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2nd EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

EEA, 9-10 October 2008

Impacts of Europe’s changing climate – Impacts of Europe’s changing climate – 2008 indicator-based assessment2008 indicator-based assessment

European Environment Agency

Joint Research Centre

World Health Organisation Europe

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• Atmosphere and climate• Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice)• Marine biodiversity and ecosystems• Water quantity• Freshwater quality and biodiversity• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity• Soil• Agriculture and forestry• Human health

Categories of indicatorsCategories of indicators

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Key past and projected impactsKey past and projected impacts

Main biogeographic regions of Europe Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries)(EEA member countries)

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• Extremes of cold became less frequent and warm extremes more frequent• Number of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005

Temperature extremes in EuropeTemperature extremes in Europe

• Increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat-waves• Further decrease of number of cold days and frost extremes

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Observed changes in duration of warm spells in Observed changes in duration of warm spells in summer in the period 1976 - 2006summer in the period 1976 - 2006

Projected changes in number of Projected changes in number of tropical nights between periods tropical nights between periods

1961-1990 and 2071-21001961-1990 and 2071-2100

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• Intensity of precipitation extremes increased in the past 50 years (across Europe)• No change in part of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions

Precipitation extremes in EuropePrecipitation extremes in Europe

• More frequent heavy precipitation events (across Europe)• More and longer dry periods (especially in southern Europe)

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Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation between 1961-2006precipitation between 1961-2006

Number of consecutive dry days Number of consecutive dry days (1860 – 2100)(1860 – 2100)

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GlaciersGlaciers

• A 3°C increase in average summer temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the Alps by 80%

• With continuing climate change nearly all smaller glaciers and one third of glacier area in Norway could disappear by 2100

• The vast majority of European glaciers is in retreat (accelerated since 1980s)• Since 1850 the glaciers in the Alps lost about two thirds of their volume

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Cumulative specific net mass balance Cumulative specific net mass balance of glaciers from all European of glaciers from all European glaciated regions 1946-2006glaciated regions 1946-2006

Modelled remains of the glacier cover Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature in average summer air temperature

of 1 to 5ºC of 1 to 5ºC

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Arctic sea iceArctic sea ice

• Summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades• There will be still substantial ice in winter

• Arctic sea ice extent has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer• The record low ice cover in September 2007 was half of the size of a normal minimum extent

in the 1950s

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Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100 The 2007 minimum sea-ice extentThe 2007 minimum sea-ice extent

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Sea level riseSea level rise

• Sea level will rise 0.18 to 0.59 m from 1980-2000 to 2100 (IPCC)• Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit

• Global average SLR during the 20th century was about 1.7mm/year• Recent satellite and tide-gauge data indicate a higher average rate of about 3.1 mm/year in

the past 15 years

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Sea level changes in Europe 1992-2007Sea level changes in Europe 1992-2007

Projected global average Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100sea-level rise 1990-2100

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Marine phenologyMarine phenology

• Marine species may be able to adapt genetically, but these changes require several reproductive cycles to occur

• Warming oceans caused many marine organisms to appear earlier in their seasonal cycles (some species moved forward 4-6 weeks)

past

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Decapod abundance in the central North Sea 1950-2005Decapod abundance in the central North Sea 1950-2005

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Northward movement of marine speciesNorthward movement of marine species

• Further northward shift is likely, but projections are not yet available

• Northward shift of warmer-water plankton species by up to 1 100 km over last 40 years, which seems to be accelerated since 2000

• Many fish species have shifted northward (e.g. silvery john dory by 50 km/y) and sub-tropical species are occurring increasingly in European waters

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Recordings of two tropical fish Recordings of two tropical fish 1963-19961963-1996

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Northward movement of zooplankton Northward movement of zooplankton between 1958-2005between 1958-2005

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River floodsRiver floods

• Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe• Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding

• Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe (165 since 2000), the increase is mainly because of better reporting and land-use changes

past

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Occurrence of flood events 1998-2008Occurrence of flood events 1998-2008Relative change in 100-year return level of river Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

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River flow droughtRiver flow drought

• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but

minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions

• Europe has been affected by several major droughts in recent decades (e.g. 2003 in central parts and 2005 in the Iberian Peninsula)

• Climate change has probably increased the frequency/severity of droughts in some regions

past

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Change in the severity of river flow Change in the severity of river flow droughts in Europe 1962-1990droughts in Europe 1962-1990

Relative change in meanRelative change in meansummer minimum 7-day summer minimum 7-day river flow between river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-19902071-2100 and 1961-1990

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Water temperatureWater temperature

• In line with projected increases in air temperatures, lake surface water temperatures may be around 2 °C higher by 2070

• During the 20th century water temperature in some European rivers/lakes increased 1-3 °C

past

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Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20thth century century

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Freshwater biodiversity and water qualityFreshwater biodiversity and water quality

• Shift of many species to higher latitudes and altitudes• Southern species will move further north, northern species will move to higher altitude or will

disappear when their migration is hampered (e.g. fragmentation)

• Several freshwater species have shifted to higher latitudes and altitudes due to climate change and other factors

• Changes in life cycle events have occurred (earlier spring phytoplankton bloom, appearance of clear-water phase, spawning of fish)

past

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Northward shift and changes in occurrence of selected freshwater speciesNorthward shift and changes in occurrence of selected freshwater species

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Distribution of plant speciesDistribution of plant species

• Shift of European plant species by hundreds kilometres to the north (by the late 21st century)• Forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north• 60 % of all mountain species may face extinction

• Climate change causes northward and uphill shift of many European plant species• Mountain ecosystems are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species

are driven out of their ranges

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Number of disappearing Number of disappearing plant species in 2050 plant species in 2050

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Plant phenologyPlant phenology

• Trends in seasonal events will continue to advance due to climate change

• 78% of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends and only 3% a significant delay

• Advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade (1971 to 2000)• The pollen season starts 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago

past

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Phenological sensitivity to temperature changesPhenological sensitivity to temperature changes

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Distribution of animal speciesDistribution of animal species

• Distribution changes are projected to continue• Shift in suitable conditions for breeding birds nearly 550 km northeast (2100)• Up to 9% of 120 native European mammals risk extinction during 21st century

• Birds, insects, mammals and other groups are moving northwards and uphill • A combination of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the

movement’ possible leading to progressive decline of biodiversity

past

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Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in United Kingdom for Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in United Kingdom for selected groups of animal species over the past 40 yearsselected groups of animal species over the past 40 years

Projected impact of climate change on the Projected impact of climate change on the potential potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050

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Animal phenologyAnimal phenology

• Populations may explode if the young are not exposed to normal predation pressures• Populations may crash if the emergence of vulnerable young is not in synchrony with their main

food source

• Advancement in the life cycles of many animal groups (e.g. frogs spawning, birds nesting, arrival of migrant birds and butterflies), particularly in the Arctic

• Longer breeding seasons, allowing extra generations of insects such as butterflies, dragonflies and pest species during the year

past

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Changes in egg laying dates of pied flycatcher

(Ficedula hypoleuca) 1980–2004

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Species-ecosystem relationshipSpecies-ecosystem relationship

• These trophic mismatches will benefit generalists at the expense of specialists, putting additional pressures on ecosystems

• The stability of ecosystems will be affected by climate change due to species-specific responses and the disruption of existing biotic interactions

• The changing range of host species leads to changes in range expansions of species

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Relationship betweenRelationship betweenprojected distribution spaceprojected distribution spaceof the butterfly Titania fritillaryof the butterfly Titania fritillaryand its host plant and its host plant American bistort American bistort for 2080for 2080

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Growing season for agricultural cropsGrowing season for agricultural crops

• A further lengthening of the growing season is projected • In western and southern Europe the limited water availability and high temperature will hinder

plant growth

• The lengths of the growing season of several agricultural crops has increased in the North, favouring the introduction of new species

• Locally in the south there is a shortening of growing season, with higher risk of damages from delayed spring frost

past

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Rate of change of crop growing Rate of change of crop growing season length 1975-2007season length 1975-2007

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AgrophenologyAgrophenology

• The shortening of the phenological phases is expected to continue

• Flowering and maturity of several crops now occurs two or three weeks earlier than in the past

past

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Change rates of flowering Change rates of flowering date for winter wheat date for winter wheat

1975-20071975-2007

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Crop-yield variabilityCrop-yield variability

• More variable crop yields because extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude

• Since the beginning of the 21st century, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme weather events

past

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Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheatSensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat

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Water requirementWater requirement

• Further increase in the demand for water in agriculture, potentially increasing competition for water between sectors and uses

• Between 1975 and 2007 clear trends, a significant increase in water demand (50-70%) occurred in Mediterranean areas, and large decreases in northern and central Europe

past

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Rate of change of Rate of change of meteorological water balance meteorological water balance

1975-20071975-2007

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Forest growthForest growth

• Substantial shifts in distribution of forest species across Europe• Change in distribution and phenology of both pests and pollinators can lead to further changes

in forests• Periods of droughts and warmer winters will increase pest populations weakening forests

• In continental Europe, the forests are growing faster than in the early 20th century due to improved forest management, nitrogen deposition, reduced acidification, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration

past

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Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in EuropeCurrent (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe

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Forest fire dangerForest fire danger

• More severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons• Increases in the fire potential during summer month, especially in southern and central

Europe• Probably an increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn

• Fire danger increased during the past 50 years particularly in the Mediterranean and central Europe

past

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Projected changes in fire danger Projected changes in fire danger for 2071-2100for 2071-2100

Average annual change (1958-2006) of fire danger Average annual change (1958-2006) of fire danger level (SSR) level (SSR) in % per yearin % per year

autumnautumn

summersummer

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European CC Adaptation ChallengesEuropean CC Adaptation Challenges • ‘Climate-proof’ EU policies and Directives • Integrate adaptation into EU’s funding programmes• Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an

integration tool• Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing

countries)• Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional

scale and information on costs• Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations

and enhanced information exchange• Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation

technologies

Commission Green Paper, consultation in 2007 White Paper with concrete proposals expected early 2009

Early action through existing legislation (Water FWD, Natura2000, etc)

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• National adaptation strategies/plans:

• Under preparation: Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Norway, Romania

• Adopted: Denmark, Finland, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom

• Adaptation often focused on flood management and defence

• Scope for other adaptation actions, e.g.:

• Water demand management (scarcity and droughts)

• Natural hazard risk management

• Reinforcing infrastructure

• Land-use management and spatial planning, greening of cities

• Ecosystem management

• Health/heat action plans, health system planning

Current national adaptation plans and measuresCurrent national adaptation plans and measures

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Data and information needsData and information needs

• Improved monitoring and reporting: • National monitoring (e.g. GCOS essential climate variables)• Regular national or EU-wide monitoring for many impacts• Spatial data at right scales, e.g. river basin level

• Improved and coordinated scenarios:• High resolution scenarios regional level (e.g.

frequency/intensity of extreme weather events)• Consistency between climate and socio-economic scenarios

• Improved understanding of vulnerability and adaptation• Models and methods for vulnerability and adaptation potentials

• Information on good practices in adaptation• Effective adaptation measures and costs of adaptation• Better understand ‘mal-adaptation’

• Indicators to monitor adaptation actions and effectiveness• Better information exchange mechanisms

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European Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability European Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Clearinghouseand Adaptation Clearinghouse

• Climate change observations, impacts, vulnerabilities, actions, costs

• Provides networking to existing and future thematic and regional networks and organisations (droughts, marine, forest fires, coastal zones, disasters)

• Contributes to the implementation of the upcoming Commission White Paper on Adaptation

• Supports the coordination of future EU contributions to the UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme

• Includes the results of relevant research projects (e.g. EU RTD or JRC projects)

• Goes beyond EU borders (e.g. transboundary impacts)

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Links to existing systemsLinks to existing systems

• Data and information services, research programmes:• Kopernikus (formerly GMES) • ESA• EU RTD Framework programmes

• Existing systems:• European Commission (DG ENV), EEA, JRC:

• Biodiversity Clearinghouse Mechanism• WISE (Water Information System for Europe)• JRC forest and soil centres

• WHO: Climate, Environment and Health Information System (CEHAIS)• New EU approaches:

• SEIS (Shared Environmental Information System)• INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in the European

Community)• Networks:

• Environment (EEA EIONET)• Meteorological/climate change (EMS; EUMETNET; ECMWF)• Other stakeholders (national governments, agencies; businesses;

NGOs)

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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

http://www.eea.europa.eu/