climate change mitigation
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change Mitigation. Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences. Climate Change Mitigation. The facts about Global Warming Energy Security Good Practice Examples from UEA - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change MitigationKeith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICEEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation CentreSchool of Environmental Sciences
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Climate Change MitigationThe facts about Global WarmingEnergy SecurityGood Practice Examples from UEANelson Court/Constable TerraceElizabeth FryZICERCHPAdsorption Chilling The future
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Future Global Warming Rates
Chart1
195819581958195819581958315.86195819581958195819581958
195919591959195919591959316.55195919591959195919591959
196019601960196019601960318.18196019601960196019601960
196119611961196119611961318.58196119611961196119611961
196219621962196219621962319.61196219621962196219621962
196319631963196319631963319.74196319631963196319631963
196419641964196419641964320.44196419641964196419641964
196519651965196519651965321.21196519651965196519651965
196619661966196619661966322.4196619661966196619661966
196719671967196719671967322.55196719671967196719671967
196819681968196819681968324.14196819681968196819681968
196919691969196919691969325.89196919691969196919691969
197019701970197019701970326.35197019701970197019701970
197119711971197119711971327.37197119711971197119711971
197219721972197219721972328.05197219721972197219721972
197319731973197319731973330.87197319731973197319731973
197419741974197419741974331.18197419741974197419741974
197519751975197519751975331.91197519751975197519751975
197619761976197619761976333.05197619761976197619761976
197719771977197719771977334.93197719771977197719771977
197819781978197819781978336.54197819781978197819781978
197919791979197919791979337.73197919791979197919791979
198019801980198019801980339.56198019801980198019801980
198119811981198119811981340.49198119811981198119811981
198219821982198219821982342.06198219821982198219821982
198319831983198319831983343.99198319831983198319831983
198419841984198419841984345.4198419841984198419841984
198519851985198519851985346.56198519851985198519851985
198619861986198619861986347.94198619861986198619861986
198719871987198719871987349.52198719871987198719871987
198819881988198819881988352.39198819881988198819881988
198919891989198919891989353.9198919891989198919891989
199019901990199019901990354.82199019901990199019901990
199119911991199119911991356.17199119911991199119911991
199219921992199219921992357.03199219921992199219921992
199319931993199319931993357.57199319931993199319931993
199419941994199419941994359.55199419941994199419941994
199519951995199519951995361.9199519951995199519951995
199619961996199619961996363.65199619961996199619961996
199719971997199719971997364.47199719971997199719971997
199819981998199819981998367.64199819981998199819981998
199919991999199919991999369.25199919991999199919991999
200020002000200020002000370.04200020002000200020002000
200120012001200120012001371.48200120012001200120012001
200220022002200220022002373.87200220022002200220022002
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Annual
(ppm)
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
Sheet1
Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit
1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99
1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316
1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91
1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63
1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46
1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02
1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52
1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09
1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34
1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13
1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11
1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6
1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65
1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32
1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52
1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61
1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29
1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16
1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18
1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88
1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52
1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89
1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67
1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95
1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09
1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75
1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44
1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86
1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14
1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99
1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44
1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94
1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19
1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62
1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36
1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1
1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86
1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9
1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58
1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84
1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58
1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28
2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39
2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91
2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93
Sheet1
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Annual
(ppm)
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
hawaii
YearJan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit
1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99
1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316
1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91
1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63
1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46
1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02
1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52
1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09
1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34
1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13
1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11
1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6
1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65
1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32
1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52
1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61
1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29
1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16
1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18
1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88
1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52
1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89
1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67
1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95
1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09
1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75
1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44
1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86
1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14
1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99
1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44
1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94
1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19
1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62
1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36
1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1
1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86
1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9
1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58
1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84
1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58
1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28
2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39
2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91
2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93
Monthly values areexpressed inparts per million (ppm) andreported in the 1999SIO manometricmole
fraction scale. The monthly values have beenadjusted to the 15thof eachmonth.Missing values are
denoted by-99.99.The "annual"averageis thearithmetic mean of the twelve monthly values. Inyears
withone ortwo missing monthlyvalues,annualvalueswere calculated by substituting afit value
(4-harmonics withgain factor and spline) forthat month andthen averaging the twelve monthlyvalues.
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I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems
Reasons for Concern I II III IV VIIRisks from Extreme Climatic EventsIIIDistribution of ImpactsIVAggregate ImpactsVRisks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities
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Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions.20 year growth in demand1.8-2% per annum2.2% in 2003
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods10. Difficult Choices Ahead
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
Sheet1
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet2
Sheet3
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
-
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewableTransport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?Hydrogen????
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
-
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - RenewablePelamis: 750 kW device installed August 2004: OrkneyOperated for 10 days has been at Lyness, Hoy since September
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barragesunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costedTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
-
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycost in 2020Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2pOn Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off Shore25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3pOff shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3pHydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ pPhotovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8pWave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costedTidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if thenGeothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
MBD000215D4.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply after 2050Projected costs in 2020
On shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now and cost effective~ 2p
Off Shore Wind25-50%Technical developments needed- research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20 000 on shore.3 - 5 p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%Available but much research needed to bring down costsgreater than 10p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%Available - research needed in some area - competition with crops for petrol/diesel substitutes2.5 - 4 p
Wave/ Tidal Stream~100%Technology limited - extensive development unlike before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages~10%Technology available, costly, major environmental problems, unavailable before 2015 - 2020not costed in Energy Review
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2040+
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD003F21A7.xls
Sheet1
Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%Available for exploitation now~2 p
Off Shore Wind25-50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore3 - 5p
Hydro5%Technically mature but limited potential2.5-3p
Photovoltaic50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+p
Energy Crops/ Biomass? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4p
Wave/ Tidal Stream100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD000AB3BF.xls
Sheet1
26.28
potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
Gas CCGT1.8 - 2.4pavailable now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 80+% (France)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionnot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration
On Shore Wind2.5 - 3p~25%available now for commercial exploiation~ 2p
Off shore wind4 - 5p25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5p
Hydro3 - 4p5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic12 - 16p50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops5 - 8p100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream6 -8p100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages?10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermal?unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
Sheet2
potential contribution to Electricity Supply in 2020costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade~ 2p +
nuclear fission (long term)0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusionunavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"Traditional Coal falling rapidly - coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration2.5 - 3.5p
Sheet3
Ultimate potential contribution to Electricity Supplycosts in 2020
On Shore Wind~25%available now for commercial exploitation~ 2p
Off shore wind25 - 50%some technical development needed - research to reduce costs.~2.5 - 3p
Hydro5%technically mature, but limited potential2.5 - 3p
Photovoltaic50%available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly10+ p
Energy Crops100% +available, but research needed in some areas2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream100% +techology limited - extensive development unlikely before 20204 - 8p
Tidal Barrages10 - 20%technology available but unlikely without Government interventionnot costed
Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then
-
Our Choices: They are difficultDo we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass.If our answer is NODo we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantlyunless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikelyIf our answer to coal is NODo we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
-
Our Choices: They are difficultIf our answer is YESBy 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global WarmingDo we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
-
Our Choices: They are difficult
A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security[it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak]A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark.
Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines.
Renewable generation is less prone to major interruptionBUT:Arent Renewables unreliable? we need secure supply
-
Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology?The Government ResponseLegislative Barriers
-
Government ResponseEnergy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken)
There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.- Energy White Paper: February 2003
-
UK Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3%Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh Revision of Building Regulations brought forwardEU Biofuels Directive for Transport2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004.
-
The CRed ambitionTo engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025
Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference?
Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else?
Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf?
exemplar for the world
-
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?5 hot air balloons per person per year.4 million each year for NorfolkOn average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
-
Some facts:A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO2 a yearStandby on television > 60 kg per yearFilling up with petrol (~30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon)How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
-
How to use your to beat global warming University aims to shame ministers into tougher action Ian Sample, science correspondent - Wednesday August 27, 2003 A group of scientists in East Anglia has launched an ambitious campaign to tackle the threat of global warming in an effort to shame ministers into stronger action on climate change. The task they have set themselves is formidable: to slash the region's emissions of carbon dioxide in half the time the government believes is possible. At first glance, the project, known as Cred, for carbon reduction, might easily be dismissed as well-meaning nonsense. But the team behind it, Keith Tovey and his colleagues at the University of East Anglia, belong to the most prestigious env