© 2013

High Concentration Photovoltaics (CPV)

Business & Technology Update

How Can III-V Cells Compete With Cheap Crystalline Silicon PV?

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Table of Contents

• List of Acronyms 3

• Why to purchase this report? 4

• What’s changed compared to the last Yole’s HCPV report ? 5

• Content of the report 6

• Executive Summary 7

• Introduction 25

• Solar Electricity Generation 27

• PV, HCPV and CSP technologies 29

• HCPV within the PV technologies 40

• Where are the best locations for HCPV? 56

– High DNI is crucial 57

– Solar resources data suppliers 60

– Other criteria for the location choice 62

– What are the most promising HCPV markets? 68

• How to develop a large-volume HCPV market? 80

• 2013 to 2020 HCPV Market Forecast 101

– PV market forecast 103

– Two scenarios for the future HCPV market growth 105

– Wafer and Epiwafer market forecast 108

• Cost of HCPV 118

– LCOE 120

– HCPV Module Cost Breakdown 124

– HCPV System Cost Breakdown 129

– How to Reduce LCOE for HCPV? 131

• HCPV System Components 138 – Key messages 139

– Overview 143

– Wafer 149

– Epiwafer 159

– Solar Cell 162

– Receiver Module 171

– Concentrating Optics 178

– HCPV Module 191

– Inverter 195

– Tracking System 196

– HCPV System 207

– HCPV Technology Roadmap 210

• HCPV Supply Chain 220 – HCPV suppliers and their positioning 222

– Multijunction cell production capacity 241

– HCPV module production capacity 243

– HCPV business risk evaluation 245

• General Conclusion 247

• Appendix: Presentation of Yole Développement 250

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Why to purchase this report?

• To guide strategic decision in the business related to the technology which is not yet considered as mature – several technological choices are under development to achieve the same function.

• To understand the specificities of the “project-business” associated to Concentrated Photovoltaics and to adapt the technology and project development in order to increase the bankability of installation projects.

• To understand which position within the concentrated PV supply chain and which business approach are associated with the highest probability of success.

• For newcomers to guide their strategic and technology choice and to evaluate their accessible market.

• For existing players to monitor the evolution of the market and the positioning of their customers and competitors.

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Content of the report

• This report from Yole Développement describes and analyses current market and technology consolidation in the PV technology and their consequences on the development of the Concentrated PV (CPV).

• A strong focus on HCPV system components and different technology approaches provides the insight into the HCPV technology challenges and development trends.

• Yole provides answers to the following key questions in order to facilitate technology development and sales strategy:

– In which market segments and locations can HCPV compete with crystalline silicon PV?

– How to increase the bankability of HCPV installation projects?

– What are the current estimations of the LCOE for the electricity produced by High-Concentration PV (HCPV) and what are the potential for its decrease.

– Which HCPV suppliers are the today’s leaders and why?

– Is there a market potential for new players?

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Solar Electricity Generation PV, CPV and CSP technologies

Three competing technologies at a glance

Photovoltaics (PV)

Concentration Photovoltaics (CPV)

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)

PV directly converts sunlight into electrical energy by means of photovoltaic cells (via photovoltaic effect). Most PV installations are based on flat-module crystalline silicon or thin film technologies.

CPV directly converts sunlight into electrical energy by means of photovoltaic cells (via photovoltaic effect), using concentrated solar light. Since concentration greatly reduces the size of the solar cells needed, more expensive, high efficiency solar cells based on silicon or III-V semiconductors can

be used to maximize performance.

CSP technology is based on a concept of concentrated solar radiation used to produce steam or hot air, which can be subsequently used for producing electricity in conventional electric plants using a turbine.

Sou

rce:

So

larM

illen

ium

Direct Normal Irradiation

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Where are the best locations for HCPV? High DNI is crucial but not the single parameter of choice (2)

Annual sum of direct normal irradiation, average 1994-2011 and sites with planned PV and HCPV installations Source: Solargis, PV Insider, Yole

Touwsrivier (Touws River) HCPV project (Soitec Energy)

Population density map of South Africa

Road network in South Africa

Many sites with high DNI density have low population density or poor access by road Example: South Africa

Very high DNI, but low population density and poor road network no PV/HCPV installation here

Temperature map

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2013 to 2020 HCPV Market Forecast Two scenarios for the future HCPV market growth

Yearly HCPV installations 2012 – 2020. Yole’s optimistic and conservative scenarios. Source: Yole Développement

Optimistic CAGR: 57.5%

47.4% Conservative

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2013 to 2020 HCPV Market Forecast Wafer and Epiwafer market forecast

Market share evolution for 6” wafers

Forecast of market share increase for 6” wafers in the HCPV industry. Source: Yole Développement

InP substrate Si substrate

R&D

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2013 to 2020 HCPV Market Forecast Wafer Market Forecast – Market value

The overall market concerning HCPV wafers will reach $70.76 Million in 2020.

2012-2020 wafer market (in M$) Source: Yole Développement

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Cost of HCPV How to reduce LCOE for HCPV?

Example of SOE

The technology potential to decrease the costs of Secondary Optical Element is rather limited. The main factors to decrease the price of SOE are lower glass volume used, simplified design and large

order quantities.

Years 2012 2011 2013

$1

$2

Price per unit

$3

Customer’s target price

1.5-3 $/unit

$1/unit

Large orders Lower glass volume and simple design

Already very low margins

Ways to decrease the price for Secondary Optical Elements Source: Yole Développement

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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HCPV System Components Overview

HCPV system components

Epiwafer

Semiconductor layers grown by epitaxy

III-V cell

The wafer with cells is diced into solar cells

Substrate

(Ge, GaAs)

Receiver module

The cell is wired on a mechanical support

and a heat sink

Receivers are interconnected and integrated into a module including glass, metal frame, concentrating

optics, electrical connections, etc.

The modules are assembled in module arrays, mounted on a Tracking System (Tracker). The DC electricity produced is converted by a DC/AC inverter and supplied to the electric grid.

Epitaxy Front End Packaging

Module Assembly

System Assembly

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HCPV System Components Technology Roadmap

Substrate Epiwafer & Cell Optics Inverter

2011

2012

2013

2014

2020

2015

4’’

Hyb

rid

MO

CV

D-M

BE

de

po

siti

on

sys

tem

s

Imp

rove

d p

rim

ary

op

tics

UV

sta

bili

zati

on

H

igh

er

op

tica

l co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

abo

ve 1

00

0x)

H

igh

er

acce

pta

nce

an

gle

O

pti

cs a

llow

ing

flat

-mo

du

le d

esi

gn

SiC

, GaN

Co

mp

on

en

ts

3J

4J

Ge

GaAs

MOCVD

6’’

InP

Si

MBE

HCPV Technology Roadmap Source: Yole Développement

Use

of

dilu

ted

nit

rid

es

8’’

2016

2017

2018

2019

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HCPV System Components Technology Roadmap

Dilute nitride & MBE helping cell efficiency increase

Comparison of the conventional triple junction cell grown by MOCVD and the Solar Junction’s cell based

on dilute nitride material, grown by MBE.

• Solar Junction, company created in 2007 and headquartered in San José, CA, USA has realized a record-efficiency solar cell using an alternative approach, compared to conventional triple-junction based on Ge substrate:

– GaAs is used as substrate instead of germanium

– MEB (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) is employed to the growth of epitaxial layers

– Ge-based sub-cell is substituted by the layer based on so-called “dilute nitrides” (GaInNAsSb) with the energy bandgap better adapted to the use of solar spectrum by the triple junction structure.

• Despite high costs related to the use of GaAs substrate and the use of MBE instead of MOCVD, more common in industrial environment, the high efficiencies obtained (43.5% in 2011 and 44% in 2012) are rather convincing.

Ge 0.67 eV

InGaAs 1.4 eV

InGaP 1.88 eV

GaInNAsSb 1 eV

InGaAs 1.42 eV

InGaP 1.89 eV

GaAs substrate

44% record cell efficiency by using new materials (“dilute nitrides”) and alternative deposition technology (MBE)

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HCPV Supply Chain Many providers involved in the HCPV industry = “big technology push”

HCPV industry provides an opportunity for many players (non-exhaustive list):

Module receiver Inverter

Equipment

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HCPV Supply Chain Stronger market pull is needed to develop a large-scale market

The “technology push” is not strong enough to develop a 100+ (“sustainable”) annual HCPV market. A stronger market pull is needed. Source: Yole Développement

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Yole Activities

Media business News feed / Magazines /

Webcasts

Reports Market

Research

Consulting services Market research,

Technology & Strategy

www.yole.fr

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Photovoltaic reports from YOLE