90 digital igaming reports: seo risk in igaming...how did penguin 2.0 affect search results across...

90 Digital iGaming Reports: SEO Risk in iGaming Risk of being hit by a Google update has doubled in 17 months

June 2013 - Gillis van den Broeke

About the Author Gillis van den Broeke is the Director of Data & Operations at 90 Digital.

Originally from the Netherlands, but now living in London. He holds a BSc. and

MSc. with distinction. Gillis has experience as freelance digital marketer and

was manager of an online marketing programme at Unibet. Now he is

responsible for all data gathering, data mining, data analysis, and operation

management activities at 90 Digital.

Email the author for questions and feedback:

[email protected]

Visit linked in profile: uk.linkedin.com/in/gillisvandenbroeke/

About 90 Digital 90 Digital, the agency driven by data. They leverage data and analytics for measurably better outcomes

for all parties. Based in London and specialising in the iGaming industry, they provide advanced search

planning and strategy, complex content campaigns and effective social marketing.

For more information, and a fresh copy of this report visit: 90digital.com

mailto:[email protected]://uk.linkedin.com/in/gillisvandenbroeke/http://90digital.com/

Executive Summary

Google is tightening its fight against ‘webspam’ in their rankings. In the iGaming sector, many companies

that depend on Google traffic for their revenue are exposed to risk of losing rankings in the near future.

To understand how much risk sites are exposed to, we gathered data on 4378 domains ranking in the

top 20 search results in Google.co.uk for 210 keywords during 17 month, representing 767,190 monthly

search volume. 67% of these sites were affiliates, 8 % operators, and 25% other sites. 54% were

considered small, and 46% large.

The major findings were that:

Risk of losing 6 or more ranking positions, but remaining in the top 20, doubled over the last 17

months, from 4% to 8%.

Risk of disappearing from the top 20 remained stable during 2012, but rose in the first 5 months

of 2013 from 17% to 26%. Note that this percentage includes sites that dropped for reasons

other than ‘spammy links’.

The risk is higher if you are a casino or bingo site. If you are an affiliate you are also exposed to more

risk, although operators risk exposure is catching up quickly with affiliates. Being bigger is still good, but

it matters less than it used to.

The data suggests that Google is getting serious about fighting webspam. The risk of losing rankings is

increasing if your backlink profile contains a lot of ‘spam’. The recommended strategy is high quality

content and outreach to get ‘good’ links that google will not devalue. Is this is an expensive exercise,

deliberate planning and structured execution is recommended.

,

Introduction

Your risk in doing SEO (search engine optimisation) is increasing. By how much? This report gives insight.

We answer the following questions:

What do the top 20 search results across iGaming look like?

What is the chance you get hit by an update?

How did penguin 2.0 affect search results across iGaming?

To help you understand what the risk is SEO in and how it is changing, we analysed almost 69,593 data

points covering 17 months of rankings for 210 iGaming keywords on Google.co.uk.

SEO in iGaming is risky because the potential rewards are high. This means that companies push the

limits of Google, and Google pushes back by devaluing links it considers spam.

Understanding risk is important, because the revenue streams of many companies depend on organic

search traffic. They would be severely if they did not receive search traffic. Thus, quantifying the risk is

essential. If you push too far, your domain will be toasted.

In part 1 of the report we analyse top 20 results of the top iGaming keywords. You will learn which

sectors are most expensive, the ratio of affiliates to operators, and the distribution of small and large

sites.

Part 2 will enable you to understand the trends in the risk of getting hit by an update and disappearing

from the top search results. We show you evidence that risk has nearly doubled over the last 17 months,

and that it is accelerating. Casino and bingo sites are most exposed. Long term trends will be made

visible and data for poker, bingo, casino and sports-betting, operators and affiliates, large and small sites

will be analysed.

PART 1: Industry Landscape

Part 1 looks at the ‘search

engine landscape’ in

iGaming. This part gives you

valuable insights in

differences between

keywords, sectors, types of

sites, and size of sites.

THE KEYWORDS For our research, we analysed the top 20

positions in Google for 210 keywords. We

used historic monthly ranking data from

SEMrush.com going back to January 2012. The

Keywords are the top iGaming keywords in the

UK, divided into the sectors bingo, casino,

poker and sports-betting. Branded keywords

are excluded from the dataset, because they

would skew results in favour of big brands.

In total, these 210 keywords generate more

than three quarters of a million search queries

every month (767,190 to be exact). Figure 1

shows that the sectors casino and bingo have

bigger search volumes than poker and betting.

The average cost per click (CPC) of these

keywords is £18. AdWords CPC prices are an

indication of the commercial value of traffic

from a keyword. This is true regardless

whether traffic is paid or organic. Figure 2

shows that the average CPC of casino

keywords is outrageous, hitting almost £35.

The rest hovers around £10.

Combining CPC and volume, we can calculate

how much it would theoretically cost to buy

the organic traffic on AdWords. The total

figure is £23,308,401. More than 23 million

Pounds Sterling every month. More than half

comes from Casino. As can you can see in the

table below

NR OF KEYWORDS

TOTAL TRAFFIC AVERAGE COST PER CLICK

VALUE OF TRAFFIC

BINGO 30 219,800 £ 13.76 £ 4,476,047

CASINO 60 247,000 £ 34.93 £ 14,978,809

POKER 60 145,750 £ 9.83 £ 2,066,491

SPORTS-BETTING 60 154,640 £ 10.79 £ 1,787,055

GRAND TOTAL 210 767,190 £ 17.84 £ 23,308,402

Figure 2: Average CPC values (UK) by sector

219800

247000

145750 154640

BINGO CASINO POKER SPORTS-BETTING

Monthly Volume (UK)

Figure 1 Monthly Search Volume (UK) by sector

13.76

34.93

9.83 10.79


Average CPC (UK)

THE WEBSITES By sector During the 17 months of data analysed, more

than ten thousand (10,683 to be exact) different

URLS ranked in the top 20 positions. These URLS

belonged to 4378 different domains. This report

compares data on the level of domains because

this is the relevant level of detail for most

businesses.

The ‘domains’ in figures 1 and 2 show there are

more different domains and URLS in casino. As

this chart shows the domains we see over time, it

suggests that domains rank for shorter amounts

of time on casino keywords, before they are

replaced by others. It seems that competition is

higher. This makes perfect sense when learned

that the Cost per click of casino keywords is 3

times higher than others.

You may notice that the Domains and URLS do not

add up. The reason is that some domains and

URLS will rank for keywords from multiple

categories. The difference is small though, about

8%, and 12% for URLS. This shows how most

websites focus on one sector within the iGaming

industry.

The ‘normalised’ metric shows how many domains and urls there would be if there were 60 keywords for Bingo,

instead of 30, assuming linear extrapolation.

NR OF KEYWORDS

DOMAINS DOMAINS (NORMALISED)

URLS URLS (NORMALISED)

BINGO 30 537 1074 1282 2564

CASINO 60 1859 1859 3396 3396

POKER 60 1242 1242 2811 2811

SPORTS-BETTING

60 1126 1126 3237 3237

GRAND TOTAL 210 4378 5003 10683 12209

Figure 3: Number of domains per sector (normalised)

1074

1859

12421126


Number of domains (normalised)

2564

3396

2811

3237


Number of URLs (normalised)

Figure 4: Average CPC values (UK) by sector (normalised)

By Category Not all sites are the same. In the iGaming search

ecosystem, the two relevant types of sites are

the operators and affiliates. Operators provide

payment facility and provide access to the

games. Although they normally do not host or

own the games, customers recognize the

operator brands as the entity they interact with.

Affiliates make their money delivering new

customers to the operators. For many affiliates,

Google traffic is their major source of income.

Figure 5 shows there are roughly 8 affiliates for

every operator in the top 20 search results. Sites

in the ‘other’ category are for example

Wikipedia, and Facebook. They also take a

significant part of the search results.

DOMAINS URLS

AFFILIATE 2890 5789

OPERATOR 366 1800

OTHER 1056 2975

GRAND TOTAL 4312 10564

affiliate67%operator

8%

other25%

Domains

Figure 5: domains by category

By Size In Search engine optimization, there is a

difference between small and large sites. Large

sites rank more easily on a large number of

phrases due to their authority.

To determine size, MajesticSEO.com’s Trust Flow

metric is used. Trust Flow measures how many

backlinks from trustworthy sites a domain has.

This metric is found to correlate well with total

organic traffic. Using Trust Flow, our definition

of size not only includes traffic volume and

incoming links, but also a measure real world

trustworthiness.

The cut off point for small sites is a Domain Trust

flow of 20. Higher than 20 is considered large.

Trust flow is distribution according to a power

law, this means that the top 25% of sites will have a trust flow higher than 20. As shown in figure 6, in

the top 20 iGaming search engine results, there are similar amounts of large and small sites.

DOMAINS URLS

LARGE SITES 1982 7118

SMALL SITES 2330 3446 GRAND TOTAL 4312 10564

Large sites46%

Small sites54%

Domains

Figure 6: domains by Size

By Category & Size

Finally we will drill down to the combinations

of size and category. We differentiate between

large affiliates, small affiliates, large operators

and small operators. This chart shown leaves

out the ‘other’ sites which are not so relevant

in the commercial iGaming ecosystem.

Figure 7 shows how few operators there

actually are compared to affiliates. And also

how many big affiliates there are.

DOMAINS OPERATOR AFFILIATE GRAND TOTAL

SMALL 250 971 1221

LARGE 116 1919 2035

GRAND TOTAL 366 2890 3256

large affiliate

30%

large operator

8%

small operator

3%

small affiliate

59%

Domains

Figure 7: domains by category and size

PART 2: Understanding Risk

In part 1 we looked at the landscape of

important iGaming keywords, and highlighted the

difference between the sectors bingo, casino,

poker, and sports-betting. We also looked at the

differences between operators and affiliates, and

compared small to large sites.

Part 2 gives insight into the risk of being hit by

an update that causes you to drop significantly.

Because the commercial value of ranking for

some keywords is so high, every company

‘playing’ in this space is exposed to the risk of

losing rankings due to unnatural link profiles.

Understanding this risk is a requirement for

managing it.

Risk of being hit

We use two metrics to assess the levels of risk. The first is ‘risk of being hit’

by an update penalty but staying in the top 20. The second is risk of

disappearing from the top 20.

Figure one shows how the risk of being hit by an update has almost doubled

since January 2012.

The red line (actual observations) is spikey, showing that actual amount of

sites being hit fluctuates. The amount of sites during the last two months is

at an all-time high. This shows how Google is tightening its algorithm to

fight webspam.

The black dotted trendline (linear regression) shows that chances of being

hit went from 4% to almost 8% in 17 months. Its R squared value is over 0.5.

This means that the trend fits the data reasonably well. We can therefore

assume that this trend will continue. Your risk of penalty increases roughly

3%* every month.

* ( (8 %- 4%) / 17 months) / 8% =3.125%. The latest value is slightly below 8%, but this is a rough estimation only.

R² = 0.5136

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Risk of being hit

Risk of being hit

As proxy for getting a being

hit by an algo update or

penalty, we measure the

number of URLs that were

14 or higher previous month

that drop 6 or more

positions, but remain in the

top 20.

Such a big drop is not a

normal event. Probably, you

received a penalty, or an

algorithm update devalued

your links. The root cause is

the same. Your rankings

were kept buoyant by

spammy links. And Google

corrected that error.

T

Figure 8: Risk of being hit over time

Risk of disappearing

Figure 10 shows that the risk of disappearing (Blue line)

for the top 20 has fluctuated between 15% and 20%

during 2012, but in 2013 it has seen a stronger upswing.

The dotted trendline (linear regression) shows a very slow

increase over time. However, the R squared value of 0.23

suggests not a great fit with the data. This means that it

appears hard to predict the future risk of disappearing

from the past 17 months.

However, when we zoom in and focus on only on 2013,

the picture changes as you can see in figure 9. The linear

regression line has a R squared of 0.97. This means that

the data is almost a perfectly straight line. It seems that

Google has increased the number of URLs that are

dropped from the top 20 every month. The number of

URLS that disappear grows by a staggering 12% a month.

This data, in combination with Google’s commitment to

fighting webspam suggests that the growth will continue.

However, at some point it will have to slow down,

otherwise rankings would totally change every month.

Risk of Disappearing

This metric is the % of sites that in the top

last month, and disappeared from the top

20 this month.

URLS disappear for multiple reasons,

including being replaced by another of the

same domain. However, a significant

amount is likely due to penalties.

R² = 0.9709

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1/1/2013 2/1/2013 3/1/2013 4/1/2013 5/1/2013

Risk of dissaparing since January 2013

R² = 0.232

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30% Risk of disappearing

Figure 9: Risk of disappearing since January 2013

Figure 10: Risk of disappearing

Risk of Penalty by Sector Which sectors are the most risky to operate?

Figure 11 shows that casino is the most risky

sector, closely followed by Bingo, while sports

betting and poker are much less risky.

When we analyse change over time in figure 12,

a Bingo has a very strong increase last month.

This coincides with the latest penguin 2.0

algorithm update. Further, the chart shows that

the lines that were close together in the first half

of 2012 are drifting apart. Poker and sports

betting are not increasing a lot in risk, while

casino and bingo do.

6.5%

7.2%

4.9% 4.9%


Risk of being hit

Figure 11: Risk of being hit by sector

Figure 12: Risk of being hit by sector

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Risk of being hit

Bingo

Casino

Poker

Sports-betting

Risk of disappearing by Sector

Figure 13 shows that Casino is again the most risky, and

interestingly, sports betting is second.

When we look at figure 14, the rising trend identified in

the previous section seems to hold for all four sectors.

None of them escape Google’s intensified pruning of

link profiles.

In terms of the amount of risk, casino is clearly more

risky than the other three, which seem to be quite

equal, with sports betting lowering its risk in the recent

months.

In short, based on this section, and the previous. It

seems that casino is squarely in Google’s scope for

penalties. This is not surprising given the value of its

traffic, as shown in Part 1 of this report (figure 2).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Risk of disappearing

Bingo

Casino

Poker

Sports-betting

Figure 13: Risk of disappearing by sector

23%

27%

21%24%


average risk of disappearing

Figure 14: Risk of disappearing by sector over time

Risk of SEO by category When comparing affiliates, operators and ‘other’ sites, figure 15 shows the risk of being hit by an

algorithm updated. From the regular spikes, it appears that affiliates have high risk to be hit. Operators

have been spared mostly, but that has changed in the last few month. This change is reason for

operators to have a good look at their backlink profile.

The risk of disappearing shows an equal upward trend for all three types of sites. However affiliates risk

is significantly higher than operators. It is also rising faster. Here it seems that the affiliates are the one

who have to worry.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Risk of being hit

affiliate

operator

other

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Risk of dissapearing

affiliate

operator

other

Figure 15: Risk of being hit by category of site over time

Figure 16: Risk of disappearing by category of site over time

Risk of SEO by size Large sites are defined as having a MajesticSEO.com’s Trust Flow higher than 20, and small sites 20 and

lower. Figure 17 shows how historically small sites had higher risk, but the figures for large and small

have been converging. Now they are similar.

Figure 18 shows how small sites have a much higher risk of their URL’s disappearing from the top results

than do large sites. However much of the recent growth in risk is accounted for by the large sits, with

the small sites stabilising.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Risk of being hit

large

small

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Risk of dissapearing

large

small



Conclusion

This report looked at 2 complementary metrics of risk in iGaming SEO and found significant evidence of

increasing risk. Both metrics have been increasing over time. Risk of being hit had a stable growth since

2012 and the risk of disappearing has seen strong growth since the start of 2013. Both metrics are at an

all-time high in the last month.

Based on these trends, and knowing Google’s commitment to fighting webspam, we can make the

prediction that there will be an increasing number of sites that will lose an important portion of its

rankings in the near future. These will be the sites whose link profile has a large portion of ‘spam’ links.

The risk will be higher if you are a casino or bingo site, and if you are an affiliate, although operators risk

exposure is catching up quickly with affiliates. Size still matters, but not as much as it used to.

The Recent penguin 2.0 update is reflected in the data, as the risk values are at their all-time high.

However, the more important notion here is that penguin was not a dramatic change from the trend.

Instead, it seemed to fall within the expected range of values. This suggests that the named updates

serve a Public Relations (PR) function, and their actual efforts to curb webspam happen on a more

incremental basis.

What can you do to reduce your risk? If you know your link profile is ‘bad’, you can anticipate reduced

rankings in the near future. To correct for this, you might decide to go heavy on the high end content

creation and outreach to close gap with links that are not considered ‘spam’. This is an expensive

exercise.

Ultimately, careful planning will help ensure a stable growth and spend efficiency.

90 digital igaming reports: seo risk in igaming...how did penguin 2.0 affect search results across...

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