status of the led industry 2013 report by yole developpement

Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.© 2013 1

75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, FranceTel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83

Web: http://www.yole.fr

Status of the LED IndustryMarket Analysis, Industry Status, Players and

Main Applications for LEDs

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Table of Content & Objectives

© 2013 3Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.

Table of Content (1/7)

• Objectives of the Report (P9)

• About the Author of the Report (P10)

• Company Index (P11)

• Glossary (P12)

• What we Saw & What we Missed (P13)

• Executive Summary (P15)

• Packaged LED Forecast (P44)

– Introduction to High Brightness LEDs

– Segmentation of High Brightness LEDs

– Overview of LED Applications

– History of LED Industry

– Packaged LED Revenue Forecast by Application

– Packaged LED Volume Forecast by Application

– LED Adoption Rate (2013 vs. 2020)

– Recent Trends

– Packaged LED Price Trends

– LED Supply by Region

– LED Reactors

• Geographic Trends

• Impact on Global Demand

• GaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand

– Conclusion

• Display Applications (P66)

– Introduction

– Small Size Displays: Cell Phones

• History & Trends

• Alternative Technologies: Organic LED (OLED)

– Comparison with LED

– Main Players

– Example of New Devices

– Penetration Rate in Cell Phone

• Packaged LED Revenue from Cell Phones

• Packaged LED Volume from Cell Phones

– Medium Size Displays: Notebooks & Tablets


• Focus on Tablets

• Focus on Netbooks

• Focus on Notebooks

• Penetration Rate of Backlight Technologies

• Alternative Technologies: Organic LED (OLED)

• Packaged LED Revenue from Notebooks and Tablets

• Packaged LED Volume from Notebooks and Tablets

– Large Size Displays: LCD TVs and Monitors


• Market Drivers

• Energy Requirements

• LED Backlighting Supply Chain



• Display Applications (P66)

– Large Size Displays: LCD TVs and Monitors

• Backlight Designs

– Standard Direct Backlight

– Edge Lit Backlight

– Low Cost Direct Backlight

• LED Backlight Color Gamut

• Local Dimming with LED TVs

• 2012 Market Highlights

– Overview

– Geographical Analysis

– Toward Low Cost Direct Backlight Design

– Toward Lower Brightness

– Toward Increased Size of TVs

– Toward Higher Resolution: 4K2K

• Backlight Design Trends

• LED Package and Chip Surface Trends

• Alternative Technologies

– Crystal LED (CLED)

– Organic LED (OLED)

– Quantum Dots

• LED Adoption Trends

• Packaged LED Revenue from LCD TVs and Monitors

• Conclusion

– Other Display Applications

• Personal Navigation Device (PND)

• Portable DVDs

• Digital Cameras and Camcorders

• Portable Multimedia Players (PMP)

• Portable Game Consoles

• Picture Frames

• Portable Devices - The Blurred Frontier

• Packaged LED Revenue from “Other Displays”

• Packaged LED Volume from “Other Displays”

• Sign and Outdoor Display Applications (P149)

– Overview

– Details on Large Outdoor Displays

– Details on Signals / Emergency Lights

– Packaged LED Revenue from Signs and Outdoor Displays

– Packaged LED Volume from Signs and Outdoor Displays

• Projector Applications (P156)

– Overview of Technologies

– Table Top Projectors

– Ultra Portable and Pico Projectors

– Example of Teardowns

– LED Penetration Rate

– Packaged LED Revenue from Projectors

– Packaged LED Volume from Projectors



• Personal Lighting Applications (P170)

– Overview

– Packaged LED Revenue and Volume from Personal Lighting

• Automotive Lighting Applications (P173)

– Introduction

– History of LEDs Integration

– Drivers for LEDs Integration

– Focus on Interior Lighting

– Focus on Exterior Lighting

– Challenges

– Trends

• Interior Lighting

• Exterior Lighting

• Industry

• Potential Evolution of Industry Structure

– Penetration Rate of LEDs

– Alternative Technology: OLED

• Applications

• Drivers

• Challenges

• Penetration Rate

– Packaged LED Revenue from Automotive Lighting

– Packaged LED Volume from Automotive Lighting

– Conclusion

• General Lighting Applications - Lumen Consumption Forecast (P205)

– Introduction

– International Energy Agency (IEA) Model

– Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) Model

– Model Developed in the Report

– Importance of Light Consumption Model

– Conclusion

• General Lighting Applications - Driving Forces, Status and Trends (P213)

– Introduction

• Market Segments & Associated Characteristics

• Overview of Light Source Technologies

• Standard Light Bulb Classification

• 2012 Lighting Use

• 2012 Lamp Market Volume

• Lighting Use vs. Lamp Market Volume

– Supply and Value Chain

• LED Lighting Supply Chain

– Overview

– Focus on LED Module and LED Light Engine

– Associated Players

• LED Lighting Value Chain

– Trends in Profit Distribution

– Traditional Lighting Players Strategy

– LED Players Strategy

• Conclusion



• General Lighting Applications - Driving Forces, Status and Trends (P213)

– Drivers & Challenges

• Benefits & Promises of LEDs

• Drivers for Adoption: Upfront Cost and Total Cost ofOwnership

• The Path to Cost Reduction

• Cost Structure of Lighting Products

• Cost Structure of Packaged LED

– Cost Breakdown of CREE XLamp XB-D

– Cost Breakdown of Lumileds Luxeon S

– Cost Breakdown of Oslon SSL (1mm² Die)

– Analysis

• Cost Reduction Opportunities

– The Cost of Yields

– Key Technologies & Research Areas

• Main Technical Challenges

• Lifetime & Reliability

• Color Rendering & Consistency

– Regulations, Lifecycle and Standards

• Regulations

– Ban / Phase Out of Incandescent Lamps

– CFL and Toxicity

– Potential Impact of Subsidies

• Lifecycle Analysis

• Standards

• Conclusion

– Future Trends

• Smart Lighting

• Low Voltage DC Power

– Alternative Technologies

• Plasma Induction Lighting

• Laser Lighting

• OLED Lighting

– Introduction

– Advantages

– Challenges

– Market Perspective

– Technical Requirements & Adoption Paradigms

– Market Access Roadmap

– Conclusion

– Conclusion

• General Lighting Applications - Design Trends (P326)

– Introduction

– Major Trends and Evolutions

– Chip On Board (COB)

– Middle Power LEDs

– Ac / HV LEDs

– Small Die vs. Large Die

– System Design Choice

– Design Considerations

– Conclusion



• General Lighting Applications - Market Segment Review (P347)

– Residential Lighting

• General Description

• Incumbent Technologies

• Lamp Replacement vs. Dedicated SSL Modules

• Example of LED Lamps

• Cost Structure of LED Lamps

– Cost Breakdown of Philips L-Prize LED Lamp

– Cost Breakdown of TESS T-6C007W LED Lamp

• LED Lamp ASP

– Overview

– The $10 Bulb

– The Path to $1 Bulb

• LED Lamp Design

• LEDs Integration Drivers

• Adoption Trends

• SWOT Analysis

• LED Penetration Rate

• LED Lamp Market Volume

– Commercial Lighting



• Tube Replacement

• Dedicated SSL Modules

• LEDs Integration: Drivers & Stoppers

• Focus on Office Lighting

– Commercial Lighting

• Focus on High End Applications

• Focus on Specialty Applications

• SWOT Analysis



– Industrial Lighting



• Focus on High Bay Lighting

• Focus on Agricultural Applications

• SWOT Analysis



– Outdoor Lighting



• Market Segments

• LEDs Integration Drivers

• Route to Market in Outdoor Lighting Projects

• Conventional Luminaire vs. LED Luminaire

• Adoption Trends

• Financing



• General Lighting Applications - Market Segment Review (P347)

– Outdoor Lighting

• Focus on Road and Street Lighting

– Introduction

– Product Segmentation

– Highway and Road Lighting Applications

– Residential and Amenity Lighting Applications

– Tunnel Lighting Applications

• SWOT Analysis



• General Lighting Applications - Analysis by Region (P428)

– Lamp Market Volume - Split by Region

– Trends per Region

• Annual Sales of Lamps in Europe

• Annual Sales of Lamps in North America

• Annual Sales of Lamps in Asia

• Annual Sales of Lamps in South America

• Annual Sales of Lamps in MEA

– Focus on Leading Countries

• Overview of Leading Countries

• Focus on Japan

• Focus on Taiwan

• Focus on China

• Focus on USA

• General Lighting Applications - Conclusion (P444)

– Drivers for Adoption

– Evolution of Socket Occupancy by Technology

– Packaged LED Volume and Revenue for General LightingApplications

– A Declining Market

• Merger and Acquisition in the LED Industry (P450)

– Introduction

– Details on Significant Deals (2010 to H1-2013)

– Analysis

– Conclusion

• Chinese LED Industry (P460)

– Overview

• Introduction

• Geographical Distribution of Chinese LED Players

• Overcapacity: How it Has Happened?

• Criticality of Intellectual Property

• Analysis

– Domestic Market Highlights

– Trends

• Consolidation

• Focus on 2 Potential Winners (Sanan and ETi)

• Partnership with Taiwanese Companies



• Emerging LED Technologies (P483)

– GaN-on-Si LEDs

• Introduction

• Benefits

• Challenges

• Conditions for Success

• Status

• Scenarios of Evolution

• Potential New Business Models

– GaN-on-GaN LEDs

• Introduction

• Benefits

• Challenges

• Applications

• Status

– Conclusion

• General Conclusion (P504)


Objectives of the Report

• To understand LED applications (small size displays, large size displays, generallighting, automotive lighting…).

• To understand LED markets (status, drivers, challenges…).

• To evaluate market volume (Munits) and market size ($M): 2008 to 2020.

• To understand LED industry (supply and value chain), player dynamics and futureevolution

• To evaluate emerging technologies (GaN-on-GaN LEDs and GaN-on-Si LEDs)

• To evaluate competing technologies (OLEDs…)


Extract


LED Adoption Rate2013 vs. 2020

Lighting

Applications

Display

Applications


LED Supply by Region

2010 to 2011: Entry of Taiwan and China

• China’s improvement in product quality, coupled with gains in the domestic market, fueled the growthfrom XX% market share to XX% in one year.

• Korean companies lost share in the slowing market, even though they were the most aggressive inincreasing capacity during the ramp-up in 2010.

• The Japanese LED business has trended down…. However, Nichia and Toyoda Gosei were the majorbeneficiaries of the boom in tablet computers.

In 2012, Japan, Korea and USA / Europe were still leading the market with respectively XX%, XX% and XX% market shares (in terms of capacity)!!!

2011 to 2012: Regional Supply Stabilization

• China has still continued to take market share toother region however at a lower growth.

• No real modification for USA, Europe and Japan.

• Korea gain market share based on strong growth ofSamsung (+ ~XX% packaged LED revenue comparedto 2011).

• Taiwan loose market share to the profit of Chinaand Korea.


GaN Reactor CapacityGeographic Trends (2/2)

• Large increase in Taiwan and Korea in late 2009 and 2010 driven by LCD display market.

• Phenomenal increase in China in 2010-2012:

– Anticipation of Solid-State Lighting Market.

– Government subsidies to build-up epitaxy capacity in the mainland (estimated total > US$ 1.5 billion).

As of Q3-2013, there were ~ 110 companies with epitaxy capacity… However, many will disappear!!!

Current estimated worldwide capacity (Q4 2013)

=XX million TIE per month

2012-2015: Consolidations…JP: Toyoda Gosei + Showa DenkoTW: Epistar + Huga… + CMO (?)

CN: Initially, XX Epi Fab projects in China (XX companies): XX operating…

Cross Straight: Sanan + Formosa

Remark: Those capacities are estimated based on the number of reactors shipped per region. We believe that a significant fraction of the reactors shipped to China in 2011 and 2012 have actually not been installed. In addition, about 30% of the capacity installed in China stemmed from foreign based (Taiwan, Korea) companies or JV with Chinese entities.


LED ReactorsGaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand

• During the 2010 investment cycle, most LED makers overestimated the demand potential for large LCDdisplays (…). Combined with the vast number of reactors shipped in China following the subsidies bubble,the market is now in a situation of significant overcapacity which will lead to a 12 month digestion periodwith very low volume of orders for MOCVD equipment makers.

Current MOCVD utilization rate is 68% → Excess capacity will be absorbed by middle of 2014.


Packaged LED Price Trends

• Price erosion is strong since 2010 on all types of packages, despite constant improvement in terms ofperformance (lumen per watt). This is likely to continue as new entrants from China increasingly competewith established vendors to capture market share in general lighting applications, and as rooms forinnovation decrease each year.

• In mature applications like cell phones, this strong price decline affects margins and does not generateadditional volume since the applications are essentially saturated.

High-power “1W – single chip”

Middle Power “5630” / “6030”

Low Power Side View (0.4 to 0.8t)

Middle / High Power “7030”


TV Applications - Recent TrendsToward Higher Resolution - 4K2K (1/2)

• 4K2K (also called 4K or 4K UHD) is a digital video format representing a resolutionof 3840 pixels × 2160 lines (8.3 megapixels, aspect ratio 16:9).

– “4K“ refers to the horizontal resolution (which are on the order of 4,000 pixels) and theterm “2K” refers to the vertical resolution (which are on the order of 2,000 lines).

– Today’s full HD TVs represent a resolution of 1920 pixels x 1080 lines (nearly megapixels).

• In the 3 past years, developments toward this technology have strongly increasedand accelerate time to market. In 2012, Toshiba, LG and Sony have led the way tocommercialize this technology with products such as the Toshiba’s 55ZL2, the LG's84-inch 84LM960V and the Sony's 84-inch 84X9005. And, in 2013, it seems thatmore products will come from Samsung, Panasonic (…).

– In 4K2K TVs adoption, LCD panel suppliers will play a key role as provider of innovativecost-effective technology solutions. Specifically, they will have to focus on leveragingnew technologies: high-transmittance cell design, high-efficiency backlight units (…). Inthis field, Innolux Corporation seems to be the most aggressive player with thedevelopment of a full line-up of panels in the 39" to 85" range.

• At the moment, such products are high-end models with very high ASP.

– For example, cost of the LG's 84-inch 84LM960V and the Sony's 84” 84X9005 are ~$20,000. In summer 2013, Sony should launch 55” model with ASP starting at ~ $5,000.

• Also, as of today, there is no 4K native content available.

In recent years, TV manufacturers have promoted several technologies to excite consumer interest: 3D TV, Smart TV, OLED TV… In 2013, it seems that it is 4K2K!

Sony's 84-inch 84X9005

Source: Sony

Toshiba’s 55ZL2

Source: Toshiba


LED Package and Chip Surface Trends in TV Applications

• Due to LED performance and backlight design improvements, both the average number of packages andthe total chip surface will keep decreasing.

• However this trend will slow down due to:

– Average display size initially increasing until reaching limit related to the typical size of a living room.

– LED efficiency and brightness reaching a plateau.

– Light guide technology reaching its limit in its ability to evenly spread the light of a decreasing number of LED whileincreasing brightness without hot spots.


TV Applications - Alternative TechnologiesQuantum Dots - Overview (1/2)

• Quantum dots are small semiconductor particles that confine theelectron-hole pair in all spatial dimensions.

Dimension

• 3nm to 12nm diameter. Each dot contains less than 35 pairs ofatoms leading to 100 - 1,000 electrons.

Benefits

• Composition and size can be tuned to absorb and / or emitspecific wavelengths (e.g.: CdSe QD emission can be tunedbetween 500nm and 650nm).

• Narrowband emission improves color saturation and limits re-absorption. Better control of absorption / emission spectra allowsreduction of re-absorption and provides higher system efficiency.

• Reduced light scattering (dimension << wavelength).

Challenges

• Manufacturability (control size, stability, large batches → Costremains high).

• Thermal quenching and non reversible degradation at hightemperature (100 - 130°C).

• Most compositions contain Cadmium → Need development ofCadmium-Free Quantum Dots (CFQD).

Structure and functioning of Quantum Dots

Source: 3M

QD-based display

Source: Sony

Absorption (in black) and emission of QD phosphor:

Absence of re-absorption compared to YAG:Ce

Source: NN Crystal


Automotive Lighting - Exterior LightingOverview

• Main drivers:

– Long Lifetime;

– High efficiency / Low energy consumption;

– Fast response;

– Design flexibility (color saturation, size, weight);

– Regulation.

• While penetration rate of LEDs in CHMSL (> XX% - GaAs based LEDs) and in RCL (> XX% - GaAs based LEDs)is ramping up…

– Adoption for RCL and CHMSL will continue to grow due to decrease of LED cost and increase of performance.

• … The technology is still not widely implemented in DRL (~XX% - Sapphire based LEDs) and head lamps (<XX% - Sapphire based LEDs) due to associated cost and / or insufficient performance (compared totraditional technologies).

– Adoption for DRL is still low, but should increase rapidly after some regions like Europe have mandated since 2012that all new small vehicles and light trucks to use DRL in daytime.

– Adoption for head lamps will be limited in the short term due to cost, design, thermal management (…) challengescompared to HID Xenon.

• Today, design and style are the main driver for the integration of LEDs.

While adoption of LEDs for CHMSL and RCL is in progress, current LEDs cost and performance do not match with automakers specifications for DRL and head lamps….


Automotive Lighting - TrendsExterior Lighting

• High Beam Assistant (HBA) is part of what is calledAdvanced Front lighting System (AFS). And several otherAFS features are also under development such as targetlighting (spot light) which give warning in the driver’simmediate line of vision (however it can cause glare topedestrians).

• Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), Full AdaptiveFront Lighting System (FAFLS) and several other featuresare also under development.

• At long term, some manufacturers envision connected carsbased on intelligent lighting systems that couldcommunicate through light signal: Light Fidelity (LiFi)technology.

Spotlight function

Full Adaptive Front Lighting System (FAFLS)

LiFi

description


Packaged LED Volume from Automotive Lighting


Executive SummaryGeneral Lighting - Market Segments

Sector /

SegmentExample Main Drivers / Characteristics

ResidentialTask lamps, mood

lighting, coves (…)

• Upfront cost

• Light quality

• Environment

• Short duty cycle (typ.: 3 hours)

Commercial

Display cases, stores,

malls, hotels,

complexes, offices (…)

• Total Cost of Ownership

• Light quality

• Environment

• Long duty cycles (typ.: 11 hours)

Architectural1Bridges, facades,

monuments (…)

• Aesthetic


• Environment


IndustrialManufacturing sites,

fabs (…)


• Light quality

• Environment


Outdoor

Stationary

Street lights, tunnels,

garages (…)


• Environment


A wide variety of technical requirements:

Application Total Light Output (Lumen)

Task lamp < 250

Ambiance lighting 250 - 1,000

Outdoor lighting 2,000 - 25,000

Industrial lighting Up to 50,000

2 different LED adoption paradigms:

• LED bulb replacements

(Replacement / Retrofit)

vs.

• Dedicated LED solutions

(New Installations)

1: Architectural lighting will be integrated to commercial lighting hereon.

A highly fragmented application market with different drivers for adoption:




LED Lighting Value ChainTrends in Profit Distribution - Overview

Based on the model “LED for Display”, standardization should also occur for LEDs used in General Lighting applications inducing manufacturing commoditization and value transfer along the supply

chain.Material /

SubstrateDie / Chip

Packaged

LEDModule

Lamp /

Light

Engine

System /

SolutionLuminaire

• New Asian players (China and Taiwan) have entered the business,

especially for low- and middle-end applications

• Despite commoditization, profit can stay high for high-end applications

• Adding functionality

should increase margins • Add functionality

• New designing of fixtures

and improvement of system

size should increase

margin

• Commoditization of chip manufacturing

• Professionalization of the epitaxy process

has started

1

Co

mm

od

itiz

ati

on

/

Sta

nd

ard

iza

tio

n

Pro

fit

Dis

trib

uti

on

& V

alu

e T

ran

sfe

r

2

Value go upstream on the value chain

→ To LED module and LED-based lighting products levels

XX% XX%XX%XX% XX% XX%Today

(As of Q3-2013)

In the Future↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑

↓ = Decrease ↑ = Increase


LED Lighting Value ChainTraditional Lighting Players Strategy - Osram

• Value chain positioning:

• Regional positioning:

– North America → Acquisition of Motorola Lighting.

– EMEA → Acquisition of SVET.

– Asia / Pacific → Acquisition of Felco & Joint venture with Toshiba Lighting & Joint venture with SunnyWorld.

Since 2000, Osram has acquired 7 companies with the objective to enhance its position on the value chain and in specific regions.

SSL Sources and Modules(Die / Package LED / Module)

Electronics and Controls(Lamp / Light Engine)

Solutions and Services(Luminaire / System / Solution)

2007

• SunnyWorld

2004

• Felco

• SVET

2001

• Osram OS (SSL)

2011

• Siteco Lighting

2011

• Encelium Technologies

• Siteco Lighting

2009

• Traxon Technologies

2000

• Motorola Lighting

• Toshiba Lighting (JV)


Executive SummaryGeneral Lighting - Drivers for Adoption - Upfront Cost

Currently, upfront cost of LED-based lighting is still too high to fully compete with incumbent technologies.

→ Real need to reduce the $/lumen!

1. Depending on geographical region and availability of subsidies/rebates- Price listed is worldwide average

Incandescent

< $1

Fluorescent

~ $3-$5

LED

~ $10 - $501

Comparison of Average Selling Price of different lamp Technologies

All sources are ~ 800 lumens, warm White and tier-1 brand only


The Path to Cost Reduction

Consensus → Need for a cost reduction by a factor x6

Manufacturing Efficiency

• Higher equipment throughput and yields

• Economy of scale

LED Performance

• Higher efficiency (lumen/W)

• More light per chip (driving current)

COST =$

LUMEN

x3

x2


Main Technical Challenges

And for LED lighting product manufacturers, new testing processes are mandatories during design, development, industrialization and commercialization phases.

Source: Piseo


LED Lamp Design

Performance is basic… Design could be a strong competition point.


Focus on Road and Street LightingApplication - Highway and Road Lighting

• LED lighting adoption in functional Road Lighting was initially hampered bytechnology limitations in terms of light output. The bulk of the application is inthe range of 150W - 250W in HPS (i.e. between 17,000 lm - 33,000 lm). Onlyrecently have manufacturers started coming up with competitive solutionsthat offer attractive payback (i.e. < 5 years).

• For this reason, LED Road Lighting solutions have mainly been applied toresidential streets and secondary/main roads. Conflict areas (i.e. roadinterchanges, roundabouts) and major highways remain lit with conventionalsolutions, even for new installations: typically 400W - 2000W floodlights, untilLED technology offers economically feasible substitutes.

• Manufacturers foresee higher lumen output solutions being available by 2015,eventually replacing today’s 400W - 600W HPS solutions.

• Equivalences to higher wattages (1,000W - 2,000W HID) are expected by 2018.

Philips Speedstar: Up to 26,906lm

GE ERS4: Up to 21,900lm

Schreder Teceo2: Up to 30,800lm

Cree LEDWay SLM: Up to 23,652lm


Alternative TechnologiesOLED - To Higher Efficiency and New Designs with OLED

Evolution of Light Sources for Lighting → Toward Solid State Lighting (SSL)

IncandescentLinear

Fluorescent

Compact

FluorescentLED

Very low

efficiency

Poor light

quality

Moderate

efficiency -

Mercury

content

Glare and

heating issues

due to point light

Source

Green = Advantages

Red = Drawbacks

→ Toward Solid State Lighting (SSL)

Flexible

OLED

Transparent

OLEDOLED

Area light -

Large design

choice

“Invisible”

when turned

off

Huge design

choice -

Potential for

low cost

manufacturingEvolution of Light Sources for Lighting


Annual Sales of Lamps in Asia (Volume)Split by Technology

Based on global population growth and strong urbanization (mostly in China and India), the volume of the Asian lamp market will grow, accelerated by LED penetration, until 2013 before

declining.


GaN-on-Si LEDsScenarios of Evolution (2/2)

• LED-on-Si might be better suited for certain types of LED than others. In addition, the break-even pointand incentives to adopt Silicon substrate can vary widely, depending on each individual LED maker’ssituation:

Highlight:

• A single large CMOS fab could supply worldwide LED demand for years to come. As a result, massiveadoption of LED-on-Si would dramatically change the landscape of the front-end LED industry. It wouldfacilitate the emergence of new or smaller players who currently don’t have access to the capital neededto become major players in the industry, and could also entice vertically integrated LED makers toabandon in-house chip manufacturing.

Start-up or LED

company willing to

scale-up capacity

without massive CAPEX

“Fabless” model

Large Semiconductor

company with existing

CMOS capacity willing to

enter the LED Market

Tier-1 LED Maker with

advanced GaN-on-

Sapphire technology,

and large installed

capacity


Chinese LED IndustryGeographical Distribution of Chinese LED Players

Chinese LED industry is distributed through 7 main bases… Each one specialized on a specific level of the supply chain (chip players, packaging players, application players).

Source: Gao Hua Securities Research and SEMI China

LED industrial base

General

Lighting,

Automotive

Lighting,

Backlighting

…


About Yole Développement and LED Activity

75 cours Emile Zola, F-69001 Lyon-Villeurbanne, FranceTel : +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax : +33 472 83 01 83

Web: http://www.yole.fr

http://www.yole.fr/


Yole DéveloppementField of Research Activity

• Yole Développement is a market research and strategy consulting company founded in 1998.

• We are involved in the following areas:

• Our research is performed by in-house personnel conducting open-ended discussions based oninterviews.

– 32 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees.

– Primary research including over 3,500 interviews per year.

Photovoltaic

Microfluidic & Medical Technologies

MEMS & Image

Sensors

Wafer & Substrates

Power Electronics

LED, OLED and Laser Diode

Advanced

Packaging


Yole DéveloppementAll Around the World

We are present in Europe, North America and Asia.

Lyon, France - Headquarter

40% of our activity is in

Europe


Asia


North America

Yole Inc.Yole Japan

Yole Paris

System Plus

Consulting


Yole DéveloppementMission Statement - Knowledge Based Company

• Help our customers to develop their business through specific analysis and reports, byproviding:

– Accurate market data, market segmentation and marketing analysis.

– Technical evaluation, technology cost and Cost Of Ownership (COO) analysis.

– Patent portfolio analysis.

– Freedom to operate analysis.

– Strategic analysis to enhance company and business unit performances.

– Strategic development support (growth opportunities identification, M&A support, investorsidentification…).

– Advertising opportunities in Yole’s magazines, via webinar, specific events…

• Help our customers to get operational results from our actions.


Yole DéveloppementSupporting the Entire Value Chain

Yole consultants provide Market Analysis, Technology Evaluation and Business Plan Assessment for customers along the entire value chain.


LED Activity Yole is Active All Over the LED Value Chain

Substrate Front-end Level 0 - Epitaxy• Nucleation layer

• N-type layer

• Active layers (MQW)

• P-type layer

SiC / Sapphire / Silicon /

Bulk GaN / Composite

substrates

LED epi-wafer

Mesa LED structure

Flip Chip LED structure

Vertical LED structure

LED dies-on-waferLED dies

Back-End level 1 - Packaging• Die Attach & Interconnections

• Phosphors

• Encapsulation & optics

• Testing & Binning

Packaged LED

Front-end Level 1 - Device Making• Inspection

• Masking / Lithography

• Etching

• Metallization / Contacts / Mirrors

Back-End Level 0 - Packaging• Substrate separation & Bonding

• Die singulation

• Testing & Binning


LED ActivityAbout Yole’s LED Analyst Team

Dr. Philippe ROUSSEL - Business Unit Manager

Philippe ROUSSEL holds a Ph-D in Integrated Electronics Systems from the National

Institute of Applied Sciences of Lyon (INSA - France). He joined Yole Développement

in 1998 and is Business Unit Manager of the Compound Semiconductors, Photovoltaic,

LED and Power Electronics department.

Dr. Eric VIREY - Senior Analyst

Eric VIREY holds a Ph-D in Optoelectronics from the National Polytechnic Institute of

Grenoble (INPG - France). In the last 12 years, he has held various R&D, engineering,

manufacturing and marketing positions with Saint-Gobain. Most recently, he was

Market Manager at Saint-Gobain Crystals, in charge of Sapphire and Optoelectronic

products.

Pars MUKISH - Senior Analyst

Pars MUKISH holds a master degree in Materials Science & Polymers and a master

degree in Innovation & Technology Management (EM Lyon - France). He works at Yole

Développement as Market and Technology Analyst in the fields of LED and Lighting

Technologies to carry out technical, economic and marketing analysis. Previously, he

has worked as Marketing and Techno-Economic Analyst for several years at the CEA.


LED Activity2013 - 2014 LED Report (Latest & To Come)

Status of the LED Industry

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LED Front End


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LED Packaging


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LED PhosphorsIP Investigation


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LED PhosphorsMarket & Techno. Trends


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Substrates for LED


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UV LED


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OLED for Lighting


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LED in Road and Street Lighting


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LED Activity2013 - 2014 LED Report (Latest & To Come)

III - V Epitaxy


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LED CoSim+


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status of the led industry 2013 report by yole developpement

Technology

led tvs

led module

led price trends led

led volume forecast

led industry market

application led adoption

led forecast p44 introduction

organic led oled comparison