cuba ethanol aff and neg supplement - jdi 2013

8/13/2019 Cuba Ethanol Aff and Neg Supplement - JDI 2013

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AFF / NEG SUPPLEMENT****AFF****

EXPORT SOLVENCY

Exports are allowed so long as they benefit the people, not the governmentUS Treasury Dept. 92 (Cuba Democracy Act, found at http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Documents/cda.pdf) GH(A) Subject to subparagraph (B), an export may be made under subsection (c) only if the President determines that theUnited States Government is able to verify , by onsite inspections and other appropriate means, that the exported item is tobe used for the purposes for which it was intended and only for the use and benefit of the Cuban people .


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DEAD ZONES INTERNAL

CORN ETHANOL REQUIRES MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FERTILIZER INPUTS DESTROYS WATER QUALITY AND RESULTS IN MARINE DEAD ZONESJonathan Volinski (J.D. candidate 2013, Tulane Univ. Law School; B.A. 2008, PoliSci & History, Syracuse Univ.) 2012 [Shucking Away the Husk of a Crop Gone Wrong: Why the Federal Government Needs To Replant Its Approach to Corn-Based Ethanol 25Tul. Envtl. L.J. 507, lexis, loghry]

The process of raising corn has serious effects upon the land on which it is grown. Most significantly, American corn production"requires more pesticides (which are made from oil) and nitrogen fertilizer (made from natural gas) than any other crop ."n79 In addition to the obvious GHG emissions implications of this process, the increased pesticide and ferti lizer use exacerbatesrunoff problems in water supplies across the United States. The effects of the runoff are felt near and far as it makes itsway through Midwestern streams to the Mississippi River and eventually to the Gulf of Mexico . n80 The nitrogen-rich runoffchokes the Gulf through the process of eutrophication, causing algae blooms and eventually depriving thewater of oxygen . n81 This has led to the unfortunate phenomenon in the Gulf known as the "Dead Zone," an 8000 squaremile area (as of 2010) of hypoxic water that is generally not conducive to marine life and has caused massive fish kills. n82 Regrettably,this dead zone is projected to grow, as 2.39 million additional tons of nitrogen fertilizer will be needed to keep upwith various mandates (discussed infra) by 2015. n83 Growing corn is also a very water-intensive process. The exact amount of waterneeded varies by region (due to rainfall and availability of natural sources) and can range from 19 gallons per bushel of corn in Iowa, Illinois,Ohio, or Missouri to 865 gallons in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. n84 Areas like Nebraska, where 72% of the crop isirrigated, place a gigantic strain on already stressed groundwater [*518] aquifers - specifically, the Ogallala Aquifer, "which lies under the GreatPlains and supplies 30% of the nation's groundwater for irrigation, [and] is in danger of running dry." n85 Moreover, processing corn into ethanolalso requires substantial amounts of water. While the process is increasingly more efficient, demanding just 3 gallons of water per gallon ofethanol today, down from 6.8 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol a decade ago, it still represents a dramatic strain on an already overtaxedresource. n86 These problems are exacerbated by the large amount of corn necessary to produce ethanol. It takes approximately 450 pounds ofcorn to supply just one SUV with a full tank of fuel. n87 Corn planting will cover 94 million acres in 2012, up from 91.9 million acres in 2011.n88 As a comparison, Montana, the fourth largest state in the nation, covers roughly 93 million acres. n89 One can imagine the toll the pesticidesand fertilizers necessary to support that much corn take on the nation's land and water resources. The corn industry shows no signs ofslowing down either, indicating that the acreage necessary to support the nation's demand for the crop willcontinue to grow .


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INVESTMENT INTERNALS

LIFTING THE EMBARGO WOULD IMMEDIATELY SPUR FOREIGN INVESTMENTAND BOLSTER SUGAR PRODUCTIONWalfrido Alonso-Pippo, et. Al. (Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pietro Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, Grupo Combustveis

Alternativos, Energy Consultant, & ENEA Trisaia Research Centre) 2008 [Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case Energy Policy 36 (2008) 2163 2181, loghry]

Because of the political differences between the US and Cuban governments, the US government has imposed a commercialblockade on Cuba since 1962 . The blockade prohibits the import of all Cuban products to the US and the export of any product from theUS to Cuba.3 The US has also vetoed Cuban attempts to obtain credit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the WB, forcing Cuba to

pay cash in advance for needed imports. (In one notable exception to the blockade made in a concession to the interests of US farm states, the USsells foodstuffs to Cuba for advance cash payment.) The credits and foreign investment that Cuba is able to obtain through bilateral agreementscustomarily require quick repayment on unfavorable terms. In many of these cases, international lenders require Cuban sugar as collateral for theloans and credits. Overall, the net effect of the restrictions imposed by the US trade embargo has been to starveCuba of hard currency, credit and direct foreign investment, which has in turn greatly impeded the recoveryof the Cuban sugarcane agroindustry, along with other sectors of the Cuban economy .


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INVESTMENT SOLVES

INVESTMENT SOLVES THE ONLY INTERNAL LINK TO SUGARCANE ETHANOLUSAGE: MARKETS

Nicholas Elledge (Council on Hemispheric Affairs Research Fellow) 10/29/ 2009 [CUBAS SUGARCANE ETHANOL POTENTIAL: CUBA, RAUL CAS TRO, AND THE RETURN OF KING SUGAR TO THE ISLAND online @ http://www.coha.org/cubas-sugarcane-ethanol-potential/, loghry]

Cubas sugar industry has suffered from long -term neglect and insufficient investment , and its productive role has been utilized more as a vehicle for short term profit than as an engine for long term economic growth. From 1959 to 1999, only six newsugarcane mills with the capacity to cogenerate electricity were built despite guaranteed financial backing from the Soviet Union for part of thattime. Also at Havanas disposal were several advanced sugarcane research institutions, such as the Institute for Sugar Invest igation (ICINAZ) andthe Cuban Research Institute of Sugarcane Derivates (ICIDCA). Gradual decapitalization, disrepair, and low morale, all a result of a largelyinsufficient investment and a lack of spare parts, brought about the infrastructural deterioration that led Castro to close the majority of thenations mills in 2002. It must be noted that Cubas ethanol and sugar pr oduction capacity will increase exponentially ifdirect foreign investment, which has been seen only sparingly up to now, is encouraged to enter by direct governmentpolicy. Starved by a recurrent shortage of hard currency, new capital inputs needed to modernize Cubansugar mills would have to come from abroad . To rectify this current shortage, Walfrido Alonso-Pippo, who has been a member ofthe University of Havana, suggests an investment strategy similar to that used to fuel a Cuban natural gas power plant. He maintains that thisjoint venture agreement for a recently constructed natural gas power plant could serve as a model for modernization of [Cubas] sugar bioenergyinfrastructure. Under this existing arrangement, the foreign partner owns a third of the plants output, participates in its management, and receives

a proportion of the plants profits. Dr. Alonso -Pippo goes on to note that legal, institutional and political barriers to investment in Cuba havetended to remain a major obstacle, though re cent heavy foreign investments in Brazils sugar ethanol production facilities suggest the feasibilityof similar investments in Cuba. Another scenario under which Cuba could accelerate investment was offered by Stanford economist Paul Romerwho has suggested starting a free trade zone in Guantanamo Bay in the southeastern part of Cuba, where the U.S. currently administers an arearoughly twice the size of Manhattan. Comparable to the Chinese model of Communist rule and the design of free trade zones in the communisteast, such a zone in Cubas eastern region, where the majority of the islands sugarcane is grown, might be a catalyst for mo dernization, tradeopportunities, investment, and integration. Under either Dr. Alonso- Pippo or Dr. Romers plans, Cuba would be a strong contender to receive theforeign investment necessary for a thriving economy without the political ramifications of foreign ownership and ideological clashes. Whenasked about sugarcane ethanol, an official posted to the Cuban Interests Section in Washington D.C., who preferred to remain anonymous,observed, I dont believe it would be good for us. Brazil has much more land. If anything, we would produce for our internal market and maybewith old partners like China. However, in order for ethanol to be traded as a global commodity in the internationalmarket, a variety of producers and products must be developed globally. Brazil, rather than discouragingcompetition, has been looking for regional partners to create a Latin American market for sugarcane ethanol,offering technology sharing and market partnerships to several other countries in the region. Instead ofavoiding competition, other Latin American nations could look without apprehension to Brazil as a likely

benign partner rather than as a hegemonic regional competitor .


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CUBA ECON ACE

WE DONT HAVE TO WIN CUBA PRODUCES A SINGLE GALLON OF ETHANOLTO WIN OUR CUBAN ECONOMY ADVANTAGE SUGAR EXPORTS OFFSETPRICE FLUCTUATIONS IN ETHANOL

Ronald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010 [Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p. 101, loghry]

Sugar prices rose very quickly in 2009 to levels that are high by historical standards, approaching 25 cents a pound. 46 At these prices, producingand exporting sugar is more attractive than ethanol. But these prices are the temporary consequence of bad weather in other sugar-producing areasand will not be sustained. Both sugar and ethanol are commodities that will trade on the basis of price, and sinceentry into those industries is relatively unconstrained, competition will push prices down toward costs. Whensanctions are lifted. Cuba will be able to benefit from the fact that it is an island economy with easy access tocheap marine transport and the close proximity to the United States. Sugar imports in the United States are limited byquotas, so import volumes cannot change regardless of price. However, ethanol is protected by tariffs so imports can increase if domestic (U.S.) prices get too far ahead of world prices. The fact that sugar exports are an alternative to ethanolis an additional argument for the development of an ethanol industry. To the extent that sugar and ethanolprices are not closely correlated, Cuba can alter its output mix between the two products to take advantage ofvariations in sugar and ethanol prices and thus smooth out fluctuations in export revenues as well as

maximize the income from its sugarcane industry .


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CUBA ECON INTERNALS

PLAN MASSIVELY INCREASES ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CUBARonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010 [Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p. 105-6, loghry]

Our intention in this chapter was to present the case that Cubas energy potential is sufficient for Cuba to shift from its s tatus as a net importer ofroughly 100,000 barrels of oil a day to one of a net energy exporter. We have derived what we feel are conservative estimates of future energydemand and suggest that Cubas oil production potential alone could probably satisfy future energy demand growth, provided th at Cuba begins todo something about its abnormally high energy transformation losses. In addition, we suggest that Cuba could produce upwards of 150 billioncubic feet per day of natural gas, equivalent to 77,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Finally, ethanol production of 2 billiongallons per year could replace 94,500 barrels per day of gasoline as well as 3,000 gigawatt-hours ofelectricity 18 percent of current Cuban production through cogeneration . It is not possible to generate estimates ofCuban demand for specific fuels, since Cuba will have a choice of which to use domestically and which to export, depending on the relative

prices of various fuels in international markets. But it is clear that Cuba has the potential of being a significant exporter ofseveral energy resources, shifting the country from a nation where energy poverty has negatively affectedoverall economic performance to a country where energy surpluses could support economic growth. Thedevelopment of its energy resources could have a profound impact on Cubas eco nomy . Simply replacing current oilimports would release foreign exchange for other developmental uses. For example, at $60 a barrel, 100,000 barrels per day of imports has amarket value of $2.2 billion a year, roughly equivalent to all the earnings from the tourist industry. 53 Energy exports will add afurther significant boost to the Cuban economy. The experience of Brazil is instructive . In the 1970s Brazil founditself facing financial crises when oil prices spiked as a result of Middle East instability. By contrast, Brazil in 2007 and 2008 by then a netexporter of energy saw less economic hardship arising from the dramatic increase in oil prices than other industrialized countries in thoseyears. Whether the scenarios discussed in this chapter are realistic can be established only when serious oil and natural gas exploration anddevelopment of Cuban assets begins. Cubas nascent potential in ethanol also remains theoretical so far. However, the recent politicaltransition in Cuba and the change in administration in the United States make this an ideal time to reevaluateU.S.-Cuba policy, taking into consideration humanitarian issues as well as energy potential. Having anadditional supplier of energy to the U.S. market from only a few miles off shore can only contribute to theUnited States energy security .


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A2: TOURISM ECON ALT CAUSES

TOURISM DOESNT SPUR JOB GROWTH OR TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONLIKE SUGARCANE DOES

Nicholas Elledge (Council on Hemispheric Affairs Research Fellow) 10/29/ 2009 [CUBASSUGARCANE ETHANOL POTENTIAL: CUBA, RAUL CASTRO, AND THE RETURN OF KING SUGAR TO THE ISLAND online @ http://www.coha.org/cubas-sugarcane-ethanol-potential/, loghry]

Some argue that tourism , which in 2001 surpassed sugar as the leading gross hard currency earner in the Cubaneconomy, is an adequate substitute for the role that sugar once played. However, the tourism industry hasproven altogether inadequate for that role . According to a study in 2006, the cost benefit ratio for tourism, as expressed in USdollars, is $0.78 to the dollar, while the comparative ratio for the sugar sector is nearly one-fifth the cost, with a ratio of $0.20 to the dollar. Inaddition, the formerly thriving sugar sector employed three times as many people as tourism does today . As well,sugarcane over the years has contributed significantly to research and technological development whereastourism has done little in terms of new technology for the countrys economic and social development . A

peaceful coexistence of tourism and sugarcane industries may be the best-case scenario for Cuba; however, claims that tourism unilaterally can bean adequate replacement for the sugarcane industry might be dangerously overblown.


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A2: SUGAR / FOOD TRADE-OFF

NO FOOD TRADE-OFF RELATED TO CUBAN SUGARCANE PRODUCTIONRonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010 [Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.94, loghry]

Castro has rightly pointed out that there can be a direct trade-off between using land for food production andfor ethanol . And in many areas of the world, the shift in land use to crops for ethanol has resulted in rapidly rising costs for food. There arealso trade-offs between increasing acreage devoted to crops for ethanol and other objectives such as issues related to climate, environment, and

biodiversity. In Brazil, for example, increasing acreage under sugarcane cultivation has resulted in shifting other crops to newly cleared areas,often in the rainforest, a process that ultimately could have devastating effects on climate and biodiversity within and beyond Brazil. Cuba ,however, has had a traditional comparative advantage in the production of sugar. Although some of the landused for sugar in the past is being shifted to food crops and reforestation, much of it is not currently beingcultivated at all. Thus, for Cuba a restoration of the sugar economy does not necessarily have to involveenvironmental and food production trade-offs .

PLAN IMMEDIATELY CREATES A SUGARCANE ETHANOL INDUSTRY IN CUBAWITHOUT TRADING OFF WITH FOOD AVAILABILITYRonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010 [Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.99-100, loghry]

The shift in acreage devoted to food crops has not been successful in terms of increasing food output, 43 but reforms to give farmers morediscretion in how they operate might produce better results in the future. But significantly increasing acreage devoted to food crops will not beeasy. Food crops are much more fragile than sugarcane, requiring more labor, weeding, pest control, and oversight than cane, which has beenreferred to as the widows crop because it requires relatively little attention. As noted previously, thousands of farm wor kers have migrated tourban areas and it will be difficult to lure them back. If economic sanctions are removed and Cuba enters the internationalcommercial system, food security will be less important, and Cuban agriculture will be more likely to respondto international prices. Historically, Cuba has had a comparative advantage in producing sugar, not food crops;so opening the economy to freer trade might favor a return to the dominance of sugar and development of anethanol industry . More recently, Cuba has expressed interest in producing and exporting soybeans, and the Brazilian government hasoffered technical assistance and seed in order to grow soybeans on an industrial scale. 44 Soybeans have many uses, including as a feedstockfor the production of biodiesel, but it is not clear at this point whether soybeans represent a more efficient use of Cuban land than sugarcane.


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A2: TARIFF ARGS

NEW FUEL STANDARDS MEAN SUGAR ETHANOL IS COMPETITIVE EVEN WITHTHE TARIFF IN PLACERonald Soligo & Amy Myers Jaffe (prof. emeritus of econ. at Rice University & Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice) 2010 [Cuba's Energy Future : Strategic Approaches to Cooperation Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, ed, p.97-8, loghry]

In 2009 the U.S. consumed 11.1 billion gallons of ethanol, almost all of it produced in the United States. U. S. policy favors domesticethanol production by imposing an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon in addition to a 2.5 percent ad valorem tariff. Tariffshave limited ethanol imports into the United States, but higher prices in Europe have also been a factor. As of 2009, the United States hasbeen suffering from an excess of production capacity, which has depressed prices in the States relative toother importing countries. But as higher U.S. renewable fuel targets kick in and U.S. prices recover fromoverinvestment in capacity, imported sugar-based ethanol will be competitive with higher-cost U.S. corn-based ethanol in coastal regions of the United States, even if U.S. tariffs persist . Given the high costs to transport corn-

based ethanol to coastal regions from the U.S. Midwest by rail or truck. 41 Cubas location gives it a large transport cost advantage over bothdomestic and foreign rivals.


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A2: DEAD ZONES ALT CAUSES

ALT CAUSES DONT MATTER NITROGEN FROM FERTILIZER IS THELARGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO DEAD ZONESGulf Restoration Network (The Gulf Restoration Network is committed to uniting and empowering people to protect and restore

the natural resources of the Gulf Region) 2012 [The Dead Zone online @ https://healthygulf.org/our-work/healthy-waters/the-dead-zone, loghry]

The cause of the Dead Zone is not a mystery. There has been an almost threefold increase in nitrogen entering the Gulffrom the Mississippi River and its tributaries in the last 30 years .4 The actual size of the Dead Zone varies each year due toclimate and ocean dynamics, though nitrogen remains the prime factor in causing the Dead Zone .5 The largest sourceof nitrogen is commercial fertilizer used throughout the Mississippi River basin one of the agriculturalcenters of the United States . Other sources include animal waste, sewage treatment plants, and nitrogen in the atmosphere from fossilfuel combustion.


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OIL ADVANTAGE

3 scenarios climate change & corruption & econ dispair

Sugar cane ethanol is the answer to the worlds addiction of fossil fuels Newsweek 7 [Sugar Rush, Newsweek, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.html , accessed 79/13] He won't be the last. Thanks to global climate change, sugar now is in big demand . The drum-beat ofalarm over global warming has set businesses clamoring for a piece of the sugar-caneaction . There are plenty of other ways to make ethanol, of course, and scientists the world over are busy tinkering with everythingfrom switchgrass to sweet potatoes. U.S. farmers make it from corn , but with the scarcity of arable land there's just somuch they can plant without crowding out other premium crops, like soy beans. (Meantime, the combination of limitedland and surging demand have sent corn prices through the roof ). So far nothing beatssugarcane which grows in the tropics for an abundant, cheap source of energy . Unlike beets orcorn , which are confined to temperate zones and must be transformed into carbohydrates before theycan be converted into sugar and finally alcohol, sugarcane is already halfway there . That

means the sugar barons like Ometto spend much less energy than the competition, not tomention money. The moral imperative of finding a substitute for fossil fuels has lent an airof respectability to new ventures to produce biofuels from sugar a marked contrast to the sugarbarons of old, known for their ruthless ways and their appetite for taxpayers' money. "The distillers who ten years ago were thebandits of agribusiness are becoming national and world heroes," Brazilian president Luiz Incio Lula da Silva. Lula declared

recently. "[E]thanol and biodiesel are more than an answer to our dangerous 'addiction' tofossil fuels. This is the beginning of a reassessment of the global strategy to protect ourenvironment."

US dependence on foreign oil bad for a multitude of reasons--security,economy, environmentLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master ofPublic Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13] A recent report on the November 2009 U.S. trade deficit found that rising oil imports widened our deficit, increasingthe gap between our imports and exports. This is but one example that our economicrecovery and long-term growth is inexorably linked to our reliance on foreign oil . The U nited S tates is spending approximately $1 billion a day overseas on oil instead of investing the funds athome, where our economy sorely needs it. Burning oil that exacerbates global warming alsoposes serious threats to our national security and the worlds security. For these reasons we needto kick the oil addiction by investing in clean-energy reform to reduce oil demand, whiletaking steps to curb global warming . In 2008 the U nited States imported oil from 10 countries currently

on the State Departments Travel Warning List,which lists countries that have long -term,protracted conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable. These nations include Algeria, Chad,

Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria . Our reliance on oil from these countries could have serious implications for our national security, economy, andenvironment .
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.htmlhttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2007/04/15/sugar-rush.html


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Scenario 1 is corruption

US oil dependence in the Middle East is unstable CorruptionCavell 2012 Global Research , April 11, 2012 11 April 2012 AMERICAS DEPENDENCY ON MIDDLE EAST OIL PART II(http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177 ) North America is the largest consumer of oil regionally , followed by Asia (primarily Japan), Europe, and then other worldregions. Importing over 13.5 million barrels of oil per day, the U.S. is easily the worlds largest oil importer, accounting for over 63% of total U.S.daily consumption. Oil from the Middle East (specifically, the Persian Gulf) accounts for 17 percent of U.S . oil imports, an d this dependence isgrowing, wrote Heritage Foundation researcher Ariel Cohen in April of 2006. Though the U.S. is a top producer of crude oil, its current rate ofpetroleum consumption is between 18 and 19 million barrels of oil per day, and its domestic production cannot handle the demand, hence itsreliance on imported oil. As President George W. Bush stated in his 2006 State of the Union Address to the nation: Keeping America

competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem: America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world (January 31, 2006 ). From the mouth of the nations topleader, the U.S. suffers from an addiction . Most modern machinery runs on oil and its utility is seen in everyday products fromplastics to cosmetics, from paint to lubricants, and, most especially, as a source of fuel for the modern combustion engine. Over time, to feelnormal, the addict develops an abnormal psychological dependency on the addictive substance and will utilize any means to o btain the drug

in spite of cultural or moral restraints . In the case of oil, this abnormal dependency has led the United States toengage in bribery and corruption to obtain oil, from control of markets to the exclusion of countriesfrom such commerce, from the overthrow of regimes deemed belligerent because of their attempts totake control of their own oil resources to outright murder, assassination, and war . Indeed, few Americanstoday doubt that the recent eight-year war on Iraq (2003-2011) was conducted primarily to obtain oil. And this is why veteran scholar on thepolitics of oil, Dr. Michael Klare, concludes in a recent article that: the S trait of Hormuz will undoubtedly remain the ground zero of potential

global conflict in the months ahead (January 31, 2012 ). When a U.S. President refers to the necessity to import oilfrom unstable parts of the world, what he means is that some regions of the world are assertingtheir sovereign right to control their natural resources , e.g. oil , and they are neither subordinate noranswerable to the U.S. government, especially as regards how much oil is produced and available forpurchase on world markets and how much they wish to charge for this oil hence, the nomenclatureof instability . The worlds top oil producers are depicted in the table below *Table I+, and it is not coincidental that major ar eas of U.S.foreign intervention over the past 50 years are focused on these countries.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/author/colin-s-cavellhttp://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177http://www.globalresearch.ca/america-s-dependency-on-middle-east-oil/30177http://www.globalresearch.ca/author/colin-s-cavell


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Corruption leads to violenceMISA 11 [Corruption leads to violence new World Bank report , The Zimbabwean, Online,http://www.thezimbabwean.co/comment/39301/corruption-leads-to-violence--new-world-bank-report.html , accessed 7/10/11] Less well evident, however, until recently were the more insidious effects of corruption in spawning violencethat not only threatens the viability and stability of whole nation states but can engulf them. Conflict,Security, and Development , the World Banks just-released 2011 World Development Report sheds new light onthe intractable, age-old problems of weak governance, poverty, and violence. The new report s findings areunequivocal , and make for sober reading: Some 1.5 billion people live in countries affected by political andcriminal violence causing human misery and disrupting development; Over 90 percent of civil wars in the2000s occurred in countries that had already experienced a civil war in the previous 30 years; and Coercion andpatronage may be seen by some governments as ways to preserve stability, but this is a mistake corruption,human rights abuses and low government effectiveness make countries 30-40% more vulnerable to violence .The new reports findings are particularly poignant for Africa, home to 23 out of the worlds most conflict-affectedand fragile economies. And conflict impacts negatively on development . Preliminary estimates suggest that CtedIvoires conflict has cost over1,000 lives of men, women and children, displaced another 1 million, reducedGDP by between 3 to7 percent, pushed up poverty between 2.5 to 4 percentage points, and created additionalfiscal needs of between 4 and 5 percent of GDP . Building strong, legitimate institutions and governance that

provide citizen security, justice, and jobs are all crucial to break cycles of violence. The report points out that it took

the 20 fastest-moving countries an average of 17 years to get the military out of politics, 20 years to achievefunctioning bureaucratic quality, and 27 years to bring corruption under reasonable control. Put another way,tackling corruption and violence is a generational task requiring sustained effort, and is not for the weak or those

prone to wavering. It crucially requires dogged commitment to improving confidence between citizens and the state.For governments, this means accepting, for example, that ruling parties cannot tackle violence successfully alone,

but need to build citizen engagement and coalitions in support of change. And confidence-building involvessignaling a break with the past - through credible early results and measures that convincingly lock-in commitmentsto change. Countries like Ghana and Mozambique have shown that this is possible. That is why Robert B. Zoellick,World Bank Group President, recently noted that good governance will not happen without the active participationof citizens, and why the new strategy for World Bank engagement in Africa has governance, and institution- andcapacity-building at its foundation. That is why the African Unions efforts to define and promote shared political,economic and social values and behavior are critical and deserve support. That is also the reason we must continueto measure and promote progress as done by the Ibrahim Index of African Governance and its four indicators: Safety

and Rule of Law, Participation and Human Rights, Sustainable Economic Opportunity and Human Development. Itis no coincidence that conflict-affected countries in Africa are relegated to the bottom of the Index. Much of theeconomic news from sub-Saharan Africa has been increasingly positive - pre crisis growth of about 5 percent perannum for a decade in many countries; poverty reduction at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world; and aspeedy return to pre-crisis economic expansion because of exemplary domestic policies. Africa is now poised to takeoff much as Brazil and India did some decades ago if only it can make the structural links between citizen security,

justice and jobs in conflict and violence prevention, and include mechanisms to build confidence between citizensand the state. Africa must also strengthen governance while curbing systemic corruption. Citizens, investors and therest of the world are taking note. Need we say more?
http://www.thezimbabwean.co/comment/39301/corruption-leads-to-violence--new-world-bank-report.htmlhttp://www.thezimbabwean.co/comment/39301/corruption-leads-to-violence--new-world-bank-report.htmlhttp://www.thezimbabwean.co/comment/39301/corruption-leads-to-violence--new-world-bank-report.html


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Violence leads to warKurtenbach 11 Sabine (political scientist and Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute ofPeace and Development at the University of Duisburg- Essen) November [State -Building, War and Violence: Evidence from Latin America,GIGA Research Programme: Violence and Security, online at http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp181_kurtenbach.pdf, July 10, 2013, Hostert]

Under the general heading of organized violence, the agents of the states characteristically carry on fourdifferent activities: 1) War making: Eliminating or neutralizing their own rivals outside theterritories in which they have clear and continuous priority as wielders of force.

Iran not afraid to start WWIII result would be a deathblow to US hegemony andeconomyMarcus 13 [Global tension mounts: Iran warns U.S. an attack on nuclear facilities would trigger World War III , The ExtinctionProtocol, Online, http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/global-tension-mounts-iran-warns-u-s-an-attack-on-nuclear-facilities-would-trigger-world-war-iii/ , accessed 7/10/11]

Iran ratcheted up its vitriol against Israel and the United S tates over the weekend, warning that an attackon the Islamic regimes nuclear facilities could lead to glo bal war . The rhetoric eerily matched thatcurrently coming out of North Korea against its perceived enemies. Iran will not stand by in the face of suchaggression , Ali Ahani, Irans ambassador to France, said Sunday, according to the Islamic regimes PressTV. This can entail achain of violence that may lead to World war III . A potential Israeli attack against Iran with an objective ofdestroying its scientific and nuclear facilities is sheer madness. Its consequences are disastrous and uncontrollable. The deputy chief of staff of Irans armed forces , Brig. Gen Masoud Jazayeri, warned the U nited S tates on Saturday that Iran wouldcontinue its nuclear program . We would not trade off our rights, he said, adding that Iran would stand with North Korea in i tsfaceoff with America. According to Mehr News, Jazayeri blamed the tension on the Korean Peninsula on the U.S. presence in the region.Whenever necessary, we would stop the U.S. excessive demands, he said. The Islamic Revolution will never leave its p ast and present friends.

The U.S. and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region . Thecommander of the Islamic regimes ground forces, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza Poordastan, inhis speech at Friday Prayers, also warned the enemies that the countrys army has itsfinger on the trigger and that any attack on the country will make the enemy regret itsactions. All enemy activities at Irans borders and in the region are being monitored by the countrys intelligence analysts, and Irans armedforces are prepared for any scenario, he said. The regimes PressTV ran an op -ed analysis on Saturday with a headline Iran dealsdeathblow to U.S. global hegemony . The analysis, by Finian Cunningham, an Irishman whom the outlet calls a promine ntexpert in international affairs, blames America for much of the worlds problems and warns of its decline. Iran , however, presents agreater and more problematic challenge to U.S. global hegemony, Cunningham wrote. The U.S. in 2013is a very different animal from what it was in 1945. Now it resembles more a lumbering giant. Gone is its former economic prowess and its

arteries are sclerotic with its internal social decay and malaise. Iran exerts a controlling influence over the vitaldrug that keeps the American economic system alive the worlds supply of oil and gas.Any war with Iran, if the U.S. were so foolish to embark on it, would result in a deathblowto the waning American and global economy . Cunningham said the story will not end there: The attainment of world

peace, justice and sustainability does not only necessitate the collapse of American hegemony. We need to overthrow the underlying capitalisteconomic system that gives rise to such destructive hegemonic powers. Iran represents a deathblow to the American empire, but the people of the

world will need to build on the ruins. The world powers once again failed at Almaty, Kazakhstan, to get Iran to stop its ura nium enrichment program and allow further inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The talks, which lasted two days, wereheld last week between Iran and the 5-plus-1 powers: the United States, Britain France, Russia, China, plus Germany. WND
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Scenario 2 is economic disparity

Dependence on foreign oil puts the US in a dangerous position and causeseconomic disparity in oil producing countriesLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master ofPublic Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit , Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/ , accessed 7/9/13] Oil imports fuel dangerous or unstable governments The U nited States imported 4 millionbarrels of oil a day or 1.5 billion barrels total from dangerous or unstable countries in 2008 at a costof about $150 billion. This estimate excludes Venezuela, which is not on the State Departments dangerous or unstable list but has maintained adistinctly anti-American foreign and energy policy. Venezuela is one of the top five oil exporters to the United States, and we imported 435

million barrels of oil from them in 2008. As a major contributor to the global demand for oil the U nited Statesis paying to finance and sustain unfriendly regimes . Our demand drives up oil prices on theglobal market, which oftentimes benefits oil- producing nations that dont sell to us . The Centerfor American Progress finds in Securing Americas Future: Enhancing Our National Security by Reducing oil Dep endence and EnvironmentalDamage, that because of this, anti -Western nations such as Iran with whom the United States by law cannot trade or buy oil benefit

regardless of who the end buyer of the fuel is. Further, the regimes and elites that economically benefit fromrich energy resources rarely share oil revenues with their people, which worsens economicdisparity in the countries and at times creates resource-driven tension and crises . The StateDepartment cites oil-related violence in particular as a danger in Nigeria, where more than 54 national oil workers or businesspeople have beenkidnapped at oil-related facilities and other infrastructure since January 2008. Attacks by insurgents on the U.S. military and civilians continue to

be a danger in Iraq. Our oil dependence will also be increasingly harder and more dangerous tosatisfy . In 2008 the United States consumed 23 percent of the worlds petroleum, 57 percent of which was imported. Yet the United St atesholds less than 2 percent of the worlds oi l reserves. Roughly 40 percent of our imports came from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, but wecant continue relying on these allies. The majority of Canadas oil lies in tar sands, a very dirty fuel, and Mexicos main oil fields are projected

dry up within a decade. Without reducing our dependence on oil well be forced to increasingly lookto more antagonistic and volatile countries that pose direct threats to our national security.
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US dependence in the Middle East tanks national security preventing the US fromplacing sanctions on Iran and destabilizing the economyHannah 2012 (John Hannah is a contributor to Foreign Policy's Shadow Government blog and a senior fellow at the Foundation forDefense of Democracies. )Energy insecurity: How oil dependence undermines America's effort to stop the Iranian bombP osted By John HannahFriday, October 12, 2012 - 1:06 PM (http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012 /10/12/energy _insecurity_how_oil_dependence_undermines_america_s_effort_to_stop_the_irania) Energy issues have figured prominently in Governor Romney's campaign. Achieving "North American energy independence" has been a centralpillar of the 5-point economic plan that he's been touting -- including at last week's first presidential debate. A bit surprising, then, that in thegovernor's October 8th foreign policy speech, with its heavy emphasis on the Middle East, energy didn't even merit a mention. Let's face it.

Ensuring the free flow of oil has been the main driver of American strategy in the Middle East for decades. Our nation's economicwellbeing depends on a well-supplied global oil market, and countries in the Middle East account for asignificant portion of the world's production. The cartel they dominate, OPEC, today controls between 30 and 40 percent ofthe international market while possessing the vast majority of the world's proven reserves. As a result , America and the globaleconomy are incredibly vulnerable to what happens in the region. Every U.S. recession but one sinceWorld War II has been preceded by an oil price shock . And in the majority of cases, those shocks have beentriggered by events originating in the Middle East. Think the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, orSaddam's 1991 invasion of Kuwait. But you don't have to go back that far to appreciate the problem we face. Last year's revolution in Libya,

along with broader unrest across the Arab world, sent oil prices skyrocketing. Ditto Iran's threats in January to blockade the Straits of Hormuz .And concern about an eventual war with Iran continue to impose a significant risk premium on globalprices, a reality Americans confront every day at the gas pump . Even short of tipping the economyback into recession , the effects of this kind of price volatility are highly negative : our trade deficit rises; disposableincome and consumer spending decline; and economic growth takes a significant hit. Concerns aboutoil prices have often badly distorted U.S. policy toward the Middle East. The most acute example isthe effort to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions. U.S. policymakers have long known that themost effective step we could take against the mullahs is to cut off Iran's oil sales and starve them of the enormous revenues they need to keeptheir repressive regime afloat. Yet for years, first President Bush and then President Obama fiercely resisted sanctioning the Islamic Republic'spetroleum sector. The reason? Because they quite legitimately feared that removing Iranian crude from the market would disrupt global

supplies and trigger a devastating price shock. Only in late 2011 , with Iran rapidly approaching the nuclear threshold, didCongress finally steamroll the administration by forcing through legislation that targeted Iranian oil. Even then, implementation of the sanctions was watered down . The administration was given a six-month graceperiod to assess the possible impact that sanctions would have on the global oil market. And rather than demanding thatcustomers of Iranian oil end their purchases entirely, countries were granted waivers from U.S.sanctions if they only "significantly reduced " their buy -- which in practice required them to cut back between 15 and 20percent. While the U.S. effort, together with complimentary EU sanctions, have no doubt had a majoreffect on Iran's economy -- reducing its oil exports by as much as 50 percent -- a full embargo wouldhave been far more impactful and the obvious course of action for Washington to pursue if not for thecountervailing concern about oil markets. In the meantime, the Iranian regime continues to pocket perhaps $3 billion permonth from the million or so barrels of oil that it still exports daily, all the while pressing ahead with its nuclear program. Americadoesn't have a higher national security priority than stopping the world's most dangerous regimefrom going nuclear. And yet the sad reality is that our dependence on oil has for years, and to ourgreat peril, systematically deterred us from fully deploying the most powerful tool in our arsenal -- all-

out sanctions on Iran's petroleum sector -- for resolving the crisis peacefully . Not surprisingly, that underlyinglogic applies in spades when it comes to any discussion about the possible use of force against Iran, where predictions of oil spiking to aneconomy-crippling $200 per barrel are commonplace. The fact that our oil vulnerability has put such severeconstraints on our freedom-of-maneuver to address the most pressing national security threat weface is deeply troubling . The big question is whether we can do anything about it. Admittedly, history doesn't offer much reason foroptimism. For almost 40 years, successive U.S. presidents have promised to tackle the problem with very little to show for it . Of course,what's different today is that the United States is experiencing an oil and gas boom that promises totransform our energy landscape in very fundamental ways. Thanks to American ingenuity andtechnology, U.S. production is poised to increase dramatically over the next decade, after years ofsteep decline. As Governor Romney has correctly emphasized, through close cooperation with democratic allies in Canada and Mexico,
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the goal of energy self-sufficiency for North America may well be within reach -- an unthinkableprospect just a few years ago, and one whose benefits in terms of job creation and economic growthcould be quite profound . In addition to the potential economic windfall, however, we also need to be thinking hard about how wecan best exploit the coming energy boom to really enhance U.S. national security. That's a much more difficult task . The fact is thatbecause there's a global market for oil, Middle East crises are likely to threaten the U.S. economy withmajor price spikes no matter how much of our own crude we produce . Just look at Canada and England. Whileboth are oil independent, they remain exposed to the same price volatility that currently afflicts the United States. Their economies will be no

more insulated than ours if a war with Iran sends the cost of oil through the roof. It seems that what really needs to be partof the mix is a viable, bipartisan, market-driven strategy for reducing the monopoly that oil has overour transportation sector. If a sensible way could be found to begin moving some significant portionof U.S. cars and trucks to run on cheaper, domestically produced alternative fuels -- natural gas, methanol,electric -- it would largely eliminate the sword of Damocles that Middle Eastern tyrannies like Iran nowhold over the West's economic wellbeing and its strategic decision-making . That would put us on thepath toward true energy independence, and restore to the United States a degree of flexibility,leverage, and strength to pursue its interests and values abroad, especially in the Middle East, that wehave not known for at least a generation . All much easier said than done, I know -- especially in an environment where energyissues, like the national budget, have become so politically charged. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal. Perhaps once the upcoming election isover, a new administration will be prepared to look seriously at developing a bipartisan, comprehensive energy strategy that both fully exploitsAmerica's new oil and gas bonanza while taking meaningful steps to reduce our vulnerability to extortion by hostile, repressive dictatorships inunstable parts of the world. If it is, one place that a new president should definitely look to mobilize ideas as well as political support isSecuring America's Future Energy (an organization that I'm proud to advise), which has brought together an extraordinary group of Americanbusiness and military leaders to highlight both the economic as well as national security dangers posed by our dependence on oil, and torecommend possible solutions. Co-chaired by Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx and General P.X. Kelley, former commandant of the Marine Corps, thegroup includes such luminaries as General Jack Keane, former vice chief of the Army; Admiral Dennis Blair, former director of nationalintelligence; David Steiner, CEO of Waste Management; Herb Kelleher, founder of Southwest Airlines; and John Lehman, former undersecretaryof the Navy. A pretty hard-nosed bunch, to be sure, that has decades of experience operating on the front lines of the global economy andnational security, and is convinced that America can and must get after this challenge as soon as possible. For the country's sake, we should allhope that they're right.
http://secureenergy.org/http://secureenergy.org/http://secureenergy.org/


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Economic collapse causes global nuclear warsHarris & Burrows 2009 PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the NationalIntelligence Council (NIC) & member of the NICs Long Range Analysis Unit Mathew, and JenniferRevisiting the Future: Geopolitical E ffects of the Financial

Crisis http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdfOf course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is likely to be the result of a number ofintersecting and interlocking forces. With so many possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample Revisiting theFuture opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a growing sense of insecu rity. Even so, history may be moreinstructive than ever. While we continue to believe that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated,the lessons to be drawn from that period include the harmful effects on fledgling democracies andmultiethnic societies (think Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s) and on the sustainability of multilateralinstitutions (think League of Nations in the same period). There is no reason to think that this would not betrue in the twenty-first as much as in the twentieth century . For that reason, the ways in which the potentialfor greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a constantly volatile economicenvironmen t as they would be if change would be steadier. In surveying those risks, the report stressed the likelihood that terrorismand nonproliferation will remain priorities even as resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorisms appeal

will decline if economic growth continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment isreduced . For those terrorist groups that remain active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the worlds most dangerous capabilities within their reach. Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combinationof descendants of long established groups_inheriting organizational structures, command and control processes, and training proceduresnecessary to conduct sophisticated attacks_and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized, particularly in the absence of economic outlets that would become narrower in aneconomic downturn. The most dangerous casualty of any economically-induced drawdown of U.S.military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East . Although Irans acquisition of nuclear weapons is notinevitable, worries about a nuclear-armed Iran couldlead states in the region to develop new securityarrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and consider pursuing their ownnuclear ambitions . It is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship that existed between the great powers for most ofthe Cold War would emerge naturally in the Middle East with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking

place under a nuclear umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines

between those states involved are not well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined withunderdeveloped surveillance capabilities and mobile dual-capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties inachieving reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack. The lack of strategic depth in neighboring states likeIsrael, short warning and missile flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place more focuson preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises . 36 Types of conflict that the worldcontinues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge , particularly if protectionism grows and thereis a resort to neo-mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive countries to take actionsto assure their future access to energy supplies. In the worst case, this could result in interstate conflicts if governmentleaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be essential for maintaining domestic stabilityand the survival of their regime . Even actions short of war, however, will have important geopolitical implications. Maritimesecurity concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as Chinas and Indias develop ment of

blue water naval capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for t hese countries indeed turns inward, one of themost obvious funding targets may be military. Buildup of regiona l naval capabilities could lead to

increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves, but it also will create opportunities for multinationalcooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East,cooperation to manage changing water resources is likely to be increasingly difficult both withinand between states in a more dog-eat-dog world .
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Nuclear war would leave millions dead the survivors would suffer effectsfrom radiation for the rest of their livesNissani 92 (Ph.D., Genetics, University of Pittsburgh, 1975, B.A., philosophy, psychology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 1972) [Lives in the Balance: the Cold War and American Politics, 1945-1991. Ch. 2: CONSEQUENCES OF NUCLEAR WAR, Online,http://www.is.wayne.edu/MNISSANI/PAGEPUB/CH2.html , accessed 7/10/13]The direct effects of nuclear war can be presented as a series of projections of increasing severity.3,5,6,11,16 I. Ifonly two well-armed countries (e.g., Cold War America and Russia) are involved in the gloomy encounter, and ifeach detonates less than 10 percent of its total nuclear arsenal over the other's largest cities, the mildestimaginable outcome is 35 million dead and 10 million seriously injured in each country, with one-half thetotal industrial capacity of each side destroyed. Within 40 years of the war's end , local and global fallout maycause 1 million thyroid cancers, 300,000 other cancers, 1.5 million thyroid abnormalities, 100,000miscarriages, and, perhaps, 300,000 genetic defects . We have noted earlier the higher incidence of severedisfigurement, vision impairment, increased susceptibility to disease, chronic malaise, and other lifelong emotionaland social problems among Hiroshima survivors. Even in the most optimistic projection of an all-out war, some 150large cities are hit, leaving thousands of times as many immediate survivors and personal tragedies as in Hiroshima.Even the most optimistic war projection must assume the use of surface bursts. Although surface bursts cause lessimmediate urban destruction than air bursts, they can best serve the presumably important strategic objectives ofdestroying well-protected military installations (like land-based missiles in the American Midwest) and ofcontaminating an opponent's homeland. In the event of a Russian/American war, the use of surface bursts would, inturn, result in contamination of an area of some 25,000 square miles (the size of West Virginia) in either country.Much of this contamination will cover lands where cities once stood. The survivors could be faced, therefore, withthe unpleasant choice of living among the ruins of contaminated cities, building new cities, or waiting years,decades, or centuries for the old cities to become safe again. II. A likelier projection still confines the war to twomajor nuclear-weapon states, but assumes more bombs and more targets. This projection entails the death ofabout 100 million people in either country, the virtual destruction of the industrial and military capacity ofboth, long-term radioactive contamination of 50,000 square miles, and, during the first 40 years, 5 millionthyroid cancers, 13 million other cancers, 7 million thyroid abnormalities, 10 million spontaneous abortionsand , possibly, several million genetic defects. In this projection, practically all surviving Russians and Americanswould have suffered like Hiroshima survivors.
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Clean energy would help to spur the US economy

Lefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master ofPublic Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13] The United States has an opportunity right now to reduce its dependence on foreign oil byadopting clean-energy and global warming pollution reduction policies that would spureconomic recovery and long-term sustainable growth. With a struggling economy andrecord unemployment, we need that money invested here to enhance our economiccompetitiveness. Instead of sending money abroad for oil, investing in clean-energytechnology innovation would boost growth and create jobs. Reducing oil imports throughclean-energy reform would reduce money sent overseas for oil, keep more money at homefor investments, and cut global warming pollution. A Center for American Progress analysis shows that theclean-energy provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and ACEScombined would generate approximately $150 billion per year in new clean-energy investmentsover the next decade . This government-induced spending will come primarily from the private sector, and the investments wouldcreate jobs and help reduce oil dependence. And by creating the conditions for a strong economic recovery, such as creating more finance for energy retrofits and energy-saving projects and establishing loans for manufacturing low-carbon products, wecan give the U nited S tates the advantage in the clean-energy race. Investing in a clean-energyeconomy is the clear path toward re-establishing our economic stability and strengtheningour national security.
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Scenario 3 is environmentUS Oil Dependency accelerates climate changeLefton and Weiss 10 (A graduate of the University of Michigan with both a Bachelor of Arts and Master ofPublic Policy degrees, Weiss has been involved with presidential, Senate, and House campaigns) [Rebecca and Daniel, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/, accessed 7/9/13] Climate change is a major threat to U.S. and world security Meanwhile, Americas voracious oilappetite continues to contribute to another growing national security concern: climatechange . Burning oil is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore amajor driver of climate change, which if left unchecked could have very serious securityglobal implications. Burning oil imported from dangerous or unstable countries alonereleased 640.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is the same as keepingmore than 122.5 million passenger vehicles on the road. Recent studies found that the gravest consequences ofclimate change could threaten to destabilize governments, intensify terrorist actions, anddisplace hundreds of millions of people due to increasingly frequent and severe naturaldisasters, higher incidences of diseases such as malaria, rising sea levels, and food andwater shortages . A 2007 analysis by the Center for American Progress concludes that the geopolitical implications ofclimate change could include wide-spanning social, political, and environmentalconsequences such as destabilizing levels of internal migration i n developing countriesand more immigration into the U nited States. and require already strapped resources to be sent abroad. The U.S.military will face increasing pressure to deal with these crises, which will further put ourmilitary at risk . Global warming-induced natural disasters will create emergencies thatdemand military aid , such as Hurricane Katrina at home and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami abroad. The worlds poorwill be put in the most risk, as richer countries are more able to adapt to climate change.Developed countries will be responsible for aid efforts as well as responding to crises fromclimate-induced mass migration Military and intelligence experts alike recognize thatglobal warming poses serious environmental, social, political, and military risks that wemust address in the interest of our own defense . The Pentagon is including climate change as a security threat in its2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated report that updates Pentagon priorities every four years. The State Departmentwill also incorporate climate change as a national security threat in its Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. And in September theCIA created the Center on Climate Change and National Security to provide guidance to policymakers surrounding the national security impact

of global warming. Leading Iraq and Afghanistan military veterans also advocate climate and clean-energy policies because they understand that such reform is essential to make us safer .Jonathan Powers, an Iraq war veteran and chief operating officer for the Truman National Security Project, said We recognize that climatechange is already affecting destabilized states that have fragile governments. Thats why hundreds of veterans in nearly all 50 states are standingup with Operation Free because they know that in those fragile states, against those extremist groups, it is our military that is going to have to

act. The CNA Corporations Military Advisory Board determined in 2007 that Climate change can act as a threatmultiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presentssignificant national security challenges for the U nited States. In an update of its 2007 report last year CNA foundthat climate change, energy dependence, and national security are interlinked challenges. The report, Powering Americas Defense: Energy andthe Risks to National Security, reiterates the finding that fossil fuel dependence is unequivocally compromising our nationa l security. The board

concludes, Overdependence on imported oil by the U.S. and other nations tethers Americato unstable and hostile regimes, subverts foreign policy goals, and requires the U.S. tostretch its military presence across the globe. CNA advises, Given the national securitythreats of Americas current energy posture, a major shift in energy policy and practice isrequired.
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Climate change causes natural disasters affects the worlds poor the most Kloeppel 13 (writer for the Huffington Post) [Amanda, Clima te Change will Hurt the Worlds Poor, The Borgen Project, Online, http://borgenproject.org/climate-change-will-hurt-the-worlds-poor/ , accessed 7/10/13]

Climate change is becoming an increasingly large issue especially when it comes to theworlds poor . The World Bank released a report detailing some of the impacts climate change could have on the developing world andhave committed billions of dollars to combat the effects in countries in Africa and Asia, regions deemed to be hit the hardest. The US is one ofthe largest contributors to the World Bank and it is noteworthy to pay attention to how they are spending their dollars and causes the World Bank

deems important. Even a 2 degree change in global temperature, a level previously thought safe,can cause many disasters. Events such as extreme heat, water scarcity and drought, risingsea levels, and intense hurricanes have already been seen across the global south and it isthe poor countries that stand to suffer the most. The World Bank predicts even the 2 degree changewill impact food security and destroy communities reliant on agricultural and foodproduction. In Asia, rising sea levels can lead to the destruction of sea life and lead to cyclonesthat cause significant damage and loss of life . To continue to fight global hunger and eradicate poverty, developingnations must be supported in the fight against climate change and given the tools they need to adequately prepare and react to changes in weather.The report the World Bank released gives a strong warning to leaders to raise their efforts to fight against climate change and provide help to thecountries who stand to lose the most. This fall, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will publish its 5th annual assessmentwith the latest information on climate change making the World Banks efforts even more necessary.
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****NEG****

NEOLIB LINKS

LIFTING THE TRADE EMBARGO LOCKS IN NEOLIBERAL CONTROL OF CUBACarmen G. Gonzalez (Associate Professor, Seattle University School of Law) Fall 2004 [SYMPOSIUM: WHITHER GOES CUBA? PROSPECTS FOR ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PART II OF II: TradeLiberalization, Food Security, and the Environment: The Neoliberal Threat to Sustainable Rural Development 14 Transnat'l L. & Contemp.Probs. 419, lexis, loghry]

The neoliberal economic reforms of the last two decades reinforced cash crop production at the expense offood production , frustrated economic [*496] diversification and industrialization, exacerbated rural poverty , and institutionalizedthe double standard that permits protectionism in the industrialized world while requiring market openness in the developing word. As explainedin Part V, leveling the playing field by eliminating the trade-distorting subsidies and protectionist import barriers of the United States and the EUis necessary but not sufficient to address the problem of hunger and environmental degradation in the developing world. First, tradeliberalization in the industrialized world will not address the distortions and inequities caused by themonopolization of agricultural markets by a small number of transnational corporations . Second, tradeliberalization, even if applied in an even-handed manner, will reinforce the specialization of many developingcountries in agricultural export production by precluding these countries from using the protectionist toolsutilized by the United States , Western Europe, Japan, and the NICs of East Asia to industrialize and diversify their economies. Third, theelimination of U.S. and EU subsidies is anticipated to increase crop specialization in the developing world, thereby undermining the biological

diversity necessary for healthy agroecosystems.Cuba is the only country in the western hemisphere that has rejected the neoliberal model and has embarkedon a nation-wide experiment in sustainable agriculture. Cuba was able to adopt an autonomous developmentpath only after the collapse of the socialist trading bloc and the tightening of the U.S. embargo . Indeed, Cuba'sunique experiment is a product of economic and political isolation. Once the U.S. economic embargo is lifted,Cuba will be under intense pressure to abandon its autonomous development path and adopt neoliberalreforms. The consequences are likely to be devastating .


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DEAD ZONES ANSWERS SOLVENCY

CANT SOLVE DEAD ZONES ANIMAL WASTE, AUTOMOBILES, COAL POWERPLANTS, AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL ALTERNATE CAUSESSally Ride Earth (NASA educational outreach program enabling students, teachers, and the public to learn about Earth from the unique

perspective of space) 2013 [Dead Zones in The Gulf of Mexico online @ https://earthkam.ucsd.edu/ek-images/investigating_images/gulfmexico, loghry]

The Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico is caused by human activities in the upstream Mississippi River watershed, andenhanced by natural changes in the environment and climate or weather . Contributors include nitrogenfertilizer, animal manure, atmospheric deposition as a result of automobiles and fossil-fueled power plants,and waste . Pollution areas as indicated by red text. Farmers spray their land with pesticides and other types of fertilizers, in order to protecttheir crops. When it rains, soil is washed off the farms and into nearby rivers and bodies of water. The farm runoff includes animal manure,fertilizers, and heavy metals. Downstream, in this case, the Mississippi River Delta and the Gulf of Mexico, the pollutants cause eutrophication the presence of an excess amount of nutrients (ie., nitrogen and phosphorous). Algal blooms result from this process. Eventually, the blooms dieand fall to the sea floor, where they then decompose. During decomposition, oxygen is consumed. In the summer, the oxygen is so depleted thatthe water becomes stratified, thus preventing the water along the ocean floor from becoming re-oxygenated. The oxygen levels fall to below theminimum amount necessary for aquatic life. The weather sun intensity, and rain also causes dead zones. Strong sunintensity (most abundant in summer) aids algal growth. High rainfall increases runoff of nutrients to the Gulf .

AFF CANT SOLVE DEAD ZONES TILE DRAINED AGRICULTURE IN THEMISSISSIPPI BASIN HAS LEAD TO FASTER INJECTION OF NITROGEN INTO THEGULF. NO MORE NITROGEN IS BEING USED NOW THAN WAS USED 30 YEARSAGO. THIS EVIDENCE QUOTES MARK DAVID, A BIOCHEMIST ANDRESEARCHER FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS**Science Daily (staff) 9/27/ 2010 [Cause of Dead Zone in Gulf: Tile Drainage Directly Related to Nitrate Loss online @http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100927122225.htm, loghry]

Sep. 27, 2010 Tile drainage in the Mississippi Basin is one of the great advances of the 19th and 20th centuries, allowing highly productiveagriculture in what was once land too wet to farm. In fact, installation of new tile systems continues every year, because it leads to increased cropyields. But a recent study shows that the most heavily tile-drained areas of North America are also the largest

contributing source of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, leading to seasonal hypoxia. In the summer of 2010 this dead zone

in the Gulf spanned over 7,000 square miles. Scientists from the U of I and Cornell University compiled information on each county in theMississippi River basin including crop acreage and yields, fertilizer inputs, atmospheric deposition, number of people, and livestock to calculateall nitrogen inputs and outputs from 1997 to 2006. For 153 watersheds in the basin, they also used measurements of nitrate concentration andflow in streams, which allowed them to develop a statistical model that explained 83 percent of the variation in springtime nitrate flow in themonitored streams. The greatest nitrate loss to streams corresponded to the highly productive, tile-drainedcornbelt from southwest Minnesota across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This area of the basin has extensive row croppingof fertilized corn and soybeans, a flat landscape with tile drainage, and channelized ditches and streams tofacilitate drainage . "Farmers are not to blame," said University of Illinois researcher Mark David. "They are using thesame amount of nitrogen as they were 30 years ago and getting much higher corn yields, but we have createda very leaky agricultural system. This allows nitrate to move quickly from fields into ditches and on to theGulf of Mexico . We need policies that reward farmers to help correct the problem." David is a biogeochemist who has been studying theissue since 1993. " We've had data from smaller watersheds for some time, but this new study includes data from theentire Mississippi Basin . It shows clearly where across the entire basin the sources of nitrate are. "A lot of people just want toblame fertilizer, but it's not that simple," David said. "It's fertilizer on intensive corn and soybean agriculturalrotations in heavily tile-drained areas . There is also an additional source of nitrogen from sewage effluent from people, although thatis a small contribution. It's all of these factors together."


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DEAD ZONES ANSWERS SOLVENCY

No Solvency more than 400 dead zonesABC 10 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation on November 30, 2010. Found athttp://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/11/30/mass-extinction-dead-zone.html ) GH

Scientists fear the planet is on the brink of another mass extinction as ocean dead zones continue to grow in size and number .

More than 400 ocean dead zones areas so low in oxygen that sea life cannot survive have been reported byoceanographers around the world between 2000 and 2008. That is compared with 300 in the 1990s and 120 in the 1980s. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoECRS) and the University of Queensland in Australia, saysthere is growing evidence that declining oxygen levels in the ocean have played a major role in at least four of the planet's five mass extinctions.

GMOs destroying biodiversity in the squoBello 9 (Walden, A Critique of Orthodox Perspectives, All Africa, Opinions,http://allafrica.com/stories/200906260740.html, AD: 6/30/09)

Proponents of GMOs have not been able to alleviate worries that transgenic foods have thepotential for creating unexpected reactions in humans unless these foods, which have never been seen before and thusnot selected for human consumption by eons of evolution, are tested rigorously in accordance with the universally recognised precautionary

principle. Neither have they been able to allay worries that non-target populations might be negativelyaffected by genetic modification aimed at specific pests , as in the case of Bt corn's impact on the monarch butterfly.Nor have they dispelled the very real threat of loss of biodiversity posed by GMOs . The risks are hardlytrifling, as noted by one account: The effects of transgenic crops on biodiversity far extend the concernsalready raised by monocropping under the Green Revolution. Not only is diversity decreased throughthe physical loss of species , but because of its 'live' aspect, it has the potential to contaminate, and potentially to dominate, otherstrains of the same species. While this may be a limited concern with respect to the contamination of another commercial crop, it issignificantly more worrisome when it could contaminate and eradicate generations of evolution of diverse and subtly differentiatedstrains of a single crop, such as the recently discovered transgenic contamination of landraces of indigenous corn in Mexico.[3]

Population growth and pollution causes of Gulf of Mexico dead zones they dont solve: Tizon, 2004 staff, Los Angeles Times, 5/6/2004; LexisPollution brought on by rapid population growth and development has caused oxygen levels in the water todrop, rendering one large section of the canal a "dead zone." The scene "is pretty frightening," said Ehrlich, 56. The growingdead zone threatens not just sea life -- Hood Canal has one of the richest shellfish beds in Puget Sound -- but the entire ecosystem, a panoply of birds andmammals, forests, and a vast network of salmon-rich rivers and streams. Also at stake is the canal's image as a pristine outpost, the last natural barrier

protecting the Olympic Peninsula from the plagues of urban sprawl. The canal makes up the peninsula's still-wild eastern edge, a watery shield against thewestward push of people and machines. Gov. Gary Locke warned recently that the canal could turn into a "dead sea." If that happened, Washington wouldlose "one of its great jewels," said state fishery biologist Duane Fagergren. The state also could see the effluence of sprawl trickle into the peninsula, one ofthe last great unspoiled areas in the West, he said. Dead zones are created by large concentrations of people and thepollution they generate. Researchers have identified dead zones in Los Angeles Harbor, Chesapeake Bay andthe Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/11/30/mass-extinction-dead-zone.htmlhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/11/30/mass-extinction-dead-zone.htmlhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2010/11/30/mass-extinction-dead-zone.html


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DEAD ZONES ANSWERS IMPACTS

Impact is empirically denied years of species loss with no impactABC News 9 (Biodiversity Crashing Australia Wide, ABC News Worldwide,http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/10/2594884.htm, AD: 6/30/09) AN

Australia has the worst record for mammal extinctions and near-extinctions of any developed nation in theworld. And according to the latest national audit of Australian biodiversity, the nation is still losing plant andanimal species on a continental scale . The Australian Terrestrial Biodiversity Assessment 2008 has been finishedfor nine months, but is yet to be officially released. Environment minister Peter Garrett's office says it is out for

peer review, but forest ecologist David Lindenmayer has told Radio National Breakfast that government attempts toturn back the tide of species losses are not working. " Biodiversity is not doing well in Australia, and it'scontinued to do very badly for quite some time ," he said. "We are seeing massive crashes of mammalpopulations in northern Australia now, and we're not seeing those in southern Australia because essentiallymammals have gone from huge areas of woodlands, and we are starting to see the bird populations crash. "According to Mr Lindenmayer, not even 10 per cent of mammal population numbers that existed in northernAustralia 10 to 15 years ago are left. In Victoria there are huge crashes in the number of birds. The Government hasimplemented a national biodiversity conservation strategy to try to reverse the trend.

No Impact - Corporations innovation solves BioD lossThome 9 (Wolfgang H., Tourism reporter, Kaf red Offers New Forest and CommunityExperience, East Africa Tourism Report, eTurbo News,http://www.eturbonews.com/10025/wolfgangs-east-africa-tourism-report, AD:6/30/09)

Former general manager of Uganda Heritage Trails, John Tinka, has now reappeared in the Fort Portal, Kibale area working at the Kibale

Association for Rural and Environmental Development, in short KAFRED. The community-based association has amongst its objectives, theaim to conserve biodiversity at the community level, promote eco-friendly tourism practices, andassist the local community to engage in sustainable business ventures. The nearby Bigodi Wetland Sanctuary isthe first manifestation of KAFREDs community engagement and on offer are guided nature walks takinganywhere between a few hours to a full day and an interpretive nature and village walks where the dailylife of a rural African community unfolds in front of visitors eyes. Traditional home -cooked meals, using fresh local ingredients, are alsoavailable for visitors, as are dance and drama sessions performed by local artists this requires prior booking, however. The local womensgroups produce curio items and handicrafts for purchase by visitors, bringing much-needed cash into the villages, while some families areavailable to open their homes and offer tourists a home stay. The Tinka family is at the forefront of this trend, of course, knowing intimately wellwhat is expected by tourist visitors from his previous work in creating the Buganda Heritage Trail in Central Uganda.

Ecosystems are resilient:Bruce Tonn , 11/1/20 07 (http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITM )

Theoretically, pursuing this goal could also be counter-productive in the long run. Presumably, through the process of evolution,collections of species evolve to create even more resilient ecosystems. Preventing evolution through maintenance ofthe status quo, then, would restrict earth-life's ability to adapt to new conditions and situations. Given that it is certain thatconditions on earth will change--for instance, we know that the continents will continue to drift and alter ocean currents, which, in turn, couldlead to devastating global climate change--preventing the evolution in the composition of the totality of earth-life could actually lower the

probability that earth-life will be able to survive into the distant future under normal circumstances. Thus, futures sustainability requires themaintenance of functioning bioregions, not the biological status quo.
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITMhttp://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITMhttp://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITMhttp://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITM


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DEAD ZONES ANSWERS -- IMPACTS

All ecosystems not critical to biodiversity:Bruce Tonn , 11/1/ 2007 (http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-33265107_ITM )

It should be clear, though, that protecting biodiversity does not mean that it is necessary that the status quo of allecosystems on earth be maintained [13]. Taken literally, that is an impossible goal because there will always befluctuations in species populations if only due to annual changes in weather and precipitation.

Re-speciation will rapidly fill in the vacuumMcKinney 98Michael L. McKinney, 1998, Biodiversity Dynamics : Niche Preemption and Saturation in Diversity Equilibria,Biodiversity Dynamics: Turnover of Populations, Taxa, and Communities, Chapter 1, Michael L. McKinney andJames A. Drake, eds. http://www.earthscape.org/r3/mckinney/mckinney01.html

A key prediction of the niche preemption model is that, as incumbent occupants of niches are not dislodge