noaa climate science & services monthly climate update · december 2016 monthly climate webinar...
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December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
NOAA Climate Science & ServicesMonthly Climate Update
December 2016
Deke ArndtChief, climate monitoring branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
Charles (Chip) KonradDirector of the Southeast Climate Center & assoc. professor at Univ. of North Carolina – Chapel Hill
Brad PughMeteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Operations Prediction Branch
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• Global temperature data to be released Monday, December 19th
• It will be available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
COMING SOON
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
• Generally dry with some regional exceptions• Very dry east of the Mississippi River.
– Florida had its driest November on record• Drought intensified in the Southeast and the
Southern Plains during November.
Temperature: 48.0°F; 6.3°F above 20th century avg; 2nd warmest NovPrecipitation: 1.73”; 0.50” below 20th century avg; “below normal”
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• Widespread warmth across United States• Idaho, North Dakota and Washington State were
record warm for November• There were 40x more warm daily temperature
records than cold daily temperature records.
Temperature Ranks, November 2016Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
Precipitation Ranks, November 2016Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2016/11
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
• Tropical systems (Hermine in September and Matthew in October) evident along Atlantic coast
• Very wet October in Pacific NW— Washington State had its driest autumn
• Serious drought conflagration in SE
Temperature: 57.6°F; 4.1°F above 20th century avg; warmest autumnPrecipitation: 6.88”; exactly the 20th century avg; “near normal”
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• Second consecutive warmest autumn for US• Widespread warmth across United States• CO, KS, NM, TX, IA, MI, MN, WI record warm
Temperature Ranks, Autumn 2016Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
Precipitation Ranks, Autumn 2016Period: 1895-2016 (122 years)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2016/11
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Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature, September-November
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
Arctic SIE: 3.51M sq miles, 750K sq miles (17.7%) below avg, smallest on recordAntarctic SIE: 5.61M sq miles, 700K sq miles (11.1%) below avg, smallest on record
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Arctic Sea Ice, 2016
• 750K sq miles (the “missing” Arctic sea ice extent for November) is about a quarter the size of the contiguous United States
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~29.8% of Contiguous U.S. in Drought ( 3.0 percentage points since early Nov)
• Nov: Drought spread outward from Southeast & Southern Appalachians epicenter; worsened in Plains
• Wildfire outbreaks in Southeast during November
• California / Western US drought goes on
• California south of SF Bay still in serious drought
• California wet season begins late autumn
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
Precipitation totals Departure from Normal (%)
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
Wildfire smoke blanketing the interior Southeast on November 14th. (Image credit: NASA Worldview)
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• Sea surface temperatures– Below average SSTs across the central
and eastern equatorial Pacific
– Above average SSTs surrounding the Maritime Continent
– La Niña advisory remains in place
• ENSO forecast– La Niña is slightly favored to persist
through the winter 2016-17
– A transition to ENSO neutral is expected during January-March 2017
– ENSO neutral conditions are most likely to persist through the summer 2017
Average SST Anomalies12 Nov 2016 – 10 Dec 2016
Early-Dec CPC/IRI Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
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January Average Temperature Probability
January TotalPrecipitation Probability
December 2016
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Jan-Feb-Mar Average Temperature Probability
Jan-Feb-Mar Total Precipitation Probability
December 2016
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December 2016 Monthly Climate Webinar
For More InformationTODAY’S PRESENTATION:
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Southeast Regional Climate Center: http://www.sercc.com/
U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov
Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
NOAA Media Contacts:• Katy Matthews, 828-257-3136 (NOAA Natl. Center for Environmental Information)
• [email protected], 202-482-2365 (NOAA Office of Communications/HQ)
17Monthly Climate WebinarDecember 2016