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<ul><li><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development</p><p>Rainer Schlieprainer.schliep@tu-berlin.de</p><p>l d h ft t b li dwww.landschaft.tu-berlin.de</p><p>Indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversityIndicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity A concept for the national level</p><p>CCNCE Conference Bonn, 25.-27.06.2013</p></li><li><p>ProjectProject</p><p>Titl I di t t dd i di t d i di t i t f li tTitle: Indicator set addressing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on biological diversity (on behalf of the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation - BfN)</p><p>Aims: Development of an indicator set with about 20 indicators addressing impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Germany; central component for an expert information system run by the BfN:central component for an expert information system run by the BfN:</p><p>Comprehensive, scientifically sound, and self-contained</p><p>Includes existing modified and newly developed indicators for policyIncludes existing, modified and newly developed indicators for policy advice</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 1</p></li><li><p>TeamTeam</p><p>G F d l A f N t C tiGerman Federal Agency for Nature Conservation(supervision: R. Drschmeister, Dr. U. Sukopp)</p><p>Technische Universitt BerlinTechnische Universitt Berlin(Prof. Dr. Stefan Heiland (lead), Laura Radtke, Rainer Schliep; Robert Bartz, Prof. Dr. Ingo Kowarik)</p><p>HTW Dresden(Prof. Dr. Frank Dziock, Silvia Dziock)</p><p>Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten e.V.(Dr. Christoph Sudfeldt, Sven Trautmann)</p><p>Universitt Stuttgart(Dr. Livia Schffler, Prof. Dr. Stefan Siedentop)</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 2</p></li><li><p>ScopeScope</p><p>Climate changeClimate change</p><p>Ind</p><p>Dire</p><p>direct</p><p>Adaptation of natureAdaptation of natureect impacts</p><p>Land use, energy production</p><p>Adaptation of nature conservation </p><p>strategies and measures</p><p>impacts</p><p>easu es</p><p>Biological diversity:species, populations, biocoenoses, habitats</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 3</p><p>species, populations, biocoenoses, habitats</p></li><li><p>Existing indicator sets and monitoring schemesExisting indicator sets and monitoring schemes</p><p>GLORIA (Global Observation Network in Alpine Environments)</p><p>SEBI (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators, EEA) </p><p>CLIM (Climate change indicators, EEA)</p><p>MOBI-e (Austrian biodiversity monitoring system)</p><p>BDM (Swiss biodiversity monitoring system)</p><p>UK Biodiversity Indicators</p><p>UK Climate Change Indicators</p><p>NBS (German National Biodiversity Strategys indicator system)</p><p>and others</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 4</p></li><li><p>Analysis of existing indicator sets: resultsAnalysis of existing indicator sets: results</p><p>Focus: phenological changes of plant species (impact indicators), partly also animal species (birds, butterflies)</p><p>Rare: Very limited scientific understanding of likely climate change impacts at the level of biocoenoses and ecosystems</p><p>Rare: Indicators on impacts of adaptation measures of other sectors onRare: Indicators on impacts of adaptation measures of other sectors on biodiversity (pressure indicators)</p><p>Missing: Indicators concerning adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures (response indicators)</p><p>Lacking: Transparency in documentation of algorithms</p><p>Frequent: Patchy data, often from short-term field studies</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 5</p></li><li><p>Structure of the proposed indicator setStructure of the proposed indicator set</p><p>Three indication areas with three indication fields per area:Three indication areas with three indication fields per area:</p><p>I. Direct climate change impacts on biological diversity</p><p>Indication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitatsIndication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats</p><p>II. Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a g p g yconsequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors </p><p>Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management</p><p>III. Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures</p><p>Indication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 6</p></li><li><p>Indication area IIndication area I</p><p>Direct climate change impacts on biological diversityDirect climate change impacts on biological diversityIndication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats</p><p>Indicator examples:</p><p>Ph l i l h ( l t d i l i )Phenological changes (plant and animal species)</p><p>Changes in distribution of marine species</p><p>Community Temperature Index for birds</p><p>Changes in community ecology</p><p>Changes in ecosystem ecology</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 7</p></li><li><p>Indication area IIIndication area II</p><p>Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as aIndirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a consequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management</p><p>Indicator examples:</p><p>Loss of permanent grasslandsp g</p><p>Bird species in agricultural lands</p><p>Forest conversion under climate changeForest conversion under climate change </p><p>Recovery of flood plains</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 8</p></li><li><p>Indication area IIIIndication area III</p><p>Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measuresAdaptation of nature conservation strategies and measuresIndication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness</p><p>Indicator examples:</p><p>Consideration of climate change in landscape planning (state and district level)</p><p>Habitat networks (only implemented measures)</p><p>Wilderness and natural succession in forests</p><p>Distribution of autochthonous plant material</p><p>Indicators of effectiveness</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development</p><p>Indicators of effectiveness</p><p>9</p></li><li><p>Indicator fact sheets - exampleIndicator fact sheets example</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 10</p></li><li><p>Challenges of indicator developmentChallenges of indicator development</p><p>1 I i t d t l ki l t d t f t it i1. Inappropriate data: lacking long-term data from permanent monitoring schemes</p><p>2 Interaction with other threats to biodiversity: evidence of biodiversity2. Interaction with other threats to biodiversity: evidence of biodiversity decline due solely to climate change impacts is still limited (Foden et al. 2013); multiple and interacting pressures, CC impacts still comparatively less severe.comparatively less severe.</p><p>3. Weak models: assume that species niches are bioclimatically determined and remain static, but: lacking empirical data, changing interspecific interactions, adaptive capacity of species, novel bioclimatic conditions</p><p>4 To date implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies4. To date, implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies and measures in nature conservation are still hardly to be evaluated.</p><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 11</p></li><li><p>Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development</p><p>Rainer Schlieprainer.schliep@tu-berlin.de</p><p>l d h ft t b li dwww.landschaft.tu-berlin.de</p><p>Thanks to the project team for contributions</p><p>and thank you for your kind attention!and thank you for your kind attention!Dieses Vorhaben wird durch das Bundesamt fr Naturschutz (BfN) mit Mitteln des Bundesministeriums fr Umwelt, Naturschutz undReaktorsicherheit gefrdert.</p><p>CCNCE Conference Bonn, 25.-27.06.2013</p></li></ul>

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