the global land project: an international context for...

B R S S E M I N A R S E R I E S P R E S E N T S :

Friday 25 November

The Global Land Project: an internationalcontext for Australian analysis of human

transformation of ecosystems and landscapes

Dr Michael Hill – BRS

The Global Land Project (GLP) is a new international initiative to measure,model and understand the interactive human-environment system. Theproject, an output of the International Human Dimensions Program andInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Program, recognises the relationshipbetween humans and their environments and the response of the human-environment system to global change.

The seminar will examine the main themes in the project’s researchframework, the GLP Science Plan, and relate these to existing projectactivities in the Bureau of Rural Sciences.

The seminar will also outline the benefits to DAFF, Australia and the globalcommunity of involvement with the project such as contribution to the globalissues, access to international funding and quantitative methods andenhancement of international reputation.

11.00am - 12:00noon (morning tea at 10:45am)*Bottom Paddock (DAFF Basement)

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and ForestryEdmund Barton BuildingKings Avenue, Canberra

Bookings not required.Parking can be a problem, we suggest taking public transport or a taxi.

For further details, please call the BRS Seminar Coordinator on 6272 4011.

For further information on BRS Seminars or to obtain papers/presentations supplied byprevious seminar presenters, please visit our website at: www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E , F I S H E R I E S A N D F O R E S T R Y

S C I E N C E F O R D E C I S I O N M A K E R S

The Global Land Project: An InternationalThe Global Land Project: An InternationalContext for Australian Analysis of HumanContext for Australian Analysis of Human

Transformation of Ecosystems andTransformation of Ecosystems andLandscapesLandscapes

Michael Hill, BRS

Acknowledgements: Richard Aspinall, Damian Barrett, Rob Lesslie, KelleyCrews-Meyer, Roy Haines-Young, Ian Byron, Jean Chesson, Frans Berkhout,

GLP Science Plan

Hidden logging hits Amazon rainforestsHidden logging hits Amazon rainforestsll October 22, 2005 WASHINGTON: TheOctober 22, 2005 WASHINGTON: The

rainforests of the Amazon are being destroyedrainforests of the Amazon are being destroyedtwice as quickly as previously thought, withtwice as quickly as previously thought, withcompanies exploiting less easily detectablecompanies exploiting less easily detectablelogging techniques, satellite images reveal.logging techniques, satellite images reveal.

ll An imaging method developed by scientists inAn imaging method developed by scientists inthe US has shown for the first time thethe US has shown for the first time thedamaging effects of "selective logging", in whichdamaging effects of "selective logging", in whichtrees are thinned out, but the forest is nottrees are thinned out, but the forest is notcleared completely.cleared completely.

ll The images indicate that an area of more thanThe images indicate that an area of more than13,000sqkm is disturbed in this way every year.13,000sqkm is disturbed in this way every year.

ll The TimesThe Times

Science, Vol 310, Issue 5747, 480-482 , 21 October 2005. Selective Logging in the Brazilian AmazonGregory P. Asner,* David E. Knapp, Eben N. Broadbent, Paulo J. C. Oliveira, Michael Keller, Jose N. Silva

Photograph courtesy Gregory P. Asner/CarnegieInstitution of Washington

New Carnegie Landsat Analysis System(CLAS) provides automated image analysisusing atmospheric modeling; detection offorest canopy openings, surface debris, andbare soil exposed by forest disturbances;and pattern-recognition techniques.

OutlineOutline

ll International Human Dimensions ProgramInternational Human Dimensions Program

ll Global Global Activites Activites under the Earth Systemsunder the Earth SystemsScience PartnershipScience Partnership

ll Global Land Project (GLP)Global Land Project (GLP)

ll Some issues in analysis of coupled humanSome issues in analysis of coupled humanenvironment systemsenvironment systems

ll BRS and how our work already links to GLPBRS and how our work already links to GLP

ll Some thoughts BRS/GLP synergiesSome thoughts BRS/GLP synergies

New Challenges for the 21st Century

The 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of GlobalEnvironmental Change Research Community

!University of Bonn, 9-13 October 2005

Global EnvironmentalChange, Globalisation and

International Security

IHDP

Session on spatial andtemporal analysis methodsfor linking socio-economicand biophysical data- Co-chaired and 2 BRSpapers

IHDP is an international,interdisciplinary and non-governmental scienceorganization, dedicated topromoting, catalyzing andcoordinating research, capacity-building, and networking on thehuman dimensions of globalenvironmental change.

It takes a social scienceperspective on global changeand it works at the interfacebetween science and practice.

IHDP MissionIHDP MissionTo generate scientific knowledge on coupled socio-To generate scientific knowledge on coupled socio-

environmental systems, and to achieve comprehensiveenvironmental systems, and to achieve comprehensiveunderstanding of global environmental change processesunderstanding of global environmental change processesand their consequences for sustainable development.and their consequences for sustainable development.

It aims at making contributions to explore:It aims at making contributions to explore:

ll the anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change,the anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change,

ll the impact of such change on human welfare,the impact of such change on human welfare,

ll and societal responses to mitigate and adapt to globaland societal responses to mitigate and adapt to globalenvironmental change.environmental change.

IHDP’s Seven Core Research Projects

• Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS)

• Industrial Transformation (IT)

• Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change(IDGEC)

• Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) Completed*

• Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ)*

• Urbanization (starting 2005)

• Global Land Project (starting 2005)*

*co-sponsored by IGBP

A socio-technical systemA socio-technical system

Frans Berkhout, Industrial Transformation, IHDP

IssuesIssues1.1. Social and ecological development are becoming moreSocial and ecological development are becoming more

intensively linked through timeintensively linked through time

2.2. The right unit of analysis is the The right unit of analysis is the ‘‘socio-technical systemsocio-technical system’’

3.3. Change in socio-technical systems is a long-term and multi-Change in socio-technical systems is a long-term and multi-

level process full of uncertaintylevel process full of uncertainty

Frans Berkhout, Industrial Transformation, IHDP

Question: If we don’t modify the socio-technical systems,

then,

can we actually do anything about the trajectory of thecoupled human environment system?

HumanHealth

IHDP

IHDP is an active partner in the EarthSystem Science Partnership (ESSP).This partnership was established in 2001by the four global change programmes -DIVERSITAS, the internationalprogramme on biodiversity science,theInternational Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme (IGBP), the World ClimateResearch Programme (WCRP), andIHDP.

The Global Carbon Project (GCP)The Global Environmental Change

and Food Systems (GECAFS)The Global Water System Project

(GWSP)A Human Health and Global

Environmental Change project iscurrently under development.

ESSP2006 – Beijing November 2006

Genesis of the Global Land ProjectGenesis of the Global Land Project

Increased emphasis on human element –both actions and consequences

Land use/cover changeelement

Land process element

GLP analytical structure. Figure 4 in: GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBPSecretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.

GlobalLand

Project

The Global Land Project studies theThe Global Land Project studies thecoupled human-environmental systemcoupled human-environmental system

1.1. To identify the agents,To identify the agents,structures, and nature ofstructures, and nature ofchange in coupled socio-change in coupled socio-environmental systems onenvironmental systems onland and quantify theirland and quantify theireffects on the coupledeffects on the coupledsystemsystem

2.2. To assess how the provisionTo assess how the provisionof ecosystem services isof ecosystem services isaffected by (1)affected by (1)

3.3. To identify the character andTo identify the character anddynamics of vulnerable anddynamics of vulnerable andsustainable coupled socio-sustainable coupled socio-environmental land systemsenvironmental land systemsto interacting perturbations,to interacting perturbations,including climate changeincluding climate change

The Global Land Project studies theThe Global Land Project studies thecoupled human-environmental systemcoupled human-environmental system

1.1. Dynamics of land-systemsDynamics of land-systems

2.2. Consequences ofConsequences ofland-system changesland-system changes

3.3. Integrating analysis andIntegrating analysis andmodelling for landmodelling for landsustainabilitysustainability

T1. Dynamics of Land-SystemsT1. Dynamics of Land-Systems

ßß How do globalisation andHow do globalisation andpopulation change affect regionalpopulation change affect regionaland local land use decisions andand local land use decisions andpractices?practices?

ßß How do changes in landHow do changes in landmanagement, decisions andmanagement, decisions andpractices affect biogeochemistry,practices affect biogeochemistry,biodiversity, biophysical properties,biodiversity, biophysical properties,and disturbance regimes ofand disturbance regimes ofterrestrial and aquatic ecosystems?terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems?

ßß How do the atmospheric,How do the atmospheric,biogeochemical and biophysicalbiogeochemical and biophysicaldimensions of global change affectdimensions of global change affectecosystem structure and function?ecosystem structure and function?

T2. Consequences ofT2. Consequences of L Land-and-System ChangeSystem Change

ßß What are the critical feedbacksWhat are the critical feedbacksfrom changes in ecosystems tofrom changes in ecosystems tothe coupled Earth system?the coupled Earth system?

ßß How do changes in ecosystemHow do changes in ecosystemstructure and functioning affectstructure and functioning affectthe delivery of ecosystemthe delivery of ecosystemservices?services?

ßß How are ecosystem servicesHow are ecosystem serviceslinked to human well-being?linked to human well-being?

ßß How do people respond atHow do people respond atvarious scales and in differentvarious scales and in differentcontexts to changes incontexts to changes inecosystem service provision?ecosystem service provision?

T3. Integrating Analysis andT3. Integrating Analysis andModelling for Land SustainabilityModelling for Land Sustainability

ßß What are the critical pathways ofWhat are the critical pathways ofchange in land-systems?change in land-systems?

ßß How do the vulnerability andHow do the vulnerability andresilience of land-systems toresilience of land-systems tohazards and disturbances varyhazards and disturbances varyin response to changes inin response to changes inhuman and environmenthuman and environmentinteractions?interactions?

ßß Which institutions enhanceWhich institutions enhancedecision making anddecision making andgovernance for the sustainabilitygovernance for the sustainabilityof land-systems?of land-systems?

GLP Cross-Cutting ThemesGLP Cross-Cutting Themes

ll Mountain Research InitiativeMountain Research Initiative ? ?

ll Arid LandsArid Lands * *

ll Aquatic Ecosystems *Aquatic Ecosystems *

ll Agro-ecosystems *Agro-ecosystems *

ll Urban-rural GradientUrban-rural Gradient * *

ll Carbon ManagementCarbon Management * *

Scientific IssuesScientific Issues

ll Move away from disciplinary fragmentationMove away from disciplinary fragmentation

ll Develop true integrationDevelop true integration

ll Develop methods for scaling acrossDevelop methods for scaling acrossdimensionsdimensions

ll Develop methods to incorporate history andDevelop methods to incorporate history andtimetime

Scales of interest in coupled human-Scales of interest in coupled human-environment systemsenvironment systems

•• BiologicalBiological –– genetic, species, ecosystem, landscape genetic, species, ecosystem, landscape

•• TemporalTemporal –– variable between events and processes variable between events and processes

•• SocialSocial –– primary (contact), secondary (emotional e.g. primary (contact), secondary (emotional e.g.laws), tertiary (qualitative e.g. values)laws), tertiary (qualitative e.g. values)

•• SpatialSpatial –– many hierarchies based on numerous many hierarchies based on numerousattributesattributes

(Sexton et al., 1998)(Sexton et al., 1998)

Background2 stable, 1 increaseIncrease, stable, stableTwo increase, one stableTwo increase, one decreaseAll increaseIncrease, decrease, decreaseIncrease, stable, decreaseThree dissimilar

SpatioSpatio-temporal-temporalanalysis analysis –– pattern pattern

changes in patcheschanges in patches

There is a science andanalytical need to

• develop new methods and

• assign meaning

Kelley Crews-Meyer, University of Texas

Interspersion-juxtaposition indextrajectory through three dates

R2 = 0.7643

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

0 10 20 30 40

Forest edge (m.ha-1)

Ann

ual d

efor

esta

tion

rat

e

Andres Etter, University of Queensland

Edge metrics and deforestation rates

Diverse Scales, Domains and Data QualityDiverse Scales, Domains and Data Quality

ll Policy and Management IssuesPolicy and Management Issues……..llContexts matterContexts matter……llWhat are the policy contexts in whichWhat are the policy contexts in which

our analysis and models are set?our analysis and models are set?

llHow do we put context into our analysisHow do we put context into our analysisand models?and models?

Roy Haines-Young, University of Nottingham

ll Landscapes of FateLandscapes of Fatell What kinds ofWhat kinds of

landscapes arelandscapes arelikely?likely?ll Vested interestsVested interests

ll Attitudes, values andAttitudes, values andbehavioursbehaviours

ll Landscapes ofLandscapes ofDesireDesirell What kinds ofWhat kinds of

landscape do peoplelandscape do peoplewant?want?ll PeoplePeople’’s Choicess Choices

ll PeoplePeople’’s Visionss Visions

Some contexts for building land useSome contexts for building land usescenariosscenarios

Uses of Scenarios:• Pressure on government for change?• Can the case be convincing enough?

Uses of Scenarios:• Pressure on government for change?• Can the case be convincing enough?

Roy Haines-Young, University of Nottingham

Klein Goldewijk: HYDE (2001)

Global Historical Data

1700

1900 1990

1800

Global Landscape of fate?

Landscape of fate?

time

state

Sustainability Choice space:A set of landscapes that are more

or less sustainable in terms of output of ecosystem goods and services

Potschin & Haines-Young (2005),

see also GLP Fig 3, critical decision space

Potschin & Haines-Young (2005),

see also GLP Fig 3, critical decision space

How do we put context into ourHow do we put context into ouranalysis, models and decisions?analysis, models and decisions?

Roy Haines-Young,University ofNottingham

Modelling Coupled Natural-Human SystemsModelling Coupled Natural-Human Systemsll LuhmannLuhmann (1989) views society as a (1989) views society as a centerlesscenterless set of set of ‘‘function systemsfunction systems’’

that constrain both what can be communicated and how it is communicated.that constrain both what can be communicated and how it is communicated.ll He labels economy, law, science, politics, religion, and education as theHe labels economy, law, science, politics, religion, and education as the

most important function systems in contemporary society.most important function systems in contemporary society.

Grant, W. E., Peterson, T. R. and Peterson, M. J. (2002). Quantitative modelling of coupled natural/human systems: simulation ofsocietal constraints on environmental action drawing on Luhmann’s social theory. Ecological Modelling 158, 143-165

AnnualPolitics

EconomicsQuarterly

Education

MonthlyLaw

ReligionDaily

Science

Data Information Cultural Knowledge

Externalcommunication

SocietalSub-systems

Information

Active – translatedinto code of

functionsubsystem

Inactive – not yettranslated into thecode of function

subsystem

Tra

nsl

atio

n

Bureau of Rural SciencesBureau of Rural Sciences

ClimateImpacts

•drought support•tools to manageclimate risk•climate changeimpacts

IntegratedWater

Management• water availability• quality and salinitymapping• connectivity• allocation of surfaceand groundwater

LandManagement

•Land use mapping•Land use change•Pests and weed impacts•Carbon cycle science•Land managementpractices•Biotechnology

Social Sciences

Forest andVegetationSciences

•Forest and vegetationmapping•Forest and vegetationinventory•Ecosystem services

Information and Risk Sciences

Fisheriesand Marine

Environment•Managed fisheries,Marine environment•Sharedinternationalfisheries•Structuraladjustment

Human-EnvironmentLand System

Rural-Urban Interface

Business, insurance, and governance interface

Gove

rnm

ent

Dec

isio

n-M

akin

g

Govt

Govt

GLPGLPT1. Land systems

dynamics

T2. Consequencesof land system

change

T3. Integratinganalysis andmodelling for

landsustainability

Decisions andpractices

BiogeochemistryBiophysicsBiodiversityDisturbance

Ecosystemstructure and

functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change

Vulnerabilityand resilience

Institutions –decisions andgovernance

22 year Archive

Obs

Obs

Forward model

Model Dataassimilation

Dynamics

MODIS

AVHRR

NBAR reflectance Land surface Temp

Albedo Vegetation Indices(1km, 500m, 250m)

LAI, fPAR, GPP, NPP

MODIS cluster12 Terabyte16 processor

CSIRO BRS CRCGA

NASA C Cycle Science Project

Data

ClimateProducts(eg Silo)

Ground &atm obs

ERS-2 ATSR Fire 1995 - 2002

Product

Africa,South

America

Distur

banc

e Grazing

Damian Barrett, CSIRO

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics

Consequencesof land system

change

Integratinganalysis andmodelling for

landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



Example: Social Survey Example: Social Survey –– Biophysical Analysis Biophysical AnalysisQuestion 1: Question 1: Do landholdersDo landholders’’ perception and maps of salinity perception and maps of salinity

discharge agree?discharge agree?

Answer 1: Landholders who identified salinity on their property57% inside discharge areas; 22% outside discharge areas

If discharge maps are right 43% of landholders in areas of mapped for salinity discharge were unaware of salinity on theirproperty

Ian Byron, BRS

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics


change


landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



Ecosystem servicesEcosystem services

BRS Sponsored Workshop November 2-3 2005-55 participants

-ES useful framework

-Need for problemspecific definition andcontext

-Goods and services andfunctioning ecosystems

From GLP point of view-Data and methodsimportant

Richard Thackway, BRS

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics


change


landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



tenure

land managementpractice

land cover commodity

dynamics

transformation

prediction

areal change

Temporal analysis

land use

Describing human activity in landscapes

Spatial analysis

Landscape occupation

Lesslie, R., Barson, M. and Smith, J. (2005). Land use information for integrated natural resources management – acoordinated national mapping program for Australia.. Journal of Land Use Science (in review)

Rob Lesslie, BRS

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics


change


landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



Frameworks for Sectoral ContributionsFrameworks for Sectoral Contributionsand Impactsand Impacts

Signposts for Australian Agriculture

Jean Chesson, BRS

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics


change


landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



Multi-Criteria AnalysisMulti-Criteria Analysis

Data and measurements

Classifications

Census and surveys

Model outputs

Spatial measures

Time series metrics

Unitlessindexes

ES Themes

Transformation

Opinions, views and perceptions

Water

Carbon

Amenity

Production

Ecosystemfunction

Species andhabitats

Etc

System descriptors

Overall Index

Institutional and financial constructs

Participatory iterationWeights and views

Rigorous methodsBayesian networks

Enabling Flexible and InteractiveEnabling Flexible and InteractiveMulti-Criteria AnalysisMulti-Criteria Analysis

Hill, M. J., Lesslie, R., Barry, A. and Barry, S. M. (2005). A simple, portable, spatial multi criteria analysis shell – MCAS-S. MODSIM2005, International Symposium on Modelling and Simulation, University of Melbourne, 12-15 December, 2005 (in press).

Rob Lesslie and Michael Hill, BRS

MCAS-S ProjectMCAS-S Project

Combines spatia

l data w

ith a co

gnitive m

apping

arrangement i.

e. a sp

atially

explic

it reaso

ning framework

Rob Lesslie and Michael Hill, BRS

GLPGLPLand systems

dynamics


change


landsustainability




functionCritical

feedbacks

Ecosystem services

Humanwell-being

Human responses

Pathways to change



Key policy element

Synthesising InsightsSynthesising Insights

ll Bottom upBottom up

ll Top downTop down

ll IntegrativeIntegrative

ll IncrementalIncremental

ll IterativeIterative

ll Hidden and emergent properties andHidden and emergent properties andeffectseffects

BRSBRSll Unique positionUnique positionll Wide technical capability and linked to other agenciesWide technical capability and linked to other agencies

ll Highly integrated with policy developmentHighly integrated with policy development

ll Social scienceSocial science

ll Collaborative with ABARECollaborative with ABARE

ll Co-ordinating across jurisdictionCo-ordinating across jurisdiction

ll Australia as an example socio-technical coupledAustralia as an example socio-technical coupledsystemsystemll Arid and climate dependentArid and climate dependent

ll Advanced economyAdvanced economy

ll Advanced science and application orientationAdvanced science and application orientation

One of the mostimportant areas of the

GLP will be the researchon

T 3.2 Vulnerabilityand resilience

This is an area where BRS andAustralia can:• make a global contribution• draw insights from globalactivities

A Science-Policy Feedback in Coupled HumanEnvironment Systems

Hidden logging hits AmazonHidden logging hits Amazonrainforestsrainforests

ll October 22, 2005 WASHINGTON: The rainforests ofOctober 22, 2005 WASHINGTON: The rainforests ofthe Amazon are being destroyed twice as quickly asthe Amazon are being destroyed twice as quickly aspreviously thought, with companies exploiting lesspreviously thought, with companies exploiting lesseasily detectable logging techniques, satellite imageseasily detectable logging techniques, satellite imagesreveal.reveal.

ll An imaging method developed by scientists in the USAn imaging method developed by scientists in the UShas shown for the first time the damaging effects ofhas shown for the first time the damaging effects of"selective logging", in which trees are thinned out, but"selective logging", in which trees are thinned out, butthe forest is not cleared completely.the forest is not cleared completely.

ll The images indicate that an area of more thanThe images indicate that an area of more than13,000sqkm is disturbed in this way every year.13,000sqkm is disturbed in this way every year.

ll The TimesThe Times

Science, Vol 310, Issue 5747, 480-482 , 21 October 2005. Selective Logging in the Brazilian AmazonGregory P. Asner,* David E. Knapp, Eben N. Broadbent, Paulo J. C. Oliveira, Michael Keller, Jose N. Silva

Photograph courtesy Gregory P. Asner/CarnegieInstitution of Washington

New Carnegie Landsat Analysis System(CLAS) provides automated image analysisusing atmospheric modeling; detection offorest canopy openings, surface debris, andbare soil exposed by forest disturbances;and pattern-recognition techniques.

We

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it b

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the global land project: an international context for...

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