climate update

8/6/2019 Climate Update

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Climate Change Update

The facts, only the facts,

Then the opinions and solutions.


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Climate Change Update A warming Earth

Is human activity responsible? What are the potential consequences?

What should we do about it?


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A warming Earth


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Warmest years on record

#1 1998

#2 2005#3 2002

#4 2003#5 2004

#6 2001

#7 1997#8 1995

#9 1990#10 1999

near tie


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Warming 1955-2005

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/


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strong evidence exists to show

that the warming of the Earthssurface is undoubtedly real, andthat surface temperatures in the

past two decades have risen at arate substantially greater than

average for the past 100 years.National Research Council Press Release

January 12, 2000


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Is human activity responsible?


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based on Mann, Bradley & Hughes,Nature 392, 779-787 (1998)


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Main greenhouse gases water vapor

carbon dioxide

methane

nitrous oxide

ozone CFCs


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Increase in concentrations

compared to 1750

Carbon dioxide: +35%

Methane: +155% Ozone: +36%

Nitrous oxide: +18%


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Natural sources, sinks not

completely understood Nature, 12 Jan 2006: green plants emit

methane

Could be 10-30% of global methaneemissions


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Ice core records November 2005:

Antarctic cores

show levels ofcarbon dioxideand methane

are highest inpast 650,000years


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There is new and strongerevidence that most of the

warming observed over the last50 years is attributable to humanactivities.

IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001


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The IPCCs conclusion that

most of the observed warmingof the last 50 years is likely tohave been due to the increase in

greenhouse gas concentrationsaccurately reflects the currentthinking of the scientificcommunity on this issue.

National Research Council report, July 2001


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J. Hansen et al., Science 308, 1431 -1435 (2005)


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Published by AAAS

J. Hansen et al., Science 308, 1431 -1435 (2005)

Fig. 2. Ocean heat content change between 1993 and 2003 in the top 750 m of world ocean


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There is now strong evidence

that significant global warmingis occurring It is likely thatmost of the warming in recent

decades can be attributed tohuman activities. This warminghas already led to changes in the

Earth's climate.Joint Science Academies Statement, June 2005


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http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/hansen_re-crichton.pdf


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Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, reproduced in Nature 439, p. 375 (2006)


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What are the potentialconsequences?


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Assessments that examine onlythe next 100 years may wellunderestimate the magnitude ofthe impacts.

National Research Council report, July 2001


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What should we do?


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The scientific understanding of

climate change is nowsufficiently clear to justifynations taking prompt action.

JointNational Science Academies Statement, June 2005


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Adapt or mitigate? Adaptation: adjust to consequences of

climate change

Mitigation: decrease greenhouseemissions to minimize future warming


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Adaptation Shift development from vulnerableareas

Build/strengthen seawalls, dikes,levees

Adjust water resource management

Switch to different crops

Increase spending on tropical diseases

Aid developing nations


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Mitigation Work towards energy efficiency

Change the energy sources

Use less energy; avoid waste

Reduce the human population

Provide world wide birth controlthrough international cooperation


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Mitigation Improve energy efficiency

Shift energy sources

Sequester carbon

Reforestation

Reduce methane

Develop green technologies

Transfer technology to developing nations

Prevent population growth


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K

yoto Protocol


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reality must take precedenceover public relations, for nature

cannot be fooled.

Richard FeynmanChallenger Commission Report, 1986

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