Big Opportunities in India!

Transforming Transportation 2013!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!

! Madhav Pai!!   Director!!   EMBARQ India!

Big  Opportuni,es    in  India

!

200-230 Million !New Urban Residents

by 2030!

Rapid Urbanization!

Source: McKinsey, 2010

12 Million !New 2 Wheelers!

(2012)!

Accelerated Motorization!

Source: IIHS, 2011

120,000 India

1,200,000 Worldwide

(Road Fatalities 2008)!

Road Fatalities Comparison (2001 – 2009)!

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Fatalities per million population (major Indian cities)

2001

2009

712,000 South Asia

2,100,000 Worldwide

(Outdoor Air pollution Related Deaths)!

Urban transport energy use,

emissions will increase 5-7 fold in the next 20 years!

Urban Transport – 2030 Scenarios

0

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2

3

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1980 2000 2030: BAU 2030 FuelEff.

2030:TWW

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Schipper L. Banerjee I. and Ng W.S. “CO2 Emissions from Land Transport in India Scenarios of the Uncertain”, TRB Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 2009

27% Less Energy as compared with 2030 BAU

AHMEDABAD!

Rapid Urban Growth!

3.3 million 1992! 6.4 million 2011!

Today 2041Automobility Sustainable  Transport

Population  (millions) 5.4 13.2 13.2Trips (millions/yr) 5.6 39.75 39.75Area  (Sq.  Km.) 1330 6484 3242Emissions(million  Tons  CO2/yr) 0.33 12.32 1.97Traffic  Fatalities  (per  yr) 175 5,232 1,225

Potential to Limit Urban Sprawl

Ahmedabad

Transport Infrastructure Investment Estimates

Source: CEPT University, 12FYP, 2011

10 Million 2030

0.4 Billion USD/Year

0.6 Billion USD/Year

1.2 Billion USD/Year

0.8 Billion USD/Year

JnNURM!

!  1.1 Billion – Bus Rapid Transit!

!  1 Billion – Buses for Cities!

!  0.4 Billion – Support Technology + Infrastructure for Transit!

!  19 Billion – Rail Metro!

Draft 12th 5 Year Plan2013-2018!

20 Year Horizon

Urban Transport Investment Estimates

Q1  –  Is  this  enough  to  adequate    build  public  transport  ?

!

 Q2  –  What  policies,  

instruments  will  we  need  to  ensure  land-­‐use  

transport  integra,on?  !

Thank You!

Transforming Transportation 2013!

!   Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!!   More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!

!   Questions? Comments? Contact us at embarq@wri.org!!   Follow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetwork!

Transforming Transportation 2013!