1

Global Monitoring Report 2008

MDGs and the EnvironmentAgenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development

2

World on track on poverty reduction and gender parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls likely

on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals

dd

3

Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia on most human development goals. At country level,

most countries are off track to meet most MDGs

4

Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states—even negative on some MDGs

5

Agenda ahead

• Assessment at midpoint shows urgent need to generate stronger, more inclusive momentum toward the MDGs

• With stronger efforts by countries and by development partners, most MDGs still achievable for most countries

• As MDG 7 underscores, development and environmental sustainability are integrally linked

• In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority actions and milestones for monitoring progress

• Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development

6

MDGs and the environment: A six-point agenda

for inclusive and sustainable development

• Sustain and broaden the growth momentum

• Achieve better results in human development

• Integrate development and environmental sustainability

• Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness

• Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth

• Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable development

7

Increased risks from financial turbulence—developing-country growth slowing but still robust

0

2

4

6

8

World output Advancedeconomies

Emerging marketand developing

countries

Africa

2007 2008 (Projected) 2009 (Projected)

annual % change

8

Private capital flows expected to ease but remain relatively abundant

Net private capital flows to developing countries

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008P

0

2

4

6

8

$ billions Percent

Percent of GDP (right

axis)

$1 trillion in 2007

9

Sharp rises in energy and food prices add to risks

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

grains raw materials metals energy

Commodity Price Index (1990=100)

10

Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely across countries

11

Growth needs to be more inclusive—both across and within countries

Annual change in Gini coefficient in 59 developing countries

12

More but better spending on education and healthPublic spending on education and health typically favors the rich

13

Stronger focus needed on combating malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgencyIncidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries

14

Environmental health risks—a significant concernEconomic burden of poor environmental health can be high—

1.5-4% of GDP annually

15

Deforestation causes loss of forest equivalent in size to Panama or Sierra Leone every year

Annual deforestation by region and income group, 2000-05

16

Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change and least able to adapt

Impact of climate change on agricultural yields, 2079-99

17

Mitigation calls for common but differentiated responsibilities

Per capita GHG emissions (including from land use change), 2000

18

Global Environmental Sustainability- One Size Does Not Fit All

Sub-soil resource rich countries (e.g. Mozambique)Invest resource rents, improve governance

Rapidly urbanizing countries (e.g. Vietnam) Manage pollution from transport and industry

Agriculture-dependent countries (e.g. Ethiopia) Manage land and water resources, diversify assets

Biodiversity rich countries (e.g. Peru) – Conserve natural areas, tap global finance for conservation, develop ecotourism

High child mortality countries (e.g. Mali)Provide water and sanitation, improve access to electricity

Countries in transition (e.g. Ukraine) Increase energy efficiency and control pollution

High deforestation countries (e.g. Brazil) – Eliminate perverse incentives, improve governance

Increasing water scarcity (e.g. MNA) Increase water use efficiency, define water use rights

Rapidly growing countries (e.g. China, India) Reduce carbon intensity of growth

High income countries Provide global public goods – e.g. Kyoto and beyond

19

Countries’ absorptive capacity rising, but aid falling

DAC members’ net ODA flows

0

30

60

90

120

150

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

2005 US$ (billions)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

ODA as % of GNI

ODA as a % of GNI Total net ODA

20

Time to deliver on aid commitments is nowMost of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized

*Based on commitments made at Gleneagles and other donor commitments in 2005

0

30

60

90

120

150

All DAC donors G7 donors All DAC donors G7 donors

2004 2007 2010 target*

2004 US$ billions

Total Net ODA Net ODA to SSA

21

Doha remains crucialSupport to agriculture has not been declining

Gross subsidy equivalents of assistance to farmers, 1960-2004

22

Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness in exploitation of trade opportunities

Aid for trade, average 2002-06

23

Trade policy should facilitate transfer of environmentally friendly technologies

Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness

Trade Restrictiveness Index (%)

24

MDBs had record disbursements in 2007Even as their relative financing role declines, international financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key

MDBs’ gross disbursements by type of flow and region, 2000-07

25

Issues for consideration at the meeting

• What are the key elements of the agenda to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth, especially in Africa?

• What challenges arise for developing countries from recent economic developments―financial market turmoil, global growth slowdown, and rise in energy and food prices―and how they may be addressed?

• What actions are needed to scale up aid and ensure its effectiveness in a changing aid architecture and to leverage more private capital?

• What measures are needed to enable countries to harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth?

• How can financing and technology transfer to developing countries be facilitated to help them achieve climate-resilient and low-carbon growth?