1 urban transport in china – car crazy? lee schipper embarq china environment forum, ww center nov...
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Urban Transport in China – Car Crazy?
Lee SchipperEMBARQ
China Environment Forum, WW Center Nov 30, 2006
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EMBARQ
• A catalyst for socially, financially, and environmentally sound solutions to the problems of urban mobility
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EMBARQ• Established as a unique center within World Resources
Institute in 2002, EMBARQ is now the hub of a network of centers for sustainable transport in developing countries.
• Shell Foundation and Caterpillar Foundation are EMBARQ’s Global Strategic Partners, supporting EMBARQ projects worldwide
• Additional EMBARQ supporters include– Hewlett Foundation– Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs– BP– US AID– Asian Development Bank– Energy Foundation– Blue Moon Fund– US Environmental Protection Agency
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Sustainable Transport: These are the Drivers, not CO2
• Economic Sustainability– Affordable to users – Attractive as business– Each mode or fuel bears full social costs
• Social Sustainability – Promotes access for all, not just a few– Builds healthy and solid communities– Allows equal road space distribution for all transport modes– Minimizes travel time
• Environmental Sustainability– Minimizes accidents and damage to human health– Leaves no burdens for future generations – Reduces greenhouse gas emissions – Not Yet
Governance is The Roof Over these PillarsIntegrating Mobility, Security, and Energy
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WORLD PRIMARY OIL USE, 1965-2004(Source: BP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
/Day
US Other OECD ROW w/o China China
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GDP Cars Oil Oil for Cars Total CO2
US
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Va
lue
= 1
00
US China ROW
World Oil: The U.S. and China In Context(All figures in per capita terms)
U.S. increment in oil use for cars and light trucks 2002-2003 was half of China’s total in 2003
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries
OECD52%
China16%
India4%
Other11% MENA
6%
Transition
economies
11%
OECD42%
China19%
India6%
Other16%
Transition
economies
9%
MENA8%
24 Gt
20302003
37 Gt
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005
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The Bush Metric of Success–CO2/GDPChina Has Far Outpaced the US
Source: IEA
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
China US Mexico India
Changes in Carbon Dioxide/GDP Ratio 1990-2003
Changes in Total Emissions 1990-2003
Changes in Per Capita Emissions 1990-2003
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CO2 Emissions from Road Transport
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
$0.1 $1.0 $10.0 $100.0
GDP/Capita, $1000 USD (2000) PPP
To
nn
es C
O2/C
ap
ita
US 60-03 UK 60-03
China 71-03 India 71-03
Japan 60-03 Mexico 71-03
Brazil 71-03 Turkey 60-03
Korea 65-03 Viet Nam 93-03
Source: IEA
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1987 2000 1986 2000 1986 2001
Wuhan Wuhan Xian Xian Shanghai Shanghai
"other"
walk
bicycle
metro
bus/ferry
taxi
companycar
priv car
m'cycle
Access: People in China Move 12-14 Km/day, Urban Americans 40-45 km/day
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Motorization in China: Déjà vu All Over Again?
Is rapid urbanization in China and other countriesputting cities and cars on a collision course?
1
10
100
1000
$1,000 $10,000 $100,000
GDP Capita, 1995 USD (PPP)
Ca
rs a
nd
pe
rso
na
l li
gh
t tr
uc
ks
- S
UV
s/
10
00
pe
op
le
United States 1910-2003
China 1987-2003
Korea 1970 - 2002
Japan 1965 - 2000
w. Germany 1960-1995
Mexico (1986-2000)
Source: EMBARQ
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Rapid Motorization in Chinahttp://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/background+2/$File/China_Motorization.pdf
• The Growth of the Automobile Industry– Pillar of national economy – or another battering ram?
– Popularity – increase in demand and foreign investment
– Low cost and high cost models, imports
• Historic Trends and Future Projections– Automobile production from 509,000 in 1990 to 4.4 million in 2004
– China’s “car” stock from well under million in 1992 to 12 million in 2003
– Increasing contributor to air pollution, congestion, traffic fatalities
• New Reality – “The Car is Out of the Bag”– New “Car” Fuel Economy Standards ~ 30 MPG (US effectively 24 MPG)
– Emission and fuel quality standards catching up to US, Europe
1970s rural vehicle 2002 Buick Van
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Cars and Urban Transport in China:Symbol for Much of the World?
• Congestion: Cars and Other Traffic• Buses and people stuck in traffic
• Building more roads makes problem worse
• Tough policies called for – by whom?
• Air Pollution: Too Many Vehicles• Enough old smokers to ruin air
• New fuels, vehicles improving
• Emissions from cars could offset improvements
• Traffic Safety: People First• Walkers, cyclists main victims
• Too many kinds of traffic in same place, unequal road space distribution
• More cars and speed will kill more people
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EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China
• Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See.. Yet– Reasonable estimates for “present values”– Growth based on nearby example -- Korea – Convergence with many other studies in the base case
• Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs– Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption– Impacts of alternative fuels – Total CO2 emissions
• Qualitative Results– Flesh and bones on the base case– Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use– Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out
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EMBARQ’s Scenarios for China
• Base Case – China has Korean car/GDP ratio in 2020– 120-160 million cars, 12,000 km/car– 8-8.5 L/100 km if no new measures – Closer to 2 mn bbl/day oil in 2020
• Oil Saving Scenario – 40% as much oil, some CNG– Japanese/Euro level of fuel prices– 110-130 million cars, but less driving/car– Fuel economy standards, some hybrids and CNG
• Integrated Transport - Livable cities with good transport– Much lower car ownership and use– avoiding the plague– Very small cars (incl. slow electrics, hybrids) to avoid space and
congestion problems in cities– Serious BRT, Metro, car-use restraint, land-use planning – avoid
Mexico
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China’s New-Car Fuel Economy Standards: A Start
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20
25
30
35
40
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Vehicle Test Weight (lbs)
CAF
E-eq
uiva
lent
MPG
Phase I
Phase II
Weight-class based• Car of given weight cannot use more
than a given fuel use/km by tests
• Will probably impact SUVs significantly
Overall Impact Uncertain• 20-30% impact in each class
• Will keep cars from becoming guzzlers
• Will not prevent larger market shares of heavy, fuel intensive cars
Technology not the problem• Key is car size, power, utilization
• Manufacturers can choose techs.
• Fuel taxes, externalities next?
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Alternative Fuels or Fools? Tough Choices for China
• Ethanol and other “Biofuels”– Modest experience, but high costs– Issue of land, water, pollution – what’s new here?– Scaling up may just be unreasonable
• Fossil Alternatives – Lots of LPG and CNG, but these not real alternatives – Gas to liquids, but where’s the gas?– Coal to liquids – methanol or synthetic liquids?
• A Third Way? Coal and Electrification?– Start with hybrids, battery electrics?– Coal to hydrogen/fuel cells with sequestration?– Electric drive now for most city vehicles??
Key Element – Fuel and Externality Pricing
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Better Urban Transport: No Choice!
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CO2 Emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
En
erg
y U
se f
or
Car
s, b
y so
urc
e, M
TO
E
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To
tal C
arb
on
Em
issi
on
s (M
n T
on
nes
)
Electricity, as Primary Energy
CNG
Oil in Hybrids
Oil in Conventional Gasoline Cars
Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel, andAbove all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The Sustainability Challenge: Cars and CO2 Emissions in 2020
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GHG In China Not an Crucial Policy Driver:
• Little Concrete Action on GHG from Transport– Wasted fuel, extra air pollution from bad traffic– Less than 15% of urban trips in cars, yet cities stuffed – Coal for oil could become China’s GHG nightmare
• Some Motion on Fuel Quality and Fuel Economy – Increased stringency on fuel quality and emissions – China fuel economy standards, real concern about oil– Moves on fuel taxes likely next step -- revenue
• Lip Service to the Real Threat – Urban Immobility– More vehicle use, congestion, accidents– Higher health and accident risks– Policy changes needed soon
Numbers of cars, their Size, Use is Key
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Transport Projects and CO2 Counting: Difficult Bean Counting for China
• Rush to Sell “CO2 Avoided” in Developing Projects– Both fuels/vehicles and traffic changes (like BRT)– Most projects are small, changes within noise– Very difficult to measure or model changes
• Various Mechanisms – in Order of Difficulty – Mayors make feel-good pledges, companies buy offsets– Actions like US Asia/Pacific Consortium – mostly hot air– Clean Development Mechanism: Tiny compared to the
problem
• The Challenge for China – Finding “Negacarbon”– Verification becomes a “less than otherwise” prospect– Overall growth swamps projects– Self interest – healthy cities, oil imports -- the real drivers
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Conclusions: Will China Decarbonize?
• Urban Transport Solutions is the Umbrella– Make room for 300 million more urbanites – land use planning– Scale up of bus rapid transit– Next steps – restraints on car use (congestion pricing?)
• Clean Air Means Fewer Kilometers– Fuel economy standards a valuable first step– Real urban transport – not just token BRT -- reform next– Next steps – car restraints, protection for NMT
• Fuel Economy and Alternative Fuels– Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient – Alternative fuels prospects grim – competition for land– Main threat/hope – coal/decarbonized hydrogen?
Avoiding the Multiple Problems of Too Many CarsIs Much Easier than Mitigating them when its too late!
