July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update

July 2017

Jake Crouch Climate scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Laura Edwards South Dakota State Climatologist, South Dakota State University Extension

Dan Collins Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

• June: +0.82°C above 20th century average

– 3rd warmest June on record

– Only June 2015 and 2016 were warmer

– 41st consecutive June and 390th consecutive month warmer than average

• Land: +1.15°C

– 4th warmest June on record

• Ocean: +0.70°C

– 3rd warmest June on record

The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years)

Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles

June 2017

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 3

Jan-Jun 2017: +0.91°C above average,

2nd warmest on record.

Year-to-Date Global Temperatures For 2017 and the other eight warmest years on record

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

Temperature: 70.3°F, +1.9°F, 20th warmest June

Precipitation: 3.01”, +0.08”, near median June

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Precipitation Percentiles June 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

Temperature Percentiles June 2017 Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• Record and near-record heat in the Southwest with

a record-breaking heatwave mid-month

— AZ had record warm daytime temperatures

• The Deep South to Ohio Valley was cooler than

average, especially daytime temperatures

• Below-average precipitation across the Rockies

and Northern to Central Plains.

• As typical, large area of the Southwest received

zero precipitation

• Great Lakes and Southeast were wet. Tropical

Storm Cindy brought heavy rain mid-month

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 5

Temperature: 50.9°F, +3.4°F, 2nd warmest January-June

Precipitation: 17.86”, +2.55”, 6th wettest January-June Precipitation Percentiles June 2017

Period: 1895-2017 (123 years) Temperature Percentiles June 2017

Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• Record and near-record heat in the southern

contiguous US

— FL, GA, NC, and SC record warm

• Only parts of the Northwest were cooler than average

• Northern Plains have been record and near-

record dry for the first half of 2017

• Much of the West and Great Lakes had record

and near-record precipitation

― ID and MI were record wet

• Above-average precipitation across the Central

Plains and Deep South

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 6

10.6% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 5.3 percentage points since late May)

• Improvement: Most of the Southeast, especially Florida and southern Georgia

• Degradation: Northern to Central Plains, parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains

• Outside CONUS: Drought expanded in Hawaii and Alaska

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

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U.S. Drought Monitor

USDA Northern Plains

Climate Hub

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 8

https://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/Drought/AgInDrought.pdf

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 9

South Dakota North Dakota Montana U.S.

Corn 75% in drought 59% in drought N/A 13%

Soybean 75% 57% N/A 12%

Spring Wheat 95% 64% 58% 50%

Hay 88% 91% 46% 15%

Cattle 80% 91% 51% 13%

https://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/Drought/AgInDrought.pdf

Credit: V. Stuart

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

• SD & ND frost damage June 25

• Corn tassel and pollination now

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Based on NASS crop progress data. Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

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Credit: R. Halverson

Credit: R. Halverson

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 11

Plains and Midwest monthly webinars – 3rd Thursday of each month, 1 pm CT

– https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7395763081104006913

– Recordings and PDF files here: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php or http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/webinars.htm

– Hosted by national, regional and state climate partners

Credit: NDSU Extension

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 12 July 2017

• Sea surface temperatures – Above normal SSTs in the central

equatorial Pacific

– Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the mid-latitudes of the Pacific and off of the Atlantic coast

– ENSO neutral conditions are present

• ENSO forecast – ENSO neutral is likely to persist

through winter 2017-2018

– The chances of ENSO neutral is above 50% through the period

– The chances of El Nino development are elevated above 35% through autumn

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 13

August Average Temperature Probability

August Total Precipitation Probability

July 2017

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 14

Aug-Sep-Oct Average Temperature Probability

Aug-Sep-Oct Total Precipitation Probability

July 2017

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 15 July 2017

July 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

For More Information

TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

South Dakota State Climatologist: https://www.sdstate.edu/state-climatologist

NOAA Media Contacts:

• Brady.Phillips@noaa.gov, 202-482-2365 (NOAA Communications/HQ)

16 Monthly Climate Webinar July 2017