climate action tracker equity update - cop 23

Climate Action Tracker Equity

Methodology Update 2017

Climate equity and the

Paris Agreement

Paola Yanguas (Climate Analytics)

6 November 2017

www.climateactiontracker.org

Why the update?


• The need to evaluate adequacy of targets and policies against 1.5°C to

reflect the higher ambition of the Paris Agreement long-term temperature

target.

• The need to include literature published in the last few years, which was

excluded from our equity ranges

• The need to reflect better recent changes in countries' socioeconomic and

emissions trends.

• The need to differentiate between levels of inaction, as so many countries

fell into the “Inadequate” under our previous rating system.

2017 rating system update


Differentiating between levels of inaction


glo

bal ag

gre

gati

on

of

fair

sh

are

ran

ges

Warming would reach 3°C

Warming likely limited to 2°C

Warming likely limited to

1.5°C

Warming likely be lower than

1.5°C

Warming would reach 4°C

Summary results


BHUTAN

5 Countries

Story 1 – Country Performance


There are only 2 countries rated as

Paris Agreement compatible



Methodology_presentation_Final_Calibri.pptx

Only another 5 countries are

coming close to be

compatible with Paris

Agreement

BHUTAN



Most of the world has targets

that are not compatible the

Paris Agreement



Many countries have targets

outside their Fair Share range

Main changes – Very few countries on track


It is harder to become role model

Main changes - Insufficient


We have renamed the “Medium” category “Insufficient” because countries

rated “medium” would still require others to take considerably more action.

Main changes – Highly Insufficient


Similarly, so many countries fell into the “Inadequate” category that it was

difficult to differentiate between their (insufficient) levels of ambition.

Main changes – Critically Insufficient


We have therefore divided the “Inadequate” category into two: “Highly

insufficient,”, and “Critically insufficient”—reserved for those with the least

amount of ambition

Main changes – Country movements


Downgrade of China. Reflects recent socioeconomic and emissions trends

Upgrade of other countries. Wider equity range for those countries.

Factoring in Current Policies trajectories

Countries with consistent targets and policies


While some countries behave as expected and have no significant

inconsistency between targets and policies

Nationally Determined

Contribution Rating

Current Policies

Rating

For example INDIA in the graphic above is completely yellow indicating it’s NDC target and

Current Policies both fall in the same 2°C Compatible range. With a slightly stronger

target and policies to meet that target, India would be able to meet it’s Paris Agreement

obligations


Countries not meeting targets


If countries were rated based on current action, rating would be different for

many countries


Contribution Rating

Current Policies

Rating

For example AUSTRALIA has Current Policies Projections that are not on track to meet

it’s NDC target. A stronger target and even stronger policies are needed.


Countries overachieving targets


If countries were rated based on current action, rating would be different for

many countries


Contribution Rating

Current Policies

Rating

For example RUSSIA NDC target is less stringent than it’s Current Policies trajectory and

it’s target is unlikely to drive emissions reductions. In this case a much stronger target is

required so help drive policies in the direction of being 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible.

CONCLUSION


• The update now better reflects the higher ambition of the Paris

Agreement long-term temperature target of 1.5°C and better differentiates

the differences in targets and policies that exist between countries.

• Now we are able to assign a temperature outcome to a target, if all other

countries were to follow similar ambition levels.

• The vast majority of countries have NDC targets that are insufficient to

meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. These weak targets must be

strengthened.

– A number of these countries are not on track to meet their current weak

targets and policies need to be significantly strengthened.

EXTRA SLIDES

Inclusion of 1.5°C allowances

11/27/2017www.climateactiontracker.org

20

CONCLUSION


climate action tracker equity update - cop 23

Environment