noaa climate science & services monthly climate update · pdf filenoaa climate science...

September 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar

NOAA Climate Science & ServicesMonthly Climate Update

September 2017

Jake CrouchClimate scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

John Nielsen-GammonTexas State Climatologist, Texas A&M University

Matthew RosencransMeteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch

September 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar 2

The global temperature record dates to 1880 (138 years)

• August: +0.83°C above20th century average

– 3rd warmest Aug on record

– Aug 2017 was 41st

consecutive Aug and 392nd

consecutive month above 20th century average.

• Land: +1.17°C

– 2nd warmest Aug on record

– Only Aug 2016 was warmer at +1.25°C

• Ocean: +0.71°C

– 4th warmest Aug on record

Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles

August 2017


Jan-Aug 2017: +0.88°C above

average, 2nd warmest on record.


Temperature: 72.0°F, -0.1°F, near-median August

Precipitation: 3.34”, +0.72”, 7th wettest August

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Precipitation Percentiles Aug 2017Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

Temperature Percentiles Aug 2017Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

• First below average month for Lower 48 since Feb 2015. • Record heat in the West and parts of the Southeast. • The Great Plains, Midwest, Northeast and South were

cooler than average, especially daytime temperatures.

• Dry conditions across the Northwest to Northern Rockies, Southwest, and Midwest to Northeast.

• Warm and dry conditions in the West created ideal wildfire conditions with numerous large fires.

• Much of the Great Plains and Gulf Coast were record and near-record wet. Heavy precipitation associated with Hurricane Harvey in Louisiana and Texas.

September 2017 Monthly Climate Webinar5

Temperature: 56.7°F, +2.8°F, 3rd warmest January-August

Precipitation: 24.09”, +3.38”, record wettest January-AugustPrecipitation Percentiles Jan-Aug 2017

Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)Temperature Percentiles Jan-Aug 2017

Period: 1895-2017 (123 years)

1• Record and near-record heat in the southern and

southwestern contiguous US. — FL, GA, NC, and SC record warm.

• Only parts of the Northwest were cooler than average.

• Northern Plains have been record and near-record dry for the first eight months of 2017.

• Much of the West, Great Lakes, Central High Plains, and Gulf Coast had record and near-record precipitation. No state record wet.


15.5% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 3.7 percentage points since early Aug)

• Improvement: Southwest and parts of the Southern and Northern Plains

• Degradation: Northwest, Northern Rockies and Plains, parts of Midwest and New England

• Outside CONUS: Drought improved in western Alaska and southern Puerto Rico


Historic analyses: Applied Weather Associates; US Army Corps of Engineers

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33.28”

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• Sea surface temperatures

– Below normal SSTs in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific

– SSTs decreasing in eastern Pacific

– Away from the equator, above normal SSTs across the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico

– ENSO neutral conditions are present

• ENSO forecast

– ENSO neutral is likely in early autumn. Then La Niña is favored by Northern Hemisphere winter

– The chances of La Niña increase to about 62% in winter 2017-18

Average SST Anomalies

20 Aug 2017 – 16 Sep 2017


October Average Temperature Probability

October TotalPrecipitation Probability


Oct-Nov-Dec Average Temperature Probability

Oct-Nov-Dec Total Precipitation Probability


For More Information

TODAY’S PRESENTATION:

• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov

Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

Texas State Climatologist: https://climatexas.tamu.edu/

NOAA Media Contacts:

• [email protected], 202-407-1298 (NOAA Communications/HQ)

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://drought.gov/

http://www.climate.gov/

https://climatexas.tamu.edu/

mailto:[email protected]

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