energy and climate change mitigation in india
TRANSCRIPT
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in IndiaEnergy and Climate Change Mitigation in India::Development, Technologies and StabilizationDevelopment, Technologies and Stabilization
GTSP Technical ReviewMay 23, 2007
JGCRI, College Park, MD 20740 USA
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
AgendaAgenda
Drivers of Energy and Emissions
Base Case Projections
Low Carbon Society (with Sustainable Development)
Stabilization (with Carbon Interventions)
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Drivers of Energy and Emissions and Base Case Projections
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Population and GDPPopulation and GDP
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Bill
ions
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$40
Thou
sand
$/c
apita
(200
0$)
Population
GDP/Capita
1,800 $45
$30
$35
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Demographic Transitions in IndiaDemographic Transitions in India
Population Projec tion for 2030
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0-4 5-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+
Age
gro
up
Populat ion (million)
Female Male
Population Projec tion for 2010
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0-4 5-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+
Age
gro
up
Population (million)
Female Male
Population Projec t ion for 2050
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0-4 5-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+
Age
gro
up
Population (million)
Female Male
Population in 1970
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
0-4 5-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9595-99100+
Age
gro
up
Population (million)
Female Male
1970 2010
2030 2050
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Demographic Transitions in India: Urban/RuralDemographic Transitions in India: Urban/Rural
Urban & Rural population of India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9019
50
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
% S
hare
RuralUrban
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Population and Population and Working Age PopulationWorking Age Population
Population (Million)
358
555
849
1183
14491593
0200400600800
1000120014001600
1800
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Annual Growth Rate of Population
2.22% 2.15%
1.67%
1.02%
0.47%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50
Labor Supply
133210
360
595
795915
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Annual Growth Rate of Labor Supply
2.30%
2.74%2.54%
1.46%
0.70%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
1950-70 1970-90 1990-2010 2010-30 2030-50
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Other Drivers of GrowthOther Drivers of Growth
Human Capital⎯ Government Expenditure in Education ⎯ Private Expenditure in Education ⎯ Urban / Rural & Gender-wise Education Expenditure⎯ (Net) Migration by Labor Classes (intra & inter county)
R&D⎯ Government/ Private Expenditure⎯ Knowledge Flows
Technology⎯ Backbones (infrastructures)⎯ Learning, transfers, deployment
Saving/ Investments⎯ Social Security⎯ Lifestyles, Behaviors
Governance⎯ Institutions⎯ Laws⎯ Policies
Savings Rate
20.6022.80
24.60
31.5033.00
30.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
4035.00
26.00
??
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
IndiaIndia’’s Economic Growth: GDP Projectionss Economic Growth: GDP Projections
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095 2105
Bas
e Ye
ar 2
005=
1
Medium
Low
CAGR 2005-50
A - 8.69%B - 7.85%C - 6.88%D - 5.95%
CAGR 2050-100
A - 5.41%B - 5.67%C - 5.69%D - 5.29%
High
Very High
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Perc
enta
ge o
f Prim
ary
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpt
ion
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1952 1960 1970 1980 1990
TraditionalBiomass
Nuclear
How to transit to Modern Biomass?
Food Security?
Fuel Supply?Waste disposal?
Safety?
En. Security: +Ve
Changing Structure of Energy UseChanging Structure of Energy Use
2001
Hydro
Coal
Oil
Gas
Domestic Resource: +ve
Direct Employment: +ve
Energy Security: -ve
Foreign Exchange: -ve
Geopolitical Risk: High
Foreign Exchange: -ve
Regional water disputes?
Indirect Benefits
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Electricity
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Trill
ion
Kw
h/yr
Wind; Solar; Hydro; Other renewable
Nuclear
Biomass
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Primary Energy
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
EJ/y
r
RenewablesNuclearHydroGasCoalOil
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Carbon Emission (by Fuel)
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
GtC
/yr
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Low Carbon Future through Sustainable Development:
An Analysis for India
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
LCS is a “Development Pathway” which:
a. facilitates achievement of the national socio-economic objectives and targets,
b. while contributing to the achievement of global objectives and targets for stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,
c. in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.
Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?Low Carbon Society (LCS) in Developing Country context?
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Low Carbon Society (LCS) ScenarioLow Carbon Society (LCS) Scenario
Drivers of India’s LCS Scenario (550 ppmv equivalent)
Carbon Emission Target (70% reduction over Base Case in 2050)
Energy Device Efficiency Targets (Demand/ Supply-side)
Dematerialization ⎯ Building Materials and Design⎯ Reduce (demand), Recycle & Reuse (3R) Materials
Infrastructure investments⎯ Avoid lock-ins⎯ Shift demand (e.g. transport modal split)
R&D and Technology Transfer⎯ Leapfrog (to the efficiency frontier)⎯ Innovations (to shift the efficiency frontier)
Planning & Governance⎯ Facilitate change in Lifestyles & Behaviors⎯ Institutions, Laws, Policies
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Key areas for interventions:
DemographicsLower Population Growth (e.g. investment in women’s education)Higher investment in social infrastructures (e.g. health, education)
ConservationEfficient technology, Substitutions, Recycling, Pricing, Dematerialization
City PlanningArchitecture/ Building Codes; Land use policies; Public Transport
Infrastructure choices
R&D, technology transfer and selective technology push
Incentives for environmental industry
Influencing consumer preferences/ behavior
Low Carbon Society: Scenario Development for IndiaLow Carbon Society: Scenario Development for India
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
How sustainable development policies influence LCS? How sustainable development policies influence LCS?
E.g. Education, Employment and Productivity nexus
Policies for public private partnership higher (public and private) investments in education Increases supply of education services
Incentives for education for women and socially and economically backward sections enhances demand for education
Women’s education reduces fertility rates & this together with family planning campaigns lead to lower population (than in reference & some others cases)
The increases in labor participation rates and enhanced skill profiles maintains labor supply and higher productivity in next few decades
Rural development policies (including education, employment, infrastructure push and reduced risk for investments) break through the rural/ urban dualism
(Likewise for other drivers, the sustainability scenario story differ)
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Specifics of the roadmap would differ across countries. What is important is to communicate transparently the qualitative story and its quantification (i.e. modeling)
Low Carbon Society RoadmapLow Carbon Society Roadmap
Low Carbon Society
Innovations (APEIS/SDB)
Co-benefits
Sustainability
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock-ins
Long-term Vision
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
National Socio-economic
Objectives and Targets
Global Climate Change
Objectives and Targets
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Carbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for IndiaCarbon Emissions: Base vs. LCS Scenario for India
Mitigation
India’s Cumulative Carbon Emission from 2000-2050
Billion Ton of CO2
Reference Scenario: 127.2
LCS Scenario: 64.3
Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 62.9
% Cumulative Mitigation in LCS: 49.5%
% Mitigation in LCS in 2050: 70.0%
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Mitigation in LCS Scenario for IndiaMitigation in LCS Scenario for India
Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency)
Buildings (Materials/Design)
Transport (Modal shift)
Material substitutions
Renewable Energy
Reduced ConsumptionRecycling
745
384
328
274207
90
102
265
Device Efficiency
2840Total CO2 Mitigation
Mitigation in LCS(in 2050)
173
272Urban Planning
Transport Infrastructure
20502000 2006
1284
Mill
ion
Ton
of C
O2
1032
4057
2050 LCS Emission: 1217(70% Mitigation target in 2050)
2050 Base Scenario
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Mitigation through Mitigation through ““dematerializationdematerialization”” in LCS Scenarioin LCS Scenario
• Dematerialization in LCS vis-à-vis Base Scenario is contributed by multiple direct and indirect policies, most of which belong to the policy packages relating to “sustainable development”.
• Change in building materials and design contribute significantly to dematerialization and energy efficiency in construction
• In addition, three other key contributors to mitigation through dematerialization are:
Mitigation (MT CO2) in 2050
Material Substitutions 207
Reduced Consumption 173
Recycling 90
• Energy and carbon intensive materials - of which the substitutions and reduced consumption contribute most to mitigation in the LCS scenario -are steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and paper.
• Recycling reduces the energy and carbon intensity of the materials, besides delivering environmental co-benefits.
Materials Demand in Base vs. LCS
Cement
Fertilizer Paper
Steel
Base
LCS
Base
LCS
Base
LCS
Base
LCS
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
SOSO22 Mitigation CoMitigation Co--benefits of LCS Scenario benefits of LCS Scenario
LCS policies generate benefits equivalent to 30% lower SO2 in 2050 and cumulative saving in SO2 Emissions Reduction equivalent to $11.2 billion over period 2006-2050
SO2 Co-benefit in LCS Scenario
Little carbon mitigationSO2 mitigation alone in Reference Scenario
Co-benefits Mitigation Regime
Joint Mitigation (Period 2007-2050)
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Modeling Climate Stabilization Induced Development Paths
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Indian Carbon Emissions ScenariosIndian Carbon Emissions Scenarios
Fragmented
IA1
Market Efficiency
IA2
Hybrid Economy(Reference)
IB1
Sustainable Development
IB2
Self RelianceClosed Economy
Cen
tral
izat
ion
De c
ent r
aliz
atio
n
Market integration
Gov
erna
nce
Integrated
2002000
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2020 2060 2100
CO
2E
mis
sion
s (M
T)
1800
2040 2080
IA2: Reference Scenario
IB1: LCS Scenario
IA1: Market Efficiency
Carbon Emissions
India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century (Billion Ton CO2)
Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363
Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2)
Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)
Indian Emissions Scenarios
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Renewable Energy Technologies
Technologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: LongTechnologies in Low Carbon Scenarios: Long--termterm
IA1T
IA2
IB2
IB1
21007502000
1500
2250
3000
3750
4500
5250
6000
2020 2060
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (M
illio
n T
on)
6750
2040 2080
IA1
Frozen Technology
High share of renewable Energy
Lifestyle changes, Eco-friendly choices
Sustainable habitats, Public amenities
Dematerialization, material substitutions
Substitution of transport by IT
Conventional Technology Paths Synfuels, Gas hydrates, Nuclear fission
Energy efficient appliances/ infrastrucutre
CO2 Capture/ Storage, pipeline networks
Fuel cell vehicle: Carbon-free hydrogen
Nuclear Fusion, Backstops
Advanced materials, Nanotechnology
Information highways, High speed trains
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization
India’s Total Carbon Emission in 21st Century (Billion Ton CO2)
Reference (IA2) Scenario : 363
Market Efficiency (IA1) Scenario : 286 (79% of IA2)
Sustainable Development (IB1) Scenario : 198 (55% of IA2)
550 PPMV Global Regime (LCS India) : 140 (39% IA2)
2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
2020 2060 2100
CO
2E
mis
sion
s (B
illio
n T
on)
7
2040 2080
550 ppmv (LCS)
IA2
IB1
IA1
Carbon Emissions for Indian Scenarios
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
Stabilization to 2Stabilization to 2O O C from LCS Scenario C from LCS Scenario
20502000 2006
1284
Mill
ion
Ton
of C
O2
1032
4057 2050 Base Scenario
LCS Emission: 1217
20 C Stabilization: 1069
Electricity (Supply + T&D Efficiency)
Buildings (Materials/Design)
Transport (Modal shift)
Material substitutions
Renewable Energy
Reduced ConsumptionRecycling
745
384
328
274207
90
102
265
Device Efficiency
2988Total CO2 Mitigation
Mitigation in LCS(in 2050)
173
272Urban Planning
Transport Infrastructure148CCS
Energy and Climate Change Mitigation in India: Development, Technologies and Stabilization
ConclusionsConclusions
High Growth Asian Developing Economies require sophisticated representation of drivers in New Scenarios
Base Case Projections for India will require significant mitigation even in low growth scenarios
Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenario assuming technology/institutional innovations and win-win (co-benefit) opportunities can deliver substantial low cost mitigation
Even low emissions scenarios (including LCS scenario) would require exclusive carbon mitigation interventions for stabilization (e.g. 2O C or 450 ppmv)