emissions mitigation and climate stabilization · zworking group ii: impacts, adaptation and...

PNNL-SA-51961

Emissions Mitigation and Climate Stabilization

Inside the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:Science, Policy and Politics

Jae EdmondsApril 22, 2008

2

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Thanks to Princeton University for the invitation to speak on Earth Day.Specifically to Elena Shevliakova for her persistence.

Thanks to the sponsors of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program (GTSP) for research support.

3

The IPCCThe IPCCThe Fourth Assessment Report was completed in 2007.

Working Group I: The Physical Science BasisWorking Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityWorking Group III: Mitigation of Climate ChangeSynthesis Report

It is an impressive work.

While this series of lectures is entitled, “Inside the IPCC”, my presentation will be a more personal assessment of some key findings regarding emissions mitigation and long-term stabilization.

If you are interested in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), go to the IPCC web site:

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm

4

Me and the IPCCMe and the IPCCVillach 1985 (WMO, UNEP, ICSU)—lead to the IPCC and to the Toronto Climate Conference1st Assessment

Working Group III—the Response Strategies Working Group2nd Assessment

Working Group II—Impacts, Adaptation and MitigationWorking Group III—Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change

3rd AssessmentWorking Group III—Chapters 8, 10, and the SPM

4th AssessmentWorking group III—Chapter 2, and the Technology “cross-cutting theme” co-anchor. (1 of 168 lead authors).

5th Assessment chartered April 10, 2008 (due 2013 [WG I], 2014 [WGII & WGIII])

5

Some Key Points From TodaySome Key Points From Today1. Stabilization of CO2 concentrations even below present levels is

feasible.2. Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 means fundamental change

to the global energy system.3. Stabilization means a value of carbon—and one that rises over

time.4. The value of carbon needs to be applied to ALL carbon—not just

the “big emitters”.5. Limiting GHG concentrations to low levels means rapid accession

by virtually every major emitter nation.6. The challenge of scale is huge!7. CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) could be a major new technology

in a climate constrained world.8. Biotechnology is a complex, but potentially important component

addressing climate change.9. End-use energy technologies set both the scale and the character

of the global energy system.10. Investing in energy technology development and basic science

are important parts of the solution.

6

A Note on UnitsCO2 Versus C

A Note on UnitsCO2 Versus C

1 ton C = 44/12 tons of CO2

= 32/3 tons of CO2

= ~4 tons of CO2

$1/ton CO2= $32/3 tons of C= ~$4 tons of C

Both appear in the literature.This presentation used tons of carbon.

7

STABILIZATION

8

Background: Stabilization of CO2concentrations—NOT emissions

Background: Stabilization of CO2concentrations—NOT emissions

Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at any level means that global, CO2 emissions must peak and then decline forever.

-

5

10

15

20

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300

Glo

bal F

ossi

l Fue

l Car

bon

Em

issi

ons

Gig

aton

s pe

r Yea

r

Historical EmissionsGTSP_750GTSP_650GTSP_550GTSP_450GTSP Reference Case

Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions

Historic & 2005 to 2100

1750-2005 300 GtC

GTSP Ref 1430 GtC

750 ppm 1200 GtC

650 ppm 1040 GtC

550 ppm 862 GtC

450 ppm 480 GtC

9

Stabilization means a value of carbon—and one that rises over time

Stabilization means a value of carbon—and one that rises over time

Price of carbon should start low and rise steadily to minimize society’s costs.Eventually all nations and economic sectors need to be covered as the atmosphere is indifferent as to the source of CO2emissions.The response to this escalating price of carbon will vary across economic sectors and regions.

Global Value of Carbon

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/to

nne

(200

0$)

450 ppm stabilization550 ppm stabilization650 ppm stabilization750 ppm stabilization

$102/tC

$19/tC$10/tC$4/tC

10

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ/

year

.

FutureHistory

Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy

system

Stabilizing CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy

system

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ/

year

.

.

FutureHistory

Oil Oil + CCSNatural Gas Natural Gas + CCSCoal Coal + CCSBiomass Energy Nuclear EnergyNon-Biomass Renewable Energy End-use Energy

Preindustrial CO2Concentration

~280 ppm

Present CO2Concentration

~380 ppm

Present CO2Concentration

~380 ppm

2100 CO2Concentration

~740 ppm

2100 CO2Concentration

~550 ppmHistory and Reference Case Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm

11

DELAYED EMISSIONS MITIGATION

12

Limiting GHG concentrations to low levels means rapid accession by virtually everyone.Limiting GHG concentrations to low levels

means rapid accession by virtually everyone.

58

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

450 ppm

Inde

x 55

0 pp

m 2

020

pric

e =

1.0

IdealParallel Regimes 2020 AccessionParallel Regimes 2035 AccessionParallel Regimes 2050 Accession

N/A

Impossible with post 2050 Non-Annex 1 accession

Year 2020 USA carbon prices for different international regimes: 450 and 550 ppm

1.0 1.2 1.4 2.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

550 ppm

Inde

x 55

0 pp

m 2

020

pric

e =

1.0

IdealParallel Regimes 2020 AccessionParallel Regimes 2035 AccessionParallel Regimes 2050 Accession

13

Year 2020 Annex I emissions mitigation, relative to 2005, for different accession

assumptions

Year 2020 Annex I emissions mitigation, relative to 2005, for different accession

assumptions

2020 2050

450 ppm

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Set 3: 1st Accession 2050-65Set 3: 1st Accession 2035-50Set 3: 1st Accession 2020-35Set 1: 450 ppm N

ot Possible

Not P

ossible

14

CO2 CAPTURE & STORAGE

15

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf

http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/docs/ccs_report.pdf

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf

http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp/docs/ccs_report.pdf

http://www.gcrio.org/orders/product_info.php?cPath=21&products_id=134&osCsid=67kjbi0321l55gpfcn49bc42m3

16

For stabilization scenarios from 450-750ppmv, most integrated assessment models show a demand for no more than 600 GtC (2,220 GtCO2) storage over the course of this century.

Published estimates of potential storage capacity place the potential global geologic CO2 storage capacity at approximately 3,000 GtC (11,000 GtCO2).

A broad portfolio of carbon management technologies will be needed to fulfill the UNFCCC stabilization goal.

Cumulative Global CO2Storage Demand

2000-2100

Cumulative Global CO2Storage Demand

2000-2100

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

MaximumPotentialStorage

A1g 450ppm

A1g 550ppm

A1g 650ppm

A1g 750ppm

GTSP 450 GTSP 550 GTSP 650 GTSP 750

PgC

Unminable CoalDepleted Oil ReservoirsDepleted Gas ReservoirsDeep Saline Reservoirs Off ShoreDeep Saline Reservoirs On Shore

17

Global CO2 Storage CapacityA Very Heterogeneous Natural Resource

Global CO2 Storage CapacityA Very Heterogeneous Natural Resource

•~8100 Large CO2 Point Sources

• 14.9 GtCO2/year

•>60% of all global anthropogenic CO2emissions

•Potentially 11,000 GtCO2 of available storage capacity

•US, Canada and Australia likely have sufficient CO2storage capacity for this century

•Japan and Korea’s ability to continue using fossil fuels likely constrained by relatively small domestic storage reservoir capacity

18

Global CO2 Storage CapacityA Heterogeneous Natural Resource

Global CO2 Storage CapacityA Heterogeneous Natural Resource

Ratio of Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2095 to Maximum Potential Geologic Storage Capacity by Region

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

USA

Canada

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Former Soviet Union

Australia_NZ

Japan

Korea

China

India

Southeast Asia

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

19

Regionally unlimited CCS assumed available, 550 ppm

Regionally limited CCS available550 ppm

Composition of Power Generation in Japan, 2095

Composition of Power Generation in Japan, 2095

NuclearHydro

Biomass

NGCC with CCS

Oil with CCS

Coal

Coal with CCS

PV

Oil

NGCC

Wind

Nuclear

Wind

NGCCOil

PV

Coal with CCS

Coal

Oil with CCS

NGCC with CCS

BiomassHydro

20

Value of CCSValue of CCS

Calculated as the difference between cost without CCS and CCS at

10%, 50% and 100% of potential

geologic storage available.

Fraction of Maximum Potential Storage Capacity Available

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Trill

ions

of 1

990

US

$ D

isco

unte

d to

200

5450 ppm550 ppm650 ppm

21

Coal Supply With And Without CCS

Coal Supply With And Without CCS

The availability of CO2 capture and storage technology in a world with increasing carbon values increases coal use.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Year

EJ

REF450ppm + CCS450ppm no CCS550ppm + CCS550ppm no CCS

22

The Challenge of Scale—near term

The Challenge of Scale—near term

CO2 Storage—550 ppm Stabilization Case

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Monitored CO2 Storage Today 2020 (550 ppm)

Mill

ions

of T

ons

of C

arbo

n pe

r Y

ear

23

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Monitored CO2Storage Today

2020 (550 ppm) 2050 (550 ppm) 2095 (550 ppm)

Mill

ions

of T

ons

of C

arbo

n pe

r Ye

ar

In the mid- and long-term the challenge grows

In the mid- and long-term the challenge grows

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Monitored CO2 Storage Today 2020 (550 ppm)

Mill

ions

of T

ons

of C

arbo

n pe

r Yea

r CO2 Storage Rate Level 2 (~550 ppm)

24

BIOENERGY

25

Land use and land cover change in stabilization scenarios

Land use and land cover change in stabilization scenarios

Demands for land for agriculture, pasture, forest products and other services is changing the surface of the Earth.Bioenergy is potentially a large component of the global energy system energy system in stabilization scenarios.

Its emergence as the largest human activity on the planet would have far-reaching implications for the carbon cycle.

Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

bal P

rimar

y E

nerg

y 18

50-2

100

(Exa

joul

es)

.

FutureHistory

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Unmanaged Ecosystems

Managed Forests

Crop Land

PastureLand

BioEnergy

26

Bio is DifferentBio is Different

Biotechnology’s potential contributions to addressing climate change includes both

Reducing the cost of emissions mitigation, andReducing the impact of climate change.

Biologically derived fuels are young hydrocarbons.Because the carbon contained in those fuels was obtained from the atmosphere recently, subsequent oxidation and emission leaves the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere essentially unchanged.In contrast the carbon contained in fossil fuels was removed from the atmosphere millions of years before the present and its reintroduction to the atmosphere.

This is not to say that bioenergy has no consequences for emissions.

Induced land-use change emissionsRelated emissions, e.g. N2O

27

All the carbon counts to the carbon cycle

All the carbon counts to the carbon cycle

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GTC

/Yea

r

450 ppm NoCarbon Tax

450 ppm

550 ppm

650 ppm

750 ppm

GTSPReference

•Not just electricity•Terrestrial carbon emissions

•All regions eventually need to join

28

Multiple Energy BiotechnologiesMultiple Energy Biotechnologies

Biotechnology can provide a broad suite of energy services.

It can produce electricity;It can fuel transportation

Biofuels,Biofuel feedstock for H2,Direct production of H2.

It can capture and store carbon, e.g. soil carbon.It can produce energy with NEGATIVE CO2emissions if combined with CO2 capture and storage technology!

29

Soil Carbon in the Context of Stabilization

Soil Carbon in the Context of Stabilization

Soil carbon alone can be an important element in a larger portfolio to address climate change.

It could be deployed rapidly.It has low economic cost.Monitoring and verification are important issues.

The economic value depends on many factors, but could be denominated in Trillions of PD USD.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

TgC

/y

Allowable Emissions

Other Mitigatiton

Soil Carbon

30

The Rate of Crop ProductivityThe Rate of Crop Productivity

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Mill

ions

of t

ons

of c

arbo

n pe

r yea

r

MiniCAM B2 550 0.0% Ag Productivity CC&DMiniCAM B2 550 0.5% Ag Productivity CC&DMiniCAM B2 550 1.5% Ag Productivity CC&D

Land-use and land-use change emissions in a B2 scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Bioenergy production with a 550 ppm CO2Without agricultural productivity growth

Land-use change emissions with various rates of assumed future agricultural

crop productivity growth

Bioenergy cropsManaged forestsPastures

Crops

Unmangedecosystems

Land allocation

31

The Reference Case

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year

Bio

mas

s C

onsu

mpt

ion

(EJ)

Biomass Energy Uses When Bioenergy Cannot Be Used With CCS to Produce

Electricity

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year

Bio

mas

s C

onsu

mpt

ion

(EJ)

The Flexible Role of BioenergyThe Flexible Role of Bioenergy

Other

Bio Liquids

Bio Electricity

Key

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption

550 ppm Stabilization

32

Oil Supply—GlobalOil Supply—Global

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

Unconventional Oil Conventional OilBiomass Liquids Coal LiquifactionGas to Liquids

Reference

Stabilization extends the life of conventional oil, reduces shale oil production, eliminates coal liquefaction and promotes bioenergy.

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ/y

Unconventional Oil Conventional OilBiomass Liquids Coal LiquifactionGas to Liquids

550 ppm CO2

33

Biomass Energy Uses When Bioenergy Can Be Used in Combination With CCS to

Produce Electricity

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year

Bio

mas

s C

onsu

mpt

ion

(EJ)

Biofuels with CCSBiofuels with CCS

Bio with CCS actually shrinks the amount of land devoted to bioenergy.

Other

Bio Liquids

Bio Electricity

Bio Electricity with CCS

Key

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption

34

Value of Bioenergy with CCSValue of Bioenergy with CCS

Bioenergy with CCS could be one of the most powerful technologies in a stabilization regime intended to stabilize CO2 concentrations at low levels.

GHG Costs as % Share of GDP(both are present discounted)

1965 $/TC

683 $/TC

725 $/TC

147 $/TC

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

400 450 500 550 600 650 700

CO2 Stabilization Target (ppmv)

Pol

icy

Cos

t (as

frac

tion

of G

DP

)

No SequestrationFF SequestrationFF + Biomass Sequestration

35

A Note on Overshoot ScenariosA Note on Overshoot Scenarios

The long-term (1000 years) distribution of net fossil fuel and terrestrial carbon emissions between the atmosphere and the oceans.

Not to exceed 450 ppm stabilization allows 480PgC cumulative 2005 to 2100.Cumulative emissions over 1000 years for 450 ppm = 1653 PgC.Cumulative emissions for 350 ppm for 1000 years = 808 PgC.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Cum

ulat

ive

Emis

sion

s fro

m P

rese

nt (P

gC)

1300 PPM

Cumulative EmissionsAtmosphere

36

END-USE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES

37

The response to this escalating price of carbon will vary across economic sectors and regions.

The response to this escalating price of carbon will vary across economic sectors and regions.

Global Fossil Fuel CO2 EmissionsReference Case

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

GtC

/yr

Buildings IndustryElectricity HydrogenNatural Gas Liquids ProductionTransportation

Stabilization changes the sources of fossil CO2 emissions. Utility emissions drop to virtually zero. Transportation emissions dominate.

Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions550 ppm Stabilization

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

GtC

/yr

Buildings IndustryElectricity HydrogenNatural Gas Liquids ProductionTransportation

38

End-use Energy Technologies

End-use Energy Technologies

Three sectorsBuildingsIndustryTransportation

Buildings 550 ppm

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Fuel SubstitutionEnergy Use Reductions

Emissions reductions come from two sources

Energy efficiency improvementsFuel substitution

Transportation 550 ppm

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Fuel SubstitutionEnergy Use Reductions

39

ElectrificationElectrification

The world is electrifying.Emissions mitigation increases the relative role of electricity.Electricity prices fall relative to fossil fuel prices.

Average Electricity Price Relative to Oil Price

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Inde

x 20

05=1

.

GTSP 450GTSP 550GTSP 650GTSP 750GTSP Reference

Electricity as a Percentage of Total Final Energy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

GTSP 450GTSP 550GTSP 650GTSP 750GTSP Reference

40

All the Carbon CountsAll the Carbon CountsThe economic cost of taxing power generation

emissions only

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Carbon Tax Elec Power only Equivalent Reduction AllSectors

Trill

ion

2003

US

D

Shortcut to papers & presentations\2005 morita Special Issue--Electrification paper\EPRI_Electricty_Sector_Targeted_Tax2

41

Energy Technology,

R&D and Science

42

Future projections of energy use and CO2 emissions assume significant technological progress in their no-

climate-policy, business-as-usual cases

Future projections of energy use and CO2 emissions assume significant technological progress in their no-

climate-policy, business-as-usual cases

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

ppm

v

.

2005 TechnologyGTSPII Reference550 ppmv Constraintpre-Industrial

CO2 Concentration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

GtC

/yea

r .

2005 TechnologyGTSPII Reference550 ppmv Constraint

Carbon Emissions

43

6. Investing in basic science is an important part of the solution

6. Investing in basic science is an important part of the solution

Emissions Mitigation 2005 to 2050 and 2050 to 2095

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

750 ppm 650 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm

2005 to 2050 2050 to 2095

The time scale of emissions mitigation is a century or more. Energy technology will be needed to help control emissions in the NEAR-, MID-, and Long-term to address climate change.Investments in basic scientific research in the first half of the 21st century can be transformed into energy technologies that can become a major part of the global energy system in the second half of the century.

44

MINIMIZING THE COST OF STABILIZATION

45

Five Characteristics of Economically Efficient Stabilization

Five Characteristics of Economically Efficient Stabilization

1. Stabilization requires that greenhouse gases have a price—implicit or explicit.

2. The price of a greenhouse gas should be the same for a gas irrespective of the emissions source.

3. The price of a greenhouse gas should rise—NOT fall—with time.

4. Decision makers should be able to form a reasonable expectation that the price will rise regularly.

5. Increase R&D, energy-climate R&D in the near-and mid-terms, basic science for the long term.

46

1. Stabilization requires that greenhouse gases have a price—

implicit or explicit.

1. Stabilization requires that greenhouse gases have a price—

implicit or explicit.

Climate is a Public Good You cannot solve a public goods problem with better private decisions alone.

Public goods problems require public intervention.Markets are needed to communicate the public interest to private decision makers.

A price of carbon should reflect the social value of carbon.

47

2. The price of carbon should rise at the rate of interest plus the rate of removal from the atmosphere.

2. The price of carbon should rise at the rate of interest plus the rate of removal from the atmosphere.

Climate change is a stock pollutant problem, NOT a flow pollutant.Price of carbon should start low and rise steadily to minimize society’s costs.Eventually all nations and economic sectors need to be covered as the atmosphere is indifferent as to the source of CO2emissions.

Global Value of Carbon

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$/to

nne

(200

0$)

450 ppm stabilization550 ppm stabilization650 ppm stabilization750 ppm stabilization

$102/tC

$19/tC$10/tC$4/tC

48

3. The price of a greenhouse gas should be the independent of the emissions

source.

3. The price of a greenhouse gas should be the independent of the emissions

source.

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GTC

/Yea

r

450 ppm NoCarbon Tax

450 ppm

550 ppm

650 ppm

750 ppm

GTSPReference

•Not just electricity•Terrestrial carbon emissions

•All regions eventually need to join

49

4. Decision makers should be able to form a reasonable expectation that the price

will rise at a regular rate of doubling.

4. Decision makers should be able to form a reasonable expectation that the price

will rise at a regular rate of doubling.The time when low-emission technologies enter into operation is dramatically accelerated when one of the cost elements (carbon emissions) is growing more rapidly than the rate of interest.

E.g. CCS will come into use long before the price of carbon reaches the point at which it would be sufficient to deploy the technology if it were held constant.

Creating an expectation that carbon prices will double regularly has the side effect of lowering the carbon price needed to achieve a given emissions mitigation.Mechanisms exist to communicate appropriate expectation.

However, they require policies that extend long into the future—even if they include mechanisms for regular review and pegging of theprice.E.g. “safety valve” for cap and trade where the SV value escalates at the proper rate.

50

5. Increase R&D, energy-climate R&D in the near-& mid-terms, basic science for the long term.

5. Increase R&D, energy-climate R&D in the near-& mid-terms, basic science for the long term.

Emissions Mitigation 2005 to 2050 and 2050 to 2095

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

750 ppm 650 ppm 550 ppm 450 ppm

2005 to 2050 2050 to 2095

The time scale of emissions mitigation is a century or more. Energy technology will be needed to help control emissions in the NEAR-, MID-, and Long-term to address climate change.Investments in basic scientific research in the first half of the 21st century can be transformed into energy technologies that can become a major part of the global energy system in the second half of the century.

51

SummarySummary1. Stabilization of CO2 concentrations even below present levels is

feasible.2. Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 means fundamental change

to the global energy system.3. Stabilization means a value of carbon—and one that rises over

time.4. The value of carbon needs to be applied to ALL carbon—not just

the “big emitters”.5. Limiting GHG concentrations to low levels means rapid accession

by virtually every major emitter nation.6. The challenge of scale is huge!7. CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) could be a major new technology

in a climate constrained world.8. Biotechnology is a complex, but potentially important component

addressing climate change.9. End-use energy technologies set both the scale and the character

of the global energy system.10. Investing in energy technology development and basic science

are important parts of the solution.

52

The GTSP ReportThe GTSP ReportCopies of the Report are Available upon request

And on the Web

http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp

http://www.pnl.gov/gtsp

BACK UP SLIDES

54

CO2 CAPTURE & STORAGE

Regional

55

A Large CO2 Storage Resource and a Large Potential Demand for CO2 Storage Across a

Number of Economic Sectors

2,730 GtCO2 in deep saline formations (DSF) with perhaps close to another 900 GtCO2 in offshore DSFs240 Gt CO2 in on-shore saline filled basalt formations 35 GtCO2 in depleted gas fields30 GtCO2 in deep unmineable coal seams with potential for enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery12 GtCO2 in depleted oil fields with potential for enhanced oil recovery (EOR)

• 1,053 electric power plants • 259 natural gas processing

facilities• 126 petroleum refineries • 44 iron & steel foundries• 105 cement kilns

• 38 ethylene plants• 30 hydrogen production • 19 ammonia refineries• 34 ethanol production plants• 7 ethylene oxide plants

1,715 Large Sources (100+ ktCO2/yr) with Total Annual Emissions = 2.9 GtCO2

3,900+ GtCO2 Capacity within 230 Candidate Geologic CO2 Storage Reservoirs

56

“CCS” not one homogeneous technology and not a homogenous market


0 20 40 60 80 100

Gas ProcessingPlants

Cement Plants

Refineries

Iron / SteelFacilities

Power PlantsPre-Combustion

Power PlantsPost-Combustion

Cost of Capture ($/tonne)

28-49

20-33

13-53

55-80

55-59

9-10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Gas ProcessingPlants

Cement Plants

Refineries

Iron / SteelFacilities

Power PlantsPre-Combustion

Power PlantsPost-Combustion

Cost of Capture ($/tonne)

28-49

20-33

13-53

55-80

55-59

9-10

57



($20)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

CO2 Captured and Stored (MtCO2)

Net

CC

S C

ost

($/tC

O2)

2

10

9

876

5

4

3

1

The Net Cost of Employing CCS within the United States - Current Sources and Technology

(8) Smaller coal-fired power plant / nearby (<25 miles) deep saline basalt formation


(7) Iron & steel plant / nearby (<10 miles) deep saline formation


(6) Coal-fired power plant / moderately distant (<50 miles) depleted gas field


(5) Large, coal-fired power plant / nearby (<25 miles) deep saline formation


(4) High purity hydrogen production facility / nearby (<25 miles) depleted gas field


(3) Large, coal-fired power plant / nearby (<10 miles) ECBM opportunity


(2) High purity natural gas processing facility / moderately distant (~50 miles) EOR opportunity


(1) High purity ammonia plant / nearby (<10 miles) EOR opportunity


(10) Gas-fired power plant / distant (>50 miles) deep saline formation


(9) Cement plant / distant (>50 miles) deep saline formation


($20)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Example CCS Cost Pair

Cos

t, $/

tCO

2

Capture Compression Transport Injection

58

Take Home MessagesCCS

Take Home MessagesCCS

This inherent heterogeneity – both in terms of candidate CO2 storage reservoirs and the energy and industrial facilities that might adopt CCS systems to reduce their emissions – is an important aspect of understanding how CCS technologies will deploy.

The vast majority of CCS deployment will be driven by a carbon tax or some other explicit disincentive for the venting of CO2 to the atmosphere. Put another way, the negative cost CCS opportunities are very small and are already likely being exploited by the marketplace.

While CCS technologies are likely to deploy first in non-power markets, if CCS is to make a large contribution to addressing climate change it must be effectively integrated with large coal-fired electricity and H2 production.

($20)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500


Net C

CS C

ost

($/tC

O2)

2

10

9

876

5

4

3

1






















($20)

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500


Net C

CS C

ost

($/tC

O2)

2

10

9

876

5

4

3

1






















59

The IPCCThe IPCCGrew out of a series of meetings involving UNEP, the WMO, and ICSU (International Council for Science [originally International Council of Scientific Unions])

1979 “World Climate Conference”1985 Villach “Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts”1988 the IPCC was established by the WMO and UNEP

MandateThe IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change. The IPCC does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

emissions mitigation and climate stabilization · zworking group ii: impacts, adaptation and...

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