1

5th EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, 30 June – 1 July 2011, Copenhagen

Progress on EEA 2012 indicator-based report on climate change impacts,

vulnerability and adaptation in Europe

Hans-Martin Füssel and André Jol

(Vulnerability and adaptation group)

Impacts of Europe’s changing climate (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008)

• Atmosphere and climate• Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice)• Marine biodiversity and ecosystems• Water quantity• Freshwater quality and biodiversity• Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity• Soil• Agriculture and forestry• Human health• Vulnerability and economic aspects

(sectors)

SOER 2010 (Nov 2010): thematic assessments on understanding climate change, adapting to climate change

Thematic assessments

Understanding climate change

Air pollution

Biodiversity

Water resources: quantity & flows

Soil

Freshwater quality

Consumption and environment

Material resources and waste

Land use

Mitigating climate change

Adapting to climate change

Marine and coastal environment Assessment of global megatrends

Political megatrends

Country assessments

Urban environment

Environmental megatrends

Each EEA member country (32) and EEA cooperating country (6) assessed all six environmental themes above.

Climate change mitigation

Nature protection & biodiversity

National and regional stories

Freshwater

Air pollution

Land use

Country profiles

Common environmental themes

Waste

Economic megatrends

Technological megatrends

Social megatrends

Soil

Land use

Marine and coastal environment

Soil

Land use

Europe’s key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended for CC IVA 2012 report

5

Objectives of CC IVA 2012 report

• Present past and projected climate change and impacts through indicators

• Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk

• Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions

• Present summary of adaptation actions across Europe

• Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and scenarios at appropriate scale, and for sharing of information

6

Related EEA reports in 2012

• Cities and vulnerability/adaptation (early 2012)

• Freshwater (2012)

• Coastal (2012)

• Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (2012)

7

• IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WGII, chapter on Europe:• expert review June/July 2012

• publication March 2014

• AMAP SWIPA report (Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic), launched in May 2011

• UNEP:• Climate Change Science Compendium, update of 2009 version, in

2011/2012?

• PRO-VIA: Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation, started 2011

• FAO, 2011: Climate change, water and food security

• WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate and Global Framework for Climate Services

• NOAA annual report on State of Climate

Reports by other organisations

• EEA Core set of indicators (CSI)

• European Commission (incl Eurostat):

• Europe 2020 indicators; resource efficient Europe by 2020 (being developed)

• Structural Indicators (SI)

• Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI)

• Annual Environment Policy Review

• EEA thematic: SEBI2010 (biodiversity), freshwater, marine

• EEA/Eurostat sectoral: energy, transport, agriculture

• EEA/Eurostat Environmental Accounts (linked to UN)

• Streamlining of indicators: clearinghouse EEA/Eurostat/JRC in 2011/2012

Other indicator sets

9

0. Summary1. Introduction2. EU Adaptation Policy

2.1. Sectoral policy frameworks2.2. International dimension

3. Socio-economic scenarios for Europe4. State of the climate system 4.1. Climate and atmosphere

4.2. Cryosphere 4.3. Sea level rise

5. Impacts of climate change and associated social, economic, and ecological risks5.1. Freshwater quantity and quality 5.2. Marine environment 5.3. Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity and soil 5.4. Agriculture5.5. Forestry5.6. Fisheries5.7. Energy, transport, and tourism5.8. Human health5.9. Coastal areas 5.10. Cities and urban areas

6. Economic consequences6.1. Damage costs6.2. Cost of adaptation

7. National and sub-national adaptation actions7.1. National adaptation strategies and plans7.2. Adaptation actions at regional and city levels

8. Data gaps, uncertainties and future needs

Draft scope of the report, main structure

10

Data and information sources • Essential Climate Variables (WMO Global Climate Observing System)

• GMES services land, marine, atmosphere, climate (reanalysis)

• Many EU research projects and national information

• JRC, PESETA I (2009); PESETA II (2011/2012)

• ESPON Climate (mid 2011)

• DG REGIO (2009; 2010)

• DG ENV ClimWatAdapt (2011)

• DG SANCO CEHAPIS (2011)

• EU research projects (Clearinghouse on Adaptation)

Main climate change vulnerability/risk indicators in Europe

12

• EEA project management with ETCs, WHO, ECDC

• Responsibilities for indicator (groups) divided between EEA, ETCs, WHO, ECDC

• Lead(s) for each indicator group and final report chapter will organise author(s) and other expert/scientific input

• External advisory group (Commission, EEA Scientific Committee, international organisations, EEA/WHO/ECDC/JRC)

• Eionet Forum Interest Group: http://forum.eionet.europa.eu/eea-2012-cc-iva-report-authors

• Country and other review will be organised by EEA

• Publication (editing, layouting etc.) as EEA report

• EEA writing guidance and guidance on figures/maps

• EEA indicator management system (for final product, 2012)

Organisation CC IVA 2012 report

13

Criteria for selection of indicators in report

• 2008 report: some criteria were used, draft technical paper

• 2012 report: evaluation/selection more transparent and documented, learning also from SEBI

• ETC CCA Technical paper (April – Sep 2011)

• Related but somewhat different criteria for ‘observed’ and ‘projected’ indicators

• Main groups of criteria for selection:• Relevance for policy (targets)• Causal links to climate change• Methodological/data quality and data accessibility• Robustness and/or known uncertainty• Acceptance and intelligibility

• Experts have compiled information on available data and projections for about 60 potential indicators

• Draft evaluation based on the criteria is available for most indicators using a scale from 1 (=low) to 5 (=high)

• Harmonisation to be done (by EEA and ETC-CCA)

• Total amount of indicators expected to be no less than in 2008 report (about 40)

14

Current status of ETC CCA technical paper on indicator evaluation

15

Improving communication of uncertainty in the CC IVA report

1. Is there need for improving assessment and communication of uncertainties in the 2012 report?

2. Which options exist for improving uncertainty assessment and communication?

3. (How) can the calibrated uncertainty language from the IPCC AR5 guidance be applied?

• Which uncertainty scales (quantitative / qualitative)?

• For which types of indicators and key messages (observation / trend / attribution / projection)?

16

Typology of key messages

Observation ProjectionO.1: Climate observation

O.2: Climate trend

O.3. Detection of impacts

O.4. Attribution of impacts

P.1: Climate change

P.2: Climate impacts

P.3: Adaptation needs

17

Examples (key messages from 2008 report):1.Single (approximate) value

Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume.

2.Range The annual average temperature [in Europe] is projected to rise this century by 1-5.5 °C (best estimate).

3.Semi-quantitativeClimate models indicate a slight increase in the number of storms and an increase of the strength of the heaviest storms.

4.Direction (of change)The vast majority of glaciers in Europe [...] are in retreat

5.Existence (of effect)The changing range of host species has major implications for range expansions of species...

Different levels of quantification

18

Draft conclusions on uncertainty

1. Assessment and communication of uncertainties can and should be improved in the 2012 report

2. The best approach depends on the type of indicator and/or statement

3. The level of quantification should be carefully chosen based on the available evidence

4. The calibrated language for communicating the level of evidence and agreement from the IPCC AR5 guidance can be applied to selected key messages of the 2012 report

19

• Outline and structure of the report

• Indicator selection process

• Addressing and communicating uncertainty

Considerable interest in the report

Broad support for the overall approach

Many relevant suggestions regarding structure and content

Discussion at first Advisory Group meeting (15 June 2011)

20

Indicative time schedulePeriod Activity

Feb 2011 Preliminary EEA-ETC meeting/discussions

Feb –March 2011 First draft outline of report and work plan

April-May 2011 Draft ETC CCA Technical paper on evaluation of climate change state, impact and vulnerability indicators

14/15 April 2011 1st full authors meeting (discussion on scope, objectives, content, contributions by partners)

15 June 2011 1stAdvisory Group meeting

30 June – 1 July Discussion at EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

1 Sep 2011 Updated work plan and ETC CCA technical paper

19-20 September 2011 (?) 2nd full authors meeting

1 Nov 2011 First draft indicator chapters

8 Nov 2011 2nd Advisory Group meeting

Feb 2012 Second draft chapters

April 2012 3rd Advisory Group meeting

May 2012 Final draft chapters and full report

June-July 2012: External EIONET and other review

August-Sep 2012 Inclusion of comments

October 2012 Final editing, layouting

November 2012 Publication and launch

Additional slides

10.04.23

22

Evaluation criterion Yes/NoIndicative ranking

1-5

Policy relevance Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions No 1

  Link to existing or emerging policy targets No 1

   

Relevance for Causal link to climate change Yes 4

climate change Sensitivity towards change Yes 4

  Spatial coverage and resolution Yes 2

  Length of time series and temp. resolution Yes 1

   

Methodological Transparent methodology Yes 4

validity and Valid model base Yes 4

data accessibility Data availability and regular updating Yes 4

   

Robustness Uncertainty assessment Yes 4

   

Broad Intelligibility Yes 5

acceptability Participatory development Yes 5

Example (1): storms and storm surges

10.04.23

23

Evaluation criterion Yes/NoIndicative ranking

1-5

Policy relevance Relevant for areas of EU policies and

actions 3  Link to existing or emerging policy targets 5   Relevance for Causal link to climate change 5climate change Sensitivity towards change 2 (slow)

  Spatial coverage and resolution5 (global

significance)

  Length of time series and temp. resolution

5 (long reconstruction) 2:

only indicative projections

   

Methodological Transparent methodology5 (detailed

documentation)

validity and Valid model base2 (Projection uncertainties)

data accessibility Data availability and regular updating 4   Robustness Uncertainty assessment 4   Broad Intelligibility 5acceptability Participatory development 1

Example (2): Greenland ice sheet

Evaluation criterion Yes/NoIndicative ranking

1-5Policy relevance

Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions

 Link to existing or emerging policy

targets Y 4

   Relevance for Causal link to climate change 4

climate change Sensitivity towards change  Spatial coverage and resolution Y

 Length of time series and temp.

resolution   Methodological Transparent methodology Y 4

validity and Valid model basedata accessibility Data availability and regular updating   Robustness Uncertainty assessment Y 4

   Broad Intelligibility Y 5

acceptability Participatory development

Example (3): Distribution of plant species

10.04.23

25

Evaluation criterion Yes/NoIndicative ranking

1-5Policy relevance

Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions 4

 Link to existing or emerging policy

targets 4

   Relevance for Causal link to climate change 2

climate change Sensitivity towards change 2

  Spatial coverage and resolution 5

 Length of time series and temp.

resolution 3

   Methodological Transparent methodology 3

validity and Valid model base (current economics) 1

data accessibility Data availability and regular updating 2

   Robustness Uncertainty assessment 1

   Broad Intelligibility (visually attractive) 2

acceptability Participatory development 3

Example (4): ESPON-Aggregate potential economic impact of climate change

Climate and Atmosphere Climate and Atmosphere

10.04.23

26

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected

data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CSI012 Global and European mean

temperaturex x o ─ Split CSI012 indicator(s) for consistency

with precipitation (where mean and extremes are handled by different indicators)

CSI012 Temperature extremes x x o ─

CLIM002 Mean precipitation x x o ─CLIM004 Precipitation extremes x ? o ─CLIM005 Storms and storm surges x x o x Move part on storm surges to "Coastal

areas"?CLIM006 Air pollution by ozone x ─ ─ Move to "Human health" or to "Cities and

urban areas"?NEW Air pollution and climate ? x ─ o Working title; move to "Human health"?;

combine with CLIM006?CSI013 Green house gas

concentrationsx x ─ ─ Drop from this report?

Cryosphere Cryosphere

10.04.23

27

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)

CLIM007 Glaciers x ? o ─CLIM008 Snow cover x x o x

CLIM009 Greenland ice sheet x ? x x Tentative projections exist (Text to be checked by Copenhagen Univ)

CLIM10 Sea ice x x x o Spatial coverage expanded to include Baltic Sea

CLIM011 Mountain permafrost x o ─ Consider including northen permafrost (palsa mires)

CLIM020 Lake and river ice cover x x x Move to "Freshwater"?

FreshwaterFreshwater

10.04.23

28

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected data

Descriptio

n sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CLIM016 River flow x x x oCLIM017 River floods x x x oCLIM018 River flow droughts x x x oCLIM019 Water temperature x x o

CLIM021

Freshwater biodiversity and water quality x x o

CLIM029 Soil moisture x o ─

NEW Water exploitation index x x xRename to "Water stress" or "Water scarcity"?

NEW

Public water supply and drinking water management x x o ─

Indicators to be merged?

NEW

Water demand (households and tourism) x x x

Coastal areasCoastal areas & & Marine Marine environment and fisheriesenvironment and fisheries

10.04.23

29

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CLIM012 Sea level rise x x x xCLIM041 People flooded x o ─NEW Saltwater intrusion x ─ ─ Potential indicator to be defined; currently just a

placeholderCLIM013 Sea surface temperature x x xCLIM014 Marine phenology x o ─CLIM015 Northward movement of marine

speciesx o ─ Rename to "Distribution of marine species" (to

improve consistency with CLIM022 and CLIM024)?

NEW Ocean acidification x x ─ ─

Terrestrial ecosystems, Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, and soilbiodiversity, and soil

10.04.23

30

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CLIM022 Distribution of plant species x x x xCLIM023 Plant phenology x x o xCLIM024 Distribution of animal species x x xCLIM025 Animal phenology x x o xCLIM026 Species ecosystem relationship x o ─ To be reconsideredCLIM027 Soil organic carbon x x x To be reconsideredCLIM028 Soil erosion by water x o xNEW European Butterfly Climate

Change Indicator (EBCCI)x o ─

NEW Conservation status of species and habitats

x x x Appears more relevant for chapter on adaptation policy

NEW Arctic species trend index x x xNEW Alien species and climate change o o Suggested by Wolfgang Rabitsch (UBA-AT)NEW Plant productivity x ─ ─ Potential indicator to be defined; currently just a

placeholder

Agriculture and forestryAgriculture and forestry

10.04.23

31

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected

data

Description sheet

Evaluation

sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CLIM030 Growing season for agricultural

cropsx o ─

CLIM031 Agrophenology x o ─CLIM032 Crop-yield variability x x o ─CLIM033 Water requirement / Meteorological

water balancex o ─

CLIM034 Forest growth x x x xCLIM035 Forest fire danger x x x x

Energy, transport and tourism,Energy, transport and tourism, and and Cities and urban areasCities and urban areas

10.04.23

32

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)NEW Modelled conditions for summer

tourism in Europex o ─

NEW Potential economic impact of climate change

? x x x Based on ESPON Climate; should be moved to different/new section if it will be included

NEW Energy ? ? ─ ─ Potential indicator to be defined; currently just a placeholder

NEW Urban heat waves x x o xNEW Urban air quality x ? x x Combine with CLIM006 and/or suggested

indicator "'Air pollution and climate change"?NEW Urban floods x x x xNEW Potential aggregate impact of

climate change? x o x Based on ESPON Climate; should be moved to

different/new section if it will be includedNEW Potential physical impact of climate

change? x o x

Human healthHuman health

10.04.23

33

Code Indicator Observed data

Projected

data

Description sheet

Evaluation sheet

Comment

(x - available; o - partly available; ─ - not available; ? - not clear)CLIM036 Heat and health x ? o ─

NEWExtreme weather events: excess heat x o x Replace or combine with CLIM036?

CLIM037 Vector-borne diseases x x x xCLIM038 Water- and food borne diseases x x xNEW National health adaptation

assessmentx o x Suggested for consideration by Jonathan Suk

(ECDC) but possibly more relevant for chapter on adaptation actions