EIONET/EPA networks Workshop onclimate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation

EEA, 27-28 november 2007

Regional impacts and vulnerabilityThe Mediterranean (Italy)

Franco Desiato, Domenico Gaudioso, Francesca Giordano

APAT – Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici

Primary impacts indicators

(temperature, precipitation, …..)

Medium to long term forecasted change

(i.e. 2071-2100 versus 1961-1990)

of mean temperature, cumulated precipitation,…)

From high-resolution global or regional AOGCM models ….

Temperature change - Southern Europe:

1900-2000 (observed); 2000-2100 (A1B scenario , 11 models)

Cumulated Precipitation change - 21 models ensemble

2080 - 2099 versus 1980 - 1999 Scenario A1B

DJF JJA %

Uncertainty by prediction models

Precipitation anomaly (mm) – Northern Italy - Winter

……..Primary impacts indicators

(temperature, precipitation, …..

Medium to long term forecasted change

BUT ALSO :

Current trends estimate from observations time series

IS NEEDED FOR:

• the knowledge of past/current impacts of climate change

• the continuous, in-progress verification of AOGCM forecasts

• the downscaling: impacts and vulnerability estimates are needed at the local scale

Trend estimates from observations time series

Require time series homogenization:

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

year

°C

hom

original

• WMO WG on Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases;

• COST Action ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach

Mean temperature anomaly over Italy

Italy: 1961-2006 T = +0.94 °C 1980 – 2006 T = +1.54 °C

Global: 1961-2006 T +0.7 °C

Cumulated precipitation anomaly 1961-2006

Northern Italy Central Italy

Southern Italy

Primary impacts EXTREMES indicators

Example: Set of indicators form the WMO CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection:

• Frost days• Summer days• Tropical nights• Cold days, cold nights• Warm days, warm nights• Maximum absolute temperature• Minimum absolute temperature

Tropical nights - Italy

1961-2006 = +12,5 days/year 1978 – 2006 = +21 days/year

• Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean BasinSouthern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water scarcity

• Mountain areasMountain areas, in particular the AlpsAlps, where temperatures increase rapidly leading to widespread melting of snow and ice changing river flows

• Coastal zonesCoastal zones due to sea level rise combined with increased risks for storms.

• Densely populated floodplainsDensely populated floodplains due to increased risks for storms, intense rainfall and flash floods leading to widespread damages to built-up areas and infrastructure.

From the GREEN PAPERGREEN PAPER 4 out of the 6 most vulnerable areasvulnerable areas in Europe concern

Southern Europe and/or the MediterraneanSouthern Europe and/or the Mediterranean:

Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change in Italyin Italy

Sensitivity to desertification

3% High

33% Medium

63% Low

1% Very low

DISMED Project

Desertification degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations (UNCCD).

Areas at high risk: Sardinia, Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata

Flooding risk

Areas at high risk: Pianura Padano-Veneta, Versilia, Fondi and Pontina plains.

1500km out of 8000km at risk of erosion and flooding

Hydro-geological risk

Areas at high risk: 9,8% of the Italian territory- 4,1% floods- 5,2% landslides- 0,5% avalanches

• MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMSMARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS

• WATER RESOURCESWATER RESOURCES

• BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTSBIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS

• AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE

• TOURISMTOURISM

Systems/Sectors of critical impactscritical impacts for Italy

CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION

Sea level: unchanged

Area experiencing erosion and at flooding risk: 1.500 km of low-lying coasts

Coastal plains at risk: 33 Italian coastal plains

FUTURE SCENARIOSFUTURE SCENARIOS

Sea level rise of the Mediterranean Sea up to 38 cm by 2100

Area at flooding risk: 4.500 km2

North: 25,4%; Centre: 5,4%; South: 62,6%; Sardinia: 6,6%

MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMSMARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS

Some example of indicators:

CURRENT SITUATIONCURRENT SITUATION

Glaciers: current glacier retreat in the Alps (-51% km2 during the last 150 years)

Snow cover: reduction of length/quantity of snow

Since 1990 anticipation of spring melt period of 15 days at 2500 m

Po River flow: 391 m3/s (July 2007); historical average value 1.156 m3/s

FUTURE SCENARIOSFUTURE SCENARIOS

Glaciers: glacier retreat between 30% and 70% by 2100

loss of glaciers below 3500 m by 2050

Snow cover: decrease of snow cover duration (several weeks/each °C increase)

Drought events frequency: increase from 1/100 years to 1/50 years or less by 2070

Reduction of alpine rivers flow: up to 80% during the summer period by 2070

WATER RESOURCES

Some example of indicators:

CURRENT SITUATION

Forest area: 10,5 M ha (2005) = 35% national territory –> increasing

Plant species distribution: shift at higher altitudes during the 20th century (0,5 – 4 m/decade)

Plant phenology: mean anticipation of phenological phases (3days/decade)

FUTURE SCENARIOS

Plant species distribution: shift of tree line in alpine areas (100 m)

- 62% of mountain plant species by 2080 (A1 scenario)

Coastal wetlands: - 20% by 2080 (SRES scenarios)

BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS

Some example of indicators:

ITALY ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate ChangeChange

From the Italian National Conference on Climate Change and from preparatory workshops, several indications emerge for the priority actions to be undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea.

By 2008By 2008 the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Land and Sea commits to drafting a national sustainable adaptation and land protection strategynational sustainable adaptation and land protection strategy.

Two important outcomes of the conference:

- The CLIMATE MANIFESTOCLIMATE MANIFESTO

- The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATIONADAPTATION

ITALY ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate ChangeChange

The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION concern:- research and knowledge work - extreme events - energy savings - marine resources- new models of consumption - tourism - water resources - health - agriculture - meteo-climatic early warning - coasts - public awareness- environmental incentives for labour and enterprises

The CLIMATE MANIFESTOCLIMATE MANIFESTO points out the following needs:- development of climate change mitigation policiesmitigation policies - coordinationcoordination of mitigationmitigation measures with adaptationadaptation measures- definition of a National Adaptation Plan to Climate ChangeNational Adaptation Plan to Climate Change- promotion of measures to assist developing countriesdeveloping countries - monitoring of progressmonitoring of progress at regular intervals through the National National

ConferenceConference on CC on CC

SPAIN SPAIN – National Plan for the adaptation to climate change– National Plan for the adaptation to climate change

20042004: previous step, ECCE project “A preliminary general assessment of the impacts in Spain due to the effects of climate change”

02-200602-2006: presentation at National Climate Council, Coordination Commission for Policies on Climate Change, Sectoral Conference of Environment

03-200603-2006: public consultation

07-200607-2006: formal approval at CCPCC

Every 4 yearsEvery 4 years: monitoring and assessment Report of the National Plan of adaptation to climate change, that will guide further developments

FRANCE FRANCE – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate changechange

The French National StrategyFrench National Strategy for the adaptation to for the adaptation to climate changeclimate change has been drafted by the National Observatory for the Effects of Global Warming.

It represents an intermediate step between the scientific outputs and the drafting of an action plan.

November 2006November 2006: approval by the Inter-Ministry Committee for Sustainable Development

Four objectivesFour objectives:

- to assure safetysafety and public healthpublic health

- to limit the increase of inequalities in front of the riskinequalities in front of the risk

- to limit the costs through preventive measurespreventive measures

- to preserve the natural heritagenatural heritage

PORTUGAL PORTUGAL – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures)Adaptation Measures)

AIMAIM: to carry out the first integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in the country.

The work focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical impacts, and is based upon scenarios of future climate produced by climate models.

Impacts on specific sectorsImpacts on specific sectors: fisheries, forestry and biodiversity, human health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones, and energy

SIAM IISIAM II: application of the general methodology of project SIAM at a smaller geographic scale in order to provide responses to decision makers in the public sector.