jelle van minnen 23 may 2012, eionet, brussels 1 climate vulnerability & adaptation in the dutch...

Jelle van Minnen

23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels

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Climate vulnerability & adaptation

in the Dutch delta

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The Netherlands

Setting: Small country with a

population of 17 million Delta of four river basins 26% is below sea level 60% is susceptible

to flooding Flood-sensitive area

is densely populated High level of flood

protection

Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

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The past…

Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

Large plans implemented as response to floods 1916 floods (North)Structural solutions with dams and barriers (Afsluitdijk dam to create IJsselmeer)

1953 flood disaster (South-West)First Delta CommitteeStructural solutions with dams and barriers (Delta Works)

1993/1995 high water levels (Rivers, large evacuations)Also spatial solutions: Room for the River/Meuse Projects

JJelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONETVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta

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Sealevel rise

More /extreme storms

More/intense rainfall

Spatialdevelopments

Increased erosion

Subsidence

Salt intrusion

Decreasedriver

discharge

Increased river

discharge

Delta under pressure: Challenges for the future

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Climate Change Challenges in the Netherlands

Dutch Delta Programme & Delta Act Started in 2010 Objective: A safe and attractive

country, also at the end of the century Annual update to parliament 5 D’s Focus

– Flood protection– Freshwater supply– (Re)development of built-up areas

1. ARK & adaptation Strategy (2007)

2. State Committee Veerman (2008)

PBL study on IVA Started in 2009 Broad assessment 2 steps

– Impacts & vulnerability– Strategic options

Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, BrusselsVulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta


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Delta Programme Delta Act (to ensure continuity)

– Delta Commissioner– Delta Fund

Delta Decisions (2014/2015)

The five Dutch D’s


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Delta programme now – 2015Ongoing implementations & programs under DP: Improve current satefy level

–Flood Protection Program / Weak Links in Coast– Organizing safety on the basis of dyke inspections– Room for the River / Meuse Projects– 90 projects along the rivers

At the same time looking further ahead: Preparing Delta Decisions (2015)


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• 3 national decisions:

• Safety standards + program

• Urban and spatial restructuring

•Freshwater strategy +measures

• 2 regional decisions

Delta decisions, 2015 Safety standards

Urban restructuring

Freshwater


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PBL report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’

Both impacts & adatation assessment Adaptation: Step towards solutions:

what can be done? Identification of strategic options:

– Flood protection– Freshwater supplies & water quality– Nature & biodiversity– Urban development


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PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’

Cooperation with: KNMI, Deltares, WUR, Utrecht Uni., Maastricht Uni.

Assessment observed & projected Opportunities & risks Sectors/chapters:

– Climate System– Water: safety & supply & quality– Nature & biodiversity– Agriculture– Health– Tourism


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I: Flood protection

new

current

Risk depends on upstream measures

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I: Flood protection Problem: rising sea level and increasing river discharges

Risk = probability x effect

Option 1 adjustments to built-up areas (long-term proces) Option 2 application of ‘Delta dykes’ (= unbreachable)

Present policy


PBL advice

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Delta dykes: almost unbreachable


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Advantages of Delta dykes

Strong decrease in casualties (50-80%)

Strong reduction in economic losses

Efforts for adjusting built-up area reduced

Less vulnerable to unexpected extremes caused by climate change


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Disadvantage: Delta dykes more costly

Present policy

1500 kmDelta dykes


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Summary (i)

Impacts

Many changes have been observed. But not everything is changing yet.

Some future changes are more uncertain than others (even sign)

Despite multiple future changes, in general NL is climate robust

Critical issue for the Netherlands is fresh water availability, nature & health


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Summary (ii)

Adaptation options & strategies

Fundamenal choices needed for more climate-resilient NL

– Unbreachable dykes

– Climate-proofing freshwater supplies needs more flexible water system & better use of water in river Rhine.

– Implementation of climate-proofing measures in urban development requires early integration in planning and decision making and flexibility in financing mechanisms.


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www.pbl.nl/en

Report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’


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II: Freshwater supplies Problem: in most dry scenario tipping point near 2050

if water demand increases, before 2050

Challenge: Enough fresh water in dry summers

Balancing water supply demand

PBL advice:1.Increase flexibility in water systems 2.Increase efficiency of water use for both national and

regional waters

Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta

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Option flexibility in water supply: national waters

Even in extremely dry summers, 80% of the available Rhine wateris used to prevent salinisation by the New Waterway

Here, salinisation could be prevented using less fresh water

New Waterway80% of Rhineflow


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Flexibility in water supply:

Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter)

PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water.

10% of Rhine at New Waterway ≈ 1 meterwater-level fluctuationin IJsselmeer

New Waterway:of nationalimportance


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Flexibility in water supply: Better use of Rhine water

Since Committee Veerman strong focus on IJsselmeer(water level + 1.5 meter)

PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water.

New Waterway:of nationalimportance

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Flexibility in water demand:

No overview of potential effects of measures per region Main uses are for agriculture and water-level management

Options to address drought risks without extra water supplies:– Accept drought losses, or insure them– Large-scale water storage in regions: not cost-effective– Adjust crops: choices are dominated by markets, not by water– Adjust regional water management: seems no regret

Studies indicate:– Reduction in water use of 40 – 80% seems possible at low costs,

for instance by accepting flexible salinisation standards in extreme dryyears


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IV: Urban areas Problem: flood risks, increasing water nuisances, heat risks

Challenge: A climate-proof development of urban areas

PBL advice: Knowledge, expertise and effective measures are available

Flexibility in urban infrastructure is limited

Integration of adaptation measures in new urban development, redevelopment or maintainance programme today is needed to reduce additional costs in the future


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Measures and actors on different scales

Potential measures Use of buildings Insulation of buildings Adjust treshold height Water retention within streets Street vegetation … … Water retention under streets Upgrade sewerage system Create ponds and parcs Thermal storage systems … Green networks Blue networks

COMPLEX network of public and private

actors


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Preconditions for seizing opportunities

Integration of climate adaptation early on, in planning and design processes

Clear responsibilities

Integration in decision-making process

More flexibility in financing mechanisms



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PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’ (iv)Nature & Biodiversity Observed Projected

jelle van minnen 23 may 2012, eionet, brussels 1 climate vulnerability & adaptation in the dutch...

Documents

dutch delta slide

dutch delta pbl advice

dutch delta large plans

river discharge delta

application of delta

barriers delta works

dutch ds slide

unbreachable jelle van