NOAA Climate Program

Chester J. KoblinskyDirector, NOAA Climate Program Office

The 29th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction WorkshopUniversity of Wisconsin, Madison

October 20, 2004

Outline

• NOAA Climate Program Program• Climate Program Office• Climate Dynamics & Experimental

Prediction Program• Climate Prediction Program for the

Americas• Climate Variability and Prediction Program

NOAA Climate ProgramCCSP and NOAA goal structure

Climate Change Science Program

• Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate …. and improve understanding … of observed variability and change

• Improve quantification of the forces…

• Reduce uncertainty in projections….

• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of … ecosystems …

• … manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

NOAA Climate Goal Structure

– Observations and Analysis

– Climate Forcing

– Climate Predictions and Projections

– Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

– Regional Decision Support

NOAA Climate Program

Management

NOAA Management

PPI NOAA Research

Climate Program Board

Climate Program Office

SAB

Climate Working Group

Scientific and programmatic advice

Program Manager chairs Board

All NOAA LO’s represented

Develops program plans and policies

Overall program management

Integration of climate activities across LO’s

Interface with CCSP 10

Climate Program OfficeFunctions

Programming & Planning

Research & Development

Transition Products to & Operations Services

Climate Program Office

Organization

Climate Assessments and Services Division

ClimateObservation

Division

ResearchProgramsDivision

Program andPlanningDivision

Administrative ServicesDivision

Director

Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program (CDEP)

Toward an Integrated, Requirement Based, and Products Driven Applied R&D Program

Program Manager, Ming Ji

CDEP Goals

Transition to Operations• Contributing to enhanced NWS intra-seasonal to

inter-annual climate forecast operations

Enhancing Products and Services• Contributing to enhanced NOAA climate products

and services

Observing System Evaluation• Provide feedbacks to climate observing system

CDEP Strategy

• Applied Research Centers (ARCs)– Mission oriented R&D efforts (including directed research)– Stable funding to enable long term R&D efforts– Unique capabilities– Close linkage with RISA (e.g., CSES, CDC, COAPS)

• A Competitive R&D Program– Research to Operations Transition: forecasts and applications product

development (CTB)– Climate model improvements (CPTs)– Observing system evaluation (annual report)– Host for other relevant NOAA and interagency efforts

• IRI– End-to-End climate prediction research and applications– Infrastructure for experimental prediction, forecast applications– International Prediction, Assessments, Applications

CDEP Priorities

• Transition to Operations• Baseline for seasonal forecast skill score (Seasonal Predictability)• Improved operational forecast models (CPTs) • Experimental Multi-model ensemble forecasts (CTB)

• Application Products and Services• Agriculture• Fire danger• Water resource management (Hydrological f’cst-wk2 to seasonal)• Energy• International applications

• Climate Observing System Evaluation• Annual NOAA climate observing system assessment reports

• Applied Research (Long term, all goals)• Regional models/down scaling for fcsts, assessments• Predictability on subseasonal to decadal time scales• Ocean/coupled data assimilation prospects/methodologies

Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)

Process Understanding to Advance Climate Services

Program Managers, Jin Huang & Mike Patterson

CPPA Goals

- Improve the understanding and model simulation of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes

- Determine the predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to-interannual time scales

- Advance NOAA’s operational climate forecast, monitoring, and analysis systems

- Develop climate-based hydrologic forecasting capabilities and decision support tools for water resource applications

CPPA Priorities

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions- address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases, e.g., Eastern Pacific

Investigation of Climate (EPIC), stratus deck experiment (VOCALS)

Land-Atmosphere Interactions- develop land surface model and assimilation systems for use in climate forecast

models to understand and model land-atmosphere interactions- develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models

Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions- evaluate and improve the coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system, e.g., regional reanalysis, North American monsoon experiment (NAME), western mountain hydroclimate, drought predictability, monsoon experiment over South America (MESA)

Water Resource Applications- improve hydrologic forecasting- develop decision support tools

FY06 CPPA Thrust:Drought Monitoring And Prediction

• Real-time and retroactive Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) provide soil moisture for monitoring and predicting drought;

• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Western Mountain Climate Studies will improve climate/hydrologic forecasts in the West;

• Understanding and attribution of oceanic and land surface influences on drought processes;

• National Long-Range Hydrologic Prediction System will provide central guidance products for drought monitoring & prediction and water resource management

Climate Variability and Prediction Program (CLIVAR)

Predictability and Fundamental Prediction Capabilities

Program Manager, Jim Todd

U.S. CLIVAR• identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability on

seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales and evaluate their predictability;

• expand our capacity in short term (seasonal to interannual) climate predictability and search for ways to predict decadal variability;

• better document the record of rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future;

• evaluate and enhance the models used to predict climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition.

U.S. CLIVAR is a research program with several related goals:

• The CPT (Climate Process Team) is a new paradigm established by the U.S. CLIVAR program that brings together observationalists, theoreticians, small-scale modelers and scientists at the modeling centers to work closely together to improve parameterizations of a particular process in one or more IPCC-class models.

• Three “pilot” CPTs have been funded through an interagency announcement.

Climate Process Team

Low-latitude Cloud Feedbacks

on Climate Sensitivity CPTLead PI: Christopher S Bretherton, University of Washington

• Goal - To increase our understanding of tropical and subtropical cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity, and reduce the large uncertainty in GCM simulations of these feedbacks:

1. Diagnose in detail the reasons for different behavior of NCAR vs. GFDL low cloud distribution with 2xCO2

2. Try to constrain the relevant cloud feedbacks using current and historical data, especially the low cloud feedbacks relevant to (1).

3. Improve relevant GCM parameterizations using best available physics, focusing especially on cloud microphysics, shallow and deep cumulus convection, and cloud-topped PBLs.

Thank You