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NOAA Climate Program Update

Chet KoblinskyNOAA Climate Program DirectorFebruary 2005

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NOAA Strategy

Vision

A vastly enhanced scientific understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem available to society and national leadership as a basis for critical social and economic policy decisions

Mission

To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social and environmental needs.

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NOAA Goals

Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management

Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond

Serve society’s needs for weather and water information

Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation

Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission

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FY05 Enacted Budget by Goal

Weather & Water 21%Climate 6%

Ecosystems 35%

Commerce &Transportation 4%

Mission Support 34%

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Climate ForcingClimate &

EcosystemsObservations &

AnalysisRegional

Decision SupportPredictions &Projections

Pro

gra

mPro

gra

mss

Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond

OUTCOMES

1. A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions

2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions

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NOAA Climate Program Overarching Organization (NEW)

NOAA Management

NOAA Planning

NOAA Research

Climate Program Board

NOAA Climate Program Office

External Advisory

PanelProvides scientific and programmatic advice

Develops program

All NOAA represented

NEWAdministers goal and programs

Includes Climate OfficeOffice of Global ProgramsClimate Observations and Services ProgramOffice of Climate Observations and ARGOArctic Research Office

ScienceAdvisor

yBoard

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NOAA’s Climate ActivitiesFY05 Enacted Budget

Climate Change Science Program 31%Climate and Global Change, Climate Obs and Services,CCRI

Mission Support 36%Satellites, Platforms, Facilities

Operations 18%Data Centers, Predictions, Delivery

Research Laboratories 15%

NOAA Planning - Execution Cycle

Planning

NOAA Strategic Plan

Programming

Goal and Goal-Wide Program Plans

Execution

Individual Performance Plans

Budgeting

Program AOPsLO & SO AOPs

Budget Operating Plan

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GEOSS Global Earth Observing System of Systems

A distributed system of systems

Improves coordination of strategies and observation systems

Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks

Identifies gaps in our global capacity

Facilitates exchange of data and information

Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues

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Observations and Analysis Integrated Ocean Observation System: Global

The global ocean

component of the observing

system is primarily

focused on climate.

FY06 PriorityIndian Ocean

FY07 PriorityArctic

Expansion

ParticipantsPMELAOML

External

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Observations and Analysis Integrated Surface Observing Systems

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are needed to see this picture.

An integrated surface observing system is being developed for the

US.

Contributing SystemsClimate Reference Network

COOPerative Observing Network(Weather Reference Network)

Marine BuoysASOS

SNOTEL (USDA)RAWS (BLM)

Regional and State Mesonets

Major workshop last year developed a strategy. Reports are

available.

ParticipantsNCDCNWS

External

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Observations and Analysis Upper Air Observing Systems

NOAA oversees a number of upper atmospheric observing systems for climate. In order to plan for an integrated upper air observing system, we are conducting a series of workshops, joint with GCOS:

• Objectives and Requirements Boulder Feb 8-11, 2005

• Measurement Approaches Seattle Late May, 2005

• Implementation Planning Washington Fall, 2005

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Observations and AnalysisOngoing Analysis

In partnership with NSF and NASA, NOAA is developing a

program on “Ongoing Analysis” for the global atmosphere,

oceans, and land, as well as focused regional analyses for select regions, such as North

America and the Arctic.

Major workshops for atmosphere, ocean and Arctic

were completed in FY04.

FY06 Priority: AtmosphereFY07 Priority: Arctic

ParticipantsNWS/NCEP

Climate Diagnostics CenterArctic Office

Office of Climate ObservationsExternal

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Climate Forcing

• Carbon (and other Greenhouse Gases)• Atmosphere and Ocean• Monitoring, Analysis, Model improvements• FY06 Priority: North American Carbon Program• Participants: CMDL, PMEL, AOML, GFDL, External

• Atmospheric Composition • Aerosols and Ozone• Field programs, Laboratory studies, Model improvements• FY06 Priority: Indirect Effect, Houston area field program• Participants: Aeronomy Lab, CMDL, GFDL, External

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Climate ForcingCarbon Cycle Atmospheric Observing System

The vertical profiles of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane are being measured at 17 aircraft and 3 tall tower sites as part of the North American Carbon Program. When the network is complete (36 total sites by FY2008), regional information on carbon dioxide sources and uptake in North America will be available.

500 meter Carbon Gas SamplingTower

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Climate Forcing NEAQS - ITCT 2004

New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation

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Predictions and Projections

• Predictions• Weekly to Seasonal Operational Forecasts• New Coupled Climate Forecast System Model at NCEP• FY06 Priority: Climate Test Bed for Model Improvements• North American Monsoon Experiment completed• Participants: NWS/NCEP, CDC, External (e.g., IRI)

• Projections• Scenarios and Assessments of Climate Change• New Coupled Climate Model• FY06+ Priority: CCSP “If…then…scenarios” • Participants: GFDL, External

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Predictions and Projections IPCC Projections

Observed

Model

NOAA/GFDL has built a new coupled climate model for projections. This model has been used to produce projections for IPCC AR4.

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Climate and Ecosystems

North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program

What: Understanding and Forecasting ecosystem response to changing Climate in the North Pacific

Why: Alaska supplies about one half of seafood caught in US

ParticipantsNOAA FisheriesNOAA Research

Catc

h

(million

s)

Impact of Quasi-Decadal Climate Patterns on

Salmon

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Developing a Climate Service

• Regional Decision Support

• Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA)

• Regional Climate Centers (External partnership through NCDC)

• FY05-06 Priority: Climate Impacts in Coastal Region Extension Agents

• FY07 Priority: Delivery of Products and Services through Local Forecast Offices (NWS)

• Sectoral Decision Support

• Refocusing of Climate and Societal Interaction group in OGP

• Health, Agriculture, Energy, Urban, Coastal, Sustainability, Human Dimensions

Regional Decision Support

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The RISAs provide a direct connection between research and end users. They have a strong focus on drought issues, how current climate products are used and interpreted, and what are the needs for next generation regional climate information products.

FY06 - ALASKA

Regional Decision SupportRegional Integrated Science and Assessments

Pacific

Northwest

South EastConsortium

Western Water Assessment

CLIMAS

California

Applications

Project

New England

Carolinas

Hawaiian and PacificIslands

*

*

RISA research is:

• User focused• Interdisciplinary• Place-based• Considers multiple stressors• Focuses on key regional issues• Provides and assesses uses ofclimate information and products for regional decision support

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Arctic Challenges

• What are today’s climate challenges in the Arctic? • What is role of NOAA’s climate program in the Arctic?• What are important Arctic climate products and services for NOAA to develop and deliver?• What is the vision for an end-to-end NOAA Arctic climate service?

• Who are key partners?• What are the requirement drivers?• What are the requirements?• Who are the key stakeholders?• What are the phenomena?

• How can NOAA capitalize on the IPY to develop these services?

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NOAA Climate Program BACKUP

OUT- COMES

Ecosystems

Climate

Weather & Water

Commerce & Trans

Mis

sio

n G

oal

Tea

ms

NOAA Strategic

Plan

Const

ituen

ts

Stakeholders

Empl

oyee

sPar

tner

s

Users

NOAA Goal-Wide Programs, Staff Offices, & Councils

NOAA Line Offices

Players in the Cycle