Regional Climate Change Scenario Regional Climate Change Scenario supporting activities for studies on supporting activities for studies on

detection, impacts assessments and detection, impacts assessments and mitigation mitigation

Jose A. MarengoJose A. MarengoClimate Studies Group Climate Studies Group

CPTEC/INPECPTEC/INPESão Paulo, BrazilSão Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

-The release of the IPCC Third Assessment Report has brought to attention the possible impacts of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in climate change in the world, and in South America these changes are beside the possible effect of regional deforestation on climate. -New models and new developments have allowed some new insight on climate change scenarios in Latin America, as compared to the SAR-IPCC released in 1996-There is a need for climate change scenarios downscaled in space (regional climate change) and time (extreme events). -There is a need for “common criteria” to define and to analyze extremes from different AIACC projects, so we can analyzed all of them for the entire LAC region

Current situation:

-Concern on regional and federal governments about possible impacts of climate change at regional levels on sectors such as natural ecossistems, agriculture, water resources availability, human health, etc.

-Current projections of climate change scenarios for century XXIClimate models from I PCC TAR (2001)Need for a regional details of climate predictiondownscaling. Need for assessments on extreme events.

-One question: How climate change will affect human activities, bidiversity and natural ecosystems and due to potential climate change?.

-Major objective: To know and better understand patterns of climate change and its impacts on human activities, biodiversity and natural ecosystems, in the context of impacts of climate change and the development of policies and strategies for conservation and management of natural resources and human activities:

-Development of regional modeling/statistical downscaling capacity for climate change scenarios at CPTEC-Brazil.

OBJECTIVES

1-Characterization of biodiversity and biomes distribution, water resources availability, agriculture, health on present times;

2-Characterization of present climate (observations, statistics, projections, socio-economic data, model climatology of present climates);

3-Assessments of climate change scenarios at global and regional scales, using technique of downscaling, and its impacts on human activities and natural ecosystems. This should be linked to the development and implementation of technical capacity and formation of humam resouces for studies and monitoring.

Uncertainties in future climate projections for Brazildifferences among climate modelslack of regional climate change projectionneed for a strategy for climate change studies and developing of regional climate modeling of climate change.

Air temperature trends 1961-2010 (IPCC SRES)

Global

Brazil

An

om

aly

(C

)A

nom

aly

(C

)

Air

tem

pera

ture

(C

)A

ir t

em

pera

ture

(C

)

B1

B2

A1

A2

A2

A1

B2B1

Changes in temperature and precipitation (mean 1961-90)For 2050, scenarios B2-low e A2-high. Each dot representsDifferent models, and the error bars represent natural climate variability (Carter and Hulme 2000)

Interdecadal rainfall variability: CRU Rainfall anomalies during 1929-45, 1946-75 and 1976-98, using 1961-90 nas reference period. Red/Blue represent negative/positive anomalies. Color bar is show below the panels (Marengo. 2003).

Rainfall anomalies CRU (mm/day) Decade of 1960’s Decade of 1990’s

Interdecadal temperature variability: CRU Temperature anomalies during 1929-45, 1946-75 and 1976-98, using 1961-90 nas reference period. Red/Blue represent positive/positive anomalies. Color bar is show below the panels (Marengo 2003).

Changes in temperature (C )Ch

an

ges in

pre

cip

itat i

on

(m

m/ d

ay)

-1 0 +1 +2 +3

+1 +

0.5

0 -0

.5 -1

-1.5

PL94a

DeforestationDeforestation+2C02

SUD90

WARMER/DRIER

NEP99

LR93

SHU96

LR97COS20

DHS88

LW89

LE96

SHN91

SUD96

HS93

PL94bMAN96

HAH97

DK92

HD95

Scatter Plot of changes in temperature and precipitation due to deforestation in the Amazon basin (from modeling experiments: Marengo and Nobre 2001, D’Almeida 2002)

MediumMediumPredictabilityPredictability

Low Predictability

Higher predictability Higher predictability

Medium predictability

Medium predictability

Climate Predictability in South America (for rainfall)

DJF rainfall (color) and rainfall anomalies (numbers) Projections are from the HadCM3.

2020 2050 2080

A2

B2

2020 2050 2080

A2

B2

SON air temperatures (color) and air temperature anomalies (numbers) Projections are from the HadCM3.

CCCMA-A2-2020 CSIRO-A2-2020 ECHAM4-A2-2020 NCAR-A2-2020

CCCMA-B2-2020 CSIRO-B2-2020 ECHAM4-B2-2020 NCAR-B2-2020

 

DJF Rainfall anomalies (colors) and anomalies (numbers)

CCCMA-A2-2020 CSIRO-A2-2020 ECHAM4-A2-2020 NCARA2-2020

CCCMA-B2-2020 CSIRO-B2-2020 ECHAM4-B2-2020 NCARB2-2020

 

DJF Air temperature (colors) and anomalies (numbers)

B2- HadCM3 rainfall (2020)

A2- HadCM3 rainfall (2020)

DJF MAM JJA SON

DJF MAM JJA SON

B2- HadCM3 Air temperature (2020)

A2- HadCM3 air temperature (2020)

DJF MAM JJA SON

DJF MAM JJA SON

CSIRO A2

CCMa B2

HadCM3 B2

NCAR B2

CCMa A2

ECHAM4 A2

HadCM3 A2

NCAR A2

ECHAM4 B2

CSIRO B2

Air temperature trends in Manaus from A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenarios

ECHAM4 B2

HadCM3 B2

NCAR B2

CSIRO B2

CCMa A2

NCAR A2

HadCM3 A2

ECHAM4 A2

CSIRO A2CSIRO B2

NCAR B2

HadCM3 B2

ECHAM4 B2

CCMa B2

Precipitation trends in Manaus from A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenarios

“Amazon Dieback” Forced by Climate Change?

Vegetation type in South America (Hadley Centre Model with MOSES iterative vegetation scheme

pre-industrial present 2100

NEEDS: -These projections exhibit a degree of uncertainty due the differences between models, since some of them exhibit problems in representing the temporal and spatial distribution of temperature and rainfall.-Global models produce projections with some regional details missing since there is not an availability of downscaled climate change scenarios valid for the different sections of the basinbetter global models.-Need for downscaled climate change scenarios: Regional climate models (dynamic) (up to 10 km) or statistical downscaling. -If regional models are usedneed for “multi model ensemble” using various regional models.-Identify regions with better model skill and higher climate predictabilityreduce uncertainty on climate change simulations

Activities related to climate change to be developed at CPTEC

Paleoclimates and present climate

(mechanisms and feedbacks)

Climate change

(prediction and future scenarios)

Emissions

Concentrations(Carbon CO2, CH4, aerosols..)

Global climate change(temperature, rain, sea level)

Regional details(mountain effects, islands,

valleys..)

Assessments of impacts

Impacts(Natural ecosystems, water

resources)POLICY MAKERS-GOVERNMENT

Dynamic Downscaling: Climate change scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2)

Climate run of the Eta/CPTEC regional model

SRES IPCC scenarios-HadCM3H

Coupling HadCM3-Eta/CPTEC

Validationspredictability assessments model skill assessments

Climate change studies, impacts and vulnerability assessments

Analysis and validation of the HadCM3 climatology

Statistical downscaling

19 vertical levels-atmosphere

20 vertical Levels-soil

2.5lat 3.75

long

1.25 km

1.25 km

300 km

-5km

Global Coupled model HadCM3 of the Hadley Centre

Regional model Eta/CPTEC, 40-10 km, 38 vertical levels

Global and Regional Climate Change?

Present time climate and Hydrology

Climate variability and trends

IPCC Global models

Downscaling using the Eta/CPTEC regional model nested on the global HadCM3H model

Climate modeling

SRES-IPCCScenarios

Regionalized climate change Scenarios

(XXI Century)

Data Bank

Observations climate-hydrology(global and regional)

Paleoclimates

Applications:-Water Resources-Natural ecosystems-Agriculture -Health…

Previous studies (ex. Deforestation)

Meteorological database 20th century

Hydrological database

20th century

Drainage basins

20th century

Climate Hydrology

20th century

Hydroclimate trends

20th century

Validate

Regional

Climate models

21st century

AOGCM

SRES-scenario

s

Primary natural and human biomes in the 20th century

Remote sensing techniques - Other

Database- Fauna- Flora

Biomass21st

century

Indicators

Climatology Hydrology 21st century

Brazil?Choice? Atlas

Government,Private sector

GENERAL METHODOLOGY

Statistical downscaling

Applications

Paleoclimates

Government,Private sector

AIACC

Case study: Case study:

“Impacts of Global Climate Changes on the “Impacts of Global Climate Changes on the Brazilian Ecosystems”Brazilian Ecosystems”

Site of the study region around Salinopolis

Erosion in the inner estuary Erosion on Torotama Island

The RS coastal plain with the Patos-Mirim lagoon system

(a)(b)

Evidence of erosive processes at the central portion of the barrier island. a) Conceição Lighthouse in 1993. b) remains of lighthouse after a 1993 storm surge. The rate of erosion at this site is 2.3 m/year .

Area affected by a 2-m increase in sea level in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil