indicators of climate change impacts on ... · indicators of climate change impacts on...
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Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development
Rainer [email protected]
l d h ft t b li dwww.landschaft.tu-berlin.de
Indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversityIndicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity – A concept for the national level
CCNCE Conference Bonn, 25.-27.06.2013
ProjectProject
Titl I di t t dd i di t d i di t i t f li tTitle: „Indicator set addressing direct and indirect impacts of climate change on biological diversity“ (on behalf of the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation - BfN)
Aims: Development of an indicator set with about 20 indicators addressing impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Germany; central component for an expert information system run by the BfN:central component for an expert information system run by the BfN:
Comprehensive, scientifically sound, and self-contained
Includes existing modified and newly developed indicators for policyIncludes existing, modified and newly developed indicators for policy advice
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 1
TeamTeam
G F d l A f N t C tiGerman Federal Agency for Nature Conservation(supervision: R. Dröschmeister, Dr. U. Sukopp)
Technische Universität BerlinTechnische Universität Berlin(Prof. Dr. Stefan Heiland (lead), Laura Radtke, Rainer Schliep; Robert Bartz, Prof. Dr. Ingo Kowarik)
HTW Dresden(Prof. Dr. Frank Dziock, Silvia Dziock)
Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten e.V.(Dr. Christoph Sudfeldt, Sven Trautmann)
Universität Stuttgart(Dr. Livia Schäffler, Prof. Dr. Stefan Siedentop)
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 2
ScopeScope
Climate changeClimate change
Ind
Dire
direct
Adaptation of natureAdaptation of natureect impacts
Land use, energy production
Adaptation of nature conservation
strategies and measures
impacts
easu es
Biological diversity:species, populations, biocoenoses, habitats
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 3
species, populations, biocoenoses, habitats
Existing indicator sets and monitoring schemesExisting indicator sets and monitoring schemes
GLORIA (Global Observation Network in Alpine Environments)
SEBI (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators, EEA)
CLIM (Climate change indicators, EEA)
MOBI-e (Austrian biodiversity monitoring system)
BDM (Swiss biodiversity monitoring system)
UK Biodiversity Indicators
UK Climate Change Indicators
NBS (German National Biodiversity Strategy‘s indicator system)
and others
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 4
Analysis of existing indicator sets: resultsAnalysis of existing indicator sets: results
Focus: phenological changes of plant species (impact indicators), partly also animal species (birds, butterflies)
Rare: Very limited scientific understanding of likely climate change impacts at the level of biocoenoses and ecosystems
Rare: Indicators on impacts of adaptation measures of other sectors onRare: Indicators on impacts of adaptation measures of other sectors on biodiversity (pressure indicators)
Missing: Indicators concerning adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures (response indicators)
Lacking: Transparency in documentation of algorithms
Frequent: Patchy data, often from short-term field studies
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 5
Structure of the proposed indicator setStructure of the proposed indicator set
Three indication areas with three indication fields per area:Three indication areas with three indication fields per area:
I. „Direct climate change impacts on biological diversity“
Indication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitatsIndication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats
II. „Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a „ g p g yconsequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors“
Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management
III. „Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures“
Indication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 6
Indication area IIndication area I
Direct climate change impacts on biological diversity“„Direct climate change impacts on biological diversityIndication fields: Phenology; populations and biocoenosis; habitats
Indicator examples:
Ph l i l h ( l t d i l i )Phenological changes (plant and animal species)
Changes in distribution of marine species
Community Temperature Index for birds
Changes in community ecology
Changes in ecosystem ecology
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 7
Indication area IIIndication area II
Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a„Indirect climate change impacts on biological diversity as a consequence of mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors“ Indication fields: Agriculture, forestry, water management
Indicator examples:
Loss of permanent grasslandsp g
Bird species in agricultural lands
Forest conversion under climate changeForest conversion under climate change
Recovery of flood plains
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 8
Indication area IIIIndication area III
Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measures“„Adaptation of nature conservation strategies and measuresIndication fields: Adaptation of strategies; adaptation of measures; effectiveness
Indicator examples:
Consideration of climate change in landscape planning (state and district level)
Habitat networks (only implemented measures)
Wilderness and natural succession in forests
Distribution of autochthonous plant material
Indicators of effectiveness
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development
Indicators of effectiveness
9
Indicator fact sheets - exampleIndicator fact sheets example
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 10
Challenges of indicator developmentChallenges of indicator development
1 I i t d t l ki l t d t f t it i1. Inappropriate data: lacking long-term data from permanent monitoring schemes
2 Interaction with other threats to biodiversity: evidence of biodiversity2. Interaction with other threats to biodiversity: evidence of biodiversity decline due solely to climate change impacts is still limited (Foden et al. 2013); multiple and interacting pressures, CC impacts still comparatively less severe.comparatively less severe.
3. Weak models: assume that species‘ niches are bioclimatically determined and remain static, but: lacking empirical data, changing interspecific interactions, adaptive capacity of species, novel bioclimatic conditions…
4 To date implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies4. To date, implementation and effectiveness of adaptation strategies and measures in nature conservation are still hardly to be evaluated.
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development 11
Department of Landscape Planning and Landscape Development
Rainer [email protected]
l d h ft t b li dwww.landschaft.tu-berlin.de
Thanks to the project team for contributions…
…and thank you for your kind attention!…and thank you for your kind attention!Dieses Vorhaben wird durch das Bundesamt für Naturschutz (BfN) mit Mitteln des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz undReaktorsicherheit gefördert.
CCNCE Conference Bonn, 25.-27.06.2013