slr vulnerability and adaptation

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Presented at the fall 2010 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, CA.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. Nicole Russell Ph.D. Student Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Gary Griggs Director Institute of Marine Sciences University of California Santa Cruz

2.

  • Coastal counties: 24% of CAs area but home to 80% of Californians
  • ~35 million visitors/yr and $23 billion/yr

Malibu, CA 3.

  • OPC has adopted 10-17 inch rise by 2050 & 40-55 inch rise by 2100

4.

  • Current global rate: ~2-3 mm/yr
  • Rate may be increasing
  • Besides, local rates matter most

5. Alaska

  • 4.24 ft/100 yrs
  • (-12.92 mm/yr)

noaa.gov Louisiana + 3.03 ft/100 yrs (+ 9.24 mm/yr) 6. California + 0.66 ft/100 yrs (+ 2.01 mm/yr) 7. 8.

  • Inundation of low-lying areas

Main Beach, Santa Cruz 2008 Lynne Harden 9.

  • Passive erosion

Projection: 3 foot sea level rise by 2100 10.

  • Inundation: weve seen it before

Mission Beach, San Diego Winter 1988 11. San Francisco Airport with 16 inches of sea level rise 12.

  • Increased cliff erosion

Antigua Apartments Depot Hill (www.Californiacoastllne.org) 13. Pacifica 2010 14.

  • Storm damage

Pacifica 1998 15.

  • Santa Cruz Boardwalk, 1926 ElNio

16.

  • Boardwalk during 1997-98 El Ni o

17.

  • Every community has a unique geographic setting and people
  • Planning officials must understand local vulnerabilities in order to form appropriate adaptation strategies
    • Well-documented disconnect between science and practice

18.

  • Improve transfer of relevant information from scientists to decision-makers
  • i.e. local SLRflood levelsnew flood hazard maps;
  • coastal cliff retreatsetbacks

Plan Santa BarbaraDraft Environmental Impact Report 19.

  • Perform SLR vulnerability assessments for two specific coastal communities in order to identify:
    • Range of hazards
    • Types of information needed for assessing vulnerability
    • Range of available adaptation approaches
    • Recommended adaptation strategies

20.

  • Create a guide for developing local mitigation plans
    • Vulnerability assessments
      • Risk-based

Santa Cruz City Climate Adaptation Plan 21.

  • SLR adaptation plans for Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara, CA
  • Guide available to all of Californias coastal communities

Santa Barbara County, CA 22.

  • California Energy Commission (PIER Program)
  • Cities of Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara, CA

23.