venezuela aff and neg - updates - berkeley 2013

8/13/2019 Venezuela Aff and Neg - Updates - Berkeley 2013

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Aff Updates



Case



Say Yes

Will empirically yes on oil trade issues --- Maduro willing tocompromise

Kapper 13 (Bradley Kapper, writer for NBC, ―US seeking renewed Venezuela ties after Chavez, 01 -09-13,http://nbclatino.com/2013/01/09/us-seeking-renewed-venezuela-ties-after-chavez/)

With Venezuela, the U.S. is hoping to start with stronger counter-narcotics coordination, a challenge given that the Venezuelan government includesofficials subject to U.S. drug ―kingpin sanctions. Other American priorities include energy cooperation and stronger enforcement of sanctions againstIran. The U.S. also fears Iranian efforts to use Venezuela as a base for terrorist or other activity in the Western Hemisphere against American interests.

Maduro and other insiders in Chavez‘s government also seek rapprochement , but want tostart with the first exchange of ambassadors between the two countries since 2010. The U.S. Embassy in Caracas has been without a top envoy sinceChavez rejected Obama‘s nominee and accused him of making disrespectful remarks about Venezuela‘s government. That led Washin gton to revoke the

visa of Venezuela‘s ambassador. Speaking last week, Maduro stressed that the U.S. and Venezuela have ―great ideo logical and political

differences. But he held out the possibility of normalized relations based on mutualrespect. Despite Chavez‘s tirades against the U.S. and what he sees as its attempts to bring down his

government, and U.S. criticism of Venezuela‘s lax efforts against drug traffickers, the two countries have maintainedeconomic relations. The U.S. gets about 10 percent of its oil from Venezuela andremains the Latin American country‘s top purchaser.

Maduro will say yes —creating economic zones for foreign investmentand modeling Chinese economic liberalizationMallett-Outtrim 13 —writer for NSNBC Internatioanl, via VenezuelaAnalysis (Ryan, ―Maduro plans Economic reform, reform ofcurrency exchange, and special economic zones in Venezuela, nsnbc international , 4/26/13 , http://nsnbc.me/2013/04/26/maduro-plans-economic-reform-reform-of-currency-exchange-and-special-economic-zones-in-venezuela/)

Ryan Mallett-Outtrim (VA),- The Venezuelan government hopes to encourage more foreigninvestment and a better relationship with the business community , President Nicolas

Maduro stated yesterday. Announcing the creation of a ―National Savings Fund for Foreign Exchange , Maduro said the government hopesto make currency exchange easier not only for businesses, but also ―travellers, students and Venezuelans living abroad.¶ In a meeting with businessleaders in Zulia state, Maduro indicated that changes to current currency controls are needed not only to ―overcome the parallel dollar , but alsoaddress a backlog of currency exchange applications.¶ According to Maduro, there are pending applications for currency exchanges at the government

rate dating back to 2011.¶ He also invited the private sector to work more with the government

to contribute to the ―development of the productive forces and the country‘seconomy , and announced plans to create ―Special Economic Zones in someregions. These zones would be granted special tax conditions, as well as otherincentives to encourage foreign investment. Although he gave few details, Maduroindicated that they would be modeled on those that developed during China‘s trade liberalisation of the 1980′s. ¶ Maduro stated that more details will be announced soon, and Finance Minister Nelson

Merentes will hold a series of meetings with business leaders across the country from 2 May. The meetings will focus on issues related to currency

exchange, though Maduro also stated that the government will prioritise tackling inflation.¶ ―We are in a transition processtowards building a socialist economic model that merits the promotion of a specialplan of a productive economic revolution, and that includes the participation ofdifferent sectors, he said.¶ Maduro described the private sector as having the financialand political freedom to participate in an ―economic revolution to raiseproductivity and self sustainability. ¶ ―We have a strong and powerful domestic market with purchasing capacity, because

we have a population with job security, good income and strong wages…Now we need a production system to respondto this , he said.

http://nsnbc.me/2013/04/26/maduro-plans-economic-reform-reform-of-currency-exchange-and-special-economic-zones-in-venezuela/






Maduro will say yes —he‘s been improving diplomatic relations,foreign investment, and wants more —anti-Americanism isn‘t a

barrier Auken 6/7 —World Socialist Web Site (Bill Van, ―Venezuela‘s Maduro reaches out to big business and Washington, World Socialist Web Site , 6/7/13 , https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html)

After three months in office, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro , the handpicked successor of the late Hugo Chavez, has put asideleft rhetoric to seek accommodation with Venezuela‘s biggest capitalists as well as

with the Obama administration in Washington .Maduro has repeatedly charged in recent months that US imperialism was conspiring to bring down his government and was the guiding hand behind a

wave of political violence that followed his narrow election victory against right-wing cand idate Henrique Capriles in April. Yet Venez uela‘s Foreign Minister Elias Jaua was all smiles Wednesday, following a 40-minute meeting in Guatemala with US Secretary of State John Kerry.The two, who met privately on the sidelines of the Organization of American StatesGeneral Assembly meeting in Antigua, Guatemala, declared their commitment to,in Kerry‘s words, ―establish a more constructive and positive relationship. This isto include resuming the exchange of ambassadors, which has been suspendedsince late 2010. It was Venezuela that requested the meeting.

―We agreed today there will be an ongoing, continuing dialogue between the StateDepartment and the Foreign Ministry, and we will try to set out an agenda by which we agree on things we can work together , said Kerry.

For his part, Jaua declar ed that ―A good relationship between the government ofPresident Nicolas Maduro and the government of President Barack Obama is whatsuits both peoples, it‘s the guarantee of peace and stability for our peoples. Just last month, Maduro referred to Obama in a public speech as ―the big boss of the devils and accused him of backing the ―fascist right in attack ingthe Venezuelan people.In Guatemala, Jaua said that he had presented Kerry with a report on the violence that followed the Apr il 14 election to choose Chavez‘s successor in which 11 people were killed and 80 injured, most of them Maduro supporters. He gave the US secretary of state an extract of the r eport prepared on theincidents by Venezuela‘s Public Advocate‘s office. He said that the discussion had ―alerted Kerry to the actions of anti -democratic groups in Venezuela, which threaten Venezuelan democracy, stabilityand which often are being supported by political and economic sectors of other countries. In point of fact, the m ost significant ―sectors seeking to destabilize the Venezuelan regime have long been the CIA and the US State Department. Maduro‘s turn toward accommodation with US imperialism has been accompanied by a similar approach to both foreign and domestic capital.

Among the most significant deals in terms of foreign capital was reached late lastmonth with Chevron Corp. Chevron is providing $2 billion in financing forPetroboscan, a joint venture between the US oil giant and Venezuela‘s state -ownedoil company, PDVSA, to boost heavy crude production in the northwestern state ofZulia. Shortly beforehand, PDVSA secured a $1 billion credit line with Houston-

based Schlumberger Ltd., the world‘s largest oilfield services company. While oil exports to the US have declined to about 900 ,000 barrels a day, it remains Venezuela‘s chief customer for oil, resp onsible for 95 percent of thecountry‘s expo rt earnings and roughly half of its federal budget revenue.

From the standpoint of the US-based energy conglomerates, securing dominanceover Venezuela‘s oil reserves, the largest in the world, remains a strategicobjective. The investments by Chevron and Schlumberger make clear that they see the potential for major profits, the Venezuelan government‘srhetoric about ―Bolivarian socialism notwithstanding. Domestically, after charging for months that major Venezuelan capitalists, backed by the US, were wagi ng an ―economic war against his government,Maduro invited the country‘s second -richest individual, Lorenzo Mendoza, the head of the country‘s largest food company, Polar, to meet with him lastmonth at the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas.Both Chavez and Maduro had singled out Polar and Mendoza for attack over the country‘s increasingly severe shortages and rising fo od prices. Holdingthem responsible for hoarding and waging an ―economic war, they threatened to nationalize the firm. For his part, Mendoza, who is worth some $4.5 billion, was an enthusiastic supporter of the US-backed coup that briefly unseated Chavez in April 2002.This history had contributed to his keeping a fairly low profile under Chavez, but it was noted in the Venezuelan media that he mounted a vigorouspublic defense of his company in the face of Maduro‘s recent charges. Mendoza described the meeting as ―very cordial, direct, sincere, adding, ―The president was very kind in listening to us and communicating the need tokee p investing, producing and supplying markets. That is our lifelong commitment, passion and vocation. He said that the two ha d reached anagreement ―not to politicize the issue of food. Vice President Jorge Arreaza provided a similar description of the en counter between the ―working class president and the billionaire. ―The problem‘s been overcome, he said. The meeting with Mendoza was only the most visible of a series of talks between the government and prominent Venezuelan capitalists. Among thedeals reached is the lifting of certain price controls and the easing of currency restrictions.―In another sign of the rapprochement, the hallways of the finance ministry for the first time in years are filled with businessmen in sharp suits,Reuters reported. ―Many carry folders stuffed with requests for greater flexibility in the currency control system and an easing of price controls.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html




The news agency quoted Finance Minister Nelson Merentes stating after one meeting with business executives: ―We‘ve entered a phase of creating closer ties with the privatesector, without ignoring the new socialist economy. After months of charging the big bourgeoisie in Venezuela with ―sabotage, the Maduro government is now currying its favor an d begging it to increaseproduction. This turn is driven by a deepening economic crisis characterized by a decline in growth, soaring inflation and widespread shortages. Venezuela‘s inflation rate is now near 30 percen t, with the bulk of it reflecting the sharp rise in the price of foo d. Meanwhile, the growth rate for thefirst quarter of 2013 amounted to just 0.7 percent. This overall figure, however, masks the severity of the situation.

Venezuela‘s financial sector, which continues to enjoy some of the highest profitrates in the world, saw a 31 percent growth during this period , while manufacturing declined by 3.6percent and construction by 1.2 percent. The scarcity index, which tracks the amount of products missing from store shelves, has hit its highest levelsince the Central Bank began tracking these figures.The accommodation between the Maduro government and Venezuelan capitalists, on the one hand, and Washington, on the other, has taken thepolitical wind out of the sails of the rightist candidate Henrique Capriles, who has continued to charge electoral fraud and condemn Maduro as anillegitimate president. While the Obama administration has yet to formally recognize Maduro‘s close election victory, it has turned a cold shoulder todemands for OAS sanctions against Venezuela. An d Mendoza‘s visit to Miraflores indicates that the billionaire accepts Maduro as legitimate. Clearly, both domestic and foreign capital recognize that behind the left rhetoric and the limited social reforms of ―Bolivarian Socialism, Maduro‘sgovernment defends capitalism and they can do business with it. More fundamentally, continued agitation by the right wing and a further weakening ofthe government under conditions of deepening economic crisis and rising popular discontent poses the danger of provoking a social explosion in the working class.

Maduro will say yes —he‘s already liberalizing currency controls Vyas 13 —writer for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones (Kejal, ―Venezuela pushing for economic, currency controls reform – Barclays,TheWallStreetJournal , 6/10/13, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130610-706898.html)

CARACAS-- Venezuelan authorities are moving toward liberalizing currency controls aspart of a series of "measures that would represent a significant shift in economicpolicy toward moderation," analysts at Barclays said in a note published Monday.The investment bank recommended buying up Venezuelan dollar debt after ending a recent round of meetings with officials in the Finance Ministry as well as Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PdVSA, the oil -rich country's state energy giant.

On the currency front, authorities plan to reopen a dollar-auction system known as Sicadnext month, Barclays said. It added they also are pushing to make legal again a bond-swap market which used to trade Venezuelangovernment bonds and served as an avenue for locals to access hard currency. The swap market, which was known locally as the permuta until it wasshutdown in 2010, may be reopened within the medium term and "would make the current black market legal," the bank said. Venezuela's government applies currency regulations that give it control over access to dollars i n the country. The amount of gr eenbacks being offeredthrough state channels, however, has dropped over the last several months leading to shortages of imported goods and rapid depreciation of local bolivar currency. A dollar in illegal street transactions can fetch as much as VEF30 , according to websites that track the currency black market,compared with the official exchange rate of VEF6.3.Officials earlier this year opened up Sicad as a complementary channel for importers to access much-needed dollars but has only held one auction sofar, leading some analysts to question how effective the sales will be in alleviating dollar demand.

Reopening Sicad and the permuta at weaker exchange rates helps "the publicsector improve its balance sheet, would ease the problem in foreign exchangeflows and help to solve the disruptions to supplies that are affecting [economic]activity," Barclays said .The bank warned, however, that the economy is unlikely to benefit until late this year. "At this point it seems too late to avoid a recession in 2013," itsaid. A spokesman at the Finance Ministry and a spokeswoman at the central bank didn't immediately respond to calls seeking comment.

The comments come as President Nicolas Maduro looks to address economicimbalances left behind by late populist leader Hugo Chavez, who died in Marchafter 14 years in office. Finance Minister Nelson Merentes and central bankPresident Edmee Betancourt have held a series of meetings with private-sectorleaders in recent weeks and say they are also talking to overseas investment banksin an effort to improve market relations after more than a decade of statist policies

and nationalizations.Barclays added that Venezuela's international reserves could jump up 30% to 40% "in the very short term" in a bid to prove to investors thegovernment's ability to pay.

Venezuela will be open —need economic changeRoberts and Daga 13 —Research fellow for economic freedom and growth in the center for international trade and economics, visiting senior policy analyst for economic freedom in Latin Ameri ca at the Heritage F oundation, respectively (James M., Sergio, ―Venezuela: U.S.should push president Maduro toward economic freedom, TheHeritageFoundation , 4/15/13,http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/venezuela-us-should-push-president-maduro-toward-economic-freedom)

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130610-706898.html

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/venezuela-us-should-push-president-maduro-toward-economic-freedom


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130610-706898.html



Use U.S. Leverage¶ The foundations of economic freedom in Venezuela were severely weakened during the 14-year misrule by Chavez. AlthoughChavez‘s death may aggravate instability and further polarize Venezuela, it neednot be that way. Venezuela is in need of immediate and sweeping reforms, butthese changes will take time, effort, determination, and, above all, dedicatedreformers in Venezuela.¶ The Obama Administration should step into the breach

with active and forward-looking policies to bring Venezuela back into theglobalized economic system.

Maduro will say yes —he‘s already been pragmatic, and can model Brazil to solveintegration and anti-AmericanismHalabi 13 —postgraduate at the London School of Economics, completing an MSc in International Political Economy, alumnus of theUniversity of Toronto (Sammy, 5/3/13, ―Reasons for Optimism in Venezuela, GlobalRiskInsights , http://globalriskinsights.com/2013/05/03/spring-is-coming-we-should-be-optimistic-about-venezuela/)

But Maduro is not Chavez. He is a man from the people, but not a man of the people. Though he may say the same things, he does not talk the same way. The recent election results, where Chavez‘s 11 -point victory over opposition leader Henrique Capriles was reduced to a disputed outcome, issymptomatic of this. Understanding this is fundamentally important in predicting the coming trajectory of the Venezuelan state.

Though Venezuela will continue to be able to export oil, slightly mitigating some ofChavez‘s more disastrous econ omic policies, Maduro sits on a ticking time bomb.Inflation is sky high, moving past 30%. Murder rates are skyrocketing whileforeign investment continues to plummet due to past expropriations. And withincreased American energy independence the era of $100 oil may be coming to anend.Chavez had both the ideological conviction and public support necessary to

withstand pressures to liberalize and integrate the Venezuelan economy in theface of such terrible indicators . Yet given his weakened mandate, and the fracturedpolitical climate under which he operates, Maduro will not be able to withstandsuch pressures for long.

Already there have been signs that Venezuela is inching towards change , with Maduro goingso far as to temporarily open a back-channel wit h the US State Department during Chavez‘s cancer treatments. While it would be difficult to see an

overnight reversal of US-Venezuelan relations, th ese subtle steps are more indicative of a pragmatistthan an ideologue . This is cause for optimism, and may be the root of better ties

with Venezuela‘s biggest export market in the medium term. In the short term, expect Venezuela to pursue its liberalization on a more regional

basis. Importantly, Brazil very quickly recognized Maduro‘s government in spite ofthe electoral controversies. Additionally, Brazil and Peru have shown that there isa viable ―third way through which Venezuela can integrate into the internationalsystem. States like these have contributed to the general decline in anti-Americansentiment, and give Venezuela a workable model for change.For all the fever and emotion associated with Latin America, the logic of Venezuela‘s economic problemsremains cold and calculatin g. Maduro is not the reincarnation of Chavez and attempts to analyze

Venezue la‘s future on its Chavismo past are superficial at best. In short, spring iscoming.

Says yes – Kerry and Jaua laid a platform for future engagementsOBRV 6/6 , Embassy of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, (―Secretary Kerry Thanks President Maduro for Positive Meeting Between Venezuela and U.S. , http://venezuela -us.org/2013/06/06/secretary-kerry-thanks-president-maduro-for-positive-meeting-between-venezuela-and-u-s/, 6/6/2013) Kerwin

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry thanked Venezuelan President Nicolás Madurofor encouraging a meeting Wednesday with Foreign Minister Elías Jaua in order to

begin a new phase in relations between the countries. ―I want to thank the foreign

http://globalriskinsights.com/2013/05/03/spring-is-coming-we-should-be-optimistic-about-venezuela/






minister, I want to thank President Nicolás Maduro for taking the step to meeth ere on the sidelines of this conference. I think it was a very important step, Kerry saidafter his 40-minute meeting with Minister Jaua, which was held during the 43rd General Assembly of the Organization of American States in Antigua,

Guatemala. ―I think it has been a very positive encounter, he added, saying ―We agreedtoday, both of us, Venezuela and the United States, that we would like to see ourcountries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive

relationship. The Secretar y of State confirmed what was said by Minister Jaua, who told the press upon leaving the meeting that thetwo had set ―a positive agenda, agreeing to form a high level committee to discussissues of shared interest and repair relations between the countries. Kerry said:―We agreed today that there will be an ongoing, continuing dialogue at a high level between the State Department and the foreign minis try. Tapped to work on the bilateral relationship are Assistant Secretary of State for WesternHemisphere Affairs Roberta Jacobson and the new chargé d ‘affaires of the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, Calixto Ortega. President Mad uro

spoke Tuesday before the meeting, saying ―it is important because it is going to allow us to directlytransmit to the government of President Obama the vision that the Venezuelangovernment has of what relations should be between our two governments.

Venezuela says yes – Kerry‘s peace talk patched up relations Pineo and Powell 6/13 , Dr. Ronn Pineo is a Senior Research Fellow at COHA and Chair of the Department of History atTowson University. This article was written with the collaboration of COHA Research Associate Laura Powell. (―The Promise Of New Beginning: A

Thaw In US-Venezuelan Relations – Analysis , http://www.eurasiarev iew.com/13062013-the-promise-of-new-beginning-a-thaw-in-us-venezuelan-relations-analysis/, 6/13/2013) Kerwin

The announcement that Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua met with U.S.Secretary of State John Kerry on June 5 is extraordinarily good news. Themeeting, held in the colonial city of Antigua, Guatemala, came as representativesgathered for the General Meeting of the Organization of American States. Warmsmiles and friendly conversation were everywhere. It marks the ―start of a goodrelationship of respect, offered Jaua, and a step toward creating ―a moreconstructive and positive relationship, echoed Kerry. What makes this diplomatic initiative soencouraging is that until this development United States relations with President Hugo Chávez‘s (and now Nicolás Maduro‘s) Venezuela too oftenseemed only to feature irate political blasts from both sides. As Chávez moved Venezuela to the left he alienated many in the country‘s middle class whohad originally supported him and deepened the hatred of the nation‘s élites, people who had bitterly mistrusted him from the start. These groups hadthe ear of the George W. Bush administration, which increasingly hardened its opposition to the Chávez regime. Chávez seemed to delight in enflamingthe situation, comparing Bush to the devil or a donkey, and demonizing the United States as a ―terrorist state. Relations de teriorated as debates grew

more fierce and political tensions more unbridgeable. The United States funneled significant funding to the Venezuelan opposition to Chávez throughthe National Endowment for Democracy. When the coup attempt came in April 2002, the United States Ambassador Charles Samuel Shapiro met withthe coup‘s front man, Pedro Carmona, providing, in effective, de facto recognition of the coup government. In explaining the U .S. stance on thetakeover, one Bush White House briefer challenged the notion that a fair democratic context could ever exist under Chávez, lecturing reporters thatdemocracy means more than ―just getting more votes than the other guy, an odd argument for a Bush administration official to push. The OAS,meeting in San José, Costa Rica, issued a declaration condemning the coup. The United States refused to join the collective statement. When theCarmona coup fell apart after 72 hours, the United States was left looking ridiculous and dangerously retrograde: isolated diplomatically anddetermined to turn back the clock to the bad old days of uncritical U.S. support for military coups. Diplomatic relations broke down between thenations, with ambassadors and each other‘s officials recalled. With the start of his administration in 2009, President Barack Obama had severalchances to make a fresh start and mend relations. He met with Chávez in Port of Spain, Trinidad in April that year at the Summit of the Americas,calling for ―a new chapter in U.S. -Venezuelan relations. But after the meeting Obama seemed to lose any interest in closer ties, and never showed anyreal enthusiasm for Latin American issues. Obama appeared to be content to allow inertia to guide U.S. policy for the region. And so the Bush-erapolicies toward Venezuela rolled on, directionless, unexplored, and unreformed. Even today the two nations have no ambassador-level diplomatic

representation. Given this troubled past, the potential return to diplomatic normalcy is very good news indeed. Despite everything, there remains a good foundation forrelations for the two nations to build upon. Trade ties remain strong. Nearly half of Venezuela‘s export trade and a third of import trade is with the United States. Venezuela is the 14th largest trad ing partner of the United States and the

fourth largest supplier of imported oil. Presi dent Obama‘s most recent hours could be the finest inhis policy for the region. It is time for the United States to return to following its best instincts, such as the deeply humane vision that at least initially underlay the Alliance for Progress. President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry have taken animportant first step toward the promotion of regional harmony which holds thepromise of helping lift Washington back to the high esteem it once had in theregion. Venezuela, through the creation of ALBA and other foreign policyinitiatives, has now taken the lead in placing poverty reduction and regionaleconomic development at the forefront of the inter-American agenda. The United



States should move swiftly to restore diplomatic relations with Venezuela, to jointhe other American states in recognizing the victory of Nicolás Maduro in the April14 election, and then join with Venezuela on advancing the goals of povertyreduction and economic development in the hemisphere. There is much to do. Atlong last, perhaps, there is a beginning.



2ac Maduro DA

No link --- at worst Maduro‘s positive response to the plan will bedelayed until it is politically expedient but he is still likely to say yes

because it is in his political self-interest to do so. That ‘s Shifter.

Maduro‘s legitimacy and power are declining now The Economist, 13 (6/8/2013, ―Latin America‘s Venezuela problem: Ostrich diplomacy; Venezuela‘s neighbours studiously ignorethe crisis unfolding next door, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21579067-venezuelas-neighbours-studiously-ignore-crisis-unfolding-next-door-ostrich-diplomacy, JMP)

The reason for all the huffing and puffing is that Mr Capriles, who came within an ace of winning a snap presidential election on April 14th, has

challenged the result in the supreme court and is seeking to persuade the region‘s governments of his case. Mr Maduro is the chosen successor of

Hugo Chávez, who died of cancer in March, five months after being re-elected. He heads a weak administration beset bypolitical and economic problems and desperate to hang on to the internationalsupport that Chávez built up over more than a decade of oil diplomacy. With theChávez charisma gone, the new president‘s legitimacy in doubt and the moneyrunning out , bluster is one of the few resources not in short supply.

Boosting oil production and investment key to saving Madur o‘spresidency

Alic, 13 --- geopolitical analyst, co- founder of ISA Intel in Sarajevo (4/15/2013, Jen, ―Foreign Oil & Gas Companies Look to Status Quo in Venezuela, http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html, JMP)

―The main energy issue for Venezuela is that oil production is struggling , down from a peakof about 3.2 million barrels per day in 1998 to less than 2.8 million bpd now. One would hope that fixing infrastructure, completing refinery repairs andconstruction, and investing in exploration and new technology would be priorities but Maduro will not have funds to invest unless he makescontroversial cuts to social programs, according to Southern Pulse, which does not believe that Maduro will attempt to cut f uel subsidies any timesoon.

A top priority for Maduro will be boosting refining capacity , says Southern Pulse. Towards this end,

Maduro may be willing to negotiate if a partner steps forward to build a new refinery, which is a goal Chavez failed to realize.―If PDVSA fails to increase production, PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez may bereplaced this year . One way for Maduro to keep his presidency afloat is to bringnew proven wells online in the Orinoco Belt; but that will require majorinvestment . PDVSA may need more than a minority-partner-with-a-service- contract at those fields if they want to start pumping soon.

Expanding oil investment will help Maduro stay in powerCampbell, 13 (4/16/2013, Darren, ―A new leader could signal change for Venezuela‘s troubled oil and gas sector; If Nicolas Maduro canreverse the industry's decline, it could siphon off investment in Alberta's oil sands, http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/201 3/04/a-new-leader-could-signal-change-for-venenzuelas-oil-and-gas-sector/, JMP)

That‘s because Venezuelan heavy oil is a competitor to the bitumen and heavy oil Alberta produces, and as long as the Venezue lan oil and gas industryis badly underperforming, some of the investment that could be going to develop its reserves will flow to the oil sands.But now that Maduro is the new boss in Venezuela, is he likely to reverse the decline?Devon Energy Big BoxTo gain some insight into that question, I contacted Roger Tissot – a native of Colombia who is now a British Columbia-based industry consultant whospecializes in South America. Last June, Tissot wrote an essay on Chavez and the future of the Venezuela oil and gas industry that appeared in AlbertaOil.Maduro was Chave z‘s hand -picked successor, and knowing that, Tissot says no one should expect a drastic reversal of policies – or a drastic turnaroundin the industry‘s fortunes.

However, the status quo can‘t continue , either. Maduro needs oil and gas revenue to fundthe country‘s social programs and keep the country from falling into chaos. A

better run, more free market-leaning oil and gas industry will help Maduroaccomplish this and keep him in power longer.

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21579067-venezuelas-neighbours-studiously-ignore-crisis-unfolding-next-door-ostrich-diplomacy



http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/Foreign-Oil-Gas-Companies-Look-to-Status-Quo-in-Venezuela.html







Therefore, Tissot thinks Maduro has little choice but to shake things up when it comes to oil and gas matters.

―One could expect a government more accessible to foreign investments, andforeign investors concerns (rule of law, security of payments, stability ofcontracts.) Although it is too early to say, one should expect the Venezuelan oil sectors – after years of stagnation and mismanagement – to

perhaps start showing some signs of life again, he wrote in an email exchange. ―How soon and how deep is somethingthat will depend on how Mr. Maduro‘s administration pe rforms .

U.S. support will help Maduro make gradual changes and improveties with U.S. --- necessary to build coalitions at home and abroad tomaintain legitimacy.Payan, 13 --- visiting fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy (3/6/201 3, Tony, ―Chavez's death offers U.S. a chance tofoster change, http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Chavez-s-death-offers-U-S-a-chance-to-foster-4334009.php, JMP)

The March 5 death of Hugo Chavez , Venezuela's president since 1998, means that change is coming. The change is not necessarily for

the better - but it may represent an opportunity to reboot the relationship between the

U nited S tates and Venezuela, and perhaps between the U nited S tates and all of Latin America .President Obama did the right thing by reaching out to Venezuela as a nation. He correctly sees Chavez's death as a "new chapter" in the history of Venezuela. But he should now reach out to Vice President Nicolás Maduro. This may sound counterintuitive, but here is why.Chavez's death portends a perilous road ahead. The country will have to hold elections within a month, and Maduro will surely run. Within hours of the president's death, Maduro was laying the groundwork by accusing the United States of espionage, expelling an Ameri can diplomat, blaming a U.S.-led plot for the cancer that killed Chavez, and appealing to the United Socialist Party of Venezuela to maintain unity. Maduro soundedmore like a candidate than a vice president in mourning.The United States must look past this rhetoric. Maduro stands a good chance at winning the presidency and will need the domestic and internationalsupport that the charismatic Chavez did not require.In reaching out to Maduro, however, the United States must not overplay its hand. Doing so would make Maduro the inevitable successor - and createfor him the opportunity to rally support by portraying America as the enemy - instead of having to run on a crumbling economy and an excessivepersonalization of power in Venezuela. At the same time, the United States should assure the opposition that it supports no one in parti cular. Chavez's death will embolden a unitedopposition, which could rally around Henrique Capriles, the governor of Miranda, whom Chavez defeated in the 2012 elections.Capriles could win, but his election will be an uphill battle; to win he will have to appeal to many of Chavez's supporters. Were he to win, Capriles would face a deeply divided country and the monumental tasks of decentralizing power, restoring the economy and finding a way to unite a country burdened by crushing poverty, income inequality and high crime rates. If Capriles comes to power with only the support of theupper and upper-middle classes of Venezuela, he will not be able to effectively govern; interference from the military and a grassroots movementagainst his administration could cripple his government.Thus, Maduro may be the best hope for the United States. He would represent the interests of the many unhappy poor - not only in Venezuela butthroughout Latin America.

Chavez's death may create the opportunity for Maduro, with U.S. support , tomake gradual changes within Venezuela and the country's relations with the U nited

S tates.

What is not likely to change, however, is the flow of oil from Venezuela to the United States. Chavez's death does not r epresent a threat to oil supplyfrom Venezuela. The country remains an important energy exporter, and it depends on that income. Venezuela's relations with its neighbors - Brazil, Colombia and Cuba - will likely continue unchanged in the short term, precisely because Venezuela'scommercial relations are too important.If Maduro wins the presidency, a hard stand vis-à-vis the United States will benefit him and his party politically, and will represent an escape valve formany Latin American citizens who feel the continent's prosperity has done little for them. But this should not deceive the United States.

Chavez was , in a way, a one-of-a-kind man , and his power stemmed from his personality. There is no one who can take his place and whoever comes next will need to build coalitions athome and abroad to maintain legitimacy .

This is an opportunity for change, and it must be seized with thoughtfulness and diplomacy.

http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Chavez-s-death-offers-U-S-a-chance-to-foster-4334009.php





--- XT: No Legitimacy Now

Close election and declining economy are taking Maduro‘s legitimacy Meacham, 13 --- director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (4/16/2013, Carl, ―Venezuela

Post- Election: Can Maduro Govern? http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern, JMP)

Surprising many analysts and pollsters, Henrique Capriles of the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) secured over 49 percent of the vote compared toNicolas Maduro‘s 50.6 percent. Maduro‘s narrow victory portends trouble in consolidating his power as Venezuela's president and holding together theruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).Capriles has called for a recount of the votes, citing the close margin and alleged widespread irregularities. This has thrown into question how Venezuela‘s National Electoral Council (CNE)—whose director has already stated that the results are ―irreversible — will respond. Although few expect a

recount to overturn Sunday's result, Maduro‘s weak showing mea ns that he has little or nomandate to lead the country .Q1: What can we expect in the short term? A1: Capriles‘s call for a recount has raised many questions about how the current government might p roceed. Though Capriles‘s campaign cites over3,000 instances of electoral mischief, and has implied that there were many more, at this time there does not appear to be enough votes to be found tooverturn the result. Unless it can be demonstrated soon that Maduro committed massive fraud, given Venezuela‘s votin g system which prints a paper ballot after voting in case of a recount, it will be difficult for the opposition to make the case that the current government stole the election. Reportscirculated Monday that Maduro would move to have himself sworn-in before any audit can take place, calling into question the government's intentionsregarding a recount. Given the close finish, Maduro's rush to be sworn-in makes for a very tense political climate.Q2: Where does the MUD go from here?

A2: Capriles‘s strong showing will likely boost the MUD‘s efforts in the short -termand will likely see new opposition-led efforts to thwart government initiativesunder the new president. Capriles himself will likely be at the head of these effortsand will likely continue to hammer away at the legitimacy of Maduro‘s victory .But longer-term prospects for the party are more difficult to gauge. Maduro will now be president until 2019 and legislative elections will not take placeuntil 2015, giving the opposition few opportunities t o seize momentum from yesterday‘s showing into future races. If the MUD is able to capitalize on

its strong showing, if Maduro fumbles with his handling of the economy during the beginning of his presidency, and if demonstrates that he is unable to keep hiscoalition together, the opposition may face better electoral prospects movingforward . But with the PSUV still firmly in control of all branches of the government, the MUD still has a difficult road ahead.Q3: How will Maduro‘s showing affect his ability to govern?

A3: In many ways, the results reflect a disaster for Maduro and likely signify the continueddecline of Venezuela‘s economy . The results also mean that political divisions within Maduro'scoalition will worsen . Maduro‘s lack of political experi ence and weak political base caused many to wonder how he might holdtogether the numerous factions that make up the PSUV, even with an easy victory. Now, with the elections' close results, how Maduro responds to voters‘ frustrations, from high inflation t o rising violent crime rates, will come under increasing scrutiny. If Maduro is unable to secure quickimprovements in these arenas, he may find himself facing a quick backlash from former supporters. Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assemblyand wid ely considered Maduro‘s main rival, raised eyebrows by tweeting during election night that the PSUV needed to undergo a perio d of self-criticism. This was viewed by many as Cabello trying to increase his appeal with those moderate Chavistas who voted for Capriles.

Lacking the strong base of support and resounding electoral victories that Chávezenjoyed, Maduro is likely to find rival factions within the PSUV more assertive.

Add to this a reinvigorated opposition, and prospects for Maduro‘s ability to runthe state appear poor at best.

Maduro is politically weak —economy, corruption, social inequalityRoberts and Daga 13 —Research fellow for economic freedom and growth in the center for international trade and economics, visiting senior policy analyst for economic freedom in Latin Ameri ca at the Heritage Foundation, respectively (James M., Serg io, ―Venezuela: U.S.should p ush president Maduro toward economic freedom, TheHeritageFoundation , 4/15/13,http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/venezuela-us-should-push-president-maduro-toward-economic-freedom)

Hugo Chavez‘s hand -picked successor, former trade union boss Nicolás Maduro, appears to have defeated Governor Henrique Capriles by a narrow

margin in a contentious and hard-fought special election on April 14. Venezuela is in such shambles after 14 yearsof seat-of-the-pants mismanagement that Maduro —assuming his victory isconfirmed —may ultimately be forced to pursue more moderate policies and seekhelp from the U.S. to restore stability. The Obama Administration and Congress should exploit this opening by using U.S. leverage to push Venezuela to turn from Chave z‘s failed experimentin oil- cursed[1] ―21st-century socialism toward economic freedom. An Economy in Ruins

http://csis.org/publication/venezuela-post-election-can-maduro-govern







The foundations of economic freedom in Venezuela have crumbled. When Chaveztook office in 1999, Venezuela scored 54 out of 100 possible points in The HeritageFoundation/Wall Street Journal‘s annual Index of Economic Freedom. Today,however, after 14 years of Chavez‘s soft authoritarian populism, Venezuela meritsa score of just 36 points. This nearly 20-point plunge is among the most severeever recorded by a country in the history of the Index . Its 2013 rank —174th out of179 countries —places Venezuela among the most repressed nations in the world.[ 2]

Venezuela‘s dismal economic freedom score is reflected in statistics that translateinto real-time hardship for Venezuelans, who must spend more of their incomeson higher prices for necessities —if they can find them on empty store shelves. There are scarcities ofnearly all staple food and fuel products . In fact, according to the Banco Central of Venezuela‘s (BCV) shortages index, Venezuela faces the most severe food shortages in four years.[ 3] And what food is available comes at a price: Mary O‘Grady reports in The Wall StreetJournal that ―over the past 10 years inflation in food and nonalcoholic beverages is 1,284%. [4]

Financial disequilibrium in Venezuela is the result of a sharply widening fiscaldeficit that reached almost 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year .[5]Government control of the formerly independent BCV also contributed to a massive expansion of the money supply. There are anecdotal reports inCaracas of people paying as much as 23 bolívars for one U.S. dollar in the black market as of early April. The official rate is just 6.3 bolívars per dollar —and that is after a significant 32 percent devaluation in February.[6]

These problems were aggravated by Chavez‘s foreign adventurism — which drained billions ofpetrodollars from the economy to keep afloat the failed economy in Fidel Castro‘s Cuba— as well as generous subsidies to his Chavista cronies in theregion through such schemes as ALBA and PetroCaribe.Corruption and Weak Rule of Law As reported in the Index, political interference in Venezuela‘s judicial system has becomeroutine, and corruption is rampant . The landscape in Caracas and elsewhere in thecountry is littered with half-finished, publicly funded infrastructure and housingprojects. The government funds needed to complete them often disappear. As government expanded under Chavez, corruption became institutionalized. Chavez doubled thesize of the public sector, many of whose 2.4 million[7] employees have no real jobother than to work to keep the regime in powe r. A World Economic Forum (WEF) survey found little trust among businesses, politicians, the judicial system, and the police in Venezuela.[8] The tragic result is that Venezuela is now one of the most dangerouscountries of the world. According to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory, in 2012 nearly 22,000 people were murdered.[9]

An inefficient and non-transparent regulatory environment that is hostile toprivate foreign direct investment obstructs long-term development and hampersentrepreneurial growth . The investment regime is tightly controlled by the state and favors investors from China, Russia, Iran, and

other democracy-challenged countries.[10] Investor protection in Venezuela is ranked at 140 out of 144 countries, according to the WEF report.[11] In1998, before Chavez took power, there were more than 14,000 private industrialcompanies in Venezuela; in 2011, after 13 years of extensive nationalizations andexpropriations, only about 9,000 remained.[12]The Chavez government did make one product very inexpensive for Venezuelans: Generous energy subsidies mean a car can be filled up with 15 gallons

of gasoline for less than one U.S. dollar.[13] Although that might buy short-term political advantage for the Chavista government, in the longterm these energy subsidies are very destructive to future economic growth, since

Venezuelan companies have a distorted cost base and thus cannot competeglobally . Operations of the state oil company, PDVSA, have also deteriorated significantly under Chavez. When he took office, PDVSA wasproducing 3.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d); today, it is down to 2.5 bbl/d.[14]Social Programs and Inequality

Ironically, Chavez‘s years in power did not result in much reduction of poverty andinequality . Although some measures of income inequality (such as the Gini coefficient) did improve under Chavez,[15] according to a recently

published research paper by Darryl McLeod and Nora Lustig[16] that used data for 18 Latin American countries, market democraciessuch as Chile and Brazil were far more successful at reducing inequality andpoverty than the populist Chavista regimes .

Despite its vast oil wealth, Venezuela‘s economic growth performance has also been poor.Between 1999 and 2012, average annual per capita growth was just 1.1 percent , while inthe top four Latin American countries (Panama, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Chile) the rate was 3.6 percent.[17] Not surprisingly, the rate ofprivate investment in Venezuela —under 5 percent —is also one of the lowest in the region. In Peru and Chile, it is almost 20 percent.[18]



Maduro is politically tanked —economy is in the rut and marginal victory discredits himPadgett 13 —Miami- based journalist and writer for TIME (Tim, ―Venezuela‘s Election: Even if Nicolás Maduro won, he lost, TIME: World ,4/15/13, http://world.time.com/2013/04/15/venezuelas-election-even-if-nicolas-maduro-won-he-lost/)

Here is the one unmistakable reality of Sunday‘s special presidential election in Venezuela: even if Nicolás Maduro won, he

lost . This race had a rarefied gauge, and it wasn‘t simply the vote tally. It was whether the authoritarian-socialistmodel left by the firebrand Hugo Chávez, who died in office because of cancer lastmonth after a 14-year reign, can survive without his demigod presence . That is, his actual

presence and not his reincarnation as a bird, as Maduro goofily claims the late Chávez appeared to him recently. By defeating hiscentrist rival Henrique Capriles by an embarrassingly tight margin of 50.7% to49.1% — after Chávez routed Capriles just six months ago by 11 points — Maduro,

whom Chávez had handpicked as his successor, laid bare two things aboutChavismo without Chávez . The first is that el comandante, who always ran a one-caudillo show, failed to groom anyone who could fill his red beret politically. Thesecond is that Venezuelans, with Chávez‘s blustering figure gone, now recognizethe raft of economic and social messes he left behind. And that makes the political landscape ahead in Venezuela, which holds the world‘s

largest oil reserves, volatile if not potentially violent . Maduro, who to his credit said he‘d accept the full voterecount Capriles is demanding, called his win ―a fair, legal and constitutional triumph, and it probably was, despite opposition con cerns about theChavista- packed National Election Council, known as CNE. But Capriles argued he‘d scored an equally important vict ory by exposing how vulnerable

Chávez‘s United Socialist Party (PSUV) is in the absence of the late President‘s charismatic bond with its base. ―This system,Capriles declared, ―is a sand castle. Yet however flimsy it may be — and the Venezuelan oppositi on, despite Sunday‘s impressive performance, is no reassuring rock, either — Maduro and the Chavista leadership, including military honchos who havestrongly hinted they won‘t accept an opposition President , have insisted since Chávez‘s cancer wasdiagnosed two years ago that only their leftist, anti-U.S. Bolivarian revolution is divinely anointed to rule. Now, with their humiliated backs against a wall, and bereft of the political tools their exalted leader possessed, the question is how heavy a hand they‘ll resort to in order to preserve Chavismo‘sdominance — and the petrowealth it presides over.The wild card is Maduro himself, whose lack of an electoral mandate means he has to worry not only about an emboldened opposition but also aboutchallenges from inside his PSUV. Chávez was never quite the dictator his foes claimed, but he was notorious for measures like ―antidefamation laws

that made insulting him a criminal offense. Maduro, 50, a former bus driver and union leader, is a die-hard acolyte of Cuba‘s communist regime and its rigidly vertical power structure;and as a result, says Javier Corrales, an expert on Venezuelan politics at AmherstCollege in Massachusetts, ―the fear is that he‘ll go after dis sent now to make up forhis weak position, that he‘ll see sabotage of the fatherland and the revolution allaround him . That‘s an especially valid concern, Corrales notes, since ―Maduro‘s wing of Chavismo is actuallynot the strongest. Chavistas like the National Assembly president, DiosdadoCabello, who wields closer ties to business and the armed forces than Maduro has,may now smell blood in the water, making Maduro a potentially more defensiveand authoritarian leader.

But any new Venezuelan leader, mandate or no mandate, would chafe at the criseson his Bolivarian plate . Chávez certainly deserves kudos for using Venezuela‘s vast oil resources to reduce its inexcusable poverty.

But his often reckless economic MO may have undermined that very crusade in the long run. L avish and indiscriminate socialspending has spawned a currency debacle — the street exchange of more than 20

bolívares to the U.S. dollar mocks the official rate of just over six to the dollar — which in turn has helped make Venezuela‘s in flation rate, which consistently tops20%, among the world‘s highest . Chávez‘s nationalization of hundreds of privatecompanies has left the country‘s nonoil sector woefully unproductive , but even the state-run

oil monopoly, Petróleos de Venezuela, suffers from significant underinvestment. Food shortages, energy blackouts andinfrastructure breakdowns have become increasingly common — as has officialcorruption, the plague Chávez came to power decrying.Some analysts insist the economic perils are exaggerated. ―Opponents of the Venezuelan government arehoping for an ‗inflation -devaluation‘ spiral that will help bring down the

http://world.time.com/2013/04/15/venezuelas-election-even-if-nicolas-maduro-won-he-lost/

http://world.time.com/2013/04/15/venezuelas-election-even-if-nicolas-maduro-won-he-lost/



government, Mark Weisbrot, director of the left -leaning Center for Economic andPolicy Research in Washington, D.C., wrote recently in the Guardian. ―But none of theseproblems present a systemic threat to the economy. Others, however, aren‘t as sanguine: many ratings agencies now consider V enezuelan debt amongthe riskiest in South America. And that‘s hardly helped by the security em ergency Chávez let fester during his presidency, which has saddled Venezuela with South America‘s highest murder rate and made Caracas one of the world‘s most dangerous capitals today. The violent crime crisis, in fact, points up Chavismo‘s core flaw perhaps better than any other: Chávez‘s subordination of democratic pillars like thelegislative and judicial branches to his whims has handed heirs like Maduro a more institutionally dysfunctional Venezuela. If voters were trying to tellMaduro and the Chavist as anything on Sunday, it‘s that Chávez‘s demise has made it more apparent to them that his revolution wasn‘t the ―21st centu rysocialism he insisted it was. Early on in Chavez‘s reign, I often sat down with his younger presidential aides and asked them about the international community‘s fears that heaspired to be the next Fidel Castro — something Chávez in later years would freely admit. Back then most of those Chavistas winced: ―Fidel is the oldLatin American left, they sniffed. Or about growing rumors that Chávez wanted to nix presidential term limits and rule for life. That‘s exactly what helater did, but back then they insisted, ―No, he won‘t, that would be a return to Latin America‘s bad old caudillo days. Or that he‘d nationalize largeswaths o f Venezuela‘s economy and forge bosom -buddy alliances with human-rights pariahs like Iran just to spite the U.S. It all came to pass, of course— but back then, I heard denial on all counts from the ―21st century socialists. Today, if I ever mention this to Chavistas, they dismiss my ―excessive bourgeois thinking. To which I can only say after Sunday: it looks like Venezuelans would like to see more bourgeois thinking. Maduro may well be savvy enough to get that(though his rather boorish campaign attempts to convince voters that the unmarried Capriles is gay make me wonder). But the irony is that a large blocof voters may well consider the 40-year-old Capriles — who stumped for the socialist- capitalist ―third - way project that has proved so successful un der

more moderate leftist leaders in Brazil — to be a more 21st century socialist than Maduro is. E ither way, Sunday left littledoubt that while Chavismo narrowly won a presidential election, it certainly lostany divine claim to rule. And that was the voters talking, not a bird.



--- XT: Expanding Oil Production Saves Maduro

Expanding oil production is key to sustain Maduro‘s presidency Kalms, 13 --- analyst specializing in Middle East and Latin American national security affairs, Masters in International Affairs fromColombia (3/29/2013, Dominic, ―Hot Issue: After Chávez: Succession in Venezuela, http://www.jamestown.org/single-hot-

issues/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=40669&tx_ttnews[backPid]=61&cHash=284ee84f6ffe1c0745b3f186a09e1dff, JMP)

Oil After Chávez

Oil not only plays an important role in Venezuelan foreign policy but is quiteliterally the economic lifeline of the country , accounting for 94 percent of total exports, 50 percent of its the budgetand 30 percent of its GDP; it is estimated that Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world with 297.4 billion barrels of extra-heavy crude and

bitumen in the Orinoco Belt. [6] Oil essentially propelled Chávez into the presidency and kepthim in power as he tapped the cash flow from the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to initiate generous domestic spending

programs. If Maduro expects to benefit similarly from this vast oil reserve, he will haveto address Chávez‘s reckless energy policies.

From 1998-2013 Venezuela witnessed a 40 percent decline in total crude exportsand a 30 percent decline in total crude output costing the government billions in revenue. In addition, because Venezuela heavily subsidizes its domestic fuel, their gas prices are the cheapest in the world at $0.06 per gallon of premium gasoline, which led to a 39percent increase in domestic oil consumption over the last decade and further reduced supplies available for export (Bloomberg, February, 13). [7]

Equally problematic is the Chavismo policy toward international oil contracts andInternational Oil Companies (IOCs). Chávez used oil as a tool of foreign policy, creating organizations like PetroCaribe and theBolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), which allow strategic allies of Venezuela to purchase Venezuelan oil under generous terms, such aspaying 5 percent to 50 percent of the bill within three months and 25 years to pay off the rest, at one percent interest (Council on Hemispheric Affairs,July 22, 2008). These generous subsidies end up costing the Venezuelan government over $4 billion a year in lost revenue.In 2007 Chávez went even further with his socialist policies when he made the decision to force foreign oil companies to give PDVSA a 60 percent sharein all production projects (Energy Information Agency, October 3, 2012). This caused a flight of foreign investment capital and a technical brain drainas foreign companies were forced to either accept this new Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) or surrender their assets and flee. Unable to acceptthese terms, many multinational oil companies such as ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil were forced to exit the Venezuelan oil market, losing billions inrevenue and assets, which Chávez then nationalized (El Universal [Venezuela], September 21, 2012).Immediate changes to these energy policies seem unlikely, particularly given the assurances from the President of PDVSA Rafael Ramírez, who toldreporters outside the National Assembly on March 8 that ―while our government is here and the people remain in charge, our oi l policy will remain

unchanged (InfoLatam, March 12). However, if Maduro is to succeed as president and revive the Venezuelan economy he will have to address these failed energy policies on three fronts.

First, Maduro will need to find a way to bring back IOCs to Venezuela to boost

production output and bring back technical expertise and foreign investment, while

ensuring he does not lose political credibility with Chavistas. In the long run Venezuela will need to renegotiate the PSAs with IOCs and relax their strictcurrency controls allowing companies to repatriate profits.Second, Maduro will need to decide if Venezuela will reduce the volume of subsidized petroleum products it exports to Petrocaribe and ALBA, whichcost the government billions in lost revenue. However, if these subsidies are suspended or drastically reduced, it would cause gas price shocks for Venezuelan allies like Cuba and Nicaragua and likely cause political instability. It is therefore unlikely that Maduro wi ll go this route.Finally, Maduro must decide if he can cut the domestic petroleum subsidies that allow Venezuelans to enjoy such cheap gas. This popular domesticsocial program has further eaten away at oil export profits. However, the last cut to domestic fuel subsidies in 1989 caused the El Caracazo riots in thestreets of Caracas killing hundreds of people. [8]Economic Problems in a Post Chávez World

Beyond oil, Maduro will have to manage the shortages of everyday goods that haveplagued Venezuela for decades. It seems likely that some time post-election, Venezuela will see another currency devaluation

in order to boost oil exports and gain hard currency to offset any increased cost of imports. The government is concernedabout political instability from shortages and has been handing out hard currencyrecently in order to boost imports. This policy is unsustainable in the long term

but the continued depletion of Venezuela's hard currency leaves little room forshort term economic policy. Fiscal stimulus packages are inflationary, as is thecontinued devaluation of the currency, thus the only long term solution forMaduro will be to increase oil exports to gain enough dollar reserves and hardcurrency to stabilize Venezuela‘s economic imbalances.

http://www.jamestown.org/single-hot-issues/?tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d=40669&tx_ttnews%5bbackPid%5d=61&cHash=284ee84f6ffe1c0745b3f186a09e1dff







Russia Adv --- Expansionist / AT: Relations

U.S. relations are not changing Russian behavior --- it is seekingglobal dominationZigfield 13 [Kim, New- York based, writer, American Thinker, ―Putin‘s Russia: Still and Empire, Still Evil. ,http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/putins_russia_still_an_empire_still_evil.html]

Last week was the thirtieth anniversary of Ronald Reagan's "Evil Empire" speech before the National Association of Evangelicals in Orlando Florida (onMarch 8, 1983). Today, Russia is just as evil, and has been governed for an extended period as the USSR never was by a proud KGB spy. But if you lookto the current occupant of the White House for leadership in this continuing battle with evil, you look in vain. ¶ In his famous speech, Reagan boldlydeclared of the Russians: ¶ They preach the supremacy of the state, declare its omnipotence over individual man and predict its eventual domination ofall peoples on the Earth. They are the focus of evil in the modern world. So, in your discussions of the nuclear freeze proposals, I urge you to beware thetemptation of pride, the temptation of blithely declaring yourselves above it all and label both sides equally at fault, to ignore the facts of history and theaggressive impulses of an evil empire, to simply call the arms race a giant misunderstanding and thereby remove yourself from the struggle betweenright and wrong and good and evil. ¶ Even if Barack Obama doesn't, the people of Russia and the members of the U.S. Congress know how little haschanged since then. Congress has overwhelmingly passed the Magnitsky Act, which forbids from America's shores and resources the members ofPutin's regime who arrested and murdered attorney Sergei Magnitsky in response to his fearless investigations of Putin's corruption. ¶ Yury Melnichukis a neo-Soviet defector. Voice of America has reported that the activist of the RPR Parnas Party demonstrated in support of the Magnitsky law byappearing outside the U.S. consulate-general in St. Petersburg and holding up a sign pleading: "Mr. Reagan, Come Back! The Evil Empire has beenreborn!!!" Translator Paul Goble continues: ¶ He told VOA that he didn't know much about Reagan's domestic policies, but "his foreign policy was in[his] view absolutely adequate to the situation. With a monster such as the USSR was, it was possible to speak only from a position of force."

Unfortunately , he added, "Russia continues a policy of the Soviet model," but "thereaction of certain civilized countries of the West to what is happening with us inRussia does not entirely correspond to the real situation. This reaction is too softand uncertain. Just as the Soviet Union was an 'evil empire,' so [today] Russianrepresents a threat to democracy and civilization in the entire world." ¶ The evidence of theevil that is modern Russia is all around you, everywhere you look. ¶ On the very day of the anniversary, Russia was carrying water for genocidal Syrianmadman Bashar Assad, telling the world that he was "not bluffing" about remaining in power and refusing to add its voice to the world chorus

demanding that he step down. Before that, Russia sided aggressively with homicidal autocrats inEgypt and Libya. Before that, Russian troops rolled into Georgia, Russian cyber-attacks besieged Estonia, and Russian energy blackmail benighted Ukraine .¶

Russia's intentional homicide rate is more than double that of the United Statesand nearly ten times that of the United Kingdom or Canada. It's on a par withplaces like Costa Rica and Liberia. But even hardened Russia cynics were surprised to see a homicidal frenzy break outamong the ballerinas of Russia's leading cultural institution, the Bolshoi. ¶ British long jumper Jade Johnson has denounced the decision to allowRussia to host the World Track & Field Championships, finding it outrageous that a country with such a shameful history of cheating should beaccorded this honor. ¶ When a young boy named Max Shatto who had been adopted from Russia died in Texas of natural causes, a hoard of America -haters in the Putin regime, frothing at the mouth, leaped gleefully forward before any evidence was in with defamatory charges of murder.

Loathing for the United States, you see, is very much alive and well in Putin'sRussia despite four years of Obama's "reset." ¶ Then there was the stunning interview given by Russia's Central

Bank chairman Sergey Ignatyev to Vedemosti , Russia's version of the Wall Street Journal , which was published on February 20 ( Russian-languagelink), adorned with a massive photo of a blood-sucking spider at the center of its gigantic and ominous web. ¶ In the one-picture-is-worth-a-thousand-screams department, a bar graph accompanying the piece is even more terrifying than that spider. It visualizes Ignatyev's data showing that dubiousfinancial transmissions abroad have nearly doubled in Putin's Russia since 2006, now approaching a stunning $40 billion per year, and have increasedsubstantially four years in a row. ¶ Ignatyev reports that total capital outflows from Russia were nearly $60 billion last year, and that illegaltransm issions amounted to almost $50 billion. And then he threw this in: «Создается впечатление, что все они контролируются одной хорошоорганизованной группой лиц.» Translated: "It appears that the main body of the transfers was controlled by a single well -organized group of people."Russia is simply gushing cash from its veins, and a single enormous vampire is gorging at the bloody trough. ¶ As Stefan Wagstyl of the Financial Times notes, nobody in Russia could fail to take Ignatyev's hint: there is simply no way that a single group of actors could make off with such enormous sums without the knowledge, and indeed without the complicity, of very high-ranking figures in the Russia Kremlin, if not the highest. ¶ Charles Clover of theFT goes farther: he points out that the issues Ignatyev is raising are the same issues Sergei Magnitsky was working on before he was illegally arrested bythe Kremlin, tortured, and killed in prison. Clover quotes Igor Yurgens, a former adviser to Dmitry Medvedev, stating that if what Mr. Ignatyev saidabout a "single organized group" is true, "such an operation would not be possible without serious support from law enforcement." ¶ Ignatyev didn'tstop there. He went out of his way to draw attention to the fact that the budgetary cost to the Kremlin from fraudulent financial transfers is roughly thesame as what it spends each year on education or health care -- roughly 2.5% of GDP. Reading between the lines, he's as much as accusing VladimirPutin of making Russians sick and dumb so he can line his pockets. He found the courage to do so only upon announcing his retirement after many

years in office. ¶ If this is not a description of an evil empire, what is it? Putin's regime is currently engaged in amassive military buildup , including the development of a whole new range ofnuclear forces. It is in the midst of an open war against American values, arrestingpolitical opponents and journalists, crushing the internet and spewing forthnothing but neo-Soviet propaganda on state-controlled TV .¶ And from Obama Putin faces noopposition. In fact, it often seems that if Obama believes there is an evil empire in this world, he sees it as ruled by the Republican Party.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/putins_russia_still_an_empire_still_evil.html

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2013/03/window-on-eurasia-30-years-on-reagans.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/abduction-of-peacekeepers-illustrates-un-vulnerability-in-syria-adds-to-israeli-concerns/2013/03/07/3219d7a2-8797-11e2-a80b-3edc779b676f_story.html

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-wont-tell-assad-sees-flexibility-among-foes-112806941.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/dancer-confesses-in-bolshoi-acid-attack/476624.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/21722673

http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/9292521/ottok_pod_kontrolem?full#cut

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/02/20/central-bank-nearly-50bn-taken-out-of-russia-illegally-in-2012/#axzz2LRdsAbpQ

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf4fc11e-7b7e-11e2-95b9-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz2LWnnXBWW

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf4fc11e-7b7e-11e2-95b9-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz2LWnnXBWW

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/02/20/central-bank-nearly-50bn-taken-out-of-russia-illegally-in-2012/#axzz2LRdsAbpQ

http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/9292521/ottok_pod_kontrolem?full#cut

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/21722673

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/dancer-confesses-in-bolshoi-acid-attack/476624.html

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-wont-tell-assad-sees-flexibility-among-foes-112806941.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/abduction-of-peacekeepers-illustrates-un-vulnerability-in-syria-adds-to-israeli-concerns/2013/03/07/3219d7a2-8797-11e2-a80b-3edc779b676f_story.html

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2013/03/window-on-eurasia-30-years-on-reagans.html

http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/putins_russia_still_an_empire_still_evil.html



Offcase



2AC AT: Ambassador CP

Expanding oil ties is key to rebuild relations --- this is a provenmedium that can endure even diplomatic spats. That‘s Metzker.

The counterplan doesn‘t solve—Failure to recognize Maduro doesn‘taffect relationsBusiness Recorder 13 (6/18/2013, ―US, Venezuela take steps towards mending ties, http://www.brecorder.com/general-news/172/1197252/, JMP)

***Note --- Elias Jaua is Venezuela's foreign ministerJaua also downplayed Obama's failure to recognise Maduro's victory. It is "not anissue that matters," he said. During his lengthy presidency Chavez regularly criticised US "imperialism" and courted US foes like Iran

and Syria. Jaua however said it was the late leader who told Venezuelan officials "that we had to worktowards normalising these relations" with Washington . On Wednesday Jaua met with US Secretary ofState John Kerry in Antigua in a first step to mend ties.

Prefer this evidence because it‘s from 2 weeks ago so it‘s updated, andit quotes Venezuela‘s foreign minister —that‘s the most qualified—their evidence also isn‘t reverse causal

We‘re already exchanging ambassadors Auken 6/7 —World Socialist Web Site (Bill Van, ―Venezuela‘s Maduro reaches out to big business and Washington, World Socialist Web Site , 6/7/13 , https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html)

After three months in office, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the handpicked successorof the late Hugo Chavez, has put aside left rhetoric to seek accommodation with

Venezuela‘s biggest capitalists as well as with the Obama administration in Washington. ¶ Maduro has repeatedly charged in recent months that US imperialism was conspiring to bring down his government and wasthe guiding hand behind a wave of political violence that followed his narrow election victory against right-wing candidate Henrique Capriles in April.

Yet Venezuela‘s Foreign Minister Elias Jaua was all smiles Wednesday, following a40-minute meeting in Guatemala with US Secretary of State John Kerry. ¶ The two,

who met privately on the sidelines of the Organization of American States General Assembly meeting in Antigua, Guatemala, declared their commitment to, inKerry‘s words, ―establish a more constructive and positive relationship. This is toinclude resuming the exchange of ambassadors, which has been suspended sincelate 2010. It was Venezuela that requested the meeting. ¶ ― We agreed today there

will be an ongoing, continuing dialogue between the State Department and theForeign Ministry, and we will try to set out an agenda by which we agree on things

we can work together, said Kerry.

They don‘t access the relations advantage— our 1AC Hurst 8 evidence

says that we must rebuild oil relations specifically — AND the internallink is a China crowd- out which they don‘t access

Perm do both —do the plan and recognize the Maduro governmentand offer to exchange ambassadors

http://www.brecorder.com/general-news/172/1197252/









AT: Neoliberalism

Neoliberalism is inevitable and an alt doesn ‘t exist —our systemis rooted in neoliberalism.Cerny, 10 (Philip G. Cerny, Rethinking World Politics: A Theory of Transnational Neopluralism Oxford University Press, New York,International Relations, World Politics--21st Century, Transnationalism, http://www.questiaschool.com/read/121453578/rethinking-world-politics-a-theory-of-transnational)

At the same time, alternatives to neoliberalism have also been ineffectual and oftenincoherent. Prime Minister Thatcher famously said that ―there is no alternative(TINA) and that ―you can‘t buck the markets. In the light of such increasingly influential and politically successful

perspectives, the key debates — both political and academic —about neoliberalism have revolved around whether globalization in its neoliberalmanifestation is inevitable and whether there is a long-term process of convergence taking place across the world, one that cuts

across the levels of analysis distinction and affects domestic and international politics alike. Within this process of convergence, embeddedneoliberalism has been identified as the main ideational concept not only forexplaining the dynamics of change but also for framing and designing publicpolicy. Such an approach is proactively built around a range of marketpromotingand market-enhancing policy measures —measures that are themselves rooted inthe integration of domestic and international politics and the systematicrestructuring of domestic politics around the successful insertion of the domesticinto the new world politic s. These explanations and policy prescriptions clusteraround several distinct dimensions of neoliberalism



Neg Updates



Say No

Hard- liners won‘t accept the planMeacham 6/21 , Carl Meacham is the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in

Washington, D.C.. (―The Kerry -Jaua Meeting: Resetting U.S.- Venezuela Relations? , http://csis.org/publication/kerry -jaua-meeting-resetting-us- venezuela-relations, 6/21/2013) Kerwin

Conclusion: In short, relations between the United States and Venezuela have a rocky trackrecord that recent headlines cannot obscure. And while there are undoubtedlymembers of the Venezuelan government who want to improve relations, it‘sdifficult to see their argument winning over the more hardline Chavistas in thegovernment, who would likely see any steps to building ties as betraying the cause.

Venezuela has time and again proven to be unwilling to work with the UnitedStates, making it difficult for the United States to gauge any real intentions ofchange. In order to move ahead and legitimize this new relationship, the United States must make a decision regarding Maduro‘s legiti macy:does the United States recognize Maduro‘s election sans a proper audit?

Maduro says no to the United StatesNeuman and Archibold 6/5 (6/5/13, WILLIAM NEUMAN and RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD, NY Times, Kerry Meets WithOfficial of Venezuela to Set Talks , http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/americas/venezuela-frees-tim-tracy-jailed-us-filmmaker-and-expels-him.html?_r=0)

<Mr. Maduro, who is struggling with economic problems and faces great pressuresfrom within Mr. Cháv ez‘s movement and from a re -energized opposition, hasrepeatedly used the U nited S tates as a political punching bag and accused it of ties topurported plots to undermine or overthrow his government.Last month , Mr. Maduro called Mr. Obama ―the big boss of the devils and said Mr. Obamaplanned to provoke violence in Venezuela to have an excuse to intervene.On the day Mr. Chávez died, Mr. Maduro expelled two military attaches at the American Embassy, saying they were trying to destabilize the country.He h as speculated that the United States may have found a way to cause Mr. Chávez‘s cancer.>

Maduro says no – Upsets the Chavistas and look weakShifter 7/3 , Michael Shifter is President of the Inter-American Dialogue. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies atGeorgetown University's School of Foreign Service. (―A ‗Bolivarian dream‘ deferred , http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists /a-bolivarian-dream-deferred-1.1205058, 7/3/2013) Kerwin

It makes sense for Venezuela to reach out to the US, but at least in the short term,Maduro will have a tough time holding back on his strident, anti-Americanrhetoric. For political survival, he needs to prove his Chavista bona fides to the

base that brought him to the presidency. Whatever happensabroad, Maduro will be increasingly consumed by Venezuela‘s staggering problems at home.Madurobutis hardly in a position to lead the kind of broad ideological movement that Chavez

was able to cobble together in his glory days. his own country‘s stunning decayraises questions about how much longer his poor imitation of Chavez can carryhim.

Snowden soured relations long-term – Venezuela says noGrand 7/6 , Gabriel Grand is a foreign affairs analyst and a writer for PolicyMic, (―Edward Snowden Asylum: Venezuelan President NicolásMaduro is Trolling the U.S. , http://www.policymic.com/articles/53099/edward -snowden-asylum-venezuelan-president-nicolas-maduro-is-trolling-the-u-s, 7/6/2013) Kerwin

On Friday, Venezuela's recently elected President Nicolás Maduro offered asylumto Edward Snowden, making Venezuela the first country to open its arms to the

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/americas/venezuela-frees-tim-tracy-jailed-us-filmmaker-and-expels-him.html?_r=0






rogue intelligence contractor . Before a military parade marking Venezuela's independence day, July 5, Maduro announced, "Ihave decided to offer humanitarian asylum to Edward Snowden so that he can come and live in the homeland of Bolivar and Chavez, away from thepersecution of North American imperialism." "He is a young man who has told the truth, in the spirit of rebellion, about the United States spying on the

whole world." While Maduro's asylum offer may have answered several pressing questions about Snowden's immediate future, it leaves usto wonder about the motivation behind Maduro's decision. Why, after watching dozens ofcountries reject Snowden's asylum applications, did Maduro decide to take the whistleblower in? What political implications does this move have for

the Maduro presidency, both in Venezuela and in its diplomatic relations with the United States? And why now? It's important to

keep in mind that Maduro is far from secure in his office as Venezuelan president.In the wake of the death of Hugo Chávez in March, Maduro rode a wave of pro-Chávez support into office and has been striving to fill his mentor's shoes eversince. Having pledged to continue the policies of Chávismo, Maduro has yet todistinguish himself from his predecessor before the Venezuelan people or theinternational public. Granting asylum to Edward Snowden on the anniversary of

Venezuela's independence from Spain is a politically genius move that wasdesigned to stick the middle finger to Washington and gain Maduro recognition

before the greater Latin American community . Need proof? Just take a look at the rhetoric that Maduroemployed in his speech. "I'd like to announce something in the name of the dignity of Latin America," he began. He went on to explain that he hadconferred with other Latin American presidents the previous day, and that "Several Latin American governments have expressed their willingness to

assume the stance that I am about to announce." Nicolás Maduro's decision to extend asylum to EdwardSnowden has, in fact, very little to do with Edward Snowden himself. It is asymbolic move calculated to invoke Latin American unity and solidarity in the faceof what many Latin Americans perceive as the impending threat of imperialism.

Anti-U.S. sentiment in Latin America is starting to boil, and Maduro's timingcouldn't be better. His announcement comes just days after the United States

bullied France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal into obstructing the jet of BolivianPresident Evo Morales on the suspicion that Snowden was on board. "Message tothe Americans: The empire and its servants will never be able to intimidate orscare us," an angry Morales told suppo rters at El Alto International Airport outside La Paz on Wednesday.

"European countries need to liberate themselves from the imperialism of the Americans." Meanwhile, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchnerdemanded an apology from the U.S. and the European countries involved in theincident. "At least here in South America, when we make a mistake, we recognize it

and at least ask for forgiveness from those we have offended... Let them apologizefor once in their lives for what they have done," she said. In the midst of the diplomatic crisis following

the incident, Maduro himself blamed an invasive and overzealous CIA for pressuringgovernments to refuse to allow Morales in their airspace. He stated that theMorales affair "shows the level of madness and desperation that the [U.S.] empirehas reached." Whether or not Snowden will end up in Venezuela remains to be seen. Even if he decides to accept Maduro's offer, he willhave to figure out a way to get there from Moscow's Sheremedevo International Airport, where he has been stuck without a valid passport for nearly

two weeks. Regardless, Nicolás Maduro's decision to extend asylum to Snowden provides us with the first clear signal of what Venezuelan foreign policy will look like duringthe Maduro presidency. It demonstrates a lack of faith in Washington's ability tocooperate equally with Latin America that stems from a history of political andeconomic exploitation . Obama administration bureaucrats and foreign policy advisers will inevitably get together on Capitol Hill inthe coming weeks to discuss how to handle the Snowden situation. But unless they also re-examine America's paternalistic attitude towards our long-abused American neighbors to the south, they'll be missing the point entirely

Maduro says no – BravadoScicchitano 7/6 , Paul Scicchitano is a staff writer, (―Ambassador Reich: Maduro Shows 'False Manhood,' Wants to be Chavez ,http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/reich-maduro-venezuela-snowden/2013/07/06/id/513588, 7/6/2013) Kerwin

Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Otto Reich tells Newsmax that Venezuela‘soffer of asylum for NSA leaker Edward Snowden is an attempt by President NicolasMaduro to flex his ―false manhood and be more like his predecessor — the late dictator Hugo



Chav ez. ― Venezuela has nothing to gain. Maduro has a lot to gain, Reich said in an exclusive interview

on Friday. ―Maduro gains that macho bravado that he has lacked so far. He‘s really beena laughing stock in Venezuela because of things like his statement that Chavezcame to him as a little bird and spoke to him. People have been making fun of thatfor months. He‘s just not taken seriously. What better show of false manhood thanto stand up to the great American empire — stand up to the Americans. This is

wh at he‘s doing.



Politics Links

Congressional opposition to engagement --- hardliners want anembargo on VenezuelaLAHT, 11 (2/14/2011, Latin American Herald Tribune, news source for the English- reading public about Latin America, ―RepublicanLawmaker C onnie Mack Proposes U.S. Embargo on Venezuela, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=386874&CategoryId=10718)

WASHINGTON – Republican Congressman Connie Mack of Florida , who has been verycritical of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez , on the weekend once again called for

Washington to place Venezuela on the list of countries that sponsor terrorism andto impose a ―full -scale economic embargo on Caracas . At the Conservative Political Action Conference, or

CPAC, the largest yearly gathering of conservative activists which serves as a place for presidential hopefuls to measure their early support, Mack

on Saturday devoted almost his entire speech to Chavez, whom he called a ―thugocrat who resorts to using weapons such as oppression, aggression, terrorism and drugsto ―destroy Latin American freedom and democracy. Mack said that, with theseinstruments, Chavez was becoming the Osama bin Laden and the Mahmoud

Ahmadinejad of the Americas, referring to the head of Al Qaeda and the Iranian president, respectively. He said that Chavez

had ―declared the U.S. to be his enemy and he railed at the Barack Obamaadministration for subsequently treating the Venezuelan leader cordially at UnitedNations meetings . Mack said that one of his tasks as head of the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee in the House of Representatives isto ―spend time on a clear and present danger rising on the horizon, a danger that this administration has not previously understood: I‘m talking aboutHugo Chavez. He said that Chavez had developed and pursued a four -step strategy to acquire unlimited power in Venezuela: attempt a coup and go toprison, when you are released steal the presidential election, create a crisis amid which you demand more powers and then declare yourself president-

for-life. Mack proposed to the Obama administration a list of measures to follow torespond to Chavez‘s policies and maneuverings, including placing a ―full -scaleeconomic embargo on Venezuela, placing Caracas on the list of sponsors ofterrorism, and increasing U.S. oil imports from Canada so that this country woulddepend less on Saudi and Venezuelan oil. He said that, without U.S. demand,

Venezuela would not be able to sell much of its oil abroad because of its high sulfurcontent.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=386874&CategoryId=10718





Russia CP --- Solvency

Russia can engage in joint venture energy projects with Venezuela APA 13 [July 2, 2013, ―Venezuela, Russia Have Huge Investment Potential – Putin , http://en.apa.az/]

Venezuela and Russia have huge potential for joint investment projects , Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, the same day that Rosneft and Gazpr ombank signed major deals with Venezuela‘s national oil company, Petroleos de

Venezuela , APA reports quoting RIA Novosti. ¶ ―Energy is an important area for joint investmentprojects, Putin said after meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro .¶ ―Russia‘s National OilConsortium in September 2012 launched the first oil well at the Junin-6 deposit [in Venezuela]. [Electricity trader] Inter RAO UES supplies gasturbines to Venezuela for nuclear power plants under construction there, Putin said.¶ Venezuela is Russia‘s key partner in L atin America, the Russian

leader said, adding that bilateral trade exceeded $2 billion in 2012 and tripled in Januarythrough April this year. Russian investment in the Venezuelan economy hasreached $21 billion, he said.¶ Putin also said the two nations had great potential for industrial partnerships.¶ ― Russia and

Venezuela are implementing joint projects in the auto industry, machine-building,transportation and infrastructure, he said, adding that Russian truck maker KamAZ planned to set up a joint venture with Venezuela to produce trucks and buses.¶

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.rian.ru/business/20130702/182014244/Rosneft-and-Venezuelas-PDVSA-Sign-Shelf-Exploration-Deal.html

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.apa.az/

http://en.rian.ru/business/20130702/182014244/Rosneft-and-Venezuelas-PDVSA-Sign-Shelf-Exploration-Deal.html

http://en.apa.az/

venezuela aff and neg - updates - berkeley 2013

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