monthly weather report - pakistan meteorological...

Monthly Weather Report

June 2019

Director General

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Prepared by: National Weather Forecasting Center

Islamabad

Contents

SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................... 1

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 2

FIRST DECADE OF THE MONTH ....................................................................................................... 3

SECOND DECADE OF THE MONTH ................................................................................................... 5

THIRD DECADE OF THE MONTH ...................................................................................................... 7

ACCUMULATIVE RAINFALL ........................................................................................................... 9

RAINFALL DEPARTURE ................................................................................................................ 10

TROPICAL CYCLONE TC 02A (VAYU) ....................................................................................... 11

TEMPERATURE ............................................................................................................................. 13

DROUGHT CONDITION .................................................................................................................. 14

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR JULY ................................................................................................... 15

ACKNOWLEDGMENT .................................................................................................................... 16

REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................. 16

ANNEX I ........................................................................................................................................ 17

List of Figures Figure 1 Synoptic situation 1st to 9th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the geopotential

height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850 hPa, while

arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ...................................................................................................... 3

Figure 2 Rainfall (mm) distribution on 1st to 10th June 2019. ........................................................ 4

Figure 3 Synoptic situation from 11th to 19th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the

geopotential height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850

hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ..................................................................................... 5

Figure 4 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 11th to 20th June 2019. ............................................... 6

Figure 5 Synoptic situation from 21st to 29th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the


hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds. ..................................................................................... 7

Figure 6 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 21st to 30th June 2019. ............................................... 8

Figure 7 Rainfall (mm) distribution during June 2019. ................................................................. 9

Figure 8 Rainfall departure in June 2019 ..................................................................................... 10

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) departure in June 2019 ........................................ 10

Figure 10 Track of Tropical Cyclone by Joint Typhoon warning center a) on 12th and b) 17th

June. .............................................................................................................................................. 11

Figure 11 EUMETSAT picture of Tropical Cyclone 02A (VAYU) on 14th June at 0600z. ....... 11

Figure 12 Temperature comparison between normal and June 2019 maximum temperatures. .. 13

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly in June w.r.t 1981-2010 .................................................. 13

Figure 14 Drought outlook during the month of June. ................................................................ 14

List of Tables Table 1 Forecast verification contingency table .......................................................................... 12

Table 2 Percentage accuracy of each spell ................................................................................... 12

1

SUMMARY

1. In June 2019 area weighted rainfall of the country remained close to normal at -1 %.

2. On regional basis rainfall was above normal in Gilgit Baltistan 292%, Balochistan +3%,

and below normal in Sindh -79%, Punjab -14%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa -12%, and Azad

Jammu and Kashmir -2%.

3. Highest accumulated precipitation during the whole month was recorded in Astore, Gilgit

Baltistan, 112 mm.

4. Highest amount of rainfall during 24 hours was recoded in Astore, Gilgit Baltistan 65.2

mm.

5. Highest maximum temperature of 51.0℃ was recorded in Jacobabad on 1st and 2nd June.

2

INTRODUCTION

June is one of the hottest months in the country. During this month mean minimum temperature

varies from 11.0℃ in Astore to 30.7℃ in Sibbi. While mean maximum temperature ranges from

24.2℃ in Astore to 45.4℃ in Sibbi, Balochistan. Normal area weighted rainfall in June for

Pakistan is 18.6 mm. For Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39.6 mm, Punjab 29.4 mm, Balochistan 9.0 mm,

Sindh 10.2 mm, Azad Jammu and Kashmir it is 25.9 mm and Gilgit Baltistan 13.6 mm. In June

2019 area weighted rainfall of Pakistan remained close to normal -1%. 1. On regional basis

rainfall was above normal in Gilgit Baltistan 292%, Balochistan +3%, and below normal in Sindh

-79%, Punjab -14%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa -12%, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir -2%. In this

month highest maximum temperature of 51.0℃ was recorded in Jacobabad on 1st and 2nd June.

Highest accumulated precipitation during the whole month was recorded in Astore, Gilgit

Baltistan, 112 mm. While amount of rainfall during 24 hours was recoded in Astore, Gilgit

Baltistan 65.2 mm. For a better understanding of the weather situation during the month, it is

divided into three decades.

3

FIRST DECADE OF THE MONTH

Synoptic situation during 01st to 9th June obtained by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (Kalnay

1996) is shown in figure 1. During 3rd to 6th June a closed circulation was present at 850 hPa.

While a shallow westerly wave also persisted during 3rd to 7th June.

Figure 1 Synoptic situation 1st to 9th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the geopotential

height pattern at 500 hPa, solid line represents the geopotential height pattern at 850 hPa, while

arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

4

Rainfall distribution during the first decade is shown in figure 2. During this time period rainfall

occurred in upper areas of the country and in isolated parts of southeastern Sindh. Most of the

southern parts of the country remained dry.

Figure 2 Rainfall (mm) distribution on 1st to 10th June 2019.

5

SECOND DECADE OF THE MONTH

Synoptic situation during the second decade of the month is shown in figure 3. Most parts of the

country remained predominantly in the grip of a westerly wave. While a cyclonic storm can be

seen brewing in the Arabian Sea. This cyclonic storm(02A) was named as “VAYU”. It latter

tracked northwards and fizzled out near the Indian Gujrat coast.

Figure 3 Synoptic situation from 11th to 19th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the


hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

6

Spatial distribution of rainfall from 11th to 20th June 2019 is shown in figure 4. It shows that most

of central and northern parts of the country along with southeastern parts of of the country received

rainfall.

Figure 4 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 11th to 20th June 2019.

7

THIRD DECADE OF THE MONTH

The synoptic situation during the last decade is shown in figure 5. A westerly wave gripped most

parts of the country during the last decade. While a closed circulation was also present at lower

level from 27th to 30th June.

Figure 5 Synoptic situation from 21st to 29th June 2019. Shaded portion represents the


hPa, while arrows indicate 850 hPa winds.

8

Figure 6 represents the spatial distribution of rainfall during the time period. In this most parts of

the country except for western parts of Balochistan and some parts of upper Sindh remained dry.

A center of maximum rainfall is present over Islamabad.

Figure 6 Rainfall (mm) distribution during 21st to 30th June 2019.

9

ACCUMULATIVE RAINFALL

In June most parts of the country except for southwestern parts of Balochistan received rainfall.

Figure 7 represents the spatial distribution of rainfall during the month of June. The center of

maximum rainfall is around Islamabad. Details of rainfall are appended in annexure I.

Figure 7 Rainfall (mm) distribution during June 2019.

10

RAINFALL DEPARTURE

During this month area weighted rainfall of the country remained close to normal -1%. On regional

basis rainfall was above normal in Gilgit Baltistan 292%, Balochistan +3%, and below normal in

Sindh -79%, Punjab -14%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa -12%, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir -2%.

(CDPC 2019) represented in figure 8. Figure 9 shows the spatial distribution of rainfall departure

in the month of June with respect to the base period of 1961-2010. It shows above normal rainfall

in parts of Gilgit Baltistan while rainfall remained deficient in most northeastern parts of Punjab

and Kashmir.

Figure 8 Rainfall departure in June 2019

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) departure in June 2019

11

TROPICAL CYCLONE TC 02A (VAYU)

A tropical cyclone 02A named as VAYU, (a Sanskrit word meaning wind) was formed over

Arabian Sea in June. Its genesis started, on 9th June at 2300 UTC as a cyclonic circulation near

10.5°N, 72.2°E off the Indian coast of Cochin, India. It intensified into a cyclonic storm on 10th of

June 2019. In the initial stages it was forecasted to track north-northeast wards towards the Indian

Gujrat coast and was expected to landfall there. However, in the latter stages it started drifting

northwestwards and then took a sharp turn towards north-northeast wards on 14th June. The system

latter weakened significantly and dissipated on sea near the Indian Gujrat cost by 17th June. Track

as depicted by Joint Typhoon Warning Center, USA on 12th and 17th June are shown in figure 10.

While figure 11 shows EUMETSAT picture of Tropical Cyclone 02A (VAYU) on 14th June at

0600z

Figure 10 Track of Tropical Cyclone by Joint Typhoon warning center a) on 12th and b) 17th June.

Figure 11 EUMETSAT picture of Tropical Cyclone 02A (VAYU) on 14th June at 0600z.

a) b)

12

FORECAST VALIDATION

An attempt is made to substantiate the accuracy of precipitation forecasts issued in June. This is

done by using the contingency table 1, for each of the three decades. This table is used to find out

the level of agreement between forecast and actual observation. The difference between forecast

and observation is the error. The lower the errors, the greater the accuracy.

Table 1 Forecast verification contingency table

Observed

Yes No Total

Foreca

st

Yes Hits False Alarms Forecast Yes

No Misses Correct Negatives Forecast No

Total Observed Yes Observed No Total

Hits means when the precipitation was forecasted and it occurred. Miss is used when the

precipitation was not forecasted and it occurred. False alarm means when the precipitation was

forecasted and it did not occur. Correct negatives are when the precipitation was not forecasted

and also it did not happen. Accuracy of forecast is calculated by using formula in equation 1. Table

2 describes the accuracy in each of the spells

𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 = 𝐻𝑖𝑡𝑠 + 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑛𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠/𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 (1)

Table 2 Percentage accuracy of each spell

Rainfall spells Percentage accuracy

First Decade 92

Second Decade 79

Third Decade 79

Average 83

13

TEMPERATURE

During the month of June slightly below normal maximum temperatures were recorded in

Pakistan. Maximum temperatures in Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu Kashmir remined below

normal. Sindh recorded slightly above normal maximum temperatures while in Balochistan,

Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa maximum temperatures remained close to normal. Figure 12

represents the comparison of June 2019 and mean maximum temperatures over the country. Spatial

distribution of anomaly of mean temperature is shown in figure 13. It Indicates that northern most

parts of the country remained cooler than normal in the month of June While parts of Sindh and

northeastern Punjab were warmer than normal.

Figure 12 Temperature comparison between normal and June 2019 maximum temperatures.

Figure 13 Mean temperature anomaly in June w.r.t 1981-2010

14

DROUGHT CONDITION

According to the latest drought analysis done by National Drought Monitoring Center of PMD,

Wet conditions prevailed over most of the northern most parts of the country. During the month

of June, rains in the agricultural plains of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab gave relief to the crops.

Some districts in Sindh are under Moderate drought conditions due to no or very less precipitation

and persistent dry conditions over there. Drought analysis results using different indices is

represented in figure 14.

Figure 14 Drought outlook during the month of June.

15

WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR JULY

Global Climate indicators such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

are expected to remain in positive phase during the month. On the basis of prevailing global

atmospheric and ocean conditions, Following are the main features of weather outlook for the July

2019;

• Below normal rainfall is expected in the country during the month.

• Two to three spells of rainfall, embedded with isolated extreme precipitation events, are

expected in the northern half of the country during the period.

• Mean temperature is likely to remain 1-2°C above normal during the month.

• Due to above normal temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution in the flow of

Indus River will be enhanced during the month.

16

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

This work is the combined effort of all the forecasting team. Special thanks to Mr. Farooq Dar,

Ms. Ruqiya Mehmood and Mr. Muhammad Safdar, National Weather Forecasting Center

(NWFC), Islamabad. Mr. Nadeem Faisal, Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC), Karachi. Mr.

Ibrar Qureshi, Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore. Mr. Nassir Yaseen, National Drought

Monitoring Centre (NDMC), Islamabad

REFERENCES

CDPC, Pakistan Meteorological Department. 2019. “Winter Rainfall Update.” 2019.

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/winter2019_rainfall_update.htm.

Kalnay, E. 1996. “The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77

(3): 437–71. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.

17

ANNEX I

Accumulative rainfall (mm) in June 2019, and their deviation from the normal rainfall.

Punjab

Stations Jun-19 Normal Deviation

Murree 83.74 142 -58.3

Lahore, Airport 71.63 54.5 17.1

Noorpur Thal 69.21 ** **

Kot Addu 66.02 ** **

Faisalabad 55.01 43.8 11.2

Multan 53.62 13.1 **

Joharabad 43.51 ** **

Narowal 42.61 ** **

Mangla 40.34 ** **

Kasur 40.03 ** **

Islamabad, Zeropoint 31.03 78.2 -47.2

Layyah 30.21 ** **

T.T. Singh 29.1 ** **

Lahore, City 28.54 55.1 -26.6

Attock 27.04 54.7 **

Bahawalpur, City 26.81 16.2 10.6

Bhakkar 26.5 ** **

D.G.Khan 26.01 ** **

Jhelum 24.54 57 -32.5

Islamabad, New Airport 23.21 **

Jhang 22.82 ** **

Bahawalpur, Airport 19.5 ** **

Khanewal 19.02 ** **

Gujrat 18.7 ** **

Sargodha A/P 17.03 **

Mandibahauddin 16.56 ** **

Khanpur 15.41 6.5 8.9

Okara 15.41 ** **

Sargodha City 15.06 26.8 **

Islamabad, Old Airport 13.83 75.3 **

Shorkot 11.04 40 **

Sialkot Cantt 10.03 64.1 -54.1

Gujranwala 7.62 ** **

18

Bahawalnagar 6.01 39.2 -33.2

Sahiwal 6.01 ** **

Sialkot Airport 4.45 ** **

Chakwal 2.25 ** **

Mianwali 1.05 41.5 **

Hafizabad 0.03 ** **

Rahim Yar Khan 0.01 ** **

Gilgit Baltistan & Azad Kashmir


Astore 112.03 28.8 83.2

Muzaffarabad 106.21 115.9 -9.7

Garidopatta 83.6 112.3 -28.7

Bagrote 67.41 ** **

Skardu 54.48 10.1 44.4

Rawalakot 54.22 ** **

Kotli 49.06 80.9 -31.8

Chilas 34.62 13.9 20.7

Gilgit 33.38 11.8 21.6

Bunji 32.46 13.3 19.2

Gupis 20.7 21.7 **

Hunza 7.5 ** **

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa


Abbottabad 93.82 88.9 4.9

Dir 91 56.4 34.6

Malamjaba 77 ** **

Kohat 70.04 31.7 **

Kalam 55.8 ** **

Balakot 54.31 92.9 -38.6

Pattan 37 ** **

D.I.Khan 33.02 21.7 11.3

Mirkhani 26 ** **

Parachinar 17 52.5 -35.5

Saidu Sharif 15.5 57.5 -42.0

Cherat 15 25.6 -10.6

Peshawar City 14.04 ** **

19

Drosh 13.4 24.5 -11.1

Peshawar A/P 10.04 20.4 **

Risalpur 9.06 21.3 **

Chitral 8.74 12.2 -3.5

Bannu 7 28.8 -21.8

Lower Dir 1 ** **

Sindh


Mithi 14 ** **

Badin 9.02 9.6 -0.6

Sukkur 2 4.5 **

Karachi A/P 1.6 10.8 -9.2

Chhor 0 16.3 -16.3

Hyderabad 0 4.4 -4.4

Jacobabad 0 3.2 -3.2

Larkana 0 8.5 -8.5

Shaheed Benazirabad 0 5 -5.0

Padidan 0 4.2 -4.2

Rohri 0 6.4 -6.4

Mohenjo-Daro 0 2.5 -2.5

Thatta 0 ** **

Dadu 0 ** **

Mirpur Khas 0 ** **

Tando Jam 0 ** **

Balochistan


Barkhan 69.01 47 22.0

Zhob 34 19.8 14.2

Sibbi 18 13 5.0

Lasbela 10.01 10 0.0

Khuzdar 9 13.5 -4.5

Kalat 1 8.9 -7.9

Dalbandin 0 4 -4.0

Gwadar 0 ** **

Jiwani 0 9.9 -9.9

Nokkundi 0 2.6 -2.6

20

Panjgur 0 6.4 -6.4

Pasni 0 8.5 -8.5

Quetta 0 ** **

Quetta Airport 0 2.8 **

Turbat 0 18.5 -18.5

Ormara 0 22.5 -22.5

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