lessons learned from mdgs and the post-2015 agenda

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United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda Seminar ‘The way forward in poverty measurement’ Geneva, 2-4 December 2013

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Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda. Seminar ‘The way forward in poverty measurement’ Geneva, 2-4 December 2013. Content. Lessons learned MDGs Coverage/use Discrepancies Post 2015 agenda Consultation process References to Statistics Implications for the way forward. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda

United Nations Economic Commission for EuropeStatistical Division

Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda

Seminar ‘The way forward in poverty measurement’

Geneva, 2-4 December 2013

Page 2: Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda

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Content

Lessons learned MDGs• Coverage/use• Discrepancies

Post 2015 agenda• Consultation process• References to Statistics

Implications for the way forward

Page 3: Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda

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Millennium Development Goals

Millennium Declaration adopted by the General Assembly in September 2000 at the Millennium Summit

Main output: Initiation of the MDG Largest international effort to reduce poverty Goals set with time-bound and quantified

targets Indicators to monitor progress Base year: situation in 1990, deadline 2015

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UNECE Regional MDG Database

Official National and International data for monitoring the MDGs

Additional indicators frequently used in UNECE Region

Disaggregated data if relevant and available Comparable data grouped together Include available metadata (definitions,

methods, primary data source, reference period etc.)

w3.unece.org/pxweb/ or via www.unece.org/stats

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http://w3.unece.org/pxweb/

Page 6: Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda

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Coverage of MDG indicators in National Reporting ECE region Most Indicators have very low coverage:

Indicators Country• 6 per cent: >75%• 8 per cent: 50-75%• 20 per cent: 25-50%• 65 per cent: < 25%• 31 per cent: < 10%

N=29 countries Not always according to internationally

recommended definition and/or methodology

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Coverage official poverty indicators in National MDG monitoring:

1.01 Population below $1 (PPP) per day• 29% (at least 3 data points: 25%)

1.02 Poverty gap ratio at $1 a day (PPP) • 21% (at least 3: 13%)

1.03 Poorest quintile's share in national income or consumption • 50% (at least 3: 50%)

National poverty line: 100% (at least 3: 97%)

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Additional indicators used frequently for MDG Target 1a

• Relative national poverty line (18)• Basic needs based national poverty line (14)• Food basket based national poverty line (11)• $4.30 or $5.00 (PPP) per day (7)• Unspecified national poverty line, unspecified (7)

Income poorest quintile to the income of the richest quintile (6)

Gini coefficient (13)N=29

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MDG 1.3: Poorest quintile’s share in national income or consumption (%)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Albania na na na na na na na i na na na na 4.9 na i 0.4na na 1.1 na na naAzerbaijan na na na na na i na na na na na i n n na na na na 9.3 n n nArmenia na na na na na na i na na -1na -1 -1 -0.8 1.4 0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -0.3n 1.3nBosnia and Herzegovina na na na na na na na na na na n 0.5na na i na na 0.5 na na na naBulgaria na na i na i i na i na na na i na i na na na i na na na naBelarus na na na i na 1.1n n 0.8 n 0.8 0.9 0.9 n 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0 0.5 0.4 -0.2Croatia na na na na na na na na i i i i na na i na na na i na na naCyprus na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na naCzech Republic na na na i na na i na na na na na na na na na na na na na na naEstonia na na na i na i na na i na i i i i i na na na na na na naGeorgia na na na na na na i i i i 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 n i i i i na i naHungary na na na i na na na na i i i i i na i na na i na na na naKazakhstan na na na i na na i na na na na i i 0.5 0.4n -0.4 -0.2 0 0.6n naKyrgyzstan na n n 4.4 n n n n -2.6 n n n -3.2n -2.3 -1.1 -2.7 -3.6 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 iLatvia na na na i na i i i i na na na i i i na na i i i na naLithuania na na na i na na i na i na i i i na i na na na i na na naMalta na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na naMoldova, Republic of na na i na na na na i i i n -0.2 0 0 -0.1 -0.3 1.3 1 1.7 0.6 0.3naMontenegro n na na na na na na na na na n na na na na 0.3 i 0.8 1na i naPoland na na i i na na i na i i i i i na i i i i i i i iRomania na na i na i na na na i na i i i -4.7 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.4 -4.5 -4.6 i iRussian Federation n na na i na n 1.7n n -0.2n -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4na naSerbia na na na na na na na na na na na na i i i i i i i i i naSlovakia na na i na na na i na na na na na na na i i i i i i na naSlovenia na na na i na na na na i na na na i i i na na na na na na naTajikistan na na na na na na na na na i na na na i i na na i na i na naTurkey na na na na 2.7na na na na na na na 3.7 3.4 3.8 4 3.7 3.4 3.4 na i naTurkmenistan na na na i na na na na i na na na na na na na na na na na na naUkraine na na i na na i i na na i na na i i i i i i i i i na

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

na na na na na na na na i na i na i i i i i na i i i naUzbekistan na na na na na na na na i na na na i i na na na na na na na na

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Discrepancies national and international MDGs indicator data

Nearly always discrepancies in values and coverage

└► Different definitions, methodologies and (primary) data sources• Often break in series• Data sources not always consistent and

sustainable Often no common approach National policy vs International comparability

• └► Need metadata to explain difference

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Promo Slide Getting the Fact Right

- Guide to presenting metadata- Metadata for interpreting data and tracking development progress- Exampled on MDG indicators from UNECE Region

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Main critique MDGs:

Focused more on least-developed countries and less relevant for middle and high income countries

Countries were not involved in setting the Goals, Targets and, especially, the selection of indicators

Statisticians were not involved in choosing the indicators and setting the targets

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Development Agenda beyond 2015 - the Post-2015 MDG follow-up

General Assembly Member States: open, inclusive consultations involving civil society, the private sector, academia and research institutions from all regions, in addition to the UN system, to advance the development agenda beyond 2015.

Coherence between UN Conference on Sustainable Development and the preparations for the post-2015 United Nations development agenda.

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WG on Monitoring

and Indicators

WG on Global

Partnership for

Development

Technical Support Team on

SDG

UNDG National,

global and thematic

consultations

High Level Political Forum

Sustainable Development

UN Global Compact

UN System Task Team (UNTT)

High‐level Panel of Eminent

Persons (HLP)

Sustainable Development Solutions

Network (SDSN)

UN GA Open Working Group

(OWG)

Regional Consultations

World We Want web platform

UN Country Consultations

Committee of experts on Sustainable

Development Financing

UN Thematic Consultations

UN General AssemblyUN Secretary GeneralSG Special Advisor

Millennium Development Goals

My World Global Survey

Post-2015 Agenda

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Inter Agency Expert Group

High‐level Panel of Eminent Personson the Post‐2015

Development Agenda

UN System Task Team (UNTT) on the

Post-2015 UN Development Agenda

WG on Monitoring and

Indicators

UN GA Open Working Group

ECE

Post-2015 Agenda & Sustainable Development

Countries General PublicAcademics

General AssemblySecretary General

60 UN agrncies

High Level Political

orum

Committee of experts on Sustainable

Development Financing

Sustainable Development Solutions

Network (SDSN)

UN Global Compact

Regional Consultations

World We Want web platform

UN Country Consultations

UN Thematic Consultations

My World Global Survey

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Post-2015 Reports

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General Assembly 68th session:

Countries have decided to decide:• Decided to launch a process of intergovernmental negotiations

which will lead to the adoption of the post-2015 development agenda

• The post-2015 agenda should reinforce commitment to poverty eradication and sustainable development

Open Working Group: prepare proposal on SDGs for 68 th session of the GA (sept.2013-2014)

Secretary General Synthesis report before the end of 2014 General Assembly September 2015 for the adoption of the

post-2015 development agenda

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Examples of References to Data and Statistics UNTT:”build on existing household survey

programmes”;”...more availability of data disaggregated by sex, age, geography, migrant status and rural-urban location will be critical”

HLP: “Data revolution…a new international initiative to improve the quality of statistics and information available to people and government”

OWG: “Income poverty remains the principal target, but poverty is multidimensional…” ; “…ensure that countries have the necessary data collection and statistical capacities…”

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Recurrent/Common Issues in reports Poverty eradication remains overarching objective Sustainable Development at core Should be relevant for all countries Involve statisticians in selecting indicators More important role for Statistics Importance of good data Inequality should be covered Special attention for vulnerable groups Disaggregated data needed Poverty multidimensional

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Considerations for The way forward We need a limited coherent set of indicators

useful for international comparison and relevant for all ECE countries

Indicators based on commonly used data sources Include component for sustainable development Multidimensional aspects of poverty, inequality

and social exclusion need to be addressed National policies are country specific: large

common set not feasible However, common problems: common conceptual

framework useful

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Task Team on Lessons

Learned in MDG

Monitoring

WG on Monitoring

and Indicators

WG on Global

Partnership for

Development

Technical Support Team on

SDG

UNDG National,

global and thematic

consultations

High Level Political Forum

Sustainable Development

UN Global Compact

UN System Task Team (UNTT)

High‐level Panel of Eminent

Persons (HLP)

Sustainable Development Solutions

Network (SDSN)

UN GA Open Working Group

(OWG)

Inter Agency Expert Group

(IAEG)

Regional Consultations

World We Want web platform

UN Country Consultations

Committee of experts on Sustainable

Development Financing

UN Thematic Consultations

UN General AssemblyUN Secretary GeneralSG Special Advisor

Millennium Development Goals

My World Global Survey

Post-2015 Agenda

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Countries have decided to decide

Whatever the outcome of this Seminar and whatever the possible follow-up activities will be:

Mobilize the national statistical community to advise your government and to make sure you will be consulted

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Considerations for The way forward We need a limited coherent set if indicators useful for

international comparison and relevant for all ECE countries

Indicators based on commonly used data sources Include component for sustainable development Multidimensional aspects of poverty, inequality and social

exclusion need to be addressed National policies are country specific: large common set

not feasible However, common problems: common conceptual

framework useful Advise our governments, get them to consult statisticians

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Additional Slides

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Inter Agency Expert Group (IAEG)

UN Secretariat, specialized agencies, government agencies, national statisticians etc.

Biannual coordination meeting Technical coordination group on statistics and

monitoring Technical sub-groups for specific

areas/indicators Coordinated by UNSD

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SGs High-level Panel on Post-2015 To prepare a bold yet practical development vision

to present to Member States Members from civil society, private sector and

government leaders (30) Chair: PM David Cameron, Pr. Ellen Johnson

Sirleaf & Pr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Consultative meetings with international civil

society, private sector representatives and global youth

100 National consulatations

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UN System Task Team (UNTT) To support the consultation process Coordinate system-wide preparations and define

a system-wide vision on a post-2015 agenda Critical evaluation of how the MDGs have worked Expert Group Meeting UNTT and national and

academic experts Lead by UNDESA and UNDP Inform the High-level Panel of Eminent persons 3 Inter-agency technical support teams

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The Sustainable Development Solutions Network Independent global network of research centres, universities and

technical institutions to help find solutions for some of the world’s most pressing environmental, social and economic problems.

The Network will work with stakeholders including business, civil society, UN agencies and other international organizations to identify and share the best pathways to achieve sustainable development.

Part of the work undertaken in response to the mandate on post‐2015 and the outcome of the Rio + 20 Conference.

Directed by Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs In close coordination with the High‐level Panel of Eminent

Persons on the Post‐2015 Development Agenda

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UN GA Open Working Group

UN General Assembly intergovernmental Open Working Group

Established at 67th session Key objective: to ensure that sustainable

development goals are an integreal part of the post-2015 development framework.

Members: Selection of countries from each region (probably 30)

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Integration post-2015 and Sustainable Development

Current Consensus: One global development agenda that Integrates Post-2015 follow-up and Sustainable Development (Rio+20)• GA resolution 66/288, sept 2012 (the future we want): ‘…

a set of sustainable development goals that should “incorporate in a balanced way all three dimensions of sustainable development and their interlinkages” and “should be coherent with and integrated into the United Nations development agenda beyond 2015’

• HLP report: A Global Partnership: Eradicate poverty and transform economies through sustainable development

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HLP Goal 1 End Poverty, IIlustrative Targets: Bring the number of people living on less than $1.25

a day to zero and reduce by x% the share of people living below their country’s 2015 national poverty line

Increase by x% the share of women and men, communities, and businesses with secure rights to land, property, and other assets

Cover x% of people who are poor and vulnerable with social protection systems

Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters by x%

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Quotes Statistics and Data in HLP Report:

Data revolution ‘…a new international initiative to improve the quality of statistics and information available to people and government’ ‘…a true data revolution would draw on existing and new sources of data to fully integrate statistics into decision making, promote open access to and use of data and increased support for statistical systems’ ‘strengthen data and statistics for accountability and decision-making’ ‘Disaggregating by place, Data broken down by income quintiles’‘Better data and statistics will help governments track progress and make sure their decisions are evidence based; they can also strengthen accountability. This is not just about governments. International agencies, CSOs and the private sector should be involved.’‘Data is one of the keys to transparency, which is the cornerstone of accountability. Too often, development efforts have been hampered by a lack of the most basic data about the social and economic circumstances in which people live.’

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UNTT report16. The format of the MDG framework brought an inspirational vision to gether with a set of concrete and time-bound goals and targets that could be monitored by statistically robust indicators. This has not only helped keep the focus on results, but also motivated the strengthening of statistical systems and use of quality data to improve policy design and monitoring by national governments and international organizations.

26. Given the high degree of global interdependence, setting collective goals and targets to be pursued by the world community will remain mean ingful. In doing so, however, a one-size-fits-all approach should be avoided. Needed flexibility should be ensured to tailor targets to regional, national and sub-national conditions and priorities, while respecting international stand ards, and should be tracked with data disaggregated by sex, age and geog raphy (including rural-urban location).Such tailoring of development targets to national and local circumstances is most effectively and legitimately done through participatory processes.

79. Improving access to geographical information and geospatial data, and building capacities to use scientific information in areas such as climate moni toring, land use planning, water management, disaster risk reduction, health and food security, will allow for more accurate environmental and social im pact assessments and more informed decision-making at all levels.

116. Targets should also be set in a way to measure the prevailing in equalities and sustainability aspects. Defining qualitative indicators and more availability of data disaggregated by sex, age, geography, migrant status and rural-urban location will be critical to monitor both the degree to which devel opment progress is indeed inclusive and sustainable, and the extent to which the needs of the most deprived and vulnerable groups are being addressed. Such indicators and data will also facilitate better assessment of policy effec tiveness and contribute to strengthening accountability. However, producing them will require strengthening statistical capacities in most countries.

117. The ability of people to hold institutions accountable — for delivery of quality services; for responsiveness, recourse and transparency; and for set ting and adjusting priorities and targets — is key to people’s empowerment. Well-defined, rule-of-law-based performance standards and benchmarks for accountability can generate confidence among the public in their institutions, thereby building support for the global development agenda. Pluralistic, inde pendent media may help raise public awareness about development issues, em powering people with information to better monitor implementation and per formance and hold governments accountable. National measures of progress should be complemented with disaggregated data and qualitative information for better understanding of factors contributing to and impeding progress in improving peoples’ lives. These efforts can build on existing household survey programmes, while promoting community-led monitoring, wider access to ICT resources and the use of social media for development.

135. The development of indicators for agreed targets could be tasked to an inter-agency and expert group on indicators, with advice from the UN Statistical Commission, as has been the case with the MDG framework.The group could also be tasked with reviewing the numerical aspects of setting targets, which should be based on accurate assessment of past trends at the global, regional and sub-regional levels.

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OWG progress report

19. Poverty eradication remains the overarching objective of the international community and needs to be central to a proposal on sustainable development goals and the post-2015 United Nations development agenda.

33. To ensure that progress is measurable and measured, it will be important to have quantified targets and to ensure that countries have the necessary data collection and statistical capacities to support robust indicators of progress.

36. Income poverty remains the principal target, but poverty is multidimensional and other dimensions need to be addressed in the sustainable development goals, as they were to a degree in the Millennium Development Goals. That includes universal access to adequate and nutritious food as well as to basic services like water and sanitation, primary health care and education, and modern energy services.

38. Still, to measure progress, it would be important to collect disaggregated data, to ensure that no income group or other social group is left behind.

39. In that way, poverty eradication would be addressed not only as a stand-alone goal but also as a cross-cutting objective in other goals.

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Links for Further Reading:

UNTT: Realizing the Future We Want for all:http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/untaskteam_undf/index.shtml

High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agendahttp://www.post2015hlp.org/

Draft outcome document UN special event:http://www.un.org/en/ga/president/67/issues/mdgs/mdgs.shtml

Open Working Grouphttp://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?menu=1549

The World We Want:http://www.worldwewant2015.org/sitemap

My World 2015:http://www.myworld2015.org/

UN Global Contact:http://www.unglobalcompact.org/

Beyond 2015: http://www.beyond2015.org/

UNDP:http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/mdgoverview/mdg_goals/post-2015-development-agenda/

Power of numbers project:http://fxb.harvard.edu/working-paper-series/