commodity research report 22 january 2018 ways2capital

Monday, January 22, 2018

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

1

MCX Market Wrap-up

Commodity Contract Previous

Close Open High Low Close

Change in Price (in %)

Change in OI (in %)

Change in Vol- ume (in %)

Aluminum 31-Jan-18 141 142 144.9 139 141.75 0.53% 22.95% 11.94%

Copper 28-Feb-18 453.05 457.9 462.45 449.8 450.45 -0.57% 0.13% -89.02%

Crude Oil 16-Feb-18 3897 4020 4129 4018 4042 3.72% -9.49% 845.49%

Gold 5-Feb-18 29547 29600 29850 29550 29755 0.70% 16.96% -31.48%

Lead 31-Jan-18 161.6 162.4 167.95 161.85 165.4 2.35% 19.89% 15.66%

Natural Gas 25-Jan-18 204 202.2 210 195.4 203.5 -0.25% -30.84% -31.97%

Nickel 31-Jan-18 803.7 814 822.3 782.4 807.8 0.51% 5.90% 10.85%

Silver 5-Mar-18 39063 39325 39693 38573 38969 -0.24% -1.15% -33.63%

Zinc 31-Jan-18 217.6 217.9 221.25 216.8 219 0.64% -1.32% 8.75%

NCDEX Market Wrap-up

Commodity Contract Previous



Change in OI (in %)

Change in Vol- ume (in %)

Castor Seed 20-Feb-18 4121 4128 4147 3976 4051 -1.70% -79.83% 42.12%

Chana 20-Mar-18 3817 382 3857 3651 3677 -3.67% -78.44% 51.48%

Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 6087 6027 6080 5616 5704 -6.29% -15.63% 29.27%

Cottonseed Oil Cake

20-Feb-18 1790 1786 1800 1740 1748.5 -2.32% -79.26% -27.06%

Guargum5 20-Feb-18 9465 9571 9600 8974 9219 -2.60% 0.07% 33.56%

Guarseed10 20-Feb-18 4354 4398 4422 4198 4276.5 -1.78% 0.87% 27.48%

Jeera 20-Mar-18 16860 16885 17190 16485 16560 -1.78% -26.08% 35.26%

Kapas 30-Apr-18 1022 1013 1019 987 1003.5 -1.81% 4.53% -2.42%

RMseed 20-Apr-18 4066 4069 4125 3985 4036 -0.74% -14.30% 32.36%

Ref Soya Oil 20-Feb-18 740.05 739.7 744.8 732.6 734.25 -0.78% -5.61% 12.37%

Soyabean 20-Feb-18 3233 3255 3381 3255 3365 4.08% 3.22% 16.66%

Turmeric 20-Apr-18 7620 7610 7666 7260 7330 -3.81% 5.07% 51.43%

Mentha Oil 31-Jan-18 1657.4 1624 1643.9 1516 1543.3 -6.88% -3.52% -30.17%

Currency Market Wrap-up

Currency Pair

Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Close Change in

Price (in %)

USDINR 29-Jan-18 63.725 63.6025 64.2625 63.4325 63.8925 0.26%

GBPINR 29-Jan-18 86.835 87.3475 88.9075 87.1625 88.8175 2.28%

EURINR 29-Jan-18 77.98 77.5750 79.0000 77.4450 78.385 0.52%

JPYINR 29-Jan-18 57.4025 57.4500 58.0175 57.3075 57.7175 0.55%

Continued……


2

International Market Wrap-up

Commodity Exchange Previous



Aluminum LME 2221 2228 2269.75 2170.5 2220.75 -0.01%

Copper COMEX 3.2 3.221 3.291 3.179 3.18 -0.63%

Crude Oil NYMEX 64.3 64.42 64.89 62.84 63.57 -1.14%

Gold COMEX 1334.9 1337.7 1344.9 1324.4 1331.1 -0.28%

Lead LME 2540 2636.5 2630.75 2530.75 2586.75 1.84%

Natural Gas NYMEX 3.2 3.124 3.288 3.039 3.184 -0.50%

Nickel LME 12662.5 12725 12977.5 12192.5 12687.5 0.20%

Silver COMEX 17.24 17.24 17.445 16.82 17.025 -1.25%

Zinc LME 3390.5 3403.75 3444.25 3356 3407 0.49%


3

LME Inventory Update

Commodity

Closing (As on 05th Jan 18) in

Tonnes

Closing (As on 29th Dec 17) in

Tonnes

% Change

Copper 205475 201650 1.90%

Nickel 362532 368292 -1.56%

Lead 139650 142575 -2.05%

Zinc 180025 180175 -0.08%

Aluminium 1090875 1088325 0.23%

Continued…….


4


5

Upcoming Economic Events Calender

Time Currency Event Forecast Previous

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

16:30 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) 12 17

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

3:05 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -5.121M

15:00 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 2.50% 2.50%

15:00 GBP Claimant Count Change (Dec) 3.2K 5.9K

15:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.30% 4.30%

20:15 USD Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 55 55.1

20:15 USD Market Composite PMI 54.1

20:15 USD Services PMI (Jan) 54 53.7

20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Dec) 5.70M 5.81M

20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) -2.10% 5.60%

21:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.536M -6.861M

21:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -4.184M

Thursday, January 25, 2018

15:00 GBP Gross Mortgage Approvals 39.5K

19:00 USD Goods Trade Balance (Dec) -70.00B

19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 239K 220K

20:30 USD New Home Sales (Dec) 679K 733K

20:30 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec) -7.90% 17.50%

0.875 USD Natural Gas Storage -183B

Friday, January 26, 2018

15:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.40% 1.70%

15:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.40% 0.40%

19:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.60% -0.10%

19:00 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) 0.80% 1.30%

19:00 USD GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 3.00% 3.20%

19:00 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.30% 2.10%

23:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

Currency Weekly Pivots

Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

USDINR 29-Jan-18 65.5000 64.7000 64.2500 63.8500 63.4500 63.0000 62.2000

GBPINR 29-Jan-18 91.8000 90.0500 89.4500 88.3000 87.7000 86.5500 84.8000

EURINR 29-Jan-18 81.4000 79.8500 79.1500 78.3000 77.6000 76.7500 75.2000

JPYINR 29-Jan-18 59.1000 58.4000 58.1000 57.7000 57.4000 57.0000 56.3000


6

MCX Weekly Pivots

Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Aluminium 31-Jan-18 153.70 147.80 144.80 141.90 138.90 136.00 130.10

Copper 28-Feb-18 479.55 466.9 458.7 454.25 446.05 441.60 428.95

Crude Oil 16-Feb-18 4285 4174 4108 4063 3997 3952 3841

Gold 5-Feb-18 30318 30018 29887 29718 29587 29418 29118

Lead 31-Jan-18 177.25 171.15 168.25 165.05 162.15 158.95 152.85

Natural Gas 25-Jan-18 232.15 217.55 210.5 202.95 195.9 188.35 173.75

Nickel 31-Jan-18 884 844 826 804 786 764 724

Silver 5-Mar-18 41318 40198 39584 39078 38464 37958 36838

Zinc 31-Jan-18 227.9 223.45 221.2 219 216.75 214.55 210.10

NCDEX Weekly Pivots

Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Castor Seed 20-Feb-18 4400 4229 4140 4058 3969 3887 3716

Chana 20-Mar-18 4140 3934 3806 3728 3600 3522 3316

Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 6728 6264 5984 5800 5520 5336 4872

Cotton Seed Oilcake

20-Feb-18 1883 1823 1786 1763 1726 1703 1643

Guargum5 20-Feb-18 10516 9890 9555 9264 8929 8638 8012

Guarseed10 20-Feb-18 4747 4523 4400 4299 4176 4075 3851

Jeera 20-Mar-18 18155 17450 17005 16745 16300 16040 15335

Kapas 30-Apr-18 1067 1035 1019 1003 987 971 939

RMseed 20-Apr-18 4329 4189 4112 4049 3972 3909 3769

Ref Soya Oil 20-Feb-18 762 749 742 737 730 725 713

Soyabean 20-Feb-18 3586 3460 3412 3334 3286 3208 3082

Turmeric 20-Apr-18 8231 7825 7577 7419 7171 7013 6607

Mentha Oil 31-Jan-18 1824 1696 1620 1568 1492 1440 1312


7

BULLION

Silver futures rose for the first time in four sessions even as the dollar index gained

ground, following a basket of data from the US the world's largest economy while

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic and Federal Reserve

Governor Randal Quarles spoke earlier today. As of 06:24 GMT, silver futures due on

March 15 rose 0.38% to $17.025 an ounce from the opening of $16.960, while the

dollar index rose 0.14% to 90.63 from the opening of 90.50. Friday is the deadline of

the latest budget deal between Republicans and Democrats and in case the Senate

failed to pass the bill the government will be shut down temporarily.

BASE METALS

Copper futures tilted lower in American trade as the dollar index settled higher ahead

of later data from the US the world's largest economy. The Lead is in perfect up trend

.Currently Lead is in strong up trend and the trend is supported with good volume The

open interest is not increasing with trend. Cautious point is buying at higher levels

seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing buy signal for short term Lead is in hold

long position.

ENERGY

Oil prices fell nearly one percent in American trade away from 37-month highs

heading for the first weekly loss since mid-December as the dollar index gained

modest ground following earlier data from the US the world's largest energy

consumer. OPEC released its monthly report earlier where it detailed an increase in

output by 42 thousand bpd in December with more than quarter of this coming from

Saudi Arabia while global output rose 0.4 million bpd last month.OPEC said that

global demand growth in 2017 was revised to show an increase of 40 thousand bpd

while maintaining their forecasts for 2018 at 98.51 million bpd and increases

projections for growth of supplies outside OPEC by 160 thousand bpd in 2018 to 1.15

million bpd mostly from the US and Canada.


8

SPICES

NCDEX Mar Jeera continue to trade lower on Thursday falls by 0.4% on fresh

selling initiated by market participants pressured by the start of new season

arrivals coupled with weak physical demand at higher prices. The arrivals are

expected to pick up in next 15-20 days. Jeera production may be higher in

coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season.

OIL & OILSEEDS

Refined Soy Oil Feb contract falls for the third consecutive day on Thursday

mainly on profit booking by market participants tracking steady physical

demand. However, the prices have been trading near strong resistance near

740 levels. This level is breached last in the year 2013. Mustard Apr futures

fell for the second consecutive day on Wednesday due to fresh selling by the

market participants tracking weak demand in physical market. Market is still

expecting for some demand side fundamentals as downside looks limited.

Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP due to reports good sowing

progress.

GUAR COMPLEX

Guar complex futures traded higher last week. Good demand from stockiest and

guar gum producers and reduced supply at major trading centers helped prices

to trade on positive bias during the week. However, guar gum futures settled

marginally down on profit booking and closed the day at Rs.8931/quintal,Total

stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were reported at

26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arrivals of guar were

reported at 30800 bags yesterday at major trading centers across Rajasthan.

OTHERS

Chana Mar futures closed lower for the second consecutive day amid technical

selling initiated by the market participants tracking weak spot prices amid

higher acreage in the country. As per government sowing data, area under the

chana crop across the country was up 7.9% on year at 105.6 lakh ha as on last

week. MCX Jan Cotton closed higher on Thursday supported by good demand

from the mills and traders. However, the prices have corrected by more than

Rs. 200 during the end of the session.


9

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

GOLD

COMEX Gold price shows calm negative trading to test the EMA50 again, and as long as the price is below 1350,our

bullish overview will remain valid for the upcoming period, reminding you that our next main target is represented by

testing the previously recorded top at 1357.53.The Gold MCX is in perfect up trend .Currently Gold is in strong up trend

and the trend is supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Cautious point is buying at

higher levels seems decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal.Support for the Gold is 29400. Immediate resistance

for Gold is 29950.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION SELL

ENTRY PRICE BELOW 29450

TARGET 29350

STOP LOSS 29525

CRUDE OIL

From the last couple of trading weeks Crude oil trading in range and recently market is facing important resistance level

at 4100.Currently Crude oil is showing some down move and trend is strong momentum is also showing strength and

supported with good volume The open interest is not increasing with trend . Caution note buying at higher levels seems

decreasing. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term we can see some selling pressure in oil. Near term support

level at 4000 while market can face the resistance of 4080

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION SELL

ENTRY PRICE BELOW 4000

TARGET 3910

STOP LOSS 4070


10

Calthe Week (NCDE X)

RMSEED

The castor seed is in long- term bull phase cautious point is buying at higher levels seems decreasing. The Castor seed is

now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing buy signal for long term Castor seed is in hold long position.

Immediate support for Castor seed new is 3880.Resistance for the Castor seed is 4170.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION

Buy

ENTRY PRICE ABOVE 4170

TARGET 4270

STOP LOSS 4095

SOYREFINED

Soy bean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on reports of improved oil mills demand and slowing arrivals.

Higher incentives for oil meal export, improved estimates for meal exports also supporting soy bean prices. NCDEX Feb

Soy bean closed higher for third consecutive day on Thursday supported by good physical demand and lower supplies.

Futures Prices have touched 16 months high while spot prices have jumped more than 10% in last one month. Soy bean

arrivals during first 15 days in January were down 41% to 2.18 lakh tonnes on year as per Market data. Moreover,

reports on lower inventories compared to last year also support prices.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION

Sell

ENTRY PRICE

Below 3255

TARGET

3150

STOP LOSS

3334


11

Calls of e Week (FOREX)

EURINR

Last week EURINR Jan Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 79.0000, but till the end of week,

some of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 78.3850 with the weekly gain of 1.40% on weekly basis. It’s still

consolidating above the 50Days & 200Days SMA with the positive RSI and for this week we can expect further upside

movement in it above the level of 78.2875 till the level of 78.8825. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL

of 779475

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

ABOVE 78.2875

TARGET 78.8825

STOP LOSS

77. 9475

GBPINR

Last week GBPINR Jan futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a

high of 88.9075 during the week and closed 88.8175 with the overall gain of 2.83% gain on weekly basis. Technically for

this week, we can further expect profit booking in it from the higher levels and below the level of 88.5850, it can test the

level of 88.0125 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 88.9125.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

Particular

Details

ACTION

SELL

ENTRY PRICE

BELOW 88.5850

TARGET

88.0125

STOP LOSS

88.9125


12

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13

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port herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be

directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.

रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनसुंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड द्वाया ननमवुत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩनूत ा (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफधंधत नहीं होगा। DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST: टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial

interest;

(अ) हाई ब्रो भारे्कट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसरे्क सहमोगी मा उनरे्क कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम रं्कऩनी भें र्कोई ववत्तीम रुचि नह ं है औय न ह इस तयह र्की ववत्तीम हहत र्की प्ररृ्कनत है| (b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of

the subject company,

(फ) हाई ब्रो भारे्कट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसरे्क सहमोगी मा उनरे्क कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम रं्कऩनी र्की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एर्क प्रनतशत मा उसस ेअचधर्क रे्क वास्तववर्क / पामदेभंद स्वालभत्व नह ं हैं | (c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at

the time of public appearance;

(स) हाई ब्रो भारे्कट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसरे्क सहमोचगमों र्को अनुसंधान रयऩोटट रे्क प्रर्काशन रे्क सभम मा सावटजननर्क रूऩ से उऩस्स्थत होन ेरे्क सभम र्कोई अन्म बौनतर्क संघषट नह ं है| DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION:

ऺनतऩूनत ा के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण:

High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any

company in the analyst's area of coverage.

Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.

हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनसुंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है। ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनूत ा : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनसुंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE:

सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण :

(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;

(अ) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनसुंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कंऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है | (b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटट रे्क ववतयण र्की नतचथ से ऩूवट फायह भह नों रे्क दौयान ववषम रं्कऩनी अफ मा र्कबी बी ग्राहर्क नह ं यह है।

(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;

(स) हाई ब्रो भारे्कट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसरे्क सहमोगीमों न े ववषम रं्कऩनी रे्क अचधर्काय , ननदेशर्क मा र्कभटिाय रे्क रूऩ भें र्कबी बी र्काभ

नह ं कर्कमा है

(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.

(द) हाई ब्रो भारे्कट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड ववषम रं्कऩनी रे्क लरए र्कबी बी ववऩणन (भारे्कट भेकरं्कग) गनतववचध भें शालभर नह ं यहा है ।

commodity research report 22 january 2018 ways2capital

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