climate update from czi
DESCRIPTION
This is a climate update from The Carbon Zero Institute.TRANSCRIPT
Elton Sherwin
Executive Director
Carbon Zero Institute Advocates for Zero,
Catalysts for Change
www.carbonzeroinstitute.org
Climate Update
Image: Roger Braithwaite,
University of Manchester (UK)
CO2 traps the Sun’s heat and warms the planet
Computer Models
If there are no surprises
• Bigger storms
• Rising oceans
• Longer droughts
• More heat waves
• Hotter temperatures – 8-10+ °F warmer in
parts of California*
– Impact animals, plants, skiers, wineries and agriculture
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,” Katharine Hayhoe, Christopher B. Field, Stephen H. Schneider and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS.
Extracted CO2 History from Ice Cores
10,000 Years CO2
From Ice Cores
10,000 years of Civilization
http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty.htm
Birth of James Watt And Start of the Industrial Revolution
CO2 Today CO2 Emissions Are Accelerating
1775
1975
450,000 Years of
Temperature and CO2
20 decades
4 decades
800,000 Years of CO2
Current situation is • Extraordinary • Alarming
9
Ocean is Acidifying
Coral Reefs Are in Serious Trouble
NOAA
Forecasts for 21st Century More Warming Over Land and the Arctic
Models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2
0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 ºC
12
Could See Increases of Over 10 Degrees Fahrenheit in Central Valley*
Source: 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
10+
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CNRA-1000-2009-027/CNRA-1000-2009-027-F.PDF
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,” Katharine Hayhoe, Christopher B. Field, Stephen H. Schneider and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS.
North Pole - 2007
North Pole Ice Volume
2007
2012
If There Are No Surprises
• Bigger storms
• Rising oceans
• Longer droughts
• More heat waves
• Hotter temperatures
World-wide image (on the left) and models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2
Surprise Events
Unpredictable & difficult to model
• South Pole
• Permafrost
• Methane
• Ocean
– Gulf stream
– Fisheries
• Monsoons
• World’s food supply
22
Effect on Ocean Currents
Hard to Predict
Ocean’s Conveyor is Driven by
a Cold Arctic
Image: Argonne
National Laboratory
23
Methane Burps
A Ticking Time Bomb
There are enormous
quantities of naturally
occurring greenhouse
gasses trapped in ice-like
structures in the cold
northern muds and at the
bottom of the seas.
Published on 15 Dec 2004 by Baltimore Sun (Common Dreams)
by John Atcheson
Image courtesy of NASA
24
Picture: MSU.edu
400 Gigatons Of Methane Locked
In The Frozen Arctic Tundra
25
“The climate is nearing
tipping points.
Changes are beginning to
appear and there is a potential
for explosive changes, effects
that would be irreversible”
James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies
The Observer, February 15, 2009,
27
An Area the Size of Germany and
France Combined is Melting
Unprecedented
and
Irreversible
28
Ice Sheets Collapse
Consequences
are Huge
20+ Feet of
Ocean Rise
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
NSF Website and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
29
Ocean Rise Estimates this Century
16 inches
3 feet
11 feet
EPA and National Research
Council Estimates
6 feet
30 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
(blue)
San Jose
San
Francisco
Vallejo
San Rafael
Oakland
31
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Foster City
East Palo Alto Menlo Park
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
Silicon
Valley
32
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Moffett Field
237
all at risk
33
Heat Waves in Los Angeles
Basin Will Be Much More
Frequent*
Image: Dan Steinberg, Associated Press
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California” Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS `
34
It Is Not Just California
35
Many cities at risk
• Miami
• Key West
• Tampa
• New York
• Venice
• Amsterdam
36
In 150 years, students may study
New Orleans like Carthage:
A city that no longer exists
37
World’s Poor
Hard Hit
Move 17
million
people this
century?
The Planet Needs
Carbon Zero
Net zero emissions
Mid century
10,000 years of CO2
Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years from ice cores and measurements at Mauna Loa http://www.skepticalscience.com/are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html
Why Zero?
• Because CO2 persists in the atmosphere and acidifies the ocean for generations
• Because if we don’t get to zero we will create a different planet
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Because Our Grandchildren Could
Inherit a Different World
Why Zero?
World-wide image (on the left) and models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2
0 2 4 6 -6 -4 -2 ºC
The Carbon Zero Institute
An Advocate for Zero
A Catalyst for Change
Net Zero Mid Century
www.CarbonZeroInstitute.org
Appendix
CO2 Since Start of Industrial Revolution
Sea Level Tracks Temperature and CO2
