

EURINR 27-DEC-17 77.4250 76.9000 76.4000 76.1500 75.85

00

75.600

0

75.350

0

74.800

0

74.27

50

GBPINR 27-DEC-17 87.3850 87.0000 86.6000 86.3500 86.20

00

85.950

0

85.800

0

85.400

0

85.01

50

JPYINR 27-DEC-17 57.9575 57.7000 57.4500 57.3000 57.20

00

57.050

0

56.950

0

56.700

0

56.44

25

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ BULLION

Gold prices clung to earlier gains and were poised for their first weekly gain in four weeks on Friday,

withstanding pressure from strong equities markets on continued support from this week's interest rate rise

by the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates usually push gold lower because they raise bond yields,

reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion, and boost the dollar, making gold more expensive for holders

of other currencies. But markets had priced in Wednesday's rise and the dollar and bond yields fell after the

Fed kept its outlook for three rate rises next year unchanged and said proposed U.S. tax cuts would not

significantly spur growth. U.S. inflation remained weak, which Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said

on Friday undermined the case for rate rises. The dollar recouped some losses as Republican senators

worked to resolve disagreements on the tax reform. Major stock indexes hit record highs.

✍ BASE METAL

Among base metals complex, LME Nickel prices traded higher on Monday after the Chinese government

slashed the export duties over some steel products which would in return increase demand for the metal.

China will cut export taxes on some steel products and fertilisers and ditch those for sales abroad of steel

wire, rod and bars from Jan. 1, the Ministry of Finance said on Friday. Recently, INSG report showed the

widening of deficit in global nickel market to 65,700 tonnes in the first nine months of the year, from

47,400 tonnes, in the same period of 2016. As per CFTC, Hedge funds and money managers cut their net

long position in COMEX copper contracts in the week to Dec. 12. However in Zinc due to ample

availability of supply spread between cash & 3 month forward contract has fallen to zero from above

$90/ton in October which was the highest since Dec 2006. Aluminum was getting a second boost from

separate China data showing production for November slumped to 2.35 million tonnes, which was down

7.7 percent from October and the lowest absolute level since February this year. Copper prices scaled three-

week highs on Friday after the New York open and as expectations of strong demand in top consumer China

were reinforced by data showing firm industrial activity. Traders said rising stock market indices on Wall

Street had boosted sentiment and sparked a wave of buying on industrial metals markets

ENERGY✍

Crude oil prices hovered near to Friday’s levels as lack of new price driver casts the shadow over the prices.

On Friday, baker Hughes showed the decline in US active rig by 4 to 747 for the first time in six weeks. In

the major development in OPEC nations, Nigeria’s PENGASSAN union has threatened to go on strike from

Monday after talks aimed at resolving a dispute with domestic oil and gas companies reached a deadlock. In

Nigeria, Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which mainly

works in the upstream oil industry, is clashing with the companies over the laying off of union members.

And has threatened os Saturday to go on strike from Monday. Separately, Forties pipeline pipeline, which

carries about a one fourth of all North Sea crude output and about one third of Britain's offshore gas

production, has been closed since last week, following the discovery of a small crack in part of the system

onshore in Scotland. As per CFTC data, the speculator group cut its combined futures and options position

in New York and London by 7,542 contracts to 435,200 during the period. The group cut its gross long

positions to 435,764 from 439,751. The group cut its short positions to 44,890 from 47,320.

NG prices remained negative on Friday as prices went lower around 2.68% in International markets and

went down by 3.3% at its closing in MCX futures market. As per CFTC, U.S. gas speculators cut their net

long positions to the least since August 2016 on expectations supplies will be adequate this winter with

storage near normal levels, output at record highs and warmer than seasonal winter forecasts.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW

✍ LEAD

MCX LEAD has forming head & shoulder pattern breakout which suggests positive trend for the short term.

Above the level of 163.30 Price expected to provide fuel to the rally going ahead. Daily RSI (14) has given a

trendline breakout which indicates change in momentum. Daily MACD has entered in a bullish crossover.

Based on the above analysis, we expect a smart rally in the MCX LEAD price over the short period of time.

BUY LEAD DEC ABOVE 163.30 TGT 163.30 SL 161.5

✍ SILVER

MCX Silver price has closed in the green at the end of last trading session. Comex Silver has closed in the

green for the third consecutive sessions. In addition, Comex Silver price has moved back above $16 mark. On

the daily chart of Comex Silver, momentum indicator RSI (14) is seen to have reversed from the oversold zone

and currently in a bullish crossover. MACD is in bullish crossover. Based on the above technical set up and

indicators, we expect a pullback in MCX Silver price.

BUY SILVER MAR ABOVE 37500 TGT 38000 SL 37200

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-JAN-2018 745.70 739.70 733.80 731.50 727.80 725.60 721.80 715.80 709.80

SYBEANIDR 19-JAN-2018 3170 3126 3082 3065 3038 3021 2994 2950 2906

RMSEED 19-JAN-2018 4107 4058 4009 3991 3960 3940 3911 3862 3813

JEERAUNJHA 19-JAN-2018 22670 22260 21850 21650 21440 21240 21030 20620 20210

GUARSEED10 19-JAN-2018 4013 3961 3909 3888 3857 3837 3805 3753 3701

TMC 20-APR-2018 8021 7841 7661 7562 7480 7382 7301 7121 6941

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19-JAN-2018 754.60 745.70 736.70 733 727.50 724.20 718.80 709.90 700.90

SYBEANIDR 19-JAN-2018 3440 3314 3188 3118 3059 2992 2936 2810 2684

RMSEED 19-JAN-2018 4304 4196 4088 4030 3980 3922 3872 3764 3656

JEERAUNJH

A

19-JAN-2018 24300 23380 22460 21950 21540 21035 20620 19700 18780

GUARSEED10 19-JAN-2018 4275 4134 3992 3931 3850 3789 3709 3568 3426

TMC 20-APR-2018 8328 8034 7740 7602 7440 7308 7152 6858 6564

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

✍ SPICE COMPLEX

NCDEX Jan Jeera falls for the second consecutive day on Friday as market participants initiated fresh selling.

For the December contract NCDEX reported record deliveries allocations of 3,633 tonnes on exchange platform

in first three days of staggered delivery period. The market is also cautious after it touched all time higher this

month. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat also pressurizes prices. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up

by 37.4% to 3.1 lakh ha this year compared to 2.3 lakh ha last year as on 11th Dec. As per government data, Jeera

exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports

volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the

first 15 days of Dec down by 50% to 1,985 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.Turmeric Apr

contract closed lower on Friday due to fresh selling but prices improved on week due to firm physical demand

and expectation of improved up-country demand from the new season. The supplies have improved during last

one month due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to

56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher

during first 15 days in December this year to 13,033 tonnes compared to 5,820 tonnes last year same month

according to Agmarknet data.

✍ OILSEED COMPLEX

Mustard Jan futures closed higher on Friday but 1% down on week. Currently the prices looking move according

to the winter demand but reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers keep pressure on prices.

According to MOPA, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov’17 was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills

across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month. The acreage of

mustard was down 7% till last week at 61 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government. Rajasthan

is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.7 lakh

ha.NCDEX Soybean futures closed higher on Friday on fresh buying by the market participants on lower level

buying and anticipation of improved demand but down for the week on higher stocks with the mills. The arrivals

have been lower in first half of December compared to previous 15 days. As per, Agmarknet, 3.72 lakh tonnes of

soybean arrived in physical market in December against close to 5 last year for the same time period. Moreover,

in the second half of October about 7.41 lakh tonnes arrived in the market. SOPA increased its meal exports

estimates for 2017/18 as government has increased export incentives by 2% to for all meals. According to SOPA,

Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous

estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives. US Soybean futures closed lower on Friday

supported by forecasts of rain in Argentina and higher production forecast in 2018. There is expectation for

rain this weekend in dry areas of Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter. The 2017/18 Brazilian

soybean crop is now estimated at 109.1 mt, which is up from the 107.5 mt estimated in November. US

soybean planted acreage for 2018 is expected to hit 91.4 million acres, according to Informa analysts.

✍ OTHER COMPLEX

Chana Jan futures jumped higher on Friday on short covering on reports of higher stocks and improved

sowing progress. As per government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep,

up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop

across the country was up 13.7% on year at 96.23 lakh ha as on last week. Area under Chana exceeds 90

lakh ha for the second consecutive year. Last year area was close to 99 lakh ha. MP, Maharashtra, Rajasthan

and Karnataka exceed normal sowing area this season. The NCDEX have imposed a special margin of 5%

on the sell side to support falling prices.

MCX Dec Cotton rises 2.76% on week tracking lower arrivals and expectation of fall in domestic output

due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Moreover, higher bonus in Gujarat and increase in

consumption by the mills is also supporting prices. As per Cotton Advisory Board, demand from textile

mills is likely to be 315 lakh bales this season as against 288.86 lakh bales last season, while exports might

go up to 67 lakh bales as against 58.21 lakh bales last season. According to industry sources, cotton exports

to Pakistan might be higher this year. ICE cotton rose on Friday boosted by technical buying, as the March

contract touched an all-time high and notched an eighth consecutive weekly gain. USDA monthly crop

supply and demand report was bullish it raised its U.S. cotton production forecast for 2017-18 by 63,000

bales and exports estimates by 300,000 bales compared with its outlook last month, and projecting ending

stocks at 5.8 million bales as against 6.1 million bales seen in November.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW

GUARSEED10 ✍

Market is continuously making higher lows forming ascending triangle formation indicating positive

movement in upcoming session. It is facing important resistance level at Rs.3913 above the level we believe

that market can touch the level of Rs.3980 & Rs.4000. Traders can follow the buy on dips strategy. Momentum

still positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal.

The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices

for the GUARSEED.

BUY GUARSEED10 JAN ABOVE 3913 TGT 4000 SL 3860

SYOREF✍

Refined Soy Oil Jan contract jumped higher tracking higher spot prices. However, the prices have been traded

sideways during last week due to higher stocks due to improved domestic crushing and higher imports in

November. For the second half of December, government further cut the base import price of soy oil, by $20

per tonnes. According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association, India vegetable oil imports rose

around 6% on year to 12.5 lakh tonnes in November. Soyoil imports surged by 66.7% in November to 2.74 lt

compared to 1.64 lt last year.

BUY SYOREF JAN ABOVE 730 TGT 740 SL 725

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