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August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar
NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update
April 2016
Jake Crouch Climate Scientist, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
Nina Oakley Asst. Research Climatologist & Calif. Climate
Specialist, Western Regional Climate Center
Jon Gottschalck Chief, Operational Prediction Branch NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 2
• March +1.22°C above 20th century average
– Warmest March on record
– 11th consecutive record warm month
– Largest monthly departure from average
• Land: +2.33°C
– Warmest March on record
– Largest monthly departure from average
• Ocean: +0.81°C
– Warmest March on record
The global temperature record dates to 1880 (137 years)
Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles March 2016
April 2016
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 3 April 2016
An
om
alie
s (°
C)
abo
ve t
he
20
th c
entu
ry a
vera
ge
January-March 2016: +1.15°C above
average, surpassing 2015 by 0.29°C.
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar
• West Coast, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Midwest were wetter than average.
• Record floods in AR, LA, MS, and TN.
• Drier than average along East Coast.
• Southwest was dry, where New Mexico was record dry with only 8% of average precipitation.
Temperature: 47.5°F, +6.0°F, 4th warmest March on record
Precipitation: 2.89”, +0.38”, 26th wettest March on record
4
• Every state was warmer than average.
• Much-above-average temperatures across the Rockies, Great Plains, Midwest, and East Coast.
• There were 22x more warm daily temperature records than cold daily temperature records
Statewide Temperature Ranks March 2016 Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
Statewide Precipitation Ranks, March 2016 Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
April 2016
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 5
April 2016
15.4 of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 1.1 percentage points since early March)
• Improvement: Pacific Northwest, Northern California, Southern Plains
• Degradation: Southwest, Central Plains, Northern Plains, Mid-Atlantic
• Outside CONUS: Worsening drought for all of Hawaii
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 6
April 2016
5% normal SWE 85% normal SWE
Apr 1 2015 Apr 1 2016
April 1 2015
Snowpack
April 1 2016
Snowpack
Images
courtesy
USDA NRCS Images
courtesy
CA DWR
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 7 April 2016
Northern Sierra
Northern Cascades Snowpack peak in March
(highlighted), earlier than median.
Quick decline in first half of April
Images courtesy
USDA NRCS
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 8 April 2016
April 1 2016 - % normal SWE April 15 2016 - % normal SWE
87
105 107
111
89
111
71
113
109
81
9591
95
93
101
128
103
89
106
111
102
65
103
110
99
85
113
99
100
110
106
116
108
95
103
0
123
112
88
0
86
71
103
95
95
121
113
107
92
92
125
90
121
0
112
109
104
95
110
70
106
0
100
104
95
112
83
101
93
95
95
100
119
4
108
98
97
97
0
98
93
109
106
101
110
103
105
100
69
2
128
126
68
94
3
78
110
137
110
31
108
101
115
105
101
115
100
103
100
122
114
102
102
139
107
51
100
93
131
122
108
139
104
Apr 01, 2016Current Snow WaterEquivalent (SWE)Basin-wide Percent of 1981-2010 Median
unavailable *
<50%
50 - 69%
70 - 89%
90 - 109%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
>= 150%
Prepared by:USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center Portland, Oregonhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Provisional data subject to revision
Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
0 150 30075
Miles
* Data unavailable at time of posting
or measurement is not representative
at this time of year
The snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 9 April 2016
Ending At Midnight - April 17, 2016
Graph Updated 04/18/2016 04:45 PM
LEGEND
Capacity
(TAF)
% of Capacity |% of HistoricalAverage
Historical
Average
Trinity Lake
59% | 72%
Shasta Reservoir
92% | 109%Lake Oroville
93% | 117%Folsom Lake
80% | 115%
New Melones
27% | 43%Don Pedro Reservoir
64% | 88%
Exchequer Reservoir
41% | 72%
San Luis Reservoir
50% | 56%
Millerton Lake
57% | 81%
Perris Lake
36% | 43%Castaic Lake
44% | 48%
Pine Flat Reservoir
46% | 78%
April 18 2016
CA reservoir
conditions
Source:
CA DWR
• Large northern CA reservoirs
above normal storage
• Many key reservoirs still below
normal
• Impacts of multi-year drought still
affecting the state
• OR, WA near normal storage
• CA, NV, NM, AZ below normal–
drought conditions
introduced/expanded this winter
in AZ/NM
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 10 April 2016
• Sea surface temperatures
– Above normal SSTs across the equatorial Pacific
– Above normal SSTs along the west coast of North America
– El Nino Advisory remains in place
• ENSO forecast
– El Niño is forecast to continue to weaken
– A transition to ENSO neutral is likely during spring or early summer 2016
– La Nina Watch issued
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 11
May Average Temperature Probability
May Total Precipitation Probability
April 2016
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 12
May-Jun-Jul Average Temperature Probability
May-Jun-Jul Total Precipitation Probability
April 2016
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar 13 April 2016
August 2015 Monthly Climate Webinar
For More Information
TODAY’S PRESENTATION:
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Western Regional Climate Center: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/
U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov
Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
NOAA Media Contacts:
• John. [email protected], 301-713-0214 (NOAA Office of Communications/NESDIS)
• [email protected], 202-482-2365 (NOAA Office of Communications/HQ)
14 Monthly Climate Webinar April 2016