B R S S E M I N A R S E R I E S P R E S E N T S :

Friday 9 September

Thinking About Future Challenges forNatural Resource Management

Steven Cork – Land & Water AustraliaKate Delaney – Delaney & Associates

Not all aspects of the future are predictable, no matter how much information we gather.Methods like scenario planning aim to bring together analysis of past trends with informedimagination about plausible future trends and events to address questions like “what mightwe need to be prepared for” and “how might we get early warning of which possible futureis unfolding”. But often when people are brought together to think about the future they feelill-informed and ill-equipped to make a contribution. This was the experience in Land &Water Australia in 2003, which prompted that organisation to embark on a project to pulltogether information on past trends, drivers of future change and plausible challenges forthe future of natural resource policy and management. In this seminar we will report on theprocess and outcomes of that project and discuss more broadly the ways in whichstructured thinking about the future is being used in organisations in Australasia andaround the world.

11.00am - 12:00noon (morning tea at 10:45am)Edmund Barton Conference Centre (in the courtyard)

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and ForestryEdmund Barton BuildingKings Avenue, Canberra

Bookings not required.Parking can be a problem, we suggest taking a taxi.

For further details, please call the BRS Seminar Coordinator on 6272 4011.

For further information on BRS Seminars or to obtain papers/presentations supplied byprevious seminar presenters, please visit our website at: www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars

Future Challenges for NRMSteve Cork (CSIRO)

andKate Delaney (Delaney and Associates)

• Futures Thinking …(the LWA project-content)

• Taking the approachfurther (process)

Walker et al (2002)

ECOLOGICAL SURPRISESOF THE 20th CENTURY

˛ Pests and pathogens rapidlyevolve resistance to biocides

˛ Toxins are biomagnified infood chains

˛ Emergence of disease isfacilitated by irrigation,suburbanization, fertilization

˛ Removing top predatorscauses ecologicalreorganization