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Telecommunications Industry Brief

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Telecommunications Industry Brief. How to keep up with the pace of change?. Strategic Challenge. High uncertainty about future No time to make decisions Difficult to catch-up as pace increases Tough competition penalizes mistakes. Planning is limited Reacting is insufficient - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Telecommunications Industry Brief

Page 2: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Strategic Challenge

How to keep up with the pace of change?

High uncertainty about future

No time to make decisions

Difficult to catch-up as pace increases

Tough competition penalizes mistakes

Planning is limited

Reacting is insufficient

Traditional strategies of “build and defend a position” are inadequate

Page 3: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Fortresses No Longer Exist

Intel could try to defend its fortress…

• Superior technical capabilities

• Substantial capital barriers to entry

• Dominant market share

• “Only the paranoid survive”• Advantage is assumed temporary

• Strategy is complicated and surprising• Price cutting in NICs• Innovation into MMX technology• $500 million investment in over 50 media,

Internet and graphics companies• Downmarket microprocessors for under

$1,000 PCs• Expanded product line• Laptop-specific microprocessor• New, “cheap” chips• New “express bus” chips

…but chooses not to

Page 4: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Time Pacing

Common experience

*FootnoteSource: Sources

Myths Best practice

• Need for change is not anticipated

• Initiating change takes too long

• Change frequently loses momentum

• Best solution is to react to events as quickly as possible (event triggered)

• Drive change with internal metronome (clock driven change)

• Monitor own processes and the market for rhythms

• Set the pace • Choreograph transitions

Page 5: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Time Pacing Examples

Company Activity Pacing

Addition of new manufacturing capacity

Builds new facility every 9 months

Opening of new retail outlet

Opens 300 stores each year to hit target of 2,000 by year 2000

Launch of new products 40% of sales from products launched in last 5 years (in 1997 achieved 49%)

Jack Welch’s calendar Like seasons of the year, Welch manages through a rhythm of regular, seasonal activities

Page 6: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Common experience Myths Best practice

• Innovative ideas suffer from poor execution

• Company aspires to lead, but always seems to follow industry

• “Analysis-paralysis”

• Successful companies are run by a braintrust of a few, smart senior executives

• Success is driven by an army of revolutionaries

• Successful companies• Operate on the fly• Limit information• Eliminate conflict

• A few rules, neither bureaucracy nor chaos

• Structure key outcomes with responsibilities

• Structure key activities with priorities

• Success is driven by more information (real time), not less and fact-based debate

Improvisation

Page 7: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Improvisation – Semi-Structure ExamplesCompany Limited set of rules

• Strict product development priorities• Products released in three stages – internal, beta, full

launch• Priorities managed, not projects – spontaneous content

encouraged• “We live on the edge”

• Clear ranking of which types of molecules are research priorities

• Maximum number of molecule types pursued at any one time

• Projects “killed” according to step charts

• Movies must• Center on a basic human condition and a flawed, but

sympathetic character• Have a clear beginning, middle, and end• Disciplined financing (50% more efficient than

industry standard)

F I L M S

(The Crying Game Pulp FictionThe English PatientChasing AmyCinema Paradiso)

Page 8: Telecommunications Industry Brief

• Annual strategic plans are created, then filed and ignored

• Strategic plans are often wrong in hindsight

• Short-term performance pressure takes priority over future thinking

Myths Best practice

• Planning predicts the future

• Planning is a waste of time, it is better just to react

• Build vision of business, not industry

• Probe the future• Wide variety (time and content)

of low-cost probes to create insight

• Constant, thin attention• Hypotheses and evaluation

metrics tied to probes

• 5-week schedule, 5-month plan, 15-month intuition

Probing

Common experience

Page 9: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Probing ExamplesCompany Examples

• “You’ve got to experiment…strategy is about buying options…then picking the best ones to pursue” – John Browne, CEO

• Drilling experiments on Andrew oil field led to revolutionary horizontal drilling technique

• Used limited JV with Safeway to experiment with integrated food and fuel convenience stores

• Gates calls probes “feelers”• “You’ve got to make sure you have feelers out to see when things are about

to achieve critical mass”• Currently limited backing of three different video compression technologies• Creates probes with internal projects, alliances, and acquisitions • Both shorter term probes and “Blue Sky” projects

• Schwab’s approach is to use market to fine-tune new products; as a result, they “release products at a blistering rate, some hit and some wither, but the flood keeps coming” – Forbes

• Develop experimental products/services in-house• Futures trading• Market Buzz• AdvisorSource• Uses alliances for further experiments• IPOs with Goldman Sachs• Direct life insurance with Great West Life

Page 10: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Making Probing HappenFuture focused meetings

Futurists

Pilot markets Experimental products and services

Alliances/ JVs

Scenario planning

Acquisitions

Market research

5 years

3 years

2 years

18 months

6 months

• Design a probe portfolio• Range of time frames• Range of technologies• Range of probe types• Always low cost• More random probes when

more uncertainty• Measure results• At some point, accelerate

investment in direction of probe or eliminate it

Page 11: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Regeneration

Common experience Myths Best practice

• New business opportunities suffocate in shadow of legacy ones

• New businesses thrive while traditional businesses languish

• Roadblocks on previously successful growth paths

• New businesses succeed only when isolated from traditional ones

• Diversification is successful when managers build and extend a tightly woven set of competencies

• Drive successful diversified growth when

• Traditional businesses are combined with new approaches

• Multiple growth paths are traveled

• 3 Rs: rearchitecture, recombination, and refresh are used

• Thinking is modular• Existing businesses are culled

Page 12: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Regeneration ExamplesCompany Examples

• Diversified into high-volume, low-cost, in-store banking outlets with supermarket-style service sales force

• Newly trained salesforce used to re-vitalize traditional branch network

• Entry into luxury market with Lexus, built on• Discarded, experimental, midsize, Asian market product platform• New dealerships, brand images, styling, technology• Rearchitected selected engineering features• Refreshed lower priced name plates with Lexus technology

• Recognized modularity of brewery, wholesale business, and retailing/hospitality skills

• Diversified into resort hotels, restaurants, nursing homes, and health clubs based on retailing/hospitality skills

• Divested smaller, less profitable brewery operations

• Sophisticated combination of varied mutations, recombinations, and refreshers• Combined camera skills (optics technology, management of dealers, high-volume

assembly) and new copier product • Combined print engines from copiers with new laser printers product and OEM

channel into print engine business• Refreshed copier business with sophisticated control technology from laser printers• Recombined dealer management, high-volume assembly, copier and laser printer

technology to launch fax machines business

Page 13: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Agenda

Local Services and Strategies

Long Distance Service and Strategies

Integrated Carrier Strategies

Voice over Whatever

Page 14: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Local Market Dynamics

Large, slow growth market

Competition really just beginning

Lots of M&A activity

SBC/Pac Bell/ SNET/ Ameritech

Bell Atlantic/ NYNEX/ GTE

WorldCom/MFS/Brooks

AT&T/ TCG/ TCI

Page 15: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Revenues for ILECs only, excludes non-telecom revenues

ILEC Local Market Revenues$98.6 Billion, 1997

Local Services

51.9%

Access33.6%

Toll10.2%

Dir Revenue4.3%

Page 16: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Residential - 54%Business - 42%

ILEC Local Services Market$51.1 Billion, 1997

Local P/L3.3%

Termination/connections

13.3%

Dial tone70.1%

Pay phone3.9%other

0.2%

Features9.2%

Page 17: Telecommunications Industry Brief

What Defines the CLECs?

The Telecom Act of 1996 transformed CAPs into CLECs and created the rise of an integrated carrier approach. It also sparked the entrance of other “new” competitive local exchange carriers- both start-ups and existing carriers.

CLECs are among the fastest growing , and are clearly the first wave of Integrated Carriers because they were able to leverage existing infrastructure to offer a broader portfolio of services.

CLECs are diverse; different target markets, service mixes and technology solutions.

Competition is driving carriers to unprecedented levels of business, service and infrastructure complexity

Page 18: Telecommunications Industry Brief

LD/Toll15%

Data5%

Local Exchange

22%

Switched access

7%

Systems Integration

13%

Special & P/L38%

Domestic Revenues Only

1997- $3.1B

Data6%

Switched access

11%

LD/Toll23%

Systems Integration

7% Special & P/L24%

Local Exchange

29%

2000- $9B

CLEC Revenue Mix1997 & 2000

Page 19: Telecommunications Industry Brief

CLEC Profiles

Intermediate • East Coast emphasis with extended Frame Relay to the West Coast and Texas

• Nationwide Frame Relay servicethrough the UNISPAN consortium

• The target market for Intermedia isbusinesses with between 50 and 500lines that can ultimately be servedon-net.

• Also targeting larger accounts with its inter-city data services andinternet services

• 365 Intermedia sales peopleand a total of 617 salespeople when Shared Tech.,LDS, and national Tel areadded

• 102 Sales Offices located throughout the US

ICG • Regional carrier• Focuses on clusters in Ohio

Valley, Texas SouthernCalifornia; Colorado;North Carolina; Alabama;and Tennessee.

• New network in Atlanta for 1998 and no additionalnetworks planned

• Primarily focuses on Tier Iand Tier II.

• Sells to small and medium-sizedbusinesses of 5 to 100 lines with astrong emphasis on accounts with15 to 50 lines.

• Utility agreements will bring onMultiple-dwelling units as a target market

• ICG is trying to leverage its existing client relationships to sell bundledsolutions.

• Sales force is estimated at roughly 300+.

• Also leverages itsrelationship with utilities toexpand into residential andbusiness markets.

TCG • Nationwide footprint covering 28 of the 30 largest MSAs.

• BizTel footprint-206 areasincluding 96 of the top 100 MSAs.

• Focus on Tier I cities someemphasis on Tier II andTier III cities.

• New emphasis on regional corridors.

• Target larger businesses (550 linesor more) in certain verticals such asFinancial Services, Healthcare,Education, Gov’t and Mediacompanies.

• Other Key market is on-netsmall/medium businesses (500 linesor less.)

• Very limited residential play.

• Sales channels include bothdirect sales force (689+ salesrepresentatives) and agentsand resellers (approx. 2000.)

Geographic service area Key Customer Focus Sales Organization

Page 20: Telecommunications Industry Brief

CLEC Profiles

GST • Regional player-mostly West andSouthwest U.S. and Hawaii.

• Not looking to go national.• Mostly Tier II and Tier III cities.

• Target SMBs business-between2 to 200 access lines.

• Continue to serve wholesale and retail businesses.

• Sales force approx. 290• Focus on customer care and

“holding-the-hand” of the customer.

E-spire • Southeast and Southwest U.S.• Tier II and III cities.• Accelerating roll out in 98.

• Targeting small to mediumbusinesses spending.

• Targets firms in professional services,health care, gov’t, and financialservices.

• No interest in residential.

• Sales and Marketing staff grewfrom 56 people in 1996 to 277 people in 1997.

USN • Regional focus - Midwest, New England, and Mid Atlantic.

• All TRS based.

• Target businesses with 2-10 businesslines.

• Focus on providing full bundles andsuperior customer service.

• Direct Sales focus.• Sales force grew from 206

in 1996 to 426 in 1997.

Geographic service area Key Customer Focus Sales Organization

Page 21: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Key Market Trends and Influences Affecting the CLEC Market

Wall Street

Deregulation

Mergers and Acquisitions

Alliances and Partnerships

Integrating the product portfolio

Network Build-out

Growth- Can they sustain their current growth and will they be able to manage and survive their growth

Page 22: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Wall Street and Deregulation

Wall Street

Pressure to show profit- EBIDTA positive

None of the CLECs EBIDTA positive except for TCG

Wall Street looking for a return on investments

Push towards deployment of success-based capital

Deregulation

Telecom Reform Act of 1996

Required the RBOCs to open the local markets via resale, UNE and facilities based

Competition in the business market. Cherry-picking the profitable customers. Residential markets have seen very little to any competition.

Page 23: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Deregulation (Continued) 8th Circuit court interconnection rulings

Removed the ILECs burden of recombining UNEs and placed that burden on the competing carrier. Ruling now under consideration by the Supreme Court.

Interconnection pricing in the hands of the state regulatory commissions. Leaves competition fragmented and makes a national TSR or UNE local entry strategy difficult.

RBOCs into Long Distance

RBOCs need to meet 14 point checklist to gain entry into in-region Long Distance,

FCC vs. SBC granted RBOCs the ability to immediately enter in-region. Overturned on appeal.

RBOCS plannin ressive attack of the in-region long distance market. Expecting to take most market share in the small and medium business market and the consumer market.

Page 24: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Mergers / Acquisitions and Alliances / Partnerships

CLECs are positioning themselves both to be acquired or to acquire. Are the CLECs looking for an exit strategy?

Acquisitions, alliances, and partnerships have allowed for quick, lower-cost entry into new markets

Large IXCs continue to look to the “CAPs turned CLECs” as an access alternative to the ILECs

Internet’s demand for dedicated access, the call for alternatives to the PSTN, and the lure of the ISP retail business have driven many CLECs to acquire ISPs

ICG/Netcom, Intermedia/Digex, MFS/UUNET, TCG/Cerfnet, RCN/ UltraNEt and Erols

Challenge is integrating acquisitions. Importance of a seamless entity to customers

Page 25: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Network Build-out: Expansion Today; Growth Tomorrow

Still in the Build Out Stage for Most CLECs;

Many Are Expanding Into New Cities, Others Are Consolidating their existing networks to Ensure Seamless Regional corridors

Third Tier Cities Now the Focus of New CLEC Opportunities (i.e., Cities With 750,000 Population or Less); Tier 1 and many Tier 2 cities saturated

Move into Switched Services & Long Distance helping to achieve profitability and positive cash flow while traditional CAP segment faces threat from IXC acquisitions

Page 26: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Network Build-out: Expansion Today; Growth Tomorrow (Continued)

Yankee Group Forecasts More MFS-Style Exit Strategies for facilities-based CLECs. Network build-out is expensive and it is less expensive to buy the networks

Move towards 3rd generation CLECs- dropping in switches and leasing the fiber between the switches. Allows for a faster turn-up time and generation of positive cash flow. CLECs to look for in this category include: US LEC; Allegiance; and Focal

Page 27: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Network Expansion: Growing CLEC Switch Deployment

100

210

320

410

520600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Nu

mb

er o

f S

wit

ches

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Installed Base,Switches

Page 28: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Can the CLECs Survive Growth?

Managing Growth

Customer Growth- can they meet customer expectations and demand

Market Growth- Are they going too fast too quickly? Do they have the resources to maintain their current pace or are they trying to be everything to everyone? Example being US ONE which crashed and burned

Ensuring Quality while Maintaining Growth

Leased Networks

Manage unbundled elements- need to own the customer end-to-end and control the customer’s entire experience

Talent: Finite number of talented people in the industry

Page 29: Telecommunications Industry Brief

CLEC revenues EXCLUDES MFS & MCImetro (MFS and MCImetro included in IXCs); revenues for dial tone ONLY,EULC, taxes, and toll are not included

Local Exchange Market - 2000$44 billion

CLECs3.6%

IXCs7.4%

ILECs88.9%

Page 30: Telecommunications Industry Brief

CLEC Market Dynamics 36 to 48 Months

Multiple facilities-based CLECs in major Tier 1 and 2 cities

Tier 3 cities offer some growth opportunity

UNEs widely available

RBOCs have gained In-region LD relief

Technology increases bandwidth

Potential for oversupply of inventory

Bandwidth & Exchange prices fall

CLECs Employing Exit Strategies

Increased IXC / ILEC Partnerships

Page 31: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Long Distance Market

Page 32: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Business= 54%Residential= 46%

1997 Long Distance: The $86.7 Billion Market

Residential

46%

Data

4%

Other

1%

Carrier Services

5%

Wholesale

6%

VPN

4%

Private Line

10%

Outbound

9%

Inbound

15%

Page 33: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Grew approx. 10.9% from 1996

1997 Business Long Distance: $46.7 billion

Inbound

29%

Other

2%

Data

8%

Carrier

Services

9%

Wholesale

11%

VPN

7%

Private Line

18%

Outbound

16%

Page 34: Telecommunications Industry Brief

11.9

7.2 7.4

3.5

4.8

2.95

13.3

7.58.6

3.5

5.1

3.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Inbound Outbound Private Line VPN Wholesale Data

$ in bn

1996 1997

Key Segment Growth (1996-97)

Page 35: Telecommunications Industry Brief

AT&T51.3%

MCI23.2%

Sprint11.4%

WorldCom10.2%

Others3.9%

The Big 2 = ~85%

Business Long-Distance Market Shares (1996)

Page 36: Telecommunications Industry Brief

AT&T: Consolidations and Acquisitions, in defense of the core business

Divesting non- core assets and businesses

AT&T Universal Card to Citibank

AT&T Solutions customer care to Cincinnati Bell

Termination of Direct TV marketing agreement

Acquires TCG and Defines Local Business Entry Strategy

Paid $ 11.3 billion in stock

Time to market a key factor in influencing the acquisition decision

AT&T gains Cost efficiencies, Local network coverage, and Local market experience

TCG gains scale, access to the AT&T brand, and easier access to capital and other resources

Page 37: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Sprint: Looking for Partners?

With MCIWorldCom merger, Sprint falls further behind

Existing Local properties not all that attractive

However, with its LD brand, Wireless assets, and local presence, it is well positioned to partner or merge with: LECs with national ambitions Foreign PTTs that are seeking a US presence

WorldCom acquires MCI to become the leading integrated carrier

MCI spurns GTE and leaves BT standing at the altar

Overnight, MCIWorldCom becomes: the second largest LD carrier with 25% share the largest CLEC, with 56% share the leading global ISP Fourth largest international telco

Page 38: Telecommunications Industry Brief

WorldCom and MCI– A comparison

Long Distance • $7 Billion Annual revenue (1997)• former Wiltel wholesale LD

• $16.5 billion annual revenue (1996)• $7.06 billion in consumer revenue• 9.4 million households

Local • Estimated 1996 CLEC revenues of $1.9 bn• 52 MFS Metros• 34 Brooks Metros• 23 markets under development• 7500 on-net buildings (est)• 75 Class 5 switches• 25% of all competitive access lines

• CLEC (Metro) Revenue of $450 million• Presence in 36 cities• Local switched service in 32 cities• 30 Class 5 switches

Assets WorldCom MCI

Page 39: Telecommunications Industry Brief

WorldCom and MCI– A Comparison

Internet • UUNet, largest global ISP• 50,000 business customers (access and

hosting)• Compuserve Network Services• ANS ISP• Provides transport to America Online,

Earthlink, Microsoft Network• $500 million in Internet Revenue

• 400,000 dial-up customers• Private wholesale services to 25-35%

of all ISPs.• $200 million estimated revenue• Sold to C&W as part of EU approval

International • 60 settlement agreements globally• $470 million in revenues• Metro infrastructure in 12 cities• UUNet’s European backbone in 10 cities

• 200 settlement agreements globally• Licenses in UK, Germany• Top bid on Embratel

WorldCom MCI

Wireless • Choicecom• Few of its other LD or CLEC acquisitions

have major wireless play

• Holds on wireless licenses• Nationwide Cellular Services (a reseller)• Operates in 15-20 markets• 400,000 subscribers• Paging reseller (through PagNet),

over 600k subs.

Page 40: Telecommunications Industry Brief

RBOCs into Long Distance

Page 41: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Telecom Act of 1996New Competitive Telecom Services Market

“An act to promote competition and reduce regulation in order to secure lower prices and higher quality services for American telecommunications consumers and encourage the rapid deployment of new telecommunications technologies” IXCs, Cable and CAPs Allowed to Enter Local Exchange

IXCs with more than 5% of the nations presubscribed lines is not able to joint market local and long distance services until RBOCs are granted in-region relief

Mandated LEC Resale at Fair and Reasonable Prices RBOCs Enter Out-of-Region Long Distance immediately RBOCs Open Local Markets in Exchange for In-Region Long Distance

Pressure of New Integrated Telecom MarketBeyond Resale/Bundling to Service Innovation

Page 42: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Leveraging Established Customer Relationshipsto Provide New Services

RBOC Entry into Long Distance

Ameritech • Announced it will begin offering long distance in Missouri;

• Marketing Alliance with Qwest (in-region)

Offering Services

Approved Services

WholesaleSupplier

• 45 States • WorldCom

In-regionLaunch

• 1999

Bell Atlantic /NYNEX

• 34 States • 34 States and plans to file in Minnesota and Oklahoma

• Sprint • 1998?

Bell South ----- • 39 states and applications pending in Vermont and Alaska

• AT&T • 1999

SBC / PacTel • 5 States • Sprint • 1999• 5 States

US WEST • NONE• Marketing Alliance

with Qwest (in-region)

• 34 States • FrontierCard

• Williams?• Qwest?

• 1999

Page 43: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Biggest Hurdle for the RBOCsOSS Access and Interconnection

Required under the Act

ILEC must provide access to its OSSs on terms that are just reasonable, and non discriminatory

RBOCs have been frustrated in their 271 applications by OSS issues:

Not able to show flow through of orders and service transactions from CLECs

Push for National Gateway in some quarters, but who pays the bill?

Call for Standards by many parties (NARUC, ATIS, etc.)

Manual processes pre te

Page 44: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Conclusions

Nice try but too early. Not likely to make first-round approval based on Track A (of two tracks) benchmarks

Lack of ‘competing providers to residential and business subscribers’ by companies that ‘offer services predominantly over their own telephone service facilities’

Competition and interconnect deals are with competitors that are focused on business

AT&T, has stopped marketing to residential customers in the six markets where it resells ILEC services to the residential market

the Yankee Group believes that the first approval for RBOC entry into in-region LD will be around 4Q98 or early 99. BANY is most likely to succeed

Page 45: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Integrated Carrier Strategies

& Large Business

Market Issues

Page 46: Telecommunications Industry Brief

source: YC100 1996

Do Large Biz Customers Care About Service Integration?

If Given A Choice:

70% of Businesses Say They Would Use One Company for All Their Communication Needs

Key Reasons:

Less Effort to Manage the Network 68%

One Stop Shopping 62%

Lower Costs 59%

Page 47: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Source: YG WSTA Survey 1996

How important to the purchasing decision are the following factors? 5= very important 1 = not important

…but Price isn’t Everything

4.8 4.7

4.2 4.2 4.1

1

2

3

4

5Service quality

Carrier responsiveness

Pricing

Ease of doing business

Service in majorlocations

Page 48: Telecommunications Industry Brief

AT&T MCI MFS Worldcom Sprint

One Rate/TrueValue BundlesAT&T.All

MCI OneFriends & Family

Worldcom Sprint Sense

TCG and TCIDigital LinkProject Angel?

MCI Local MFSBrooks Fiber

Sprint LocalIONBroadband MANs

WorldNet Internet MCI UUNET Sprint InternetPassport

AT&T WirelessCellular/PCS,Alpha/2-wayPaging

NationwideCellular, NextwavePCS, AlphaPaging

Choice Cellular Sprint SpectrumPCSAlpha Paging

800, Network ACD,SDN,500 True Conn.,Voice Messaging

800, Network ACDVNet, Vision,MCI One,Voice Messaging

800, VPN 800, Network IVR,VPN, Voice Act.Dialing, VoiceMessaging

TCIOther CableCos?

Primestar/NewsCorp??

? NA

Brand

Local

Internet

Wireless

Video

Enhanced Telephony

Long Distance Integrated Carriers

Page 49: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Wholesale Services

Page 50: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Wholesale

All facilities based LD carriers, whether they are national or regional in nature wholesale LD services to each other, to smaller carriers and to resellers

Over time, the four largest LD carriers have increased their revenue contribution from the wholesale channels

Frontier’s agreement to sell capacity to Level 3 is an example of the renewed focus on wholesale by smaller LD carriers such as C&W and LCI

Page 51: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Wholesale (Continued)

New entrants such as Qwest, IXC, Williams and Level 3 will expand the wholesale market but will also put significant price pressure on wholesale rates

New services such as IP, and new entrants in local and LD market are expected to feed the demand for wholesale service

We estimate the wholesale market to be around $ 8.3 billion

Page 52: Telecommunications Industry Brief

ELDP Diversification Strategies

IXC Communications

in addition to carrier’s carrier services, offering switched, freephone, calling card and data services

Looking to acquire smaller retail players

Qwest Communications

direct retail plays through VoIP, dial-around

acquisitions of LCI, SuperNet

looking to enter the large corporate market

Williams Companies

leverage already large network integration business

Level 3 Communications

purchased Data CLEC XCOM

Page 53: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Voice Over Whatever:Demand for Alternative

Voice Services

Page 54: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Considering26%

Deployed

31%

In Next 6

Months14%

Not Likely29%

Fax12%

Voice36%

Both52%

Fax14%

Voice20%

Both66%

Fax32%

Voice19%

Both49%

Key Issue: What is the current status of Voice Services Over Alternative Networks (TCP/IP, Frame Relay and ATM)?

Page 55: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Key Context Issue: How much data is moving over TCP/IP, Frame Relay and ATM today...

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

1 to 10

11 to 25

26 to 50

>50

% t

raff

ic

% respondents

PL Intra/ Managed Internet FR ATM

Page 56: Telecommunications Industry Brief

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1 to 10

11 to 25

26 to 50

>50

% o

f tr

affi

c

% respondents

PL Intra/ Managed Internet FR ATM

Frame Relay takes over

Key Context Issue: How much data is moving over TCP/IP, Frame Relay and ATM in 5 years...

Page 57: Telecommunications Industry Brief

0% 5% 10% 15%

1 to 10

11 to 25

26 to 50

>50

% o

f tr

affi

c

% respondents

PL Intra/ Managed Internet FR ATM

Slow migration of voice, for all services

Key Issue: How much voice traffic will migrate to VSANs over the next five years?

Page 58: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Fax keeps pace

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1 to 10

11 to 25

26 to 50

>50

% o

f tr

affi

c

% of respondents

PL Intra/ Managed Internet FR ATM

Page 59: Telecommunications Industry Brief

Key Issue: What are the reasons for choosing VSANs?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Improve Network Management

Support Multimedia

Better Bandwidth Utilization

Save Money

Page 60: Telecommunications Industry Brief

IP Telephony MOUs as a Percentage of Total Consumer MOUs (1998-2005)

0.4 0.81.9

3.5

79

12

15

02468

10121416

% of LD MOUs

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005