get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsshop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19...

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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S Southern Bluefin Tuna: Get ‘em while stocks last? James Findlay – BRS Friday 17 December Despite significant cuts in global catch in the mid-80s, the Southern Bluefin Tuna stock has fallen to dangerously low levels. Urgent management action is required to protect the species and the fisheries that depend upon it. However, since the 80s, it has been almost impossible to get international agreement on action to rebuild the stock and numerous countries have entered the global fishery and eroded the benefits of previous management. Australia will strive for effective international management but, if international agreement can’t be reached, should Australia take unilateral action to reduce its’ catch or “get ‘em while stocks last?”

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Page 1: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Southern Bluefin Tuna:Get ‘em while stocks last?

James Findlay – BRSFriday 17 December

Despite significant cuts in global catch in the mid-80s, the Southern Bluefin Tuna stock has fallen to dangerously low levels. Urgent management action is required to protect the species and the fisheries that depend upon it. However, since the 80s, it has been almost impossible to get international agreement on action to rebuild the stock and numerous countries have entered the global fishery and eroded the benefits of previous management. Australia will strive for effective international management but, if international agreement can’t be reached, should Australia take unilateral action to reduce its’ catch or “get ‘em while stocks last?”

Page 2: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Southern Bluefin Tuna: Get ‘em while stocks last?

James Findlay, BRS

Page 3: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 4: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

Photo: Kerstin Fritsches

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 5: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Life History

• Relatively fast growing• Reaches 200cm and 200kg• Lives to 40+ yrs• Average age at first maturity – 12yrs

Page 6: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 7: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 8: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Ghost of SBT Past

Page 9: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

Global SBT Catch

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1952195619601964196819721976198019841988199219962000

Year

Cat

ch (t

)

OtherIndonesiaTaiwanKoreaNew ZealandJapanAustralia

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 10: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Parental Stock relative to 1960 Levels

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

year

perc

ent

Page 11: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

THE DEBATE

Page 12: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

THE DISPUTE

Page 13: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Global SBT Catch

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Cat

ch (t

)

MiscIndonesiaPhilippinesTaiwanKoreaNew ZealandJapanAustralia

Page 14: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Ghost of SBT Present

Page 15: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 16: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 17: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 18: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Recent Recruitment

Assessment/Indicator Recent TrendConditioning Model ↓Length-Based VPA ↓Acoustic survey ↓Aerial survey ↓Catch-at- Age for All LL ↓Commercial Spotting ↓Taiwan LL CPUE ↔Juvenile Range ↓

Page 19: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Any good news?

Page 20: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 21: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Ghost of SBT Future

Page 22: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Page 23: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

Management Procedure TAC Changes

00.20.40.6

0.81

1.21.4

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Parental Stock

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

Management Choices

1. International agreement to cuts2. Australia alone takes cuts 3. Or……get ‘em while stock last

2003

Page 26: Get ‘em while stocks last?data.daff.gov.au/brs/brsShop/data/13027_findlay17dec.pdf · 76 19 80 19 84 19 8 8 1 9 92 19 96 20 00 Year C a tc h (t) Other Indonesia Taiwan Korea New

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

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S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

BRS SEMINAR 2005Friday 4 February

Improving Climate Risk Management in Australia’s Southern Livestock Industries

Greg Laughlin - BRSSimon Knapp - BRSSimon Barry - BRS