mdgs needs assessment/costing : why mdgs-based planning?-1

MDGs Needs Assessment/Costing : Why MDGs-based Planning?-1

A Presentation by

Barth T. Feese, Head, Costing Unit

Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on MDGs, State House, Abuja.

At MDGs Costing Seminar Organised by the African Institute for Applied Economists, Enugu on 17th march, 2010.

2Millennium Development Goals: Putting People First

Agenda

1. The Millennium Development Goals in Africa and Nigeria

2. Integrating the MDGs into national and State-level strategies


The 8 MDG GoalsEradicating Extreme Poverty and HungerEradicating Extreme Poverty and Hunger

Achieve Universal Primary EducationAchieve Universal Primary Education

Promote Gender Equality and Empower WomenPromote Gender Equality and Empower Women

Reduce Child MortalityReduce Child Mortality

Improve Maternal HealthImprove Maternal Health

Combat HIV, Malaria and Other DiseasesCombat HIV, Malaria and Other Diseases

Ensure Environmental SustainabilityEnsure Environmental Sustainability

Develop a Global Partnership for DevelopmentDevelop a Global Partnership for Development

MDGs: 8 Goals,18 targets, 48 Indicators


Selected MDG Targets for 2015• Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose

income is less than $1 per day

• Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

• Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

• Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate

• Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation


Selected MDG Indicators At A Glance

Nigeria

Sub-Saharan Africa

Low Income

South Asia

Under 5 Mortality Rate (03) 198 171.15 123.39 92

Primary completion rate (02) 73 54 66 80

Improved Sanitation facilities (% of population with access) (02) 38 36 36 35


The MDGs are Shared Goals…• International agreements (such as Monterrey) provide the

right framework for the MDGs• Low income countries need increased ODA to meet Goals• Countries are responsible for good governance • Private flows important but only partial substitute • Market access critical for long-term economic growth

• All countries reaffirmed their commitment to the MDGs at the World Summit 2005

• The MDGs can be met within existing commitments by rich and poor countries


… That Remain to be Operationalized

• Currently the MDGs are aspirations, not operational targets:• Countries do not plan systematically to achieve the

MDGs• Aid is not provided based on countries’ needs• The international development system is not goal

oriented


Understanding Africa’s Special Needs: Beyond the Standard Diagnosis

Africa faces unique structural constraints:• High disease burden• Dependence on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture • Poor transport infrastructure & few navigable rivers• Small internal market size & low population density• Population living far from the coast Governance alone does not explain poverty Each of these constraints can be overcome through targeted

public investments Trade plays a complementary role for long-term economic

development


Epicenters of extreme poverty Using IMR and % underweight


Africa’s unique malaria challenges


African transport costs are very high

Move 1 ton fertilizer 1000 km • USA: $15• India: $30• SS Africa: $100

Double if truck returns empty

Move 1 ton maize: Iowa to Mombasa

(13,600 km): $50 Mombasa to Kampala

(900 km): $100


Railroad networks in Africa & India


The Economic Consequences of Africa’s Special Needs

• Poverty traps result from combination of three factors:1. High minimum capital threshold2. Low savings rates3. High population growth (“capital widening”)

Poverty Trap

k

k’

time

k

k’ (capital per person)

time

Above the Threshold


The MDGs are Feasible

Countries can break out of poverty through combination of:

1. Broad-based public investments at scale in health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental management

2. Sound policies and governance including good economic management

3. Improved access to international trade

There is no “magic bullet” – all are necessary


The MDGs are Affordable

• Typical investment needs in a low-income country: $110 per person per year through to 2015

• To meet the MDGs, low income countries will need more aid and debt relief, alongside increased domestic resource mobilization

• At the global level MDGs are affordable within existing commitment of 0.7% target

• G8 countries promised $50 billion – more than $70 per African – in assistance by 2010

• Macroeconomic stability can be maintained if aid is predictable, grants-based and targeted to investments


Agenda

1. The Millennium Development Goals in Africa

2. Integrating the MDGs into the national (V20:2020, 7-Point Agenda) and State-level strategies (e.g., Delta State’s 3-Point Agenda, Enugu State Devt. Agenda?)


Meeting the MDGs Requires Growth and Investment• Growth is necessary, but not sufficient for MDGs

• Some MDGs require direct investments regardless of economic growth (e.g. maternal mortality, environmental sustainability)

• Reaching the poor & reducing inequality requires direct investments in people, infrastructure & environment

• Public investments in MDGs are critical for growth• Private sector led growth requires minimum

standards in health, education, infrastructure, etc. • Direct investments must complement good economic policies


Integrated Investment Strategies to Meet the MDGs

• All necessary inputs need to be covered

• Investment strategies need to be integrated and outcome-focused

• The UN Millennium Project proposes 7 investment clusters for the MDGs:

1. Rural development2. Urban development3. Health systems, including HIV/AIDS4. Education5. Gender equality6. Environment7. Science, technology and innovation8. Cross-national infrastructure


MDG Investments Can Build Absorptive Capacity

• Capacity development comprises long-term investment strategies in 1. Human resources

– Pre-service training– In-service training– Review of salaries and benefits

2. Infrastructure– Capital costs – Operating expenditures

3. Public management systems– Civil service reforms– Equipment– IT services


Principles of Development Strategies that are Goal-based

Common strategy today Goal-based development strategy

1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDGs Base Year Target Deadline YEARYEAR

? 1990 2005 2008 2015 MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline

MDG

targetLevel of

MDG progress


The Operational Framework for Achieving the MDGs

• Countries align national development strategies with the MDGs, including integrated investment strategies across sectors

• The international community supports these strategies with adequate development assistance

• As requested by governments, UN system provides technical support in strategy design and implementation


Aligning National Strategies with a Goals-based Approach• How can the MDGs be translated into operational targets?

• How can sector strategies based on the MDGs be integrated into the 10 year national development plan (V2020, 5th NDP, and 7-Point Agenda), or Enugu State’s shared priorities, strategic choices, or Development Plan?

• How would the MTEF and annual budgeting processes need to change to reflect the country’s/state’s commitment to the MDGs?

• How can the international system align its support to help governments in preparing and implementing MDG strategies? (UNDP/DFID/World Bank)


Integrated Investment Strategies to Meet the MDGs & National/States’ Strategic Choices

• Conduct a “Needs assessment” to identify the comprehensive package of inputs required• Not about clinics or nurses or medicine!

• Ensure investment strategies are:• Practical!!• Integrated• Outcome-focused

• Build links between long-term strategy and medium-term strategies and annual budgets


Preparing MDG-based PRS - 1• The question is: “what is required (investments, policies,

institutions) to achieve the MDGs?” The UN Millennium Project lists four main stages in preparing an effective MDG-based PRS:

1. Conduct a thorough needs assessment (or costing) that compares the current

situation with the MDG targets, identifying the various investments across sectors that will be needed, in terms of financial, human resources and infrastructure requirements.

• 2. Develop a long term (10 -12 year) framework for action (Vision 2020) for achieving the MDGs based on the needs assessment.


Preparing MDG-based PRS - 2• 3. Construct a mid-term (3 – 5 year) strategy

(MTSS), based on the long term plan, which is attached to a Mid-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) that guides the annual budgeting process.

• 4. Institute a Public Expenditure Management (PEM) framework for monitoring and evaluating results in a transparent and accountable manner (e.g., OPEN).

• Linking Planning, Costing and Budgeting• Costing and budgeting helps the planning process

by ensuring that goals set are affordable, while funding gaps are established for funding sources


Five Core Features of a MDG-Based Strategy

1. Ambition: Targets are at least as ambitious as MDG targets for 2015

2. Scope: The range of sectors identified is broad enough to achieve all the MDG targets

3. Practical Rigor: For each sector, the strategy is based on a detailed, bottom-up assessment of practical needs

4. Timeline: The medium term strategy is nested in a 10-year framework

5. Financing: The financing strategy is determined in line with needs

mdgs needs assessment/costing : why mdgs-based planning?-1

Documents

people firstthe mdgs

proportion of people

economic development

people firstafricas

mdgs costing seminar

mdgs needs assessmentcosting

mdgsbased planning

poor countries