power system flexibility and electricity storage · 2019-11-06 · deployment and costs of...
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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Power System Flexibility and Electricity Storage
Conférence sur le stockage stationnaire d’électricité, 5 November 2019
Keisuke SADAMORI, Director, Energy Markets and Security, IEA
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Solar PV drives strong rebound in renewable capacity expansion
Renewable capacity growth between 2019 and 2024 by technology
Renewables expand by 50% through 2024, with distributed PV alone growing as much as onshore wind.
The IEA forecast is 14% higher than last year due to improved policies and increasing competitiveness.
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Solar PV
Onshore wind
Hydropower
Offshore wind
Bioenergy
Others
GW
Distributed PV
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
… leading to new challenges for energy security
Higher shares of variable renewables pose new challenges for power systems
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00 00:00 12:00
Powe
r (M
W)
Demand Net load
New operational requirements –Local power demand and net load variability over a 5 days period
Net load = power demand
minus wind and solar output
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
All sources of
flexibility
needed
6
5
2
1
Mobilise existing power system flexibility
4
3
Targeted
investment in
flexibility needed
Flexibility: the cornerstone of tomorrow’s power systems
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2017
Higher shares of variable renewables raise flexibility needs and call for reforms to deliver
investment in power plants, grids & energy storage, and unlock demand-side response
Integration
phase
Wind and solar PV share of generation
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
India
China
United States
India
China
United States
European UnionEuropean Union
Germany
Germany
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Phases of integration with variable renewables share, 2030
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Flexibility in the global power system, 2017
Power plants dominate flexibility options today while pumped hydro, interconnections and demand
response account for 10% of total flexibility
Hydro28%
Pumped hydro 4%Other 1%
Nuclear 3%
Oil 6%
Gas29%
Coal23%
Interconnections5%
Batteries 0.1%
Demand response1%
Power plant flexibility3 400 GW
Other flexibility220 GW
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Deployment and costs of utility-scale battery storage systems in
the New Policies Scenario
Declining costs for battery storage systems underpin utility-scale deployment to reach 220 GW by
2040, most of which is paired with renewables
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2030 2040
GW
Rest of world
Africa
European Union
United States
India
China
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2030 2040
Do
llars
per
kW
h (
20
17
)
Battery pack
Non-battery costs
Installed capacity Capital cost
4-hour
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
How cost-effectiveness are different storage options?
Compressed hydrogen storage becomes the most economic storage option at discharge durations
longer than 20–45 hours.
Levelised costs of storage as a function of discharge duration
10
100
1 000
10 000
0.1 1 10 100 1000
USD/MWh
Discharge duration (h)
Source: The Future of Hydrogen, IEA (2019)
Li-Ion batteries
Pumped Hydro Energy Storage
Compressed Air Energy Storage
Compressed hydrogen
Ammonia
CCGT with CCUS
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Hydrogen is already part of the energy mix
Dedicated hydrogen production is concentrated in very few sectors today,
and virtually all of it is produced using fossil fuels, as a result of favourable economics
0
20
40
60
80
2018
Mt/
yr
Hydrogen production
Other
Refining
Chemicals
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2018
Mt/
yr
CO2
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
2
4
6
8
Natural gas Natural gas
w/CCUS
Coal Renewables
USD
/kg
Hydrogen production costs, 2018
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Renewables hydrogen costs are set to decline
The declining costs of solar PV and wind could make them a low-cost source
for hydrogen production in regions with favourable resource conditions
USD/kgH2
Long-term hydrogen production costs from solar & wind systems
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Expansion of electrification, distributed generation and variable renewables will broaden the need and
range of flexibility options
Growing needs and range of options for flexibility
IEA 2019. All rights reserved.